What are they worth?

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I can't think of another player that is getting so well paid at such an early time in their careers without better personal/team results.

Auston Matthews is one year removed from a 60 goal season.
Auston Matthews is one year removed from winning back 2 back Maurice Richard Trophies
Auston Matthews is one year removed from winning the Hart Trophy for NHL MVP
Auston Matthews is one year removed from being voted the MVP by his peers
Since 2016 Auston Matthews leads the league in goals. He has 12 more goals than Connor McDavid in 43 less games  in that time frame. That's good for 0.62 gpg. McDavid sits at 0.54

Only Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, Cy Denneny, Babe Dye and Pavel Bure have a higher GPG rate than Auston Matthews

Like seriously, what else can he do "personally" in his young career to prove he deserves to get paid?!?

Maybe it is due to age. Maybe it is due to not watching as much as I used to due to other things in my life. I'm not sure. I do not have the same emotional attachment to this group as some in the past. Keon, Sittler, Gilmour & Sundin's teams ... I felt more attached. But that is not a knock on this group. My priorities have changed due to those around me. I'm a little more cold blooded looking at this team.

It is through that lens I can say I have a hunk of respect for this core 5 and therefore, more time and patience. As a group (with Nylander head space not 100% on board), they have embraced trying to play in both ends of the rink. They deserve some real credit for that. They're the biggest reason the team defense improved in my opinion. They led by example. They finished their checks. They took their man after the draw. They backchecked. They hit. They blocked shots. They played in position and attempted to maintain good gaps within their system. They tried to take care of the puck. They won draws, etc. Compared to the Leafs teams of the last five-six decades, at the very least, this core 5 have made a credible effort in that regard - roughly as good as any I can recall.

So Auston Matthews does all that stuff and while he's doing it, he maintains the highest goals per game in the Leafs 100 plus years of existence (while in a scoring era that is not crazy high like the 70s and 80s) and one of the highest goals per game in NHL history. And his ppg in the playoffs is top 10 or so over the last 5 years. What more can you ask of the guy? He's a generational hockey talent. One of the finest to put on a Leafs jersey. Period. How can we be debating this?

Citing Eichel's one playoff run in 8 years in the league when Matthews has helped his team make the playoffs 7 years running reminds me of John Druce's 14 goals in 15 games in 1990 for the Caps (or whatever it was). It's like cherry picking stats.

Citing the '67 Leafs as a better model with depth seems wacky to me as well. 37% of that team was 36 or older. Keon, Mahovlich & Pulford (I've never regarded Bob as a true HoFer - didn't crack a 1st-2nd All Star team) were the only HoFers under the age of 36. All Habs & Hawks were under the age of 36 except Habs 37 year old backup goalie Worsley) The Leafs were a .535 win% club that committed sports larceny - not a model of a well built franchise at that time. It was the scraps of the early 60s Leafs team that cobbled together a couple of playoff rounds with some old guys to steal it. Chicago, Montreal & Detroit had more current stars of the league. To me, Montreal should have won it (Habs won Cups the two years before and the two years after). We were ecstatic that Montreal had to "borrow" the Cup for Expo '67.

This team is once again a favorite of the bookies to win a Cup next year. Crudely, they have about a 10% chance - which is better than most seasons over the past 50 years or so. As they are presently constructed, I do not think they're as good as the roster that lost to Florida. But it is a work in progress. They have to fix the dmen talent, etc. They wouldn't have that good of a shot without the core 5 and Auston Matthews.

Great post, cw.  I mean, really great stuff.  Thx for the perspective.

Yes, I will second that.  We REALLY REALLY missed you around here CW, so glad you are posting again.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I can't think of another player that is getting so well paid at such an early time in their careers without better personal/team results.

Auston Matthews is one year removed from a 60 goal season.
Auston Matthews is one year removed from winning back 2 back Maurice Richard Trophies
Auston Matthews is one year removed from winning the Hart Trophy for NHL MVP
Auston Matthews is one year removed from being voted the MVP by his peers
Since 2016 Auston Matthews leads the league in goals. He has 12 more goals than Connor McDavid in 43 less games  in that time frame. That's good for 0.62 gpg. McDavid sits at 0.54

Only Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, Cy Denneny, Babe Dye and Pavel Bure have a higher GPG rate than Auston Matthews

Like seriously, what else can he do "personally" in his young career to prove he deserves to get paid?!?

Maybe it is due to age. Maybe it is due to not watching as much as I used to due to other things in my life. I'm not sure. I do not have the same emotional attachment to this group as some in the past. Keon, Sittler, Gilmour & Sundin's teams ... I felt more attached. But that is not a knock on this group. My priorities have changed due to those around me. I'm a little more cold blooded looking at this team.

It is through that lens I can say I have a hunk of respect for this core 5 and therefore, more time and patience. As a group (with Nylander head space not 100% on board), they have embraced trying to play in both ends of the rink. They deserve some real credit for that. They're the biggest reason the team defense improved in my opinion. They led by example. They finished their checks. They took their man after the draw. They backchecked. They hit. They blocked shots. They played in position and attempted to maintain good gaps within their system. They tried to take care of the puck. They won draws, etc. Compared to the Leafs teams of the last five-six decades, at the very least, this core 5 have made a credible effort in that regard - roughly as good as any I can recall.

So Auston Matthews does all that stuff and while he's doing it, he maintains the highest goals per game in the Leafs 100 plus years of existence (while in a scoring era that is not crazy high like the 70s and 80s) and one of the highest goals per game in NHL history. And his ppg in the playoffs is top 10 or so over the last 5 years. What more can you ask of the guy? He's a generational hockey talent. One of the finest to put on a Leafs jersey. Period. How can we be debating this?

Citing Eichel's one playoff run in 8 years in the league when Matthews has helped his team make the playoffs 7 years running reminds me of John Druce's 14 goals in 15 games in 1990 for the Caps (or whatever it was). It's like cherry picking stats.

Citing the '67 Leafs as a better model with depth seems wacky to me as well. 37% of that team was 36 or older. Keon, Mahovlich & Pulford (I've never regarded Bob as a true HoFer - didn't crack a 1st-2nd All Star team) were the only HoFers under the age of 36. All Habs & Hawks were under the age of 36 except Habs 37 year old backup goalie Worsley) The Leafs were a .535 win% club that committed sports larceny - not a model of a well built franchise at that time. It was the scraps of the early 60s Leafs team that cobbled together a couple of playoff rounds with some old guys to steal it. Chicago, Montreal & Detroit had more current stars of the league. To me, Montreal should have won it (Habs won Cups the two years before and the two years after). We were ecstatic that Montreal had to "borrow" the Cup for Expo '67.

This team is once again a favorite of the bookies to win a Cup next year. Crudely, they have about a 10% chance - which is better than most seasons over the past 50 years or so. As they are presently constructed, I do not think they're as good as the roster that lost to Florida. But it is a work in progress. They have to fix the dmen talent, etc. They wouldn't have that good of a shot without the core 5 and Auston Matthews.

I will second that. I was certainly more attached to the stars when I was younger as well. Clark, Vaive, Salming, etc. Look at all the playoff success they led the Leafs to.

Well written CW.

 

[GuyRobinson]

Those frikkers probably look across the Lake and salivate.

As they sit in the stadium and watch the Bills play NFL football.

 

[cabber24]

For Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

Last season
Nylander: 82 GP, 40 G, 87 Pts, 1.06 PPG
DeBrincat: 82 GP, 27 G, 66 Pts, 0.80 PPG

Last 2 seasons
Nylander: 163 GP, 73 G, 167 Pts, 1.02 PPG
DeBrincat: 164 GP, 68 G, 144 Pts, 0.88 PPG

Last 3 seasons
Nylander: 214 GP, 91 G, 209 Pts, 0.98 PPG
DeBrincat: 216 GP, 100 G, 200 Pts, 0.93 PPG

Not gonna lie I didn't expect DeBrincat to have more goals than him over the past 3 seasons but contract negotiations typically look most closely at the last 1 or 2 seasons and what the player can do going forward based off that. And in that regard Nylander has the pretty clear edge.

 

[Kin]

For Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

As CtB points out there are some reasons that Nylander has a stronger case than DeBrincat but this still isn't addressing the larger reality.

Nylander, as a pending UFA, has the leverage in being able to walk at the end of the year. If he's looking for a big money long-term deal and has reason to think one would be out there in the free agency market(which is pretty reasonable for him to think) then all the DeBrincat signings in the world won't force him to take a deal he doesn't want. There's nothing unreasonable about wanting to be paid a market rate.

The Leafs meanwhile have no leverage. They can't say they're the only game in town the way they can when negotiating with RFA's. They can either sign him to a deal he wants to sign or they risk losing him for nothing. They also know that a huge chunk of his value if they want to trade him depends on finding a team willing to give him the kind of deal he wants so it's not like that's a terrible outcome for Nylander anyway.

 

[Bender]

For Nylander I will take the DeBrincat contract. Am I wrong? Is there a rule somewhere that Toronto has to pay more than anyone else? Both right-wingers with almost the exact same Points/Game career totals.

Maybe you can argue what have you done for me lately but the counter would be I did it twice (+40 goals).

Last season
Nylander: 82 GP, 40 G, 87 Pts, 1.06 PPG
DeBrincat: 82 GP, 27 G, 66 Pts, 0.80 PPG

Last 2 seasons
Nylander: 163 GP, 73 G, 167 Pts, 1.02 PPG
DeBrincat: 164 GP, 68 G, 144 Pts, 0.88 PPG

Last 3 seasons
Nylander: 214 GP, 91 G, 209 Pts, 0.98 PPG
DeBrincat: 216 GP, 100 G, 200 Pts, 0.93 PPG

Not gonna lie I didn't expect DeBrincat to have more goals than him over the past 3 seasons but contract negotiations typically look most closely at the last 1 or 2 seasons and what the player can do going forward based off that. And in that regard Nylander has the pretty clear edge.

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

 

[bustaheims]

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

Not sure he?d do that much better, as both Matthews and Tavares are goalscoring Cs rather than playmakers. He?s not the net crashing type that would be the right compliment to either of them - not that Nylander is so much, either, but he does thrive in the dirty areas in front of the net. DeBrincat needs to play with a pass-first type.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I think, at least to a small degree, that doesn't get mentioned enough when discussing Nylander and his comparables.

 

[cw]

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I think, at least to a small degree, that doesn't get mentioned enough when discussing Nylander and his comparables.

I'm sure it came up when Bunting was haggling his deal with the Canes.

I also think it was a significant factor for Bertuzzi & Domi to sign for a year. With Matthews and Tavares and a PP that will include Klingberg (and the existing talent), they should be able to put up some good numbers and flip those numbers into a good multi year contract.

 

[Kin]

You do kinda wonder what Debrincat could do with Tavares or Matthews as his centreman vs. what he had the last couple years.

I get what you're saying but I'm not sure that necessarily tracks. Or at least I'm not sure it works a ton in DeBrincat's favour. In Ottawa, sure, his production was down probably in part because of his linemates(although he seems to have gotten most of his power play time with a pretty good Ottawa group of Stutzle-Tkachuk-Batherson). But in his last two years in Chicago, at least as far as I can tell, he played mainly with Kane on his line. So we've seen him with an elite playmaker and the result it had on his numbers. As pointed out while Matthews and Tavares are certainly very good players, I don't know if they're quite the guys who are going to boost a linemates goal totals the way Kane is.

While it's probably true with any player that playing without an elite player on their line will drive their point totals down, DeBrincat's year in Ottawa might be a big flashing neon sign to teams of just how significant the effect might be. If you don't have a Kane/Matthews to pair a player with, how thrilled are you at the prospect of almost 8 million for a 30 goal, 65 point undersized winger?

 

[cabber24]

Sebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.

 

[Kin]

Sebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.

Every good player who signs a contract to keep them off the free agency market makes a good player who is on the free agency market more valuable, not less. That's supply and demand.

 

[Bender]

Sebastien Aho gets 8 years x $9.75M = $78M.

Does this put the Nylander at $10M thing to bed? Comparable stats but Aho is a center who kills penalties.

Every good player who signs a contract to keep them off the free agency market makes a good player who is on the free agency market more valuable, not less. That's supply and demand.

But there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity. But even if Aho's deal doesn't set a ceiling and just increases his demand, great. Find one of the 22 eligible teams who's willing to sign him to a $10m+ extension that he desires and get them to overpay because they'll overvalue what he brings due to increased scarcity.

 

[Kin]

But there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity.

Sure but the whole reason people have for years argued that spending money in the UFA market is inefficient is precisely because teams overspend on players relative to their quality because of that scarcity. So if, as is being argued, Nylander is "worth" 9 million or so when compared to other players and what they're making in deals signed off the UFA market I think to be realistic you have to assume the inefficiency of the market will drive that up to a somewhat meaningful degree.

If Nylander's position is that he wants a deal in line with what he'd get as a UFA the Aho deal doesn't really affect that or, if it does, probably not in the way we want.

 

[Bender]

But there's still a limit to what players will pay Nylander based on what the player brings to the table if he were UFA. No one is going to say give him McDavid or even Tavares money because scarcity.

Sure but the whole reason people have for years argued that spending money in the UFA market is inefficient is precisely because teams overspend on players relative to their quality because of that scarcity. So if, as is being argued, Nylander is "worth" 9 million or so when compared to other players and what they're making in deals signed off the UFA market I think to be realistic you have to assume the inefficiency of the market will drive that up to a somewhat meaningful degree.

If Nylander's position is that he wants a deal in line with what he'd get as a UFA the Aho deal doesn't really affect that or, if it does, probably not in the way we want.

Sure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+

 

[Kin]

Sure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+

Yes and no. It's certainly possible but it wouldn't be at all unreasonable for a team to think that Nylander at 10 million is a good investment but balk at the idea of Nylander at 10 million and a significant asset cost. As I've said elsewhere the Leafs are also kind of in a weird negotiating position there where they're effectively selling a product they don't think is worth the cost of keeping it. You're also limited in who you can negotiate with as Nylander would still be the guy who would ultimately decide if he wanted to sign with the team in question vs. going to the market.

On the general principle here, I agree. If Nylander wants 10 million per and the Leafs don't want to give that to him then they should definitely explore trade options. I'm pretty skeptical they'd get a great deal in return though. They'd be effectively in the same position Calgary was with Tkachuk last year. 

 

[Bender]

Sure, but if that's the case it's possible to talk a team into a sign and trade to guarantee they have Nylander vs. an open market and they can spend the $10m+

Yes and no. It's certainly possible but it wouldn't be at all unreasonable for a team to think that Nylander at 10 million is a good investment but balk at the idea of Nylander at 10 million and a significant asset cost. As I've said elsewhere the Leafs are also kind of in a weird negotiating position there where they're effectively selling a product they don't think is worth the cost of keeping it. You're also limited in who you can negotiate with as Nylander would still be the guy who would ultimately decide if he wanted to sign with the team in question vs. going to the market.

On the general principle here, I agree. If Nylander wants 10 million per and the Leafs don't want to give that to him then they should definitely explore trade options. I'm pretty skeptical they'd get a great deal in return though. They'd be effectively in the same position Calgary was with Tkachuk last year.

I mean, really the only alternative if we're worried about losing a trade is to just sign the big 3 to whatever agreement we can come to and let Tavares play out his contract.

 

[Kin]

I mean, really the only alternative if we're worried about losing a trade is to just sign the big 3 to whatever agreement we can come to and let Tavares play out his contract.

It's not so much that I'm worried about losing a trade, I just tend to think that on balance there's probably better value in keeping Nylander even if he's 1 million or so above what he's "worth" by virtue of comparable deals rather than what you're likely to get in a trade.

I'm pretty bloodless on this one. If I thought the Leafs would improve by trading Nylander, I'd be behind it. I just think the people who are hard on the trade Nylander wagon tend to either A) underestimate how dumb teams can get in free agency and/or B) Seem to want to make some sort of point about sticking it to a player who they think is punching above his weight.

 

[azzurri63]

I'm personally getting fed up with this core. It's all about them in my opinion and the sooner management sees that the better. Treliving should move Nylander bolster the D or maybe pickup Lindholm and send a message that we aren't bending over for you guys anymore. Most stars are signing for max length. We seem to pay and short terms. Why? We'll see what transpires but I love the moves we've made but frustrating following this core.