What is the trade value (realistically) for Dion Phaneuf?

[x.jr.benchwarmer]

With the upcoming draft, and trade talks ostensibly heating up, it is interesting to see what, if any, offers the Leafs will get for Phaneuf.

Reportedly, the Leafs were offered Weiss and Smith, from Detroit, for Phaneuf, but the Leafs turned it down on the trade dead-line date this past season.  Will the Leafs get more than that over the next few weeks?  Hopefully so, but IMHO the market for him might not be too strong, for a variety of reasons.  This might especially be the case in light of the apparent disinterest of the Red Wings now to make a trade for Phaneuf.

Again, reportedly, Nonis declined the offer this past year because he thought that he could get more for Phaneuf during the summer.  (And Nonis also reportedly had discussions with Shanahan just before he was fired that he felt that Phaneuf was one of the elite defencemen or at least could be one of the elite defencemen in the NHL).

I would suggest that the Leafs might be better served just trading him for the most that they can get now as he does not fit into their plans for youth and speed, and he also plays virtually every power play cutting into Gardiner or Reilly's minutes on the power play.

But it would be interesting to see what others might think of his trade value, since there doesn't seem to be a lot of articles right now about an imminent trade involving him.

 

[jdh1]

I think he,s worth a 2nd rounder and a very good prospect coming our way...however if someone wants to dump salary on us,then a 1st rounder is in order plus the same kind of prospect....I would say.

 

[sneakyray]

I think Toronto finds one good to great prospect they like and build a package around that.

like Ritchie, or draisatl...and then just ya know add maybe a lower pick and a salary dump

 

[Britishbulldog]

I guess I would ask what team in the NHL need a hard hitting, minute eating, 6'3" dman signed to a typical (or should I say reasonable) contract for his ability?

Edmonton?  Anaheim? Carolina?  Florida?

If Phaneuf isn't needed anywhere than I would say his value is low.  If there are some teams that could use his skillset then he obviously is worth more.  I just know if he is needed.

 

[KW Sluggo]

I guess I would ask what team in the NHL need a hard hitting, minute eating, 6'3" dman signed to a typical (or should I say reasonable) contract for his ability?

Edmonton?  Anaheim? Carolina?  Florida?

If Phaneuf isn't needed anywhere than I would say his value is low.  If there are some teams that could use his skillset then he obviously is worth more.  I just know if he is needed.

Value is the question and I concur that Phaneuf is reasonably priced as ar as his contract is concerned.

If, as it appears, some GM is going to pay Franson somewhere north of $5M per year on a multi-year deal, then IMO, Phaneuf is a bargain. Considering what (I hope) Mike Babpenis (I am cleaning up my act) can accomplish with Dion, he may stay as an improved lament of next years team until the dead tradeline (dyslexia intended) when he should garner more in return.

Next summer, the going rate for UFA blue liners of Franson's ilk will be higher, maybe $6M, and Phanny will look even more attractive despite the one  more year on his age ... but, as I say, he will most likely be gone before then.

 

[rdowdall]

Wasn't there a rumour floating around on Leafs Lunch or one of those other radio shows that Shanahan and Babcock had pretty much given up on rehabilitating Kessel, but thought that they may be able to work with Dion. 

Not saying they should keep him, but I thought I heard the talking heads discussing that.

 

[caver]

That makes for an interesting question...if the Leafs only trade one big contract who do you prefer to leave ?? Kessel or Phaneuf ??

 

[dappleganger]

That makes for an interesting question...if the Leafs only trade one big contract who do you prefer to leave ?? Kessel or Phaneuf ??

Phanuef. The captain who can't lead.

 

[losveratos]

That makes for an interesting question...if the Leafs only trade one big contract who do you prefer to leave ?? Kessel or Phaneuf ??

Phanuef. The captain who can't lead.

Hey! Don't disrespect the best DJ in the NHL.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think both Friedman and Dreger reported that the Wings offer for Phaneuf at the deadline as Brendan Smith, Stephen Weiss and Teemu Pulkkinen. If there was no salary retention involved then I think that's a pretty fair offer. I don't think the Wings make that deal now though just because it seems like Blashill is a bigger fan of Pulkkinen than Babcock was.

So using that as a template, a fair offer is a good (but not great) prospect, a young-ish roster player, and a bad contract with a few years left on it in lieu of salary retention.

 

[Leafaholic99]

I think both Friedman and Dreger reported that the Wings offer for Phaneuf at the deadline as Brendan Smith, Stephen Weiss and Teemu Pulkkinen. If there was no salary retention involved then I think that's a pretty fair offer. I don't think the Wings make that deal now though just because it seems like Blashill is a bigger fan of Pulkkinen than Babcock was.

So using that as a template, a fair offer is a good (but not great) prospect, a young-ish roster player, and a bad contract with a few years left on it in lieu of salary retention.

I agree with this, because the trade we got Phaneuf in, sure it had other players involved but when you factor out what we really traded for him and got, this is on par with it, and his value hasn't really gone up. It has gone down with his contract, if not stayed the same.

 

[x.jr.benchwarmer]

I think both Friedman and Dreger reported that the Wings offer for Phaneuf at the deadline as Brendan Smith, Stephen Weiss and Teemu Pulkkinen. If there was no salary retention involved then I think that's a pretty fair offer. I don't think the Wings make that deal now though just because it seems like Blashill is a bigger fan of Pulkkinen than Babcock was.

So using that as a template, a fair offer is a good (but not great) prospect, a young-ish roster player, and a bad contract with a few years left on it in lieu of salary retention.

I agree with this, because the trade we got Phaneuf in, sure it had other players involved but when you factor out what we really traded for him and got, this is on par with it, and his value hasn't really gone up. It has gone down with his contract, if not stayed the same.

That is a good point.  The Leafs got Phaneuf, Aulie and Sjostrom for Stajan, White, Myers, and Hagman.  So any modest return for Phaneuf, now, would be a bonus.

What also might be worth noting was that Kypreos stated that the Leafs were going to get a new captain by the start of next season.  Rhetorically, how can Phaneuf fit into the new management team's plans, and why would they want to keep him any longer than necessary?

If they got a second and a prospect, without taking back much, if any, salary, this would be a decent return, IMHO.  (This is particularly so in light of a recent article indicating that the Leafs would probably have to take back Kessel's salary if they traded him, according to two unnamed GM's, which would be extremely counter-productive from the Leafs' perspective, especially given Kessel's upside as a goal scorer).

 

[Frank E]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

 

[herman]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

 

[Frank E]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

Ted Purcell, at $4.5m for 1 more year, had 12 goals last year.

I'm not so sure that they're willing to let Draisaitl go, but they really don't have much else interesting from a prospect perspective for the Leafs.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

It seems like the Leafs are really in a strong position to do this sort of thing, and it could be quite helpful to all involved in these potential deals.  On one hand, other teams can buy cap relief, and get a serviceable player, as long as they package quality assets in with their salary dumps.  By the time the Leafs are ready to be competitive, these 'junk' contracts should be coming off the books, and those prospects should be nearing their time in the NHL.  In a perfect world, of course.

The press has really confused this issue.  They seem to be looking for headlines when saying the Leafs are going to have to retain salary on deals.  And then quote blowhards like Bill Watters, who goes on about how many millions the Leafs will have to retain on Phaneuf/Kessel, to reinforce their points.  Meanwhile, the Leafs have said before they will take salary back.  Which more than likely looks like the situation you outlined above.

I still wonder if there is a trade to be made with LA for their 1st rounder that somehow involves Richards.  LA gets a pretty good defensman and escapes a bad contract.  The Leafs can slog through 5 years of Richards for less cap hit, and get that contract off the books in time to contend.  In this case, I would put his value at a combination of cap $$ freed up, plus the change in core leadership/captain + we get worse (better for next year's draft).  I think this trade also brings LA's first round pick... not sure if that's fair or not.  I would do it, though.

 

[bustaheims]

I still wonder if there is a trade to be made with LA for their 1st rounder that somehow involves Richards.  LA gets a pretty good defensman and escapes a bad contract.  The Leafs can slog through 5 years of Richards for less cap hit, and get that contract off the books in time to contend.  In this case, I would put his value at a combination of cap $$ freed up, plus the change in core leadership/captain + we get worse (better for next year's draft).  I think this trade also brings LA's first round pick... not sure if that's fair or not.  I would do it, though.

The Leafs probably shouldn't be taking on any contracts longer than 3 years, unless they feel the player on that deal can be a contributor. By years 4 and 5 of the Richards contract, the Leafs should be at a point where they're trying to be competitive and getting into the playoff hunt. Freeing up just over $1M in cap isn't enough to make that a worthwhile deal. LA would have to add something on top of their 1st round pick for the Leafs to bite, and I don't see them being super open to a move like that.

 

[Redleaf]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

Ted Purcell, at $4.5m for 1 more year, had 12 goals last year.

I'm not so sure that they're willing to let Draisaitl go, but they really don't have much else interesting from a prospect perspective for the Leafs.

Be interesting to see if Yak could come into his own with a change of scenery and a better coach. I like the proposal. Edmonton just feels like it could be a fit as a trading partner.

 

[rdowdall]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

It seems like the Leafs are really in a strong position to do this sort of thing, and it could be quite helpful to all involved in these potential deals.  On one hand, other teams can buy cap relief, and get a serviceable player, as long as they package quality assets in with their salary dumps.  By the time the Leafs are ready to be competitive, these 'junk' contracts should be coming off the books, and those prospects should be nearing their time in the NHL.  In a perfect world, of course.

The press has really confused this issue.  They seem to be looking for headlines when saying the Leafs are going to have to retain salary on deals.  And then quote blowhards like Bill Watters, who goes on about how many millions the Leafs will have to retain on Phaneuf/Kessel, to reinforce their points.  Meanwhile, the Leafs have said before they will take salary back.  Which more than likely looks like the situation you outlined above.

I still wonder if there is a trade to be made with LA for their 1st rounder that somehow involves Richards.  LA gets a pretty good defensman and escapes a bad contract.  The Leafs can slog through 5 years of Richards for less cap hit, and get that contract off the books in time to contend.  In this case, I would put his value at a combination of cap $$ freed up, plus the change in core leadership/captain + we get worse (better for next year's draft).  I think this trade also brings LA's first round pick... not sure if that's fair or not.  I would do it, though.

I think it was Ferraro that made the point that they should avoid retaining salary and look more for taking back bad contracts.  The bad contract you may be able to flip or buy out.

 

[x.jr.benchwarmer]

What the asset is worth today should have nothing to do with what it was worth 4 years ago, for better or worse.

Different market, different timing, different contract value/term.

Exactly.

What we do need to strive for are assets that are trending upward (developing towards peak value), like prospects and picks. If we need to take on short-term depreciating pieces to balance the deal, so be it.

My ideal trade would be a package to Edmonton for one of their 2nd-tier forwards (Yakupov/Draisaitl), 2015's 16th pick (or a 2016 1st Rder), and salary dump(s) for Phaneuf + Reimer + a good AHLer (Loov?).

Ted Purcell, at $4.5m for 1 more year, had 12 goals last year.

I'm not so sure that they're willing to let Draisaitl go, but they really don't have much else interesting from a prospect perspective for the Leafs.

Be interesting to see if Yak could come into his own with a change of scenery and a better coach. I like the proposal. Edmonton just feels like it could be a fit as a trading partner.

I certainly agree with the assessment that Edmonton might be a potential trading partner especially with Phaneuf.

But, again without trying to be too pessimistic/objective, what are the chances of Edmonton trading Yakupov who was drafted first overall in 2012 for Phaneuf?  I think that the Edmonton brain-trust would have to have rocks in their head for making such a deal.

If the Leafs get something approaching what they turned down in March for Phaneuf, then I would suggest they should take it.  There were reports  (again that euphemistic word) that up to 10 teams might have expressed an interest in Dion last March,  but realistically it doesn't appear that there are any teams now that are trying to make a deal for Dion.  (I could be wrong but I certainly haven't heard any yet).

And if a deal isn't made over the next couple of weeks, it appears that Phaneuf will stay with the Leafs for a potentially indeterminate time (perhaps as long as 6 more years.......).