TBLeafer said:
How close to being accurate do you personally think his timelines are?
I don't have the foggiest idea. I've never really looked into WAR(at least, not the hockey version) but I'm pretty suspicious of it as being a particularly good single-value stat given that it's not more widespread.
That said my immediate take-away from the article is that once you look at the charts you
didn post, the ones that factor in the defense corps, you get a very different idea of what he's saying and one that goes more to the general unease some people have put forth about being full steam ahead:
Now let?s add all seven pieces together and see how they stack up. I omitted Rielly from this because his projection was negative, and if that is the case over the next five years, he?s not the number one guy anyways. For now, it?s a blank space, and any difference between the total core value and the average Cup contender?s core value (about 15 WAR) is roughly how good Rielly or whoever else becomes the number one d-man has to be.
So by using this method the Leafs Core WAR, forwards and defense(with Stamkos), still doesn't get them to average contender levels by 2021. So I don't know that I see it as all that rosy a projection.