WCF: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Vegas is not going to be denied

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

MacKinnon didn't even know where he was.

 

[cw]

MacKinnon didn't even know where he was.

Was hurt blocking a shot.
He did come back and and left around 16? min mark of the 2nd.
He then played a bit in the 3rd and the latter part of the third but was clearly not 100%.
Makar played 27 mins.

I'm not sure it matters because it seems very unlikely that they can win 4 straight against this Vegas team.
Only one team in NHL history has lost the first two at home and then the third game and come back to win the series.
I suppose Colorado has more talent than many that tried ... Anything is possible in sports but the odds seem very slim.

I do not think this is a fluke or pure luck. From the 17 minute mark of the 3rd until a couple of minutes to go, Colorado didn't get a shot on goal. The whole series, Colorado has had almost no chances off a rush. Vegas is a big, strong, skilled and disciplined team playing very well in both ends of the ice.

Stone has been a Selke finalist twice. Marner once. Eichel was 5th in Selke voting last year. Karlsson has the best playoff +/- over the last 10 years in the league. They have four top/very good defensive forwards in their top 6. I'm trying to recall when I've seen that before. (probably have but not too often). They've held Colorado to 2.00 GAA. I think they have to be the favorite to win it all. Vegas were the favorites before this game:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2058172339615871226

 

[cw]

Media asks Coach Bednar about Vegas addition of Marner a few days ago:

2:52 "Well, they've had a lot of additions over the years in a bunch of different um uh positions and and that one for me is it's adding another dynamic elite playmaker to their lineup, you know, and not just playmaker, but goal scorer. But so this is a team that's, you know, they do everything really well. Um, really patient, really consistent, um, experienced.Um, you know, there's even games where the other team carries the game and they come out on out on top because of their patience and playmaking ability. And Martner has a lot to do with that. Power play, short-handed, five on five. He plays all situations, is dangerous in all of them. So, it's I mean, when you're adding an elite talent like Mitch Martner, it it makes you better in in all areas of the game, especially because he touches all areas of the game."

4:31 "like every game is a game seven, you know, like I got asked a bunch of questions last round. Well, you know, this is a closeout game at home. What makes it different from, you know, game one or and and the answer truly is nothing. They're all every game feels like it's game seven and that you need to win it."

Colorado coach and Cup winner Jared Bednar

Before last night's game, below shows how the odds flipped on the Avs after losing the games:

Golden Knights vs Avalanche Series Odds

Updated Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Series Odds: Can Colorado Come Back from 0-2?

Golden Knights vs Avalanche updated series odds after Vegas steals two in Denver. See Colorado's chances of coming back and Game 3 odds.

www.sportsbettingdime.com

Open:
Colorado Avalanche -280
Vegas Golden Knights +225

After Avs lose 2 games:
Colorado Avalanche +195
Vegas Golden Knights -240

After Avs lose 3rd game:
Colorado Avalanche +700
Vegas Golden Knights -1100


It is obviously much worse for Colorado now after losing game 3.
It is clear evidence of how important those first three games are.


Colorado has to win all of the next 4 games to win the series (1.000 hockey)
Apparently, that has happened only once in NHL history after the home team lost the first two and then a third. About ~5% to 7.7% chance.
Vegas has to win 1 of the next 4 games to win the series (.250 hockey) About ~92.3%-95% chance.

If Vegas wins the next one at home, there will be no games 5-7. I guess some Leafs fans might then find some solace in that Marner didn't produce in games 5-7 (because he produced in games 1-4)?

How many Colorado players would tell you their lack of points didn't matter in games 1-3 - like some Leafs fans have dismissed Marner's playoff efforts in Leafs games 1-4? I bet not a single one would remotely hint at such a thing. Colorado is in a bad hole in part because they didn't score enough in games 1-3 (only 2 goals per game vs Vegas 4 goals per game (3 empty netters)).
As coach Bednar says, every game is important if a team wants to win. They all matter. This series is a great example of that. They're all tough. Every point is hard earned. Four wins are needed. The league rules simply don't care if it is the first four or last four or something in between.