Wheeler signs extension with WPG

[Coco-puffs]

Just as I'm hoping the Leafs do with Gardiner.  Play out the year.  Get your young players signed to their next contracts so you understand your cap picture going forward.  Then see if your veteran player still fits in.  And in the case of Wheeler, you have another year to see if he's declined at all and maybe he comes in at a lower dollar and/or term.  I don't see how his value could have gone up.

I don't think the risk is necessarily that his value goes up, it's that he feels disrespected at not being a priority and he becomes more willing to look elsewhere/generally unhappy. Which would, like you say, not necessarily be a tragedy from a bloodless asset management point of view but could carry consequences in terms of what it might do to the  relationship between the team and their players.

I think there is a lot of extrapolation there.  I'm not saying its impossible it goes down that way with Wheeler specifically- it very well could- but I would be more than willing to take that risk.  I don't think other players would necessarily see Wheeler have to play out the final year of his contract without an extension and think the team doesn't value the relationship etc. 

 

[Kin]

In addition, and I'm just spit-balling here, but if the Jets win the Cup this season (and everyone considers them one of the favourites to do so) and Wheeler has a huge playoffs or even wins the Conn Smythe, that could have certainly bumped him above $8.5mil I think. Even if his regular season stats went back into the 70s.

Well, to be honest, I think 8.25 million is already on the low end of what he'd get as a UFA. Like I said to Herman, I don't think this contract is representative of the year he had last year but as a UFA someone very well might have paid him on that basis.

And, to get a little more abstract, I think hockey has sort of reached this weird point where when we talk about how much a player is "worth" or what he "should" get there are multiple definitions of those things that make the conversation generally kind of meaningless.

 

[Coco-puffs]

In addition, and I'm just spit-balling here, but if the Jets win the Cup this season (and everyone considers them one of the favourites to do so) and Wheeler has a huge playoffs or even wins the Conn Smythe, that could have certainly bumped him above $8.5mil I think. Even if his regular season stats went back into the 70s.

Sure.  And if I'm the Jets and all that happens, I'm ecstatic and I say to Wheeler your value on the market might have gone up but we need to keep this team together and to do that you can't be making 9M at 38 years old.

Lets turn the tables.... if Gardiner wins the Conn Smythe on his way to the Leafs winning the cup this season, are you really going to want to resign him at a huge dollar amount (say 8M?).  I know I wouldn't.  I'd be ecstatic we won the cup and wouldn't blink an eye as he left as long as the young guys- the guys who are more likely to drive the bus to repeating (Matthews, Marner, Nylander)- are signed long term.

 

[Kin]

I think there is a lot of extrapolation there.  I'm not saying its impossible it goes down that way with Wheeler specifically- it very well could- but I would be more than willing to take that risk.

Sure, but that's easy to do when managing the dressing room and the various personalities in it isn't a concern.

I don't think other players would necessarily see Wheeler have to play out the final year of his contract without an extension and think the team doesn't value the relationship etc.

It's not just that he'd be playing out the final year of his extension, it'd the team not willing to sign an extension despite there being clear desire on Wheeler's part to negotiate a reasonable deal and be willing to risk Wheeler deciding he wanted to go elsewhere. That's not something you do with a player you really want to keep around.

Considering that Wheeler is a very well regarded team Captain and has been playing for years on a very team-friendly deal I really don't think it's much of an assumption that his teammates would react negatively to that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What Dellow went on to point out about his 5v4 production, is he doesn't feel that Wheeler was doing anything special in his role... it was the shooters who had the value as they were scoring from so goddamn far out.  As long as you could make a reasonable pass you'd pick up lots of points with that kind of shooting talent. In fact, you'd still pick up points on plays that weren't exactly good ones:

Well, Wheeler ended up with eight first assists on Laine goals. Only one duo has topped that since 2007-08 ? Alex Ovechkin scored 10 goals with first assists to John Carlson last year. Watching that video of seven of the eight assists though?you?ve got an assist where he fell down and swept it into the slot, two more where the pass was deflected, retrieved by Laine and put away and then a fourth where he gets stick checked and the puck rolls to Laine. I couldn?t get video of the eighth assist but looking at it on NHL.com, Wheeler gets stick checked and the puck goes to Laine, who beats Maxime Lagace with a wrist shot from 57 feet away.

I genuinely feel like you could probably make this same exact argument for any PP set up guy, like even Marner for instance. It's kind of silly and completely disregards every positive thing that Wheeler might be doing on the powerplay that leads up to him being able to make those sort of passes, even if a handful of them were lucky.

Saying that Wheeler wasn't doing anything special in his role is just borderline insulting to him. You don't lead the league in PP assists and primary PP assists by accident. Winnipeg is certainly lucky to have the type of RH weapons that they do, but it means nothing if they don't have a guy who can consistently get them the puck.

 

[Coco-puffs]

What Dellow went on to point out about his 5v4 production, is he doesn't feel that Wheeler was doing anything special in his role... it was the shooters who had the value as they were scoring from so goddamn far out.  As long as you could make a reasonable pass you'd pick up lots of points with that kind of shooting talent. In fact, you'd still pick up points on plays that weren't exactly good ones:

Well, Wheeler ended up with eight first assists on Laine goals. Only one duo has topped that since 2007-08 ? Alex Ovechkin scored 10 goals with first assists to John Carlson last year. Watching that video of seven of the eight assists though?you?ve got an assist where he fell down and swept it into the slot, two more where the pass was deflected, retrieved by Laine and put away and then a fourth where he gets stick checked and the puck rolls to Laine. I couldn?t get video of the eighth assist but looking at it on NHL.com, Wheeler gets stick checked and the puck goes to Laine, who beats Maxime Lagace with a wrist shot from 57 feet away.

I genuinely feel like you could probably make this same exact argument for any PP set up guy, like even Marner for instance. It's kind of silly and completely disregards every positive thing that Wheeler might be doing on the powerplay that leads up to him being able to make those sort of passes, even if a handful of them were lucky.

Saying that Wheeler wasn't doing anything special in his role is just borderline insulting to him. You don't lead the league in PP assists and primary PP assists by accident. Winnipeg is certainly lucky to have the type of RH weapons that they do, but it means nothing if they don't have a guy who can consistently get them the puck.

Just so we're clear, I don't watch enough Jets hockey to form my own opinion on how instrumental Wheeler was to the PP.  I'm taking Dellow's analysis of it and sharing it because it backs up my point of view that this deal is not going to age very well and that I wouldn't have signed it.  Dellow also points out that Wheeler has already seen a dip in 5v5 production in line with what happens as players age.  And that's while playing on a line with Scheiflie and Connor.

 

[Coco-puffs]

In addition, and I'm just spit-balling here, but if the Jets win the Cup this season (and everyone considers them one of the favourites to do so) and Wheeler has a huge playoffs or even wins the Conn Smythe, that could have certainly bumped him above $8.5mil I think. Even if his regular season stats went back into the 70s.

Well, to be honest, I think 8.25 million is already on the low end of what he'd get as a UFA. Like I said to Herman, I don't think this contract is representative of the year he had last year but as a UFA someone very well might have paid him on that basis.

And, to get a little more abstract, I think hockey has sort of reached this weird point where when we talk about how much a player is "worth" or what he "should" get there are multiple definitions of those things that make the conversation generally kind of meaningless.

I don't doubt for one second that some GM's in the league would be jumping over themselves to sign Wheeler, at 33 years old, to a long-term big money contract come next July 1st.  Doesn't mean its a good idea.  In fact, I think its a very risky idea that I wouldn't be comfortable moving forward with and I hope the GM of my team would feel the same.  So if I was a Jets fan, I wouldn't be happy with it, despite the fact that he's probably worth that contract right now and would get it from someone if he went UFA.  Not saying I'd be upset about it, but I'd be very nervous how its going to pan out.  Especially with many young players left to re-sign.

 

[Kin]

In fact, I think its a very risky idea that I wouldn't be comfortable moving forward with and I hope the GM of my team would feel the same. 

Ok and like I said if we were talking about video game players who can be talked about largely as numbers on a spreadsheet I'd probably lean towards agreeing with you. Balancing the other element of dealing with real human hockey players is where my doubts about that bubble up from and make me think that, if the guys running the Jets know their business, the downside probably isn't terribly significant here.

Or, again, how I felt about the Marleau deal.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just so we're clear, I don't watch enough Jets hockey to form my own opinion on how instrumental Wheeler was to the PP.  I'm taking Dellow's analysis of it and sharing it because it backs up my point of view that this deal is not going to age very well and that I wouldn't have signed it.  Dellow also points out that Wheeler has already seen a dip in 5v5 production in line with what happens as players age.  And that's while playing on a line with Scheiflie and Connor.

He said that his 5-on-5 production has actually been "remarkably consistent" over the past few years. Then mentions that his 5-on-5 primary point production (goals and 1st assists) has been a bit of a blip while at the same time admitting that may not mean anything.

 

[Coco-puffs]

In fact, I think its a very risky idea that I wouldn't be comfortable moving forward with and I hope the GM of my team would feel the same. 

Ok and like I said if we were talking about video game players who can be talked about largely as numbers on a spreadsheet I'd probably lean towards agreeing with you. Balancing the other element of dealing with real human hockey players is where my doubts about that bubble up from and make me think that, if the guys running the Jets know their business, the downside probably isn't terribly significant here.

Or, again, how I felt about the Marleau deal.

Nik, that is totally fair.  And to be honest, I had totally forgotten that Wheeler was the captain and was there from day 1 in Winnipeg.  There is is history there that makes it hard to just look at the spreadsheet and then let him walk. 

Murat Ates, Winnipeg beat writer for the Athletic just put out his own article and I think his summary really sums it up nicely

To use a truism of sorts, salary cap management in the NHL is an efficiency contest. With that reality in mind, there are substantial risks to paying Wheeler $8.25 million per year until he is 37.

To use an even more established truism, winning cures all ailments. The distinct sense in Winnipeg is that the Jets see their window to win is now open and they?re willing to do whatever it takes to try.

In my mind, the bet Winnipeg made with Wheeler is that he is the player ? and the person ? they need to help them win right now. If they miss, hindsight could turn September 3, 2018 into the day their window was shortened. If they hit, their success will more than outshine whatever inefficiency his deal represents in the future.

https://theathletic.com/507174/2018/09/06/blake-wheelers-contract-extension-is-a-bet-that-winning-cures-all-ailments/

 

[Coco-puffs]

Just so we're clear, I don't watch enough Jets hockey to form my own opinion on how instrumental Wheeler was to the PP.  I'm taking Dellow's analysis of it and sharing it because it backs up my point of view that this deal is not going to age very well and that I wouldn't have signed it.  Dellow also points out that Wheeler has already seen a dip in 5v5 production in line with what happens as players age.  And that's while playing on a line with Scheiflie and Connor.

He said that his 5-on-5 production has actually been "remarkably consistent" over the past few years. Then mentions that his 5-on-5 primary point production (goals and 1st assists) has been a bit of a blip while at the same time admitting that may not mean anything.

The quote, in full, since we will probably argue about it

So I?m skeptical that Wheeler is really responsible for a large part of his case for a massive AAV. Then you get into what can be expected from him at 5-on-5 going forward. He?s been remarkably consistent as a Jet, scoring 2.1, 2.2, 2.1, 2.o, 2.5, 1.9 and 2.1 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. His primary points have shown a little bit more of a dip of late, going 1.5, 1.8, 1.7, 1.7, 2.1, 1.5 and 1.4 points per 60 minutes. I?m not an absolutist when it comes to primary points but there?s an interesting study to be done on whether this latest blip is concerning.

Yes, I was referring to his dip in primary points at 5v5, which has been shown to be more predictive of future points than total points at 5v5.  Then Dellow continued and showed what history has shown us with players near Wheeler's output tend to do as they age into their mid-30's.  They mostly decline.  Its a big risk. 

My stand on this is was it wouldn't be a risk I'd take.  However, I'm softening on this to some degree.  As Murat wrote, if they win a cup, it will have been worth taking and sometimes you have to shoot your shot.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yes, I was referring to his dip in primary points at 5v5, which has been shown to be more predictive of future points than total points at 5v5.  Then Dellow continued and showed what history has shown us with players near Wheeler's output tend to do as they age into their mid-30's.  They mostly decline.  Its a big risk.

Essentially I just think that it's a little difficult for me to believe a player who has put up his 3 best statistical seasons in his age 31-29-30 year old seasons is already showing signs of decline. If anything Wheeler's already shown to defy the typical aging curves of forwards. If there's a guy I'm betting to continue to produce in his mid-30s it's probably him. Even if it just means having to adjust his playing style to be more of a PP guy than a 5-on-5 guy. I don't know about you but I'll take 70+ points any way I can get them.

Yes, it's easy to say the Jets should have waited until next summer to deal with this contract. I said the same thing at the beginning of this thread. But I can certainly understand a bit of their probable reasoning for wanting to get this done now.

 

[Frank E]

Yes, I was referring to his dip in primary points at 5v5, which has been shown to be more predictive of future points than total points at 5v5.  Then Dellow continued and showed what history has shown us with players near Wheeler's output tend to do as they age into their mid-30's.  They mostly decline.  Its a big risk.

Essentially I just think that it's a little difficult for me to believe a player who has put up his 3 best statistical seasons in his age 31-29-30 year old seasons is already showing signs of decline. If anything Wheeler's already shown to defy the typical aging curves of forwards. If there's a guy I'm betting to continue to produce in his mid-30s it's probably him. Even if it just means having to adjust his playing style to be more of a PP guy than a 5-on-5 guy. I don't know about you but I'll take 70+ points any way I can get them.

Yes, it's easy to say the Jets should have waited until next summer to deal with this contract. I said the same thing at the beginning of this thread. But I can certainly understand a bit of their probable reasoning for wanting to get this done now.

From what Wheeler said, it sounds like Wheeler wanted the deal done so as to not have the "Tavares drama" all year.

And Wheeler may have simply said, I'm either signing now, or I'm going to UFA next summer and you can compete for me then.