Wheeler signs extension with WPG

[Kin]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1036965610272514048

Have to hand it to Winnipeg. All of the doom and gloom about them not being able to re-sign guys definitely hasn't materialized.

 

[Bill_Berg]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1036965610272514048

Have to hand it to Winnipeg. All of the doom and gloom about them not being able to re-sign guys definitely hasn't materialized.

I don't like this deal on its own, but the other deals they have in place make it not a problem.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1036965610272514048

Have to hand it to Winnipeg. All of the doom and gloom about them not being able to re-sign guys definitely hasn't materialized.

I don't like this deal on its own, but the other deals they have in place make it not a problem.

How did Wheeler get so good?  Looking at his first two seasons with Boston he only had 45 and 38 points, now suddenly he's a 90 point guy?  Nylander has outperformed Wheeler's early totals, so can we expect Wee Willy to be a 90+ point guy in the future?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A reminder that the Bruins traded Wheeler away for Rich Peverley and Boris Valabik.

 

[Kin]

How did Wheeler get so good?  Looking at his first two seasons with Boston he only had 45 and 38 points, now suddenly he's a 90 point guy?  Nylander has outperformed Wheeler's early totals, so can we expect Wee Willy to be a 90+ point guy in the future?

A lot of that has to do with coming up with a stacked Boston team. Not every rookie gets thrust into top 6 minutes right away.

Once he started getting real ice time, especially on the PP, he was at 60+ points from the jump.

 

[Kin]

Also worth mentioning that pre-Scheifele he played with maybe one of the worst collection of C's known to man.

 

[herman]

So is Wheeler a product of Scheifele?

Isn?t he, you know, kind of old to sign to 5 years (@8.25M) with a year left on the existing?

 

[Kin]

So is Wheeler a product of Scheifele?

Isn?t he, you know, kind of old to sign to 5 years (@8.25M) with a year left on the existing?

Eh. In some ways it's fairly comparable to the Marleau deal.

Since Wheeler has come into the league his teams have played 786 regular season games. Wheeler has suited up for 778 of them.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This contract seems... fine. I'm skeptical that Wheeler will put up another 90 point season, or even be a PPG+ player again, but even if he drops back to the 70s the AAV still seems fair. I mean Couture just got $8mil for being a 60-point guy essentially. The term is probably a year longer than I would have liked but a guy like Wheeler just isn't going to sign for anything less than that, so good on the Jets for not going any longer.

 

[Zee]

Didn't realize Wheeler had a year left on his old deal, so they have him for 6 more years, at his age could be a big drop off in years 4-6.  I hope that's the case cause I'm no fan of the Jets

 

[Frank E]

I think that's a pretty nice deal for Wheeler, no matter what he does this year.

 

[herman]

Tyler Dellow dug a bit into Wheeler?s numbers from last season, relative to his previous, and the bulk of his production came from a PP productivity explosion. Much of it was just throwing the puck to Scheifele or Laine and they did their magic (hi John Carlson).

https://theathletic.com/505413/2018/09/05/dellow-jets-made-a-mistake-with-blake-wheelers-new-contract/

I don?t begrudge Wheeler taking this deal, but I am skeptical of paying a 30+ yr old player for a recent high watermark of points that came from the power play where it?s pretty clear he?s just the Bozak of the bunch.

There are definitely similarities to Marleau?s deal, in that a veteran complementary winger is being overpaid (lol fair market price). There were reasons I didn?t really like the Marleau deal, but there are many reasons why I think it has worked both on and off the ice. So I?m happy to let this Wheeler deal play out. If he succeeds, good for him! If he falls off giant production cliff like so many others have before, all the better for the Leafs.

 

[Kin]

I don?t begrudge Wheeler taking this deal, but I am skeptical of paying a 30+ yr old player for a recent high watermark of points that came from the power play where it?s pretty clear he?s just the Bozak of the bunch.

I don't think this is paying him based on his last season's point totals. Tavares has never hit 90 points and he got 11 million per. A 90+ point free agent, if that was a fair expectation of production, would get considerably more than what Wheeler got.

His point production over the last five seasons averages out to 75 points per. That seems like an 8 million dollar UFA to me considering what we just saw JVR get.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don?t begrudge Wheeler taking this deal, but I am skeptical of paying a 30+ yr old player for a recent high watermark of points that came from the power play where it?s pretty clear he?s just the Bozak of the bunch.

I don't think this is paying him based on his last season's point totals. Tavares has never hit 90 points and he got 11 million per. A 90+ point free agent, if that was a fair expectation of production, would get considerably more than what Wheeler got.

His point production over the last five seasons averages out to 75 points per. That seems like an 8 million dollar UFA to me considering what we just saw JVR get.

If he was 29, like JvR, then a 5 yr deal at "going rate of 8+ mil for a 75 pt guy" would be acceptable.  But he'll be 33 when the contract begins.  If I'm paying someone 8+ million a year, I better expect he'd not drop off a cliff, possibly before the contract even kicks in.  Wheeler is entering the phase of his career where you can reasonably expect him to start his decline.  His point totals will probably be buoyed by the guys around him to make it look less bad, but at the end of the day its going to look bad.  JvR will have one year left on his deal when he hits 33. 

The main issue I'd have with the deal if I was a Jets fan is how much it may hamper them keeping their young talent moving forward: 

Deals to sign this year:  Morrissey
Deals to sign next year:  Laine, Trouba, Connor, Morrow, Copp
Deals to sign the following year:  Roslovic

They won't have a problem fitting everyone in this year, but next year they have 27 million in space (plus any increase), and have those 6 guys to sign PLUS the following depth:  3 F, 1 D, 1 Backup... so even at league minimum for those 5 rosters spots, they have 24 million for some pieces that I'd expect to be expensive.  (Laine 8.5+, Morrisey 4+, Trouba 6+,  Connor 6-7...)

Good teams end up in cap crunches.  Expensive declining veterans are always the main issue, as we'll see with Marleau next year.

 

[Kin]

If he was 29, like JvR, then a 5 yr deal at "going rate of 8+ mil for a 75 pt guy" would be acceptable.  But he'll be 33 when the contract begins.  If I'm paying someone 8+ million a year, I better expect he'd not drop off a cliff, possibly before the contract even kicks in.  Wheeler is entering the phase of his career where you can reasonably expect him to start his decline.  His point totals will probably be buoyed by the guys around him to make it look less bad, but at the end of the day its going to look bad.  JvR will have one year left on his deal when he hits 33. 

The main issue I'd have with the deal if I was a Jets fan is how much it may hamper them keeping their young talent moving forward: 

Deals to sign this year:  Morrissey
Deals to sign next year:  Laine, Trouba, Connor, Morrow, Copp
Deals to sign the following year:  Roslovic

They won't have a problem fitting everyone in this year, but next year they have 27 million in space (plus any increase), and have those 6 guys to sign PLUS the following depth:  3 F, 1 D, 1 Backup... so even at league minimum for those 5 rosters spots, they have 24 million for some pieces that I'd expect to be expensive.  (Laine 8.5+, Morrisey 4+, Trouba 6+,  Connor 6-7...)

Good teams end up in cap crunches.  Expensive declining veterans are always the main issue, as we'll see with Marleau next year.

I agree and disagree with various points you're making there but the fundamental issue is that "The UFA market is an often inefficient use of cap dollars" and "This contract is a misrepresentation of a player's market value" are two very different arguments.

Again, even with a guy like Tavares and even after he took less than he was offered elsewhere, his cap hit relative to the rest of the league probably doesn't accurately represent his actual value(He's a top 10 or 20 player with the #2 cap hit in the league).

 

[Coco-puffs]

If he was 29, like JvR, then a 5 yr deal at "going rate of 8+ mil for a 75 pt guy" would be acceptable.  But he'll be 33 when the contract begins.  If I'm paying someone 8+ million a year, I better expect he'd not drop off a cliff, possibly before the contract even kicks in.  Wheeler is entering the phase of his career where you can reasonably expect him to start his decline.  His point totals will probably be buoyed by the guys around him to make it look less bad, but at the end of the day its going to look bad.  JvR will have one year left on his deal when he hits 33. 

The main issue I'd have with the deal if I was a Jets fan is how much it may hamper them keeping their young talent moving forward: 

Deals to sign this year:  Morrissey
Deals to sign next year:  Laine, Trouba, Connor, Morrow, Copp
Deals to sign the following year:  Roslovic

They won't have a problem fitting everyone in this year, but next year they have 27 million in space (plus any increase), and have those 6 guys to sign PLUS the following depth:  3 F, 1 D, 1 Backup... so even at league minimum for those 5 rosters spots, they have 24 million for some pieces that I'd expect to be expensive.  (Laine 8.5+, Morrisey 4+, Trouba 6+,  Connor 6-7...)

Good teams end up in cap crunches.  Expensive declining veterans are always the main issue, as we'll see with Marleau next year.

I agree and disagree with various points you're making there but the fundamental issue is that "The UFA market is an often inefficient use of cap dollars" and "This contract is a misrepresentation of a player's market value" are two very different arguments.

Again, even with a guy like Tavares and even after he took less than he was offered elsewhere, his cap hit relative to the rest of the league probably doesn't accurately represent his actual value(He's a top 10 or 20 player with the #2 cap hit in the league).

Just to be clear, I don't think his contract is a misrepresentation of his current- or even near future- value.  I also agree that the UFA market is an often inefficient use of cap dollars.  I also understand its very hard for a team like Winnipeg- which has trouble attracting free agents and has finally put a team on the ice that can contend- to walk away from a player like Wheeler in a year.  (Or consider trading him when they are considered one of the best teams in the league) 

Its not much different than the conversation some of us have had surrounding Jake Gardiner going into the last year of his deal this season.  Do we let him play it out?  Do we sign him to an extension now that may really make it difficult to keep everyone?  Do we trade him to get value now? 

With that said, I think the Jets are actually better positioned than the Leafs.  They have more wingers in their pipeline that can reasonably bring what Wheeler brings to the ice than the Leafs have d-men near Gardiner's calibre.  I really think they should have waited out the year to see what happens. 

Just as I'm hoping the Leafs do with Gardiner.  Play out the year.  Get your young players signed to their next contracts so you understand your cap picture going forward.  Then see if your veteran player still fits in.  And in the case of Wheeler, you have another year to see if he's declined at all and maybe he comes in at a lower dollar and/or term.  I don't see how his value could have gone up.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don?t begrudge Wheeler taking this deal, but I am skeptical of paying a 30+ yr old player for a recent high watermark of points that came from the power play where it?s pretty clear he?s just the Bozak of the bunch.

Bozak scored 13 PP points (132nd in the league, 6th on his team) this past season, with a /60 rate of 4.39.

Wheeler scored 40 PP points (2nd in the league, 1st on his team) this past season, with a /60 rate of 9.41.

Not sure it's fair to say they had a similar role/effect on their teams powerplay.

 

[Kin]

Just as I'm hoping the Leafs do with Gardiner.  Play out the year.  Get your young players signed to their next contracts so you understand your cap picture going forward.  Then see if your veteran player still fits in.  And in the case of Wheeler, you have another year to see if he's declined at all and maybe he comes in at a lower dollar and/or term.  I don't see how his value could have gone up.

I don't think the risk is necessarily that his value goes up, it's that he feels disrespected at not being a priority and he becomes more willing to look elsewhere/generally unhappy. Which would, like you say, not necessarily be a tragedy from a bloodless asset management point of view but could carry consequences in terms of what it might do to the  relationship between the team and their players.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just as I'm hoping the Leafs do with Gardiner.  Play out the year.  Get your young players signed to their next contracts so you understand your cap picture going forward.  Then see if your veteran player still fits in.  And in the case of Wheeler, you have another year to see if he's declined at all and maybe he comes in at a lower dollar and/or term.  I don't see how his value could have gone up.

I don't think the risk is necessarily that his value goes up, it's that he feels disrespected at not being a priority and he becomes more willing to look elsewhere/generally unhappy. Which would, like you say, not necessarily be a tragedy from a bloodless asset management point of view but could carry consequences in terms of what it might do to the  relationship between the team and their players.

In addition, and I'm just spit-balling here, but if the Jets win the Cup this season (and everyone considers them one of the favourites to do so) and Wheeler has a huge playoffs or even wins the Conn Smythe, that could have certainly bumped him above $8.5mil I think. Even if his regular season stats went back into the 70s.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don?t begrudge Wheeler taking this deal, but I am skeptical of paying a 30+ yr old player for a recent high watermark of points that came from the power play where it?s pretty clear he?s just the Bozak of the bunch.

Bozak scored 13 PP points (132nd in the league) this past season, with a /60 rate of 4.39.

Wheeler scored 40 PP points (2nd in the league) this past season, with a /60 rate of 9.41.

Not sure it's fair to say they had a similar role/effect on their teams powerplay.

Well, they definitely had a different role.  Wheeler was the main setup guy on their top PP.  His job was to feed Buff, Laine, and Scheifle one timers.  Almost everything went through him, similar to how everything went through Marner.  He had a ton of 5-3 PP points just by playing catch with deadly shooters.

What Dellow went on to point out about his 5v4 production, is he doesn't feel that Wheeler was doing anything special in his role... it was the shooters who had the value as they were scoring from so goddamn far out.  As long as you could make a reasonable pass you'd pick up lots of points with that kind of shooting talent. In fact, you'd still pick up points on plays that weren't exactly good ones:

Well, Wheeler ended up with eight first assists on Laine goals. Only one duo has topped that since 2007-08 ? Alex Ovechkin scored 10 goals with first assists to John Carlson last year. Watching that video of seven of the eight assists though?you?ve got an assist where he fell down and swept it into the slot, two more where the pass was deflected, retrieved by Laine and put away and then a fourth where he gets stick checked and the puck rolls to Laine. I couldn?t get video of the eighth assist but looking at it on NHL.com, Wheeler gets stick checked and the puck goes to Laine, who beats Maxime Lagace with a wrist shot from 57 feet away.