Why William Nylander is too good for the AHL & why Red Wings' Model isn't best

[Kin]

The Leafs shouldn't be in any rush to bring guys up given that the team won't be competing for a playoff spot any time soon.  Why waste a year on the player's ELC?  I'd rather have players come up when they're "over-ready" and the team is in such a state that they can benefit with a playoff push.  You control the contract situation which benefits the team over a longer period of time given the cap system such as it is.

I don't know if you saw it but in the armchair GM thread I wondered if burning a ELC year early might actually be advantageous in terms of long-term cap hit. I think there's a pretty compelling reason to think so provided Nylander has a successful first few seasons.

 

[bustaheims]

There's no real appreciable goal that bringing Nylander up would actually achieve so unless people feel his growth is being stunted by the AHL there's no real purpose in bringing him up outside of making the viewing experience marginally more interesting.

I feel the same way. I don't see a benefit to the team, nor to Nylander in bringing him up right now. Better to keep him in a situation where he's shown he's going to be successful and allow him to continue build confidence in his game. The Leafs don't need him right now. Give him a full year in the A, and have him start with the team next season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I agree with some of the other posts that, in terms of Nylander's personal future, it probably doesn't really matter if he starts this season or next season.

So the next concern comes down to which option makes the most sense in regards to his current and future contracts. The conventional wisdom has generally been you want to slide Nylander's contract for as long as possible, so you can take the most advantage of his cheap 3 ELC seasons. But as Nik has pointed out, that might not be the case because by sliding his contract another season he'll be negotiating his first RFA deal at the age of 24 with 3 full NHL seasons under his belt. Would it be more worthwhile to get that deal done when he's 23 and only has 2.25 or 2.5 seasons played? But if the Leafs feel that way then the best plan of action would be to just give him 10-12 games at the end of the season.

I think another issue would be how much you want his first 3 seasons in the NHL overlapping with Marner's. I think that we can all agree that Marner will very likely be up with the Leafs next season. He's completely dominating the OHL for a 2nd straight season and the AHL isn't an option for him. Do we want both him and Marner to be rookies next season? Or would it make more sense to get Nylander now to maybe take a bit of pressure off Marner next season? Or does it even matter? Then you look at the other side of this and think do we want to be negotiating both of their 1st RFA deals at the same time, or would it make more sense to have those two events spread out by a season?

 

[Bullfrog]

I think another issue would be how much you want his first 3 seasons in the NHL overlapping with Marner's. I think that we can all agree that Marner will very likely be up with the Leafs next season. He's completely dominating the OHL for a 2nd straight season and the AHL isn't an option for him. Do we want both him and Marner to be rookies next season? Or would it make more sense to get Nylander now to maybe take a bit of pressure off Marner next season? Or does it even matter? Then you look at the other side of this and think do we want to be negotiating both of their 1st RFA deals at the same time, or would it make more sense to have those two events spread out by a season?

I don't think it matter's too much have both rookies on the team. Even in that case, I think Nylander will still be quite ahead in his development after spending 1.25 seasons in the AHL and playing in the Swedish elite league. I think they'd both be treated as rookies, but Marner would be more sheltered.

 

[Kin]

I think another issue would be how much you want his first 3 seasons in the NHL overlapping with Marner's. I think that we can all agree that Marner will very likely be up with the Leafs next season. He's completely dominating the OHL for a 2nd straight season and the AHL isn't an option for him. Do we want both him and Marner to be rookies next season? Or would it make more sense to get Nylander now to maybe take a bit of pressure off Marner next season? Or does it even matter? Then you look at the other side of this and think do we want to be negotiating both of their 1st RFA deals at the same time, or would it make more sense to have those two events spread out by a season?

It's an interesting point you make about the grouping of rookies in the league. I was thinking about this with regards to Colorado and the way they haven't really built that well on a pretty impressive collection of young forwards as well as Edmonton.

While I don't think you want too many rookies on a team at any one point I wonder if in a situation where there's a lot of hype attached to any one rookie having another around lessens the pressure rather than increases it.

Although, that said, with fingers crossed the Leafs might have the challenge of integrating three high profile rookies next year and that might be where you're dwelling into overwhelming territory.

 

[Bender]

I agree with some of the other posts that, in terms of Nylander's personal future, it probably doesn't really matter if he starts this season or next season.

So the next concern comes down to which option makes the most sense in regards to his current and future contracts. The conventional wisdom has generally been you want to slide Nylander's contract for as long as possible, so you can take the most advantage of his cheap 3 ELC seasons. But as Nik has pointed out, that might not be the case because by sliding his contract another season he'll be negotiating his first RFA deal at the age of 24 with 3 full NHL seasons under his belt. Would it be more worthwhile to get that deal done when he's 23 and only has 2.25 or 2.5 seasons played? But if the Leafs feel that way then the best plan of action would be to just give him 10-12 games at the end of the season.

I think another issue would be how much you want his first 3 seasons in the NHL overlapping with Marner's. I think that we can all agree that Marner will very likely be up with the Leafs next season. He's completely dominating the OHL for a 2nd straight season and the AHL isn't an option for him. Do we want both him and Marner to be rookies next season? Or would it make more sense to get Nylander now to maybe take a bit of pressure off Marner next season? Or does it even matter? Then you look at the other side of this and think do we want to be negotiating both of their 1st RFA deals at the same time, or would it make more sense to have those two events spread out by a season?

Do you really think Marner will actually be ready next year though? I mean, he looked very, very out of place in camp this year. I know a lot can change in a year but physical development takes time and being acclimatized to playing against full grown men takes time.... I'm not sure what we can do.

 

[Kin]

Do you really think Marner will actually be ready next year though? I mean, he looked very, very out of place in camp this year. I know a lot can change in a year but physical development takes time and being acclimatized to playing against full grown men takes time.... I'm not sure what we can do.

I think it depends on what you mean by ready. He probably won't step into the league and dominate but he'll probably be capable of having the sort of year Jonathan Drouin had last year.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Do you really think Marner will actually be ready next year though? I mean, he looked very, very out of place in camp this year. I know a lot can change in a year but physical development takes time and being acclimatized to playing against full grown men takes time.... I'm not sure what we can do.

I don't know how much stock I'd put in his preseason performance. If I remember correctly he only played in 2 games I think. Overall his performance definitely wasn't anything to write home about but I remember seeing a flash or two of what he can do.

For me personally I don't even think it's up for debate whether he'll be in the NHL next season or not. I don't want him sleepwalking through his 4 OHL season. And as Bullfrog pointed out, regardless of when Nylander starts there'll be more pressure on him to produce next season and Marner will be the one in a more sheltered role because of their respective experience and age. I'm sure there will be more bumps in the road for him because he's jumping past the AHL, but I don't think that it'll effect him poorly long-term.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Carlton, Drance from PPP made much the same case as you regarding bringing Nylander and Marner on board together and the prospect of having to give them both a big pay bump in the same offseason, it's an interesting wrinkle for sure.

I wonder if they'd entertain sending Marner abroad next year to play top line minutes in one of the top European leagues.

The thing I've been thinking about in the whole should they bring Nylander up or not debate, is that Babcock seems a real stickler in terms of faceoff ability of the centers, I could be wrong but I don't think Nylander is great in the faceoff dot yet. So if he comes up to the Leafs, he's unlikely to be a top two center, do they shift him to the wing? At that point isn't he better leavening his craft in the AHL playing twenty minutes a night and taking a ton of draws?

 

[Kin]

The thing I've been thinking about in the whole should they bring Nylander up or not debate, is that Babcock seems a real stickler in terms of faceoff ability of the centers, I could be wrong but I don't think Nylander is great in the faceoff dot yet. So if he comes up to the Leafs, he's unlikely to be a top two center, do they shift him to the wing? At that point isn't he better leavening his craft in the AHL playing twenty minutes a night and taking a ton of draws?

I really have to think that Babcock is enough of a pragmatist to realize that most centers when they come into the league aren't great on the draw and that he'd have a pretty fair amount of leeway for a top prospect with a long term future at center.

Whether Nylander's future is really there is another question.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I really have to think that Babcock is enough of a pragmatist to realize that most centers when they come into the league aren't great on the draw and that he'd have a pretty fair amount of leeway for a top prospect with a long term future at center.

Whether Nylander's future is really there is another question.

Even if his future is at centre, it's probably likely that he'll play his first NHL season on the wing, ala Seguin or MacKinnon. Especially if both Kadri and Bozak are still on the team at that point.

 

[Highlander]

Bozak traded for 1st round pick now that his been Babitized

 

[herman]

Not that I think these will be who we have left, but assuming all our UFA are moved out at the deadline, or cut loose at the end of the season and we couldn't trade any of our long-term contracts and re-signed all RFAs...

JvR - Kadri - Komarov
Lupul - Bozak - Winnik
? - Holland - ?
? - Froese - ?
Horton

Phaneuf - Gardiner
Rielly - Hunwick
Marincin - Robidas
Harrington - Corrado

Bernier
?

The only players not locked down in an NHL position from the current roster might be Froese, Marincin, Harrington, Corrado.

I think we're looking at 2-3 Marlies post-deadline, and another 2-3 debuting next season: the post-deadliner options are likely the ones who've NHL'd before: Leivo, Percy, Panik, Carrick, Loov, Leipsic, Hyman; 2016-17 will add to the group Nylander, Marner, Matthews/Chychrun/Puljujarvi, Soshnikov, Brown.

I don't see any reason to bring up Nylander this year that wouldn't be counter-productive to patient building/picking higher.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I really have to think that Babcock is enough of a pragmatist to realize that most centers when they come into the league aren't great on the draw and that he'd have a pretty fair amount of leeway for a top prospect with a long term future at center.

Whether Nylander's future is really there is another question.

Even if his future is at centre, it's probably likely that he'll play his first NHL season on the wing, ala Seguin or MacKinnon. Especially if both Kadri and Bozak are still on the team at that point.

With that being said, does his net worth increase more if he masters the art of playing center and winning face offs in the AHL as opposed to playing wing on the big club?

 

[Kin]

With that being said, does his net worth increase more if he masters the art of playing center and winning face offs in the AHL as opposed to playing wing on the big club?

I don't know that an extended AHL stretch changes that centers, by and large, really have to master those things at the NHL level.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

With that being said, does his net worth increase more if he masters the art of playing center and winning face offs in the AHL as opposed to playing wing on the big club?

I don't know that an extended AHL stretch changes that centers, by and large, really have to master those things at the NHL level.

A guy like Froese was great in the circle in the AHL though and has brought that to the NHL.

On that subject, I read that Froese was over 65% in the d-zone but under 40% everywhere else. Probably means he's good against offensively talented players who are just ok on the draw, but when he faces other teams faceoff specialists he suffers some.

 

[bustaheims]

Not that I think these will be who we have left, but assuming all our UFA are moved out at the deadline, or cut loose at the end of the season and we couldn't trade any of our long-term contracts and re-signed all RFAs...

The only players not locked down in an NHL position from the current roster might be Froese, Marincin, Harrington, Corrado.

I think we're looking at 2-3 Marlies post-deadline, and another 2-3 debuting next season: the post-deadliner options are likely the ones who've NHL'd before: Leivo, Percy, Panik, Carrick, Loov, Leipsic, Hyman; 2016-17 will add to the group Nylander, Marner, Matthews/Chychrun/Puljujarvi, Soshnikov, Brown.

I don't see any reason to bring up Nylander this year that wouldn't be counter-productive to patient building/picking higher.

The Leafs are also likely going to have to take back contracts to make some of their deadline trades work, and those players will be used as filler for the rest of the season if they can't be moved as well. They may not actually need any of the Marlies to fill roster spots.

 

[Kin]

A guy like Froese was great in the circle in the AHL though and has brought that to the NHL.

Sure, he's also 24 though.

Take someone like Pavel Datsyuk. He's terrific on the draw but despite not being a NHL regular until he was 23 still had two full seasons with the Red Wings below 50%.

 

[herman]

Not that I think these will be who we have left, but assuming all our UFA are moved out at the deadline, or cut loose at the end of the season and we couldn't trade any of our long-term contracts and re-signed all RFAs...

The only players not locked down in an NHL position from the current roster might be Froese, Marincin, Harrington, Corrado.

I think we're looking at 2-3 Marlies post-deadline, and another 2-3 debuting next season: the post-deadliner options are likely the ones who've NHL'd before: Leivo, Percy, Panik, Carrick, Loov, Leipsic, Hyman; 2016-17 will add to the group Nylander, Marner, Matthews/Chychrun/Puljujarvi, Soshnikov, Brown.

I don't see any reason to bring up Nylander this year that wouldn't be counter-productive to patient building/picking higher.

The Leafs are also likely going to have to take back contracts to make some of their deadline trades work, and those players will be used as filler for the rest of the season if they can't be moved as well. They may not actually need any of the Marlies to fill roster spots.

Very true.

I do think some of the Leafs under contract get moved though.

 

[bustaheims]

I do think some of the Leafs under contract get moved though.

Possibly, but in those situation, the Leafs will almost certainly be taking a contract back - at least for the rest of this season, and possibly beyond.