Who are the Leafs better than?

[bustaheims]

Also this is completely random/off-topic but while checking those bottom-5 finishes I noticed something very weird in the lockout-shortened season. So much so that I actually decided to double-check with another source to make sure the information on NHL.com was correct.

Carolina and Calgary finished 5th and 6th last that year. They had identical records of 19-25-4. Calgary finished higher because they had just 1 more ROW than Carolina did, 19 to 18. IF that had been tied though, the next tie-breaker would have been points earned in games between the two teams. But Carolina and Calgary never played each other that season because that season was all inter-conference play. So the next tie-breaker after that would have been greater goal differential. Well, they both finished with 128 goals for and 160 goals against. That's crazy. I wonder how they would have decided that if ROW's were the same.

I wonder if maybe they would have removed shootout goals from the goal differential at that point (since, for some reason, the league includes the goal awarded for the shootout win in those totals). So, had one of the teams lost more games in OT instead of the shootout, they would have had a better real goal differential.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Vancouver still has that top line together and has some sandpaper there, a young gun in Horvat, and Edler/Tanev/Hamhuis/Sbisa is quite a bit nicer than the Leafs' top four, and Luongo in net.

Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.

Miller is in net for Vancouver, and they traded away their best goalie this offseason (something Vancouver has done for like 3-straight seasons now).

As for Philly, they have arguably the worst defence in the league in my books, so I guess you really don't like our group.

 

[bustaheims]

Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.

They might have the least mobile group of defencemen in the league. As poor as the Leafs have played defensively, their blueline is better suited for the way the game is played now than Philly's.

 

[Frank E]

Vancouver still has that top line together and has some sandpaper there, a young gun in Horvat, and Edler/Tanev/Hamhuis/Sbisa is quite a bit nicer than the Leafs' top four, and Luongo in net.

Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.

Miller is in net for Vancouver, and they traded away their best goalie this offseason (something Vancouver has done for like 3-straight seasons now).

As for Philly, they have arguably the worst defence in the league in my books, so I guess you really don't like our group.

Sorry, I meant Miller.  And I think he's good enough for a .92 this season behind that defense.

I really don't like our group of defenders, and admittedly, Philly's isn't great.  I still like that group better than the Leafs', but maybe that's just me liking other players without seeing much.  I like Streit better than anything on the Leafs' roster, and Del Zotto more than Gardiner.  Is Phaneuf stronger than Andrew MacDonald?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sorry, I meant Miller.  And I think he's good enough for a .92 this season behind that defense.

He was a .911 goalie behind that same defence minus Bieksa last season. He also just turned 35 years old, so his best days are definitely behind him.

I really don't like our group of defenders, and admittedly, Philly's isn't great.  I still like that group better than the Leafs', but maybe that's just me liking other players without seeing much.  I like Streit better than anything on the Leafs' roster, and Del Zotto more than Gardiner.  Is Phaneuf stronger than Andrew MacDonald?

MacDonald is generally considered the worst top-4 defenceman in the entire league. He's basically the David Clarkson of defencemen. I do like Streit though, I'd probably take him over Phaneuf although it'd be pretty close. After that I'd give the edge to the Leaf in a man-to-man comparison.

 

[Frank E]

He was a .911 goalie behind that same defence minus Bieksa last season. He also just turned 35 years old, so his best days are definitely behind him.

Listen, you could be right, but he was .923 the year previous on a pretty bad Buffalo team too.

MacDonald is generally considered the worst top-4 defenceman in the entire league. He's basically the David Clarkson of defencemen. I do like Streit though, I'd probably take him over Phaneuf although it'd be pretty close. After that I'd give the edge to the Leaf in a man-to-man comparison.

That's why I asked, I haven't seen much of MacDonald.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Sorry, I meant Miller.  And I think he's good enough for a .92 this season behind that defense.

He was a .911 goalie behind that same defence minus Bieksa last season. He also just turned 35 years old, so his best days are definitely behind him.

I really don't like our group of defenders, and admittedly, Philly's isn't great.  I still like that group better than the Leafs', but maybe that's just me liking other players without seeing much.  I like Streit better than anything on the Leafs' roster, and Del Zotto more than Gardiner.  Is Phaneuf stronger than Andrew MacDonald?

MacDonald is generally considered the worst top-4 defenceman in the entire league. He's basically the David Clarkson of defencemen. I do like Streit though, I'd probably take him over Phaneuf although it'd be pretty close. After that I'd give the edge to the Leaf in a man-to-man comparison.

I'd say Streit-Gardiner is a more apt comparison and that it's almost even.

 

[Frank E]

MacDonald is generally considered the worst top-4 defenceman in the entire league. He's basically the David Clarkson of defencemen. I do like Streit though, I'd probably take him over Phaneuf although it'd be pretty close. After that I'd give the edge to the Leaf in a man-to-man comparison.

I'd say Streit-Gardiner is a more apt comparison and that it's almost even.

I think you're off on that one, Streit doubled Gardiner's point production last year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

MacDonald is generally considered the worst top-4 defenceman in the entire league. He's basically the David Clarkson of defencemen. I do like Streit though, I'd probably take him over Phaneuf although it'd be pretty close. After that I'd give the edge to the Leaf in a man-to-man comparison.

I'd say Streit-Gardiner is a more apt comparison and that it's almost even.

I think you're off on that one, Streit doubled Gardiner's point production last year.

Yeah, I just don't see him repeating the 30 PP points again.  That's Erik Karlsson territory and double his total from the previous season.  I mean, he's 37 now...if he can, that's really, really impressive.  If Gardiner gets #1 PP time maybe he can up his #'s.  Last season there was only 4 points separating their respective PP production.  I just feel that at his age it's more likely an outlier that he put up 30 PP points and that therefore his points production isn't maybe what it seems.

And maybe he is still better but I don't think the gap is wide at even-strength.

 

[Kin]

Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.

They might have the least mobile group of defencemen in the league. As poor as the Leafs have played defensively, their blueline is better suited for the way the game is played now than Philly's.

I really think we'll see a younger group of defensemen in Philly than we might think. They have a ton of young talent on the blue line.

 

[bustaheims]

I really think we'll see a younger group of defensemen in Philly than we might think. They have a ton of young talent on the blue line.

They also have a number of older guys on fairly expensive contracts blocking their way. We may see those younger defencemen, but I don't think we'll see any of them as regulars for a season or two - maybe one this year, but that's about all there's room for right now.

 

[Kin]

They also have a number of older guys on fairly expensive contracts blocking their way. We may see those younger defencemen, but I don't think we'll see any of them as regulars for a season or two - maybe one this year, but that's about all there's room for right now.

Aside from Macdonald though, none of their contracts are particularly long. Basically just one or two year deals, all between 3-4 million. So I don't think if anyone is pushing for a job they'll have a hard time fitting them in.

 

[hockeyfan1]

From Sportsnet 590 (Elliote Friedman):

Now, I?m not sure they?re a playoff team. I think you look at the teams who made the playoffs last year and think, ?who is worse, really?? I think there?s not really anybody who looks that much worse. I just look at them and I see they?ve got a roster with a lot of guys with the incentive to be good.

I also don?t think it can be that bad again. And the reason is, it wasn?t just bad because of the way it went on the ice, it was bad because of the way it went off the ice. Last year was an angry year. You know, the players hated the fans and the media. The media hated the players and the fans. The fans hated the players and the media. Like, everybody hated everyone else, and everyone felt they were justified in their hatred of everybody else. I don?t believe it can be that bad again.

And it didn?t go away. Sometimes it?s a short term thing, and it changes, but it wasn?t a short term thing. It hung over everybody ? the organization, the players, the media, the fans. It was an angry season. In my time I?ve been working professionally, I?ve seen years that were tough, I?ve never seen a year like that, where it just hung for so long.[color]


http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/07/12/sunday-mas

 

[Highlander]

Yes no hope sunk in, even though we knew Shanahan had a lot of things brewing, things managment and structurally that are all so clear now.  But hope has returned and even though it may not be pretty for a while or even a long while, the team will not lay down, no way. 

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Yes no hope sunk in, even though we knew Shanahan had a lot of things brewing, things managment and structurally that are all so clear now.  But hope has returned and even though it may not be pretty for a while or even a long while, the team will not lay lie down, no way.

*runs away*

 

[rdowdall]

Yes no hope sunk in, even though we knew Shanahan had a lot of things brewing, things managment and structurally that are all so clear now.  But hope has returned and even though it may not be pretty for a while or even a long while, the team will not lay lie down, no way.

*runs away*

Seeing as how this is now in the past, shouldn't it be ran away?

 

[Bullfrog]

*runs away*

Stay.........and stand proud.

 

[Frank E]

Philly with Voracek and Giroux outpace anyone left in the Leafs' forward ranks, and again, their defense looks a heck of a lot better than the Leafs', and Mason > Bernier or Reimer.

They might have the least mobile group of defencemen in the league. As poor as the Leafs have played defensively, their blueline is better suited for the way the game is played now than Philly's.

We're strictly talking about how they'll be better/worse next year...here they are in terms of ice time this past year:

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Polak
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Shultz vs. Rielly
Schenn vs. Robidas

 

[bustaheims]

Streit vs. Phaneuf
Del Zotto vs. Polak
MacDonald vs. Gardiner
Shultz vs. Rielly
Schenn vs. Robidas

Well, Gardiner and Rielly are both substantially better than their counterparts. Schenn and Robidas is probably even. Del Zotto gets the edge on Polak offensively, but Polak's better defensively - so that's probably a saw-off as well. Streit's more mobile that Phaneuf and will probably put up more points, but not as physical. I'd give him the slight edge, but, of the 5, he's the only one I'd say is arguably a better all-round option than their Leaf counterpart.

 

[pmrules]

Well, I maybe wrong, but I don't think there were many that honestly predicted a bottom 5 finish last year, even with those changes. 

But like I said, a lot of people around here will always be optimistic with their predictions. There's a lot of "well, if X, Y and Z all happen then the Leafs could be right in the mix!" without realizing that every team has a similar X, Y and Z.

You say that the changes should have made 8th worst the lowpoint but that essentially assumes that any player on the Leafs who had a good year in 2013-14 was incapable of being worse the next year when we know that players ebb and flow.

It would have been unreasonable for anyone to look at Bernier's 2013-2014 numbers and say "Well, he'll be that good forever then".

Exactly - Players ebb and flow - that's why 8th is the starting point.  They either flow up or down based on player performance - and based on the minor moves you talked about, 8th (give or take) is where they should have landed at the end, provided that players are at least consistent. 

But what happened?  Key players Kessel, Bozak, Bernier, Kadri all had bad years compared to the year prior...add to that the team quit...so they trended down from 8 all the way to 4.  If those guys had just held their performance from the prior year and didn't quit, there's no way they finish 4th.  No one expected a 4th last finish - optimists (me)/pessimists (you) alike. 

On paper this team should trend down from last year based on losing Kessel alone.  I don't know where the scoring is going to come from - Hopefully Kadri has a great year in place of Bozak on PP1 - maybe thats a start.  But I don't believe they were the 4th worst team last year, on paper.  My guess is the Leaf's will likely be in that 4-8th last range when all is said and done.

Just my opinion.