The Shanaplan - Building the Leafs Toward Stanley Cup Contention

[CML]

Everyone raises Edm as an example of how not to conduct a rebuild. 

One team I find particularly interesting that doesn?t get much attention is Colorado.  Are there any lessons for the ?Shanaplan? from the recent history of the Avs?

The Avs have highly touted forwards from the top of the draft (Duchene #3 in 2009, Landeskog #2 in 2011 and Mackinnon #1 in 2013).  From a draft ranking perspective, that?s even better than Marner (#4), Nylander (#8) and Matthews (#1). 

Yet no one believes that the Avs are a Stanley Cup contender or even on the cusp of joining the league?s upper echelon.  Having that many high end draft choices is no guarantee that a contender is around the corner, or even that your team will consistently make the playoffs.

Some theories on where the Avs went wrong:

1. They used too many high draft picks on forwards and neglected defence and goaltending.  The Avs haven?t drafted a D in the 1st round since 2008 (Cameron Gaunce).  (Exacerbated by the fact that they may need to jettison their best D, Tyson Barrie).
 
2. You?ve got to hit on some later round picks.  They have no depth to complement Duchene, Landeskog and MacKinnon.  As with Edm, they haven?t hit on anything outside of the 1st round in a long time.

3. Patience ? maybe we just need to give them more time?  MacKinnon could elevate his play to another level and maybe Mikko Rantanen is the real deal?
 
4. Hiring local heros and ex-players (Roy, Sakic) to run a team is a bad idea (see also: MacTavish, Kevin Lowe).

5. Failed to hang onto home grown talent ? letting go of Ryan O?Reilly and Kevin Shattenkirk has not panned out. 

It just goes to show that you can have picks consistently at the top of the draft and still screw up a rebuild pretty easily.  The Avs are almost as egregious as the Oilers in my opinion.  Any other lessons that Shanny and Co could take from the Avs?

Nice first post.

I wouldn't go that far.  They are only 2 years removed from 1st in their Division with 112 points.  They as it stands right now are only 2 seasons removed from playoffs.  They're another season or two away from actually finding out if Roy is building his team poorly.  The Lightning yo-yo'd since drafting Stamkos for quite a few seasons before finding playoff consistency and annual contention.  I wouldn't put them in Oiler territory yet.

They could turn things around like Yzerman did in Tampa.  Or they could end up like Nieuwendyk in Dallas.  My money's on the latter.  Even with three top 3 picks in the span of 5 years (who should all now be entering their primes), their ceiling just seems like a league average team at best.  Kinda scary.  Makes me happy that the Leafs have kept some talent around like Kadri and JVR to slot in with the kids so hopefully we can ice a deeper line up when our kids are ready.   

 

[TBLeafer]

Everyone raises Edm as an example of how not to conduct a rebuild. 

One team I find particularly interesting that doesn?t get much attention is Colorado.  Are there any lessons for the ?Shanaplan? from the recent history of the Avs?

The Avs have highly touted forwards from the top of the draft (Duchene #3 in 2009, Landeskog #2 in 2011 and Mackinnon #1 in 2013).  From a draft ranking perspective, that?s even better than Marner (#4), Nylander (#8) and Matthews (#1). 

Yet no one believes that the Avs are a Stanley Cup contender or even on the cusp of joining the league?s upper echelon.  Having that many high end draft choices is no guarantee that a contender is around the corner, or even that your team will consistently make the playoffs.

Some theories on where the Avs went wrong:

1. They used too many high draft picks on forwards and neglected defence and goaltending.  The Avs haven?t drafted a D in the 1st round since 2008 (Cameron Gaunce).  (Exacerbated by the fact that they may need to jettison their best D, Tyson Barrie).
 
2. You?ve got to hit on some later round picks.  They have no depth to complement Duchene, Landeskog and MacKinnon.  As with Edm, they haven?t hit on anything outside of the 1st round in a long time.

3. Patience ? maybe we just need to give them more time?  MacKinnon could elevate his play to another level and maybe Mikko Rantanen is the real deal?
 
4. Hiring local heros and ex-players (Roy, Sakic) to run a team is a bad idea (see also: MacTavish, Kevin Lowe).

5. Failed to hang onto home grown talent ? letting go of Ryan O?Reilly and Kevin Shattenkirk has not panned out. 

It just goes to show that you can have picks consistently at the top of the draft and still screw up a rebuild pretty easily.  The Avs are almost as egregious as the Oilers in my opinion.  Any other lessons that Shanny and Co could take from the Avs?

Nice first post.

I wouldn't go that far.  They are only 2 years removed from 1st in their Division with 112 points.  They as it stands right now are only 2 seasons removed from playoffs.  They're another season or two away from actually finding out if Roy is building his team poorly.  The Lightning yo-yo'd since drafting Stamkos for quite a few seasons before finding playoff consistency and annual contention.  I wouldn't put them in Oiler territory yet.

They could turn things around like Yzerman did in Tampa.  Or they could end up like Nieuwendyk in Dallas.  My money's on the latter.  Even with three top 3 picks in the span of 5 years (who should all now be entering their primes), their ceiling just seems like a league average team at best.  Kinda scary.  Makes me happy that the Leafs have kept some talent around like Kadri and JVR to slot in with the kids so hopefully we can ice a deeper line up when our kids are ready.  

Exactly.  Plus all bad contracts save Lupul are either cleared out already, or will clear out by the end of the season.  Lupul's is 2017/18. The Leafs are in excellent shape financially after this season.  They should have no problem keeping the players they want to keep.

 

[herman]

Welcome, CML!

 

[Highlander]

Hey CML, welcome to the board and thanks for your insights, I really think we need as much new blood on this board as everyones point of view can be interesting, so I think we all should invite at least one friend of ours to join us in this mad pursuit of Leaf perfection or as close to perfection as we can get.