Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Coco-puffs]

Yeah, it would be tight, but if they really have aspirations of contending, I think they need to address that issue. Maybe I'm wrong and one of Jake or Morgan slips in there, but I'm thinking not yet, certainly on the defensive end of things.

They need to be patient too, the Leafs aren't one year away from contending. I think Rielly is going to be a steal two years from now and a big cap hit in three, hopefully worth every penny... maybe it's Jake that takes a step up next year, I think it's his turn but if not the Leafs should really remain as calm as possible here...

This.

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis either trades Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter.

Gardiner isn't a rookie and has 154 games in the league, and Gardiner has the best possession rating among Leafs D, meaning he's driving play better than the rest of the D.  Gardiner isn't a problem.

Yet, Gardiner is a -4.  In comparison, the worst defenseman possession-wise is Carl Gunnarsson... and he's a +16 on the season.  Second worst is Phaneuf, and he's a +13.  BTW, Morgan Reilly is a -12 on the season, and almost has the same possession ratings as Gardiner.

Obviously, this shows how the quality of the chances is missed entirely in the calculation of shot-based possession statistics.  Using them as a way to say Jake Gardiner is not a problem is, well, problematic.  He still makes mistakes that young defensemen tend to make.  So does Franson, and so does Reilly.  Those errors are typically more glaring and end up in the back of our net.

Why should +/- tell me any of those things?  Using +/- to say Gardiner makes 'typically more glaring' errors that end up in the back of the Leafs net is somehow a better way to judge him?  Or is that just your eye test?  And you've compared all the other D and determined that Gardiner makes 'typically more glaring errors'?

Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are both riding high SH% at 5 on 5 - 11 and 10%, while Gardiner's is down at 7.6%.  All are getting on-ice SV% of .930-ish.  The last full season, Phaneuf's SH% was 7.3%, the on-ice SV% was .911 and he was a -10.  The last full season, Gardiner's SH% was 10%, on-ice SV% was .904 and he was a -2.

See how SH% fluctuates?  Did Phaneuf suddenly do something to bump up his SH%? Gardiner to drop it?  +/- will go up and down depending on luck such as this - neither player was worse because the goaltending in '11-'12 was not as good as today, but it affected Phaneuf's +/-, just like Gardiner not getting the breaks and having a 7.6 SH% this season compared to 10% in '11-'12 is contributing to his.

At 5 on 5, Gardiner has been on the ice for more goals for than against.  Overall, Gardiner has been on the ice for more goals for than against (59 to 51) and the 51 goals against when Gardiner is on the ice is the lowest among Leafs D who have played at least 1000 mins, and Gardiner has played the 2nd most minutes among D.  At 5 on 5, Gardiner has played the most minutes on the entire team yet has again been on the ice for the least number of goals against by D with 1000 mins.

Where are you getting your stats from?  Tell me, if Gardiner is a -4 on the season, but according to your stats, is a +8 5on5, he's a -12 combined when on the PP, 4on4, or 3on3?  That seems rather odd.

I'll give you the on ice shooting percentage helps inflate Phaneuf and Gunnarsson's +/-.  But I'll raise you: compare their defensive zone starts and quality of competition.  Phaneuf and Gunnarsson have much harder jobs to do against better players from the opposing team.  Gardiner is not reliable enough to be put in those situations YET.  Unfortunately, its taking a little bit more time for him to develop the defensive side of his game than we have all hoped.  The rest of his game is pretty exciting offensively- once we get the puck, he really does help facilitate the offence with his speed and vision (and it would be nice if the forwards he's on the ice with would finish at a higher rate).  But, once the puck is turned over, I've seen bad pinches lead to 2 on 1's the other way- the glaring errors I'm talking about.  The other two guys we've mentioned as a comparison above don't do that as often. 

Furthermore, the "last full season" stats you are bringing up was 2 years ago.  I was talking about play THIS season.  Two years ago means little to me today, as the team has undergone considerable change since then, including a coaching change and quite a few players. 

 

[Champ Kind]

Let's get this thread back on track, shall we?

Trade Phanoof!1!  Kessel suks again!!111!!!  We should have never traded Coalbouarne!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[bustaheims]

Where are you getting your stats from?  Tell me, if Gardiner is a -4 on the season, but according to your stats, is a +8 5on5, he's a -12 combined when on the PP, 4on4, or 3on3?  That seems rather odd.

I'm pretty sure the overall goals for/against includes PP goals, not just 5 on 5.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Where are you getting your stats from?  Tell me, if Gardiner is a -4 on the season, but according to your stats, is a +8 5on5, he's a -12 combined when on the PP, 4on4, or 3on3?  That seems rather odd.

I'm pretty sure the overall goals for/against includes PP goals, not just 5 on 5.

http://www.extraskater.com/player/624/jake-gardiner#on-ice

And behindthenet.ca tells me he's been on the ice for 3 SH goals against when on the PP, and there are no stats for it that I've seen but I assume he's been on the ice for some either 4v3 SH goals or 4 on 4 goals against.

 

[bustaheims]

http://www.extraskater.com/player/624/jake-gardiner#on-ice

And behindthenet.ca tells me he's been on the ice for 3 SH goals against when on the PP, and there are no stats for it that I've seen but I assume he's been on the ice for some either 4v3 SH goals or 4 on 4 goals against.

I imagine the difference actually probably comes from being on the ice for a couple EN goals against, as they shouldn't be included in 5 on 5 totals.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://www.extraskater.com/player/624/jake-gardiner#on-ice

And behindthenet.ca tells me he's been on the ice for 3 SH goals against when on the PP, and there are no stats for it that I've seen but I assume he's been on the ice for some either 4v3 SH goals or 4 on 4 goals against.

I imagine the difference actually probably comes from being on the ice for a couple EN goals against, as they shouldn't be included in 5 on 5 totals.

Hadn't even thought of those, you're probably right.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Where are you getting your stats from?  Tell me, if Gardiner is a -4 on the season, but according to your stats, is a +8 5on5, he's a -12 combined when on the PP, 4on4, or 3on3?  That seems rather odd.

I'm pretty sure the overall goals for/against includes PP goals, not just 5 on 5.

http://www.extraskater.com/player/624/jake-gardiner#on-ice

And behindthenet.ca tells me he's been on the ice for 3 SH goals against when on the PP, and there are no stats for it that I've seen but I assume he's been on the ice for some either 4v3 SH goals or 4 on 4 goals against.

Well, the numbers you quoted earlier (59 to 51) is ALL situations.  5 on 5, he's 39 GF, 38 GA. 

Here are the relevant numbers 5on5:

Player  Mins  GF  GA  Sh%  SV%  QoC  QoT
Jake    1124  39  38  7.6    94.0  28.0  26.3
Reilly  893  37  44  8.9    91.8  27.7  27.7
Cody  1012  38  44  8.4    92.6  28.6  28.2
Paul    686  23  26  7.7    93.5  27.7  26.8
Dion    1093  54  40  11.4  93.7  30.2  29.2
Carl    1049  48  38  10.7  93.6  30.1  30.6

So what can we gather from that data?

1.  Dion and Carl quite clearly face the highest QoC (Dion is 9th in the league, 34+ GP).  But, they also play with the Leafs best players (QoT).  This is not surprising, many defensive zone faceoffs against the opposition top line includes the Bozak line with Dion/Carl.  Therefore, their Sh% isn't quite so surprising, playing often with the Bozak line who tend to bury their chances at an alarmingly high rate.  (BTW, Bozak is 6th in the league QoC wise, 34+ GP)

2.  Jake has the lowest QoT of all Leafs defenseman.  He's often out there with the Leafs 3rd/4th lines.  No wonder his On-Ice Sh% is quite a bit lower than Dion/Carl.  He's clearly facing the other teams lower lines as well (lower QoC than the top pair). 

Looking more at the stats, Gardiner and Phaneuf have been on the ice for almost an equal amount of shots against (631 vs 636).  Both of them have almost the exact same percentage of Defensive zone starts (38%).  That's pretty much a wash, except Dion is doing it against a higher QoC.  Gardiner's possession numbers are better because his shots for is 531 vs Dion's 473.  So yes, he's definitely helping generate more shots, but he certainly isn't doing a whole lot to prevent shots against either- especially with a lower QoC to face.

In fact, Morgan Reilly has almost he same possession stats as Jake, but he clearly has had a harder time defensively (-7 GF/GA 5on5).  But, I'm not worried about Morgan, he's going to make rookie mistakes.  I'm actually impressed with the progress he's made (in '13 he was a -10, in '14 he's just a -2).  Cody Franson is third in possession stats amongst Leafs defenseman, yet he's probably in the same boat as Morgan in terms of needing to improve defensively- and he's not a 20 year old rookie.

So, you are right Jake isn't a "problem" compared to everyone else- NOTE, I never said he was either, I just pointed out that the possession stat that you used to state he wasn't a problem has flaws.  Our 2nd and 3rd best defensemen possession-stats-wise also have the highest GA 5on5.  Hence, I pointed out using that stat to state he isn't a problem has flaws.  (In Jake's case, the REST of his numbers shows he isn't a problem)

You, correctly, pointed out that the +/- stat I pulled out has some flaws as well.  Dion and Carl have definitely benefited from playing with the Bozak line to have so many GF 5on5.  Their GA 5on5 is about the same as Jake's, against some of the highest QoC in the league with similar minutes.  My point is, Jake is clearly not at their level defensively even if the +/- stats I used are skewed by QoT.

Overall, this team is just terrible possession wise.  What needs to change for that to improve?  A few things I already mentioned in my previous post:  Being more assertive on the puck in the defensive zone (without being too aggressive where we get caught out of position and give up better scoring chances) and a heck of a lot better at cycling the puck in the offensive zone. 

 

[princedpw]

But at what expense? I don't think this team is talented enough as is, to add a deep defensive game to its repertoire and still put up the type of offense that is helping them win games this year. And, is it worth the risk of it drying up the offense for an 'average defense' as you put it?

This team will find its defensive game in time. Nonis will tweak the D, the youngsters will mature, and they will get better. What's the hurry anyways? This team won't be ready to challenge for at least 2-3 more years. That sounds just about right for all the things Ive mentioned to take place.

Do you honestly believe that a better defensive game, led by an aggressive puck pursuit that forces turnovers will negatively impact the offence? Will having the puck more lead to them somehow scoring less? I'm pretty sure that's not the way it works. No one here is suggesting they play the trap or anything like that. They're already playing a passive defensive system. It's not working for them. Another passive system isn't going to help. Having an average defensive performance, with the goaltending they're getting, would put them in the top 8 in terms of goals against. Instead, they're down near the bottom.

As for the hurry . . . well, the hurry comes from not wanting to see the team sacrifice some of its top young players to bring in guys that are more "Carlyle types." There's enough talk about Carlyle not being particularly enamoured with Kadri and Gardiner that should worry anyone that him sticking around will lead to them being moved out to "tweak the D" in a futile effort to make Carlyle's flawed system (a system that showed the very same flaws in the final few seasons of his tenure in Anaheim) somehow successful. I don't want Nonis to tweak the D for Carlyle's system. I want the strategies to be fixed before the talent is addressed, because, right now, the strategies are the biggest problem. This team is on pace to be among the worst in the history of the league when it comes to shots allowed. They're expansion team bad on the defensive side of the puck, and they're much more talented than that.

This is a great discussion by the way.  Thanks!

I have to admit that earlier in the year, I was hoping the Leafs would truly bottom out and thereby force Nonis in to firing Carlyle so we could reset the global team strategy.  It's hard to hope for a tank-job now that they are so close to the playoffs.

The team defense does seem to be getting worse and worse since Wilson left while the goaltending and many of the core individual players are young and moving in to or through their prime and hence should be getting better.  The big flaw last year was we weren't able to hold a lead in game 7 against the Bruins.  Some people said we "choked" but we didn't choke --- we just played the way we normally play, which is to let the other guys pound you in to submission while you play turtle in the defensive zone.  Losing because you play the same way you normally do isn't choking; it's just being a not-so-great team.  And we are continuing to play that way this year.  We have incredible goaltending and yet have apparently blown 22 leads in the third period this year!  22!  In other words, every 3rd game we play we get a lead and blow it!  I apologize for the unnecessary exclamation marks but you know Einstein's theory about insanity:  It is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

It's hard to see how we will be able to maximize our talents with the stubborn Carlyle at the helm.  He hasn't been able to make our defense one ounce better than when he started with the team.  He's had a couple of years to do it.  He needs to be fired, even if it is only to hire another guy who may or may not be able to improve our defense.  At this point, we just need to do the experiment that involves switching our coaches around to see if that helps or if it really is the players who are completely hopeless.  Pay Hitchcock $40 million to get his butt over on to our bench.  MLSE has the cash.  (Yes, tampering, blah, blah, blah.) 

 

[Kin]

I apologize for the unnecessary exclamation marks but you know Einstein's theory about insanity:  It is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

That's not actually something he said. I think it's from some self-help book in the 80's to try and get people to quit smoking.

Anyways, the Leafs record when leading after 2 isn't bad.

 

[Bullfrog]

In fact, Morgan Reilly has almost he same possession stats as Jake, but he clearly has had a harder time defensively (-7 GF/GA 5on5).  But, I'm not worried about Morgan, he's going to make rookie mistakes.  I'm actually impressed with the progress he's made (in '13 he was a -10, in '14 he's just a -2).  Cody Franson is third in possession stats amongst Leafs defenseman, yet he's probably in the same boat as Morgan in terms of needing to improve defensively- and he's not a 20 year old rookie.

Sometimes I forget how young he is. The fact he's doing so well is very impressive.

 

[Tigger]

Its actually both. Team defense starts with individuals that can consistently win the battles along the boards and keep the puck out of their own end. Those battles start with the D needing to win the majority of them, then the forwards helping out when needed. But having a few guys unable to do the initial work puts too much pressure on everyone else to do it for them.

Actually, team defence starts with puck possession and keeping the puck out of the defensive end, which falls on everyone, but, predominantly, the forwards. They're the ones that need to win more puck battles. Not in the defensive end, but in the offensive one. That's how you keep shots against - and, consequently, goals against - down. The team needs to force the other team to make mistakes with the puck, and that also starts in the offensive end, with an aggressive forecheck that forces the other team to make rushed decisions and poor choices, and leads to turnovers in the Leafs' favour. The best defence isn't played in the defensive zone.

That may be why a guy like Clarkson was brought in ( failed attempt ) but ( and ) it really isn't a strength of the Leaf forwards. The Leafs are a rush/transition team, not a forechecking team, no cycle for the most part.

As for the hurry . . . well, the hurry comes from not wanting to see the team sacrifice some of its top young players to bring in guys that are more "Carlyle types." There's enough talk about Carlyle not being particularly enamoured with Kadri and Gardiner that should worry anyone that him sticking around will lead to them being moved out to "tweak the D" in a futile effort to make Carlyle's flawed system (a system that showed the very same flaws in the final few seasons of his tenure in Anaheim) somehow successful. I don't want Nonis to tweak the D for Carlyle's system. I want the strategies to be fixed before the talent is addressed, because, right now, the strategies are the biggest problem. This team is on pace to be among the worst in the history of the league when it comes to shots allowed. They're expansion team bad on the defensive side of the puck, and they're much more talented than that.

There's no hurry but what we put upon it, the players that really should be untouchable barring treasure in exchange are Rielly, Gardiner and Kadri, obviously Kessel too, and to a degree Phaneuf. I kind of doubt Nonis is going to worry about acquiring 'Carlyle types' too much when it comes to those players, especially if Carlyle had any real input into the Clarkson contract.

Fwiw, any NHL team that isn't able to implement a fairly simple defensive plan is inherently weak, also, the Leafs can't cycle in the offensive zone.

 

[bustaheims]

Fwiw, any NHL team that isn't able to implement a fairly simple defensive plan is inherently weak, also, the Leafs can't cycle in the offensive zone.

FWIW, players who have played in Carlyle's system have commented on it being anything but simple.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Fwiw, any NHL team that isn't able to implement a fairly simple defensive plan is inherently weak, also, the Leafs can't cycle in the offensive zone.

FWIW, players who have played in Carlyle's system have commented on it being anything but simple.

And regarding the cycling, let/got rid of two of the team's best cycle players in Grabovski/MacArthur.  Not surprisingly, two of the better possession guys.

 

[AvroArrow]

Blow it up.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Blow it up.

Keep the first line, Gards, Kadri, Berny and Mo,

 

[AvroArrow]

Blow it up.

Keep the first line, Gards, Kadri, Berny and Mo,

Pretty much, yeah.

 

[Hampreacher]

Why does Carlyle stick with his system. He needs to adapt to the style his team has. They are more offensive minded defensemen. You adapt to what you have. I think you need to fire the coach and hire another even as a temporary coach for balance of season and let them coach. We are not going to make the  playoffs with Carlyles style. Who knows a different bench boss might fire them up. They have the talent to be a playoff team. What have they to lose?

 

[Redleaf]

Blow it up.

Keep the first line, Gards, Kadri, Berny and Mo,

Pretty much, yeah.

If that's the route were going, might as well throw Kadri into the mix. He's one guy in that group that might net a half decent return. I'd target someone like Ryan O,Reilly. (Plays hard and is defensively sound). Add a few mobile stay-at-home D, and fill in spots from the farm.

BTW, I'd also keep Kule, Gunnarson and Bolland for a little toughness and veteran presence.

 

[Boston Leaf]

I'd let McClement walk.. He has regressed big time

 

[Redleaf]

I'd let McClement walk.. He has regressed big time

It's funny, I was thinking the same thing about him lately, until I saw him play live last night. He had an impressive game and was noticeable, for all the right reasons.