2011 Blue Jays/MLB Thread

[Heroic Shrimp]

DShulman_ESPN Dan Shulman
Nothing confirmed on Darvish, and we may not know till Tuesday. If it's true, it's the beginning of a new era for the #jays #bluejays
2 minutes ago

That strikes me as a bit of an overstatement.

You'd think they would have learned to ease back on the hyperbole after previous "new era" Japanese players.

At the same time, signing Yu would indicate that Rogers is willing to spend competitive dollars, which is obviously of considerable significance.

Arguably he could indeed be meaning a new era in terms of the Jays' spending habits.

 

[Fanatic]

JimBowdenESPNxmJIM BOWDEN
multiple sources cooberating the NY Post Report that the Blue Jays won the bidding for Yu Darvish...they have until Tues to complete a deal

 

[Fanatic]

DShulman_ESPN Dan Shulman
Nothing confirmed on Darvish, and we may not know till Tuesday. If it's true, it's the beginning of a new era for the #jays #bluejays
2 minutes ago

That strikes me as a bit of an overstatement.

You'd think they would have learned to ease back on the hyperbole after previous "new era" Japanese players.

At the same time, signing Yu would indicate that Rogers is willing to spend competitive dollars, which is obviously of considerable significance.

Arguably he could indeed be meaning a new era in terms of the Jays' spending habits.

I think that is more along the lines of what was meant. The new era of "going for it" rather than sitting back and watching everyone else going for it. We will know soon. No reason for the spending to stop with Yu. Go big or go home!

 

[Trolloc]

DShulman_ESPN Dan Shulman
Nothing confirmed on Darvish, and we may not know till Tuesday. If it's true, it's the beginning of a new era for the #jays #bluejays
2 minutes ago

That strikes me as a bit of an overstatement.

You'd think they would have learned to ease back on the hyperbole after previous "new era" Japanese players.

At the same time, signing Yu would indicate that Rogers is willing to spend competitive dollars, which is obviously of considerable significance.

Arguably he could indeed be meaning a new era in terms of the Jays' spending habits.

I think that is more along the lines of what was meant. The new era of "going for it" rather than sitting back and watching everyone else going for it. We will know soon. No reason for the spending to stop with Yu. Go big or go home!

Yeah. I agree and don't think it is an overstatement at all.

We've gone from a week ago thinking the Jays wont spend until attendance increases to spending over 50 million just to talk to a potentially elite pitcher.

It is very exciting the willingnes of management to spend money on someone like Darvish who is a high risk signing. It is a sign that this franchise is finally making its move.

Of course, we could have lost the Darvish sweep stakes and these all rumors.

 

[Fanatic]

Buster_ESPNBuster Olney
TOR is one of the teams in on Beltran; you wonder if he's serious about them, or if (like some players) he has no interest in playing there.


Buster_ESPNBuster Olney
If the Jays are, in fact, the winning bidders for Darvish--as many execs believe--they will continue to develop into a very dangerous team.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

JimBowdenESPNxmJIM BOWDEN
multiple sources cooberating the NY Post Report that the Blue Jays won the bidding for Yu Darvish...they have until Tues to complete a deal

Man, that guy butchered "corroborating".

 

[Kin]

JimBowdenESPNxmJIM BOWDEN
multiple sources cooberating the NY Post Report that the Blue Jays won the bidding for Yu Darvish...they have until Tues to complete a deal

Man, that guy butchered "corroborating".

As well as the process. If the Jays are the high bidders than the Fighters have until Tuesday to decide to accept the bid at which point the Jays would then have 30 days to complete a deal with Darvish.

 

[Kin]

You'd think they would have learned to ease back on the hyperbole after previous "new era" Japanese players.

At the same time, signing Yu would indicate that Rogers is willing to spend competitive dollars, which is obviously of considerable significance.

Arguably he could indeed be meaning a new era in terms of the Jays' spending habits.

There are, if anything, more problems with that interpretation. I mean, for starters, the Jays wouldn't have committed dollar one to the deal until they actually have Darvish signed. That's not a mere formality after winning the posting fee. The Jays and Darvish could be miles apart on terms of a contract. I still don't think signing Darvish would represent a "new era" for the Jays but, if it did, then this isn't signing Darvish.

But more importantly, I mean, the issue with Rogers as owners isn't really a lack of willingness to spend money. They're still the ownership group that signed AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan, extended Doc and gave Vernon Wells 120+ million. As recently as '08 the Jays were at 97 million dollars in terms of opening day payroll. Provided Darvish doesn't ask for more money than Pujols this contract wouldn't represent a new high for Rogers spending either in terms of on a single player or on the team. Even if you want to count a posting fee as Salary then, assuming Darvish gets something in the range of 12-15 million a year for five years then you're still, if my math is correct, roughly 20 million dollars off that 2008 figure.

I think Darvish is a unique enough player and circumstance that signing him doesn't tell us too much about who they may sign in the future. Regardless it would take signing Darvish and Fielder and Madson and....I don't know, Beltran, for the Jays to be significantly above where'd they'd been payroll wise only a couple years ago.

 

[maplesyrup]

No news but sound like there's a source reporting out of Japan...

RGriffinStar Richard Griffin
No change in Darvish news tho Japanese source reports Japan believes Jays have won bidding. Today's phrase "Hajimemashite"Nice to meet yu.
1 minute ago

 

[Newbury]

I really did not expect that (if it is indeed true they had the highest bid). I don't know too much about him, but from what I've been hearing it sounds like it would be a great addition to the rotation, and, I'm guessing, it would mean that the Gonzalez talks are probably finished.

 

[Trolloc]

You'd think they would have learned to ease back on the hyperbole after previous "new era" Japanese players.

At the same time, signing Yu would indicate that Rogers is willing to spend competitive dollars, which is obviously of considerable significance.

Arguably he could indeed be meaning a new era in terms of the Jays' spending habits.

There are, if anything, more problems with that interpretation. I mean, for starters, the Jays wouldn't have committed dollar one to the deal until they actually have Darvish signed. That's not a mere formality after winning the posting fee. The Jays and Darvish could be miles apart on terms of a contract. I still don't think signing Darvish would represent a "new era" for the Jays but, if it did, then this isn't signing Darvish.

But more importantly, I mean, the issue with Rogers as owners isn't really a lack of willingness to spend money. They're still the ownership group that signed AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan, extended Doc and gave Vernon Wells 120+ million. As recently as '08 the Jays were at 97 million dollars in terms of opening day payroll. Provided Darvish doesn't ask for more money than Pujols this contract wouldn't represent a new high for Rogers spending either in terms of on a single player or on the team. Even if you want to count a posting fee as Salary then, assuming Darvish gets something in the range of 12-15 million a year for five years then you're still, if my math is correct, roughly 20 million dollars off that 2008 figure.

I think Darvish is a unique enough player and circumstance that signing him doesn't tell us too much about who they may sign in the future. Regardless it would take signing Darvish and Fielder and Madson and....I don't know, Beltran, for the Jays to be significantly above where'd they'd been payroll wise only a couple years ago.

I think the difference here is that Burnette and Ryan were proven commodities, of course with risk but proven players nonetheless. With Darvish we are committing a large sum of money to a player with a serious possibility of not working out or being vastly overpaid for an extended period of time. I think along with Bautista extension, this is the riskiest thing this franchise has done in some time.

 

[Kin]

I think the difference here is that Burnette and Ryan were proven commodities, of course with risk but proven players nonetheless.With Darvish we are committing a large sum of money to a player with a serious possibility of not working out or being vastly overpaid for an extended period of time. I think along with Bautista extension, this is the riskiest thing this franchise has done in some time.

I don't think either guy can be justifiably called proven when they signed. They were players of some talent who'd had ok years but neither guy had a consistent track record of overwhelming success. Both signing were risky and neither paid off. There may be slightly more risk to Darvish but it's not overwhelming and certainly not much in the ways of a "new era".

Not to mention that, if the argument being made is that this new era is catergorized by a signing that is riskier and less likely to pay off than the Burnett and Ryan signings than, well, I'll take the old era please.

 

[Trolloc]

I think the difference here is that Burnette and Ryan were proven commodities, of course with risk but proven players nonetheless.With Darvish we are committing a large sum of money to a player with a serious possibility of not working out or being vastly overpaid for an extended period of time. I think along with Bautista extension, this is the riskiest thing this franchise has done in some time.

I don't think either guy can be justifiably called proven when they signed. They were players of some talent who'd had ok years but neither guy had a consistent track record of overwhelming success. Both signing were risky and neither paid off. There may be slightly more risk to Darvish but it's not overwhelming and certainly not much in the ways of a "new era".

Not to mention that, if the argument being made is that this new era is catergorized by a signing that is riskier and less likely to pay off than the Burnett and Ryan signings than, well, I'll take the old era please.

I disagree. I think there was risk involved with AJ/BJ, but, only in regards to over payment and health. They both had success at the major league level prior to being with the Jays.
Burnette had two great seasons under his belt. Ryan had one great as a closer and two solid ones as a reliever. The risk for both was if they could stay healthy.

With Darvish. You have health concerns in regards to how will he adapt to the MLB game. Living in a new country along with are more difficult schedule with less days rest than he is accustomed too. There is a great chance that he burns out midway through the season. We also have zero idea how he will adapt to the North American game. He is a great pitcher, but, the quality of batters in Japan is inferior. With AJ and BJ we knew what we would get out of them, just the risk was for how long. We don't know if we will get anything out of Darvish.

I feel this is the biggest gamble the Jays have made in a long time. For that reason, I don't think this "New Era" is an overstatement. They are spending a ton of cash on a complete wild card. We are paying hypothetically, 50 million plus...say 13 million for 5 years for a prospect. We also outbid the biggest spenders in the league to get him.

With that being said you raised a good point "That's not a mere formality after winning the posting fee. The Jays and Darvish could be miles apart on terms of a contract.". Also, we are basing these discussion off of rumoea, maybe the Jays weren't even close to winning the bid.

I haven't seen this much excitement among fans in a very long time. People are getting excited at the prospect of signing Darvish when a week ago they were ready to crucify Rogers for that statement by AA.

 

[Kin]

I disagree. I think there was risk involved with AJ/BJ, but, only in regards to over payment and health. They both had success at the major league level prior to being with the Jays.

But having any measure of success at the major league level doesn't mean a player is risk free in terms of performance(and, I mean, outside of too much money and health what other risk is there?). Contrary to your assertions Burnett did not have any "great" years pre-Blue Jays(his career high was 3.8 WAR) and Ryan was in a position where there are always year to year question marks, it's why the kind of deal Ryan signed has fallen so far out of vogue.

With Darvish. You have health concerns in regards to how will he adapt to the MLB game. Living in a new country along with are more difficult schedule with less days rest than he is accustomed too. There is a great chance that he burns out midway through the season. We also have zero idea how he will adapt to the North American game. He is a great pitcher, but, the quality of batters in Japan is inferior. With AJ and BJ we knew what we would get out of them, just the risk was for how long. We don't know if we will get anything out of Darvish.

That's an exaggeration. Stats from the Japanese league, or any league, combined with scouting do give an idea of how a player will play in the major leagues. That's kind of the fundamental basis of amateur scouting. There's a reason Darvish is getting the hype he is and it's the same reason Strasburg got a massive bonus. Performance at lower levels is an indicator of future success. Is it guaranteed? No. But nothing is guaranteed in terms of a ballplayer's year to year performance.

I feel this is the biggest gamble the Jays have made in a long time. For that reason, I don't think this "New Era" is an overstatement. They are spending a ton of cash on a complete wild card. We are paying hypothetically, 50 million plus...say 13 million for 5 years for a prospect. We also outbid the biggest spenders in the league to get him.

Again, the idea that the Blue Jays making a slightly bigger gamble than they have in the past, and I'd argue that the Vernon Wells contract is by far the riskiest thing the franchise has done in the last ten years up to and including the Darvish deal, doesn't really make for a new era because of the uniqueness of the circumstances and the fact that a willingness to sign one free agent, regardless of any supposed assurances of their success, doesn't in and of itself make for a seismic shift in the team's payroll.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Assuming... What if Darvish turns out to be the biggest flop the Blue Jays ever signed, or, the best player they ever signed in a while?

It could turn out either way.  Don't think there's much middle here.

 

[maplesyrup]

Assuming... What if Darvish turns out to be the biggest flop the Blue Jays ever signed, or, the best player they ever signed in a while?

It could turn out either way.  Don't think there's much middle here.

I've heard anywhere from a legitimate ace to eventual closer in the mold of Denis Eckersley. The opinions of him are all over the place sure, but most I've read have him as a "top 2 starter in a good rotation."  He could easily wind up being just a middle of the rotation guy too so I'll have to disagree with you here... There's a lot of room in the middle it seems. One way or another, I don't think there's much of a flop factor here.

Edit: and if we do wind up with high-priced middle of the rotation guy? Is that a horrible thing?

 

[Kin]

...so I'll have to disagree with you here... There's a lot of room in the middle it seems.

Yeah, the dichotomy presented doesn't really make a ton of sense. Looking at Japanese pitchers that have come over a middle of the road success would seem to be the likeliest possibility. Nomo and Matsuzaka were good, not great. I don't see why Darvish would be boom or bust.

 

[Kin]

Also, Rollins re-signs with Phillies, Latos traded to Reds for Alonso|(there goes the Joey Votto dreams)

 

[maplesyrup]

jonmorosi Jon Morosi
Don Nomura, Darvish's agent, tweets that Darvish announcement comes late morning Japan time tomorrow -- so around 9 pm ET tonight.
7 minutes ago

jonmorosi Jon Morosi
Again: Many executives with #MLB clubs believe #BlueJays submitted the high bid for Darvish. But neither #MLB nor #NPB has confirmed this.
1 minute ago

Great... 9PM... and I'll need to hit the sack early. 

 

[maplesyrup]

Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Most folks guessing/assuming Jays have won Darvish bidding. But just got off the phone with an AL exec who speculates smart $ is on Rangers.
45 seconds ago

This is killing me... I guess this is a little (but not entirely) what Cavs fans felt like.