2011 Blue Jays/MLB Thread

[L K]

Dustin Parkes, fast becoming my favourite Blue Jays writer, has this terrific article about the "need" for a closer.

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/11/10/theres-no-need-to-spend-money-on-a-proven-closer/

First of all, of the 25 blown saves that Blue Jays relievers committed last season, three times two blown saves occurred in the same game. Of the 23 games in which a blown save occurred, seven of those games still resulted in a Toronto Blue Jays victory. Of the sixteen losses resulting from a blown save, only half of the blown saves occurred in the ninth inning or later, when a ?proven closer? type would be more likely to have been used. Of the eight saves blown in the ninth inning or later, two were blown by non-closers who were only pitching because the closer wasn?t available. This leaves us with six losses in which the team?s closer blew a save or was taken out of the game in the ninth inning and the replacement reliever blew a save.

That I will agree with...but I wouldn't be opposed to adding a guy at the top of the pen which helps push guys back down a slot or two.  They need a few arms added to the bullpen to improve it and if they can get a guy who's reasonably affordable (obviously don't break the bank to sign Papelbon) it adds to the depth, even if it's for the generally over-valued closer. 
Say they went after Huston Street and ran a closing platoon of Street and Francisco.  One closes, the other is the 8th inning guy.  That pushes Janssen down to be a guy who can bridge the 6th/7th inning more often.  Adding depth never hurts the pen.  They also need a good 2-3 inning guy and it probably wouldn't hurt to have another 6th starter in the bullpen either.

 

[Kin]

That I will agree with...but I wouldn't be opposed to adding a guy at the top of the pen which helps push guys back down a slot or two.  They need a few arms added to the bullpen to improve it and if they can get a guy who's reasonably affordable (obviously don't break the bank to sign Papelbon) it adds to the depth, even if it's for the generally over-valued closer. 
Say they went after Huston Street and ran a closing platoon of Street and Francisco.  One closes, the other is the 8th inning guy.  That pushes Janssen down to be a guy who can bridge the 6th/7th inning more often.  Adding depth never hurts the pen.  They also need a good 2-3 inning guy and it probably wouldn't hurt to have another 6th starter in the bullpen either.

Read the article!

The answer to the Blue Jays problems isn?t a ?proven closer.? Like most teams, they need additional bullpen depth that one pitcher can?t provide. Forget names like Papelbon, Heath Bell or Joe Nathan. Think about relievers like Todd Coffey, Mike Gonzalez, Darren Oliver, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler or Michael Wuertz. And dare I say, even the criminally underappreciated Frank Francisco. Toronto should be looking at relievers who aren?t likely to get multiple year deals that drain finances.

 

[Andy007]

That I will agree with...but I wouldn't be opposed to adding a guy at the top of the pen which helps push guys back down a slot or two.  They need a few arms added to the bullpen to improve it and if they can get a guy who's reasonably affordable (obviously don't break the bank to sign Papelbon) it adds to the depth, even if it's for the generally over-valued closer. 
Say they went after Huston Street and ran a closing platoon of Street and Francisco.  One closes, the other is the 8th inning guy.  That pushes Janssen down to be a guy who can bridge the 6th/7th inning more often.  Adding depth never hurts the pen.  They also need a good 2-3 inning guy and it probably wouldn't hurt to have another 6th starter in the bullpen either.

Read the article!

The answer to the Blue Jays problems isn?t a ?proven closer.? Like most teams, they need additional bullpen depth that one pitcher can?t provide. Forget names like Papelbon, Heath Bell or Joe Nathan. Think about relievers like Todd Coffey, Mike Gonzalez, Darren Oliver, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler or Michael Wuertz. And dare I say, even the criminally underappreciated Frank Francisco. Toronto should be looking at relievers who aren?t likely to get multiple year deals that drain finances.

I really think he is bang on with most of his assessment except for the "criminally underrated" Frank Francisco, which describes his pitching subsequent to his 'closer' designation and not during that reign of terror.

 

[L K]

That I will agree with...but I wouldn't be opposed to adding a guy at the top of the pen which helps push guys back down a slot or two.  They need a few arms added to the bullpen to improve it and if they can get a guy who's reasonably affordable (obviously don't break the bank to sign Papelbon) it adds to the depth, even if it's for the generally over-valued closer. 
Say they went after Huston Street and ran a closing platoon of Street and Francisco.  One closes, the other is the 8th inning guy.  That pushes Janssen down to be a guy who can bridge the 6th/7th inning more often.  Adding depth never hurts the pen.  They also need a good 2-3 inning guy and it probably wouldn't hurt to have another 6th starter in the bullpen either.

Read the article!

The answer to the Blue Jays problems isn?t a ?proven closer.? Like most teams, they need additional bullpen depth that one pitcher can?t provide. Forget names like Papelbon, Heath Bell or Joe Nathan. Think about relievers like Todd Coffey, Mike Gonzalez, Darren Oliver, Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler or Michael Wuertz. And dare I say, even the criminally underappreciated Frank Francisco. Toronto should be looking at relievers who aren?t likely to get multiple year deals that drain finances.

I really think he is bang on with most of his assessment except for the "criminally underrated" Frank Francisco, which describes his pitching subsequent to his 'closer' designation and not during that reign of terror.

Francisco had an awful first half of the year and was pretty dominant in the second half.  His season numbers were fine and if you get him back on a reasonable 1-3 year deal, I'm all for it.  When he throws strikes, he's very hard to hit.

 

[Andy007]

I agree with you about Francisco LK; he was fantastic AFTER taken out of the closer role. He did seem to settle down after that and I think he went back to saving games did he not?

Hopefully he worked through whatever was ailing him the first month and a half. But really, he was in the 4million$ range, which, on a multi-year deal, sounds like a pretty big investment going against the ideas the writer NIK quoted.

 

[Kin]

I really think he is bang on with most of his assessment except for the "criminally underrated" Frank Francisco, which describes his pitching subsequent to his 'closer' designation and not during that reign of terror.

As the article notes, you have to judge relief pitchers on more than one year of data.

 

[Andy007]

I really think he is bang on with most of his assessment except for the "criminally underrated" Frank Francisco, which describes his pitching subsequent to his 'closer' designation and not during that reign of terror.

As the article notes, you have to judge relief pitchers on more than one year of data.

You mean, take into consideration his years in Texas where he saved very few games and was ousted as a closer the preceding season?

I like Francisco as a strong, cheap arm, the former which he proved the final 3 months of the season. If we need to give him a raise (which would put him in the 5 million$ range) for a number of years then, well, I wonder why we didn't just re-sign Downs.

 

[Kin]

You mean, take into consideration his years in Texas where he saved very few games and was ousted as a closer the preceding season?

No, I mean the years in Texas where he pitched pretty well, which is most of them. In '10 for instance, when not pitching in the hitters park that is Texas, he had a 2.22 ERA with one HR allowed and 29 strikeouts in 24 innings. In '09 he was at 2.70 with 3 HR and 25 K's in 23 innings.

 

[Andy007]

You mean, take into consideration his years in Texas where he saved very few games and was ousted as a closer the preceding season?

No, I mean the years in Texas where he pitched pretty well, which is most of them. In '10 for instance, when not pitching in the hitters park that is Texas, he had a 2.22 ERA with one HR allowed and 29 strikeouts in 24 innings. In '09 he was at 2.70 with 3 HR and 25 K's in 23 innings.

24 and 23 innings? What, does he only pitch on fridays?

Anyway that would be great if he wasn't earning 4-5 millions dollars on a multi-year contract.

 

[Kin]

24 and 23 innings? What, does he only pitch on fridays?

Uh, hate to break it to you there John McGraw but that's, you know, roughly half a season for a closer/set-up man in the major leagues.

 

[Andy007]

24 and 23 innings? What, does he only pitch on fridays?

Uh, hate to break it to you there John McGraw but that's, you know, roughly half a season for a closer/set-up man in the major leagues.

Okay and you are talking about two separate "roughly" half seasons? That really isn't a big sample size, Tim.

But really I have mostly praised Francisco in this thread so I dont really know what this discussion is about. Also, care to comment on his price tag, considering it contradicts your boy's article comments?

 

[Kin]

Okay and you are talking about two separate "roughly" half seasons? That really isn't a big sample size, Tim.

No, I'm talking about three full seasons where, in each of them, he pitched fairly well. I was just trying to put his Texas years in a park-neutral context.

But really I have mostly praised Francisco in this thread so I dont really know what this discussion is about.

He's a good relief pitcher who's pitched pretty well in each of the last three years. That doesn't carry with popular opinion and, as such, he was labelled as underrated. Hope that helps.

Also, care to comment on his price tag, considering it contradicts your boy's article comments?

You mean the make-believe price-tag you think he might get? No, I'm not sure that's worth commenting on.

As for what he did get, sad truth of the matter is that in order to get a competent relief pitcher you're probably going to have spend roughly in that range.

 

[Andy007]

Hey thanks dude! Your explanations really "helped" as you so condescendingly put it. It's hard to get a level read on things in makebelieve land, which is probably why I responded to one of your posts in the firstp lace.

ANYWHO, I'm wondering who's going to play 2nd next year. Would it be crazy to re-sign Hill on a deflated contract?

 

[Deebo]

Hey thanks dude! Your explanations really "helped" as you so condescendingly put it. It's hard to get a level read on things in makebelieve land, which is probably why I responded to one of your posts in the firstp lace.

ANYWHO, I'm wondering who's going to play 2nd next year. Would it be crazy to re-sign Hill on a deflated contract?

Word coming out now is that the jays are interested in FA Jamey Carroll, and were among 3 finalists for his services as of yesterday.

From Jon Morosi of FOX sports.

 

[Andy007]

Hmm I don't know alot about Carroll. His On Base numbers look great though. I wonder how he is defensively?

 

[maplesyrup]

The Phillies have agreed to sign Jonathan Papelbon, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical.

 

[maplesyrup]

It appears Carroll is signing with the Twins.

 

[Peter D.]

The Phillies have agreed to sign Jonathan Papelbon, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical.

I wasn't totally against signing Papelbon, but I'm glad we didn't get him (especially at that money), and even more glad he ended up in the National League. 

Sounds like the Marlins are going to be major players this off season.  They apparently have a good chance of signing Reyes, they've courted Pujols, and Buehrle has paid a visit as well (not to mention the Guillen connection).  I didn't realize they were getting a new ballpark next season -- looks pretty awesome.

 

[maplesyrup]

The Phillies have agreed to sign Jonathan Papelbon, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical.

I wasn't totally against signing Papelbon, but I'm glad we didn't get him (especially at that money), and even more glad he ended up in the National League. 

Sounds like the Marlins are going to be major players this off season.  They apparently have a good chance of signing Reyes, they've courted Pujols, and Buehrle has paid a visit as well (not to mention the Guillen connection).  I didn't realize they were getting a new ballpark next season -- looks pretty awesome.

Yeah, the Marlins seems to be in on a couple biggies... As far as Papelbon is concerned, I really didn't want to surrender a pick to Boston.

 

[Kin]

Sounds like the Marlins are going to be major players this off season.  They apparently have a good chance of signing Reyes, they've courted Pujols, and Buehrle has paid a visit as well (not to mention the Guillen connection).  I didn't realize they were getting a new ballpark next season -- looks pretty awesome.

I'd wait until they actually sign someone big before I really believe they'll be big players. A lot of times teams in the position they're in get players to take meetings/use their deep pockets and willingness to spend money to jack up the offers they get from the clubs they really want to sign with. It's still not an organization that's held in really high regard.