2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Kin]

Which is perfectly acceptable to me if they upgrade 1B too. If they move Lawrie to 2B, acquire a more traditional 3B and keep Lind at 1B, I'll be scratching my head.

Well, I'd hope Lind is just about done regardless. He's essentially gone three straight years as a replacement level player. I mean, at this point, you should really be giving Cooper those at bats just on principles sake.

I think the only way the situation you're talking about plays out is if the only FA they can sign is a 3B. It's a flat-out fugly free agency class this year and they might not be able to be super choosy about who they sign as an upgrade.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The Jays won 2-1 last night over the Rays...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/08/31/toronto_blue_jays_tampa_bay_rays_recap/

...rookie right-fielder Moises Sierra shed his erratic throwing pattern to gun down pinch-runner Elliot Johnson at home plate for the final out.

With left-fielder Rajai Davis also throwing out Matt Joyce trying to score to end the second, the outfield defence prevented at least two runs and in large part was responsible for the victory.

"It was really awesome how the day shaped up, before the game they were out working on their throws and then they gun two guys out at the plate," said catcher Jeff Mathis, who made two strong blocks to help complete the plays. "It's funny how this game has its ways of working things out -- those two throws saved the game for us."

...Sierra's throw was that it gave Mathis time to identify Johnson's path to the plate, move over to block the plate, and then avoid the majority of the contact, which led to Johnson face-planting into the ground.

Brendan Morrow for the win on 6.2 innings pitched, allowing a walk and 8 hits.

The Jays last won three in a row in the month of July, and have  won four out of five games to date.

 

[#1PilarFan]

I think the only way the situation you're talking about plays out is if the only FA they can sign is a 3B. It's a flat-out fugly free agency class this year and they might not be able to be super choosy about who they sign as an upgrade.

I really think that, even though AA says he's going the FA route, they should hit the trade market hard.

A guy who should be available and might be interesting is Morneau. His numbers aren't great this year, he's coming off injuries, he makes more than a couple bucks and he's getting older, but I don't think he'd cost too much to acquire. If he can rebound from his recent struggles, he'd be a massive (albeit probably overpaid) upgrade over Lind.

Another thought I had while drinking my face off last night was shopping Janssen. His numbers are great and he's proven he can close. But with Santos coming back and if you put Villanueva back in the pen, he might be a guy who the Jays can deal without really damaging the team. Obviously, it's a risk and he provides great insurance if Santos struggles when he comes back, but the team needs some upgrades and I don't see a ton of other options.

 

[Kin]

A guy who should be available and might be interesting is Morneau. His numbers aren't great this year, he's coming off injuries, he makes more than a couple bucks and he's getting older, but I don't think he'd cost too much to acquire. If he can rebound from his recent struggles, he'd be a massive (albeit probably overpaid) upgrade over Lind.

Am I crazy or is there no real good reason not to give Cooper an extended run with the job? I know the knocks on him, that he's a AAAA player and everything but he's a former first rounder, has hit at every level, is 25 and hasn't embarrassed himself at the plate this year. If the other options are Lind or trade for the rights to pay Moreneau 15 million...I don't know, maybe I'm nuts.

Another thought I had while drinking my face off last night was shopping Janssen. His numbers are great and he's proven he can close. But with Santos coming back and if you put Villanueva back in the pen, he might be a guy who the Jays can deal without really damaging the team. Obviously, it's a risk and he provides great insurance if Santos struggles when he comes back, but the team needs some upgrades and I don't see a ton of other options.

Take it for what it's worth but yesterday on the fan people sounded pretty certain that Villanueva is telling the team that if he's not in the rotation next year he won't sign.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Am I crazy or is there no real good reason not to give Cooper an extended run with the job? I know the knocks on him, that he's a AAAA player and everything but he's a former first rounder, has hit at every level, is 25 and hasn't embarrassed himself at the plate this year. If the other options are Lind or trade for the rights to pay Moreneau 15 million...I don't know, maybe I'm nuts.

Well, Cooper was really done in by his time in AA. Tough ballpark, but he never did get the hang of it.

I find him pretty underwhelming. He's like a poor man's Overbay, and Overbay at his absolute best was a pretty average 1B.

Take it for what it's worth but yesterday on the fan people sounded pretty certain that Villanueva is telling the team that if he's not in the rotation next year he won't sign.

Huh. Well aside from some endurance issues, he's certainly earned it.

 

[L K]

To jump back on my Arencibia comment one last time.  I think it was a mis-type on my part to imply that I wanted the catcher position improved.  I think the question mark that I feel Arencibia provides just makes the improvements at LF/1B all that much more important to address.

There was an interview that AA gave earlier in the summer where he made a comment about the offense being good and he really felt that they just needed to address the starting pitching.  I think that is just an insane kind of assessment of the team.

 

[bustaheims]

There was an interview that AA gave earlier in the summer where he made a comment about the offense being good and he really felt that they just needed to address the starting pitching.  I think that is just an insane kind of assessment of the team.

I'm not sure it's that insane. Before the injuries to the likes of Bautista, JPA and Lawrie (and when AA made those comments), the Jays were leading or near the lead in runs scored in all of MLB. When they're healthy, the offence is very good from a run production POV. The problem is that they don't have the organizational depth to make up for losing that much of their offence (and, to be fair, few teams do) and the rest of the line-up wasn't able to step up and fill in the void.

 

[maplesyrup]

I'm not sure it's that insane. Before the injuries to the likes of Bautista, JPA and Lawrie (and when AA made those comments), the Jays were leading or near the lead in runs scored in all of MLB. When they're healthy, the offence is very good from a run production POV. The problem is that they don't have the organizational depth to make up for losing that much of their offence (and, to be fair, few teams do) and the rest of the line-up wasn't able to step up and fill in the void.

Leading through the first two thirds... at least that's what Wilner said the other day. Or, at least what I thought I heard him say.

 

[bustaheims]

Leading through the first two thirds... at least that's what Wilner said the other day. Or, at least what I thought I heard him say.

Yeah. When healthy, this team, as it's made up right now, can score runs with the best of them. They've shown that. The problem has pretty clearly been the starting pitching. Of the pitchers who has started at least 5 games for the team, only Morrow and Villanueva have ERAs below 4.58, while Alvarez and Romero (the only two starters who have been healthy all season) are at 5.04 and 5.50 respectively.

 

[L K]

March/April - 18th in wOBA; 17th in wRC; 18th in wRAA; 18th in WAR
May - 12th in wOBA; 15th in wRC; 12th in wRAA; 18th in WAR
June - 4th in wOBA; 3rd in wRC; 4th in wRAA; 4th in WAR
July - 12th in wOBA; 17th in wRC; 12th in wRAA; 15th in WAR
August - 30th in wOBA; 30th in wRC; 30th in wRAA; 30th in WAR

They had a dominant offensive month in June, but that one month seems like a lot to hang on the "this offense is good enough to win" mantra. 

They did hit a lot of home-runs and were pretty good at driving in RBIs, but if they can't get on base more consistently next year, they are going to run into stretches where the offense dries up and that puts a lot of pressure on a pitching staff.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Yeah. When healthy, this team, as it's made up right now, can score runs with the best of them. They've shown that. The problem has pretty clearly been the starting pitching. Of the pitchers who has started at least 5 games for the team, only Morrow and Villanueva have ERAs below 4.58, while Alvarez and Romero (the only two starters who have been healthy all season) are at 5.04 and 5.50 respectively.

I agree, but then the problem is how to address these issues. If Nik is correct about Villanueva, do the Jays keep him and start him? He's pitched well as a starter, but can he do it consistently and work deeper into ballgames? Do the Jays keep Romero and hope he rebounds, or do they dump him and look for an upgrade? What about Alvarez? His peripherals are frighteningly bad, but he's also only 22.

Lots of questions.

 

[bustaheims]

March/April - 18th in wOBA; 17th in wRC; 18th in wRAA; 18th in WAR
May - 12th in wOBA; 15th in wRC; 12th in wRAA; 18th in WAR
June - 4th in wOBA; 3rd in wRC; 4th in wRAA; 4th in WAR
July - 12th in wOBA; 17th in wRC; 12th in wRAA; 15th in WAR
August - 30th in wOBA; 30th in wRC; 30th in wRAA; 30th in WAR

They had a dominant offensive month in June, but that one month seems like a lot to hang on the "this offense is good enough to win" mantra. 

They did hit a lot of home-runs and were pretty good at driving in RBIs, but if they can't get on base more consistently next year, they are going to run into stretches where the offense dries up and that puts a lot of pressure on a pitching staff.

The thing is, they've had similar issues with the advanced stats over the past few seasons, and yet, they've been among the most productive offences in the AL throughout. At the end of the day, winning is about scoring more runs than the other team, regardless of how. They've been pretty good at scoring them, but, when it matters, they've had issues preventing them - whether it be in the bullpen, the starting staff or both. Bring the pitching numbers into the middle of the pack, and this is a team capable of making the playoffs - or is at least in the fight late into September.

 

[Kin]

The thing is, they've had similar issues with the advanced stats over the past few seasons, and yet, they've been among the most productive offences in the AL throughout. At the end of the day, winning is about scoring more runs than the other team, regardless of how.

But remember, the whole point of numbers like that is to try and put things in a neutral context. Between the Dome, Fenway, Camden and New Yankee stadium the Jays are playing at least 108 games a year in stadiums that increase run scoring and specifically add to HR totals. People really underestimate the influence of park factors on a team's offense.

Look at the Red Sox. Even before their big trade that was not a great collection of offensive ball players but they're 2nd in the majors in runs scored. By BR's measurements there's not a huge difference between Fenway and Rogers in terms of the amount of runs the park adds.

So I don't think you can just look at runs scored/runs allowed and come to a fair conclusion that this is a really good hitting team and a bad pitching one. I think it's pretty telling that when the Jays go to Tampa, the one stadium in their division that hurts an offense, they look right ordinary hitting the ball.

 

[bustaheims]

I agree, but then the problem is how to address these issues. If Nik is correct about Villanueva, do the Jays keep him and start him? He's pitched well as a starter, but can he do it consistently and work deeper into ballgames? Do the Jays keep Romero and hope he rebounds, or do they dump him and look for an upgrade? What about Alvarez? His peripherals are frighteningly bad, but he's also only 22.

Lots of questions.

Considering how shallow the free agent market will be this winter, I think you almost have to give Villanueva what he wants and have him in the rotation until guys like Drabek and Hutchinson are ready to come back mid-season. As for Romero and Alvarez . . . I think it's sort of the same thing - unless AA can pull off some trades, you have to give them the first few months of next season to see if they can turn things around. If Romero can get back to his 2011 (or even his 2010) form, then he's a solid part of the rotation. As for Alvarez, I think there's a slight mechanical issue there - his sinker is starting too high in the zone and, obviously, not falling out of good hitting areas. If he can get that resolved, I think he could be a solid middle/back of the rotation guy. Worth giving another season to, at least.

 

[#1PilarFan]

That's all fair enough busta, but then the Jays won't really be upgrading the rotation if they keep Villanueva, Romero and Alvarez.

I think AA's got to step up and grab an #1 type pitcher. I love Morrow, but he can be inconsistent and injury prone. We need another top pitcher. And if Romero has to be dumped somewhere to make room, then so be it.

 

[bustaheims]

That's all fair enough busta, but then the Jays won't really be upgrading the rotation if they keep Villanueva, Romero and Alvarez.

Well, improvements from Alvarez and Romero, as well as a full season in the rotation from Villanueva, plus whoever they bring in to round out the rotation after Morrow could represent an upgrade to the rotation. It's not a guarantee, but, there's not much out there this winter.

I think AA's got to step up and grab an #1 type pitcher. I love Morrow, but he can be inconsistent and injury prone. We need another top pitcher. And if Romero has to be dumped somewhere to make room, then so be it.

I think your opinion on Romero is really short-sighted. He was an above average starter in 2010 and, in 2011, Romero pitched like a #1 type pitcher. He was arguably one of the top 5 starters in the AL. He's been awful this season, no doubt about it, but, dumping him to make room for someone else is just silliness.

 

[L K]

That's all fair enough busta, but then the Jays won't really be upgrading the rotation if they keep Villanueva, Romero and Alvarez.

Well, improvements from Alvarez and Romero, as well as a full season in the rotation from Villanueva, plus whoever they bring in to round out the rotation after Morrow could represent an upgrade to the rotation. It's not a guarantee, but, there's not much out there this winter.

I think AA's got to step up and grab an #1 type pitcher. I love Morrow, but he can be inconsistent and injury prone. We need another top pitcher. And if Romero has to be dumped somewhere to make room, then so be it.

I think your opinion on Romero is really short-sighted. He was an above average starter in 2010 and, in 2011, Romero pitched like a #1 type pitcher. He was arguably one of the top 5 starters in the AL. He's been awful this season, no doubt about it, but, dumping him to make room for someone else is just silliness.

You have to give Romero at least another half season before you consider turfing him.  He just can't be expected to the be #1 or #2 guy coming into next season.  I really would be considering shutting him down for the year at this point though.  There is something wrong with his mechanics AND his confidence at this point and getting shelled nearly every start isn't going to fix that.

As for the rotation, yeah, we might get improvements from Alvarez/Romero next year, but they are going to need more help than that from the pitching to contend. 

 

[#1PilarFan]

Well, improvements from Alvarez and Romero, as well as a full season in the rotation from Villanueva, plus whoever they bring in to round out the rotation after Morrow could represent an upgrade to the rotation. It's not a guarantee, but, there's not much out there this winter.

Two things:

i) That's the kind of thinking that will keep the Jays out of a playoff hunt. Hoping for improvement from struggling players, while expecting your (potentially) overachieving players to maintain their current play is a great way to remain mediocre.
ii) Free agency in any league is usually not bursting at the seams with all-star, young, proven talent. There are a few players that AA should look at, but if he, or any other GM is unable to improve their team because free agency wasn't overly robust, well, that there's not a great GM.

I think your opinion on Romero is really short-sighted. He was an above average starter in 2010 and, in 2011, Romero pitched like a #1 type pitcher. He was arguably one of the top 5 starters in the AL. He's been awful this season, no doubt about it, but, dumping him to make room for someone else is just silliness.

Perhaps it is short-sighted. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Romero last one inning today. And what an inning it was!

I'm not advocating trading Romero at all costs, nor am I saying they should buy him out or something similarly wasteful. However, the Jays cannot (and according to Beeston, will not) enter the season with this same rotation. That's insane, unless their goal was to miss the playoffs again. They need to upgrade key positions in the rotation and that means making some changes. You don't have to play Alvarez at the major league level. He's looked painfully outmatched this year. Nor do you need to keep Romero. The Jays rotation has not been good enough this year. That needs to be addressed and not through hope and optimism. And, like I said, if Romero has to be moved for these upgrades to take affect, so be it.

 

[#1PilarFan]

You have to give Romero at least another half season before you consider turfing him.  He just can't be expected to the be #1 or #2 guy coming into next season.  I really would be considering shutting him down for the year at this point though.  There is something wrong with his mechanics AND his confidence at this point and getting shelled nearly every start isn't going to fix that.

See I can get behind that. Keep Romero, but expect very little. If he does well, awesome, if he struggles, he can go down to AAA or something similarly horrible. And for the record, I don't dislike Romero, nor have I forgotten his previous seasons. I just don't see the point of refusing to upgrade the rotation because of a pitcher with an ERA approaching six.

 

[bustaheims]

You have to give Romero at least another half season before you consider turfing him.  He just can't be expected to the be #1 or #2 guy coming into next season.  I really would be considering shutting him down for the year at this point though.  There is something wrong with his mechanics AND his confidence at this point and getting shelled nearly every start isn't going to fix that.

As for the rotation, yeah, we might get improvements from Alvarez/Romero next year, but they are going to need more help than that from the pitching to contend.

If the team was healthier, I'd shut down Romero as well - though, I do understand the thinking behind not doing so. The problem is that you don't want to shut him down after an outing like he had today. Ideally, you send him home (so to speak) on a high note, so he has something positive to build off of. I'd also agree that they shouldn't expect too much from him next season. Right now, I'd probably slot him in as the #3 starter next season. Given the make up of the roster right now, I'd say the 2-5 spots of the rotation are probably adequately filled by Morrow-Romero-Villanueva/Alvarez/Happ/some of the other young arms in the system. What the team really needs is a #1 guy, and, well, as we all know, they're not exactly plentiful. Another #2 guy would be an improvement, but, it's only slightly better than treading water. I guess what I'm saying in terms of off season moves is, unless there's a real #1 starter coming back, I'm not sure it's worth the effort to make the deal, because I'm not convinced what's likely to be available via free agency or trade will be a worthwhile upgrade on what's already in the organization. If it's something that has to wait until after next season, then so be it. I'd rather see it done right than have moves made for the sake of making a move.