2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Andy007]

Dear baseball gods,

...... next year, give us a respite from all these injuries,
...... deliver us from all the hurt, and...
..... please, let us make the playoffs!!!...

  .....    "Amen"!

Why not throw a full-time DH, LF, 2B and 2 top of the rotation starters into the prayer as well for good measure

 

[Derk]

Jays win a series in New York! Escobar with a nice 5-rbi day. However, it took 8 runs in the two victories.

Lots of chatter on the FAN this morning (Jeff Blair) about how the team will look next season. They discussed the possibility of moving Lawrie to 2nd, trading Escobar, letting Johnson go and moving Hech to SS. They also figured that Gose would be the leadoff guy next year, which might save some wear and tear on Lawrie.

 

[Peter D.]

Lots of chatter on the FAN this morning (Jeff Blair) about how the team will look next season. They discussed the possibility of moving Lawrie to 2nd, trading Escobar, letting Johnson go and moving Hech to SS. They also figured that Gose would be the leadoff guy next year, which might save some wear and tear on Lawrie.

Who would be 3rd?  Bautista?

Ideally, I'd like to see Lawrie remain at 3rd, with Hech or Escobar moved to 2nd.  That could become a formidable middle infield.  It's the best "in-house" option which would not cost anything.  Although this season has highlighted to me why the Jays may entertain the thought of dealing Escobar. 

 

[Derk]

Lots of chatter on the FAN this morning (Jeff Blair) about how the team will look next season. They discussed the possibility of moving Lawrie to 2nd, trading Escobar, letting Johnson go and moving Hech to SS. They also figured that Gose would be the leadoff guy next year, which might save some wear and tear on Lawrie.

Who would be 3rd?  Bautista?

Ideally, I'd like to see Lawrie remain at 3rd, with Hech or Escobar moved to 2nd.  That could become a formidable middle infield.  It's the best "in-house" option which would not cost anything.  Although this season has highlighted to me why the Jays may entertain the thought of dealing Escobar.

Sorry, guess I left that out - they were talking about going out and getting a heavy hitting 3B in that case - it would offer them a bit more flexibility in the event that they couldn't find an upgrade at 2B, and they were kinda nervous at having both Escobar and Hech in the same batting order.

They speculated at getting Chase Utley from the Phillies on the last year of his deal ($15M from what I remember) to play 2B for a short term fix, but also discussed the Lawrie move as well. I'd like to see Hech keep improving on his hitting.

 

[bustaheims]

Ideally, I'd like to see Lawrie remain at 3rd, with Hech or Escobar moved to 2nd.  That could become a formidable middle infield.  It's the best "in-house" option which would not cost anything.  Although this season has highlighted to me why the Jays may entertain the thought of dealing Escobar.

Yeah, that seems like the most logical option. Lawrie stays at 3rd - the Jays moved him there for a reason. Hech could come in at 2B, depending on how he handles MLB pitching the rest of the way - his bat may not be quite ready yet. That's also an issue when it comes to moving Escobar. If they deal him and Hech needs more time in AAA, then the team has no experienced starting middle infielders.

As for Gose leading off next year . . . I'm not sure his bat is ready either. Depending the roster moves made over the off season, I'd say Sierra is more likely to be the Opening Day LF than Gose.

 

[maplesyrup]

Anything could happen but my best guess is Hech @ 2B next season.

 

[Corn Flake]

Can they really be sold on Gose hitting leadoff next year?  He looked so overmatched at the plate in nearly every at bat it was scary.  He sure can run like the wind but if you can't get on base that's not going to do you much good.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Yeah, that seems like the most logical option. Lawrie stays at 3rd - the Jays moved him there for a reason. Hech could come in at 2B, depending on how he handles MLB pitching the rest of the way - his bat may not be quite ready yet. That's also an issue when it comes to moving Escobar. If they deal him and Hech needs more time in AAA, then the team has no experienced starting middle infielders.

Re: Hech

Obviously a very small sample size, but it's encouraging to see he is not being completely over-matched and has seemed to start to adjust to MLB pitching somewhat.

Doug Walton ‏@JaysProducer

Adeiny Hechavarria started MLB career 1-19 (.053)...since, 10-32 (.313) #BlueJays

 

[L K]

Can they really be sold on Gose hitting leadoff next year?  He looked so overmatched at the plate in nearly every at bat it was scary.  He sure can run like the wind but if you can't get on base that's not going to do you much good.

It's not the organization stating it, so I don't want to go overboard on criticizing it, but the team is never going to contend if that is the approach they have to team building.

Gose looked like a guy who is at least a year away from having an MLB ready bat.  He had a .499 OPS in roughly 100 at bats.

I still think they made a huge mistake in trading away Snider (124 OPS+ in 136 bats so far since his call-up/trade - .385 OBP since the trade).  Meanwhile Lincoln's numbers with the Jays are right back around his career numbers of a 1.50-ish WHIP and bad ERA.

I'm far more comfortable running Hech out on the field next year than I am Gose though.  He's older for one, but his glove has been MLB ready for a while and he was never touted as an offensive prospect so the fact that he is producing mediocre offense is pretty much what we should be expecting.  If his numbers continue to improve on the whole and he can be a .650 or better OPS kind of hitter, I think his positive defense is enough that you can legitimately run with him in the field with a lineup of Lawrie-Escobar-Hech in the infield.

You can't have both Hech and Gose in your lineup though with question marks offensively at 1B (assuming Encarnacion is the DH), catcher (Arencibia only started to hit right before getting injured), CF (which Rasmus shows up), LF (Is it Gose, or Sierra's AAAA bat).

Then you have things like Bautista coming off wrist surgery.  That doesn't imply the end of his productivity, but wrist injuries are never good to have for a power hitter.  I think the Jays should be just slightly concerned about what kind of hitter they are getting back once he is healthy.

 

[Champ Kind]

Jays win a series in New York! Escobar with a nice 5-rbi day. However, it took 8 runs in the two victories.

Lots of chatter on the FAN this morning (Jeff Blair) about how the team will look next season. They discussed the possibility of moving Lawrie to 2nd, trading Escobar, letting Johnson go and moving Hech to SS. They also figured that Gose would be the leadoff guy next year, which might save some wear and tear on Lawrie.

Raises the question of who plays third, but provided they can acquire someone with some pop in their bat this is the option I like best.  Lawrie, to me, can be a Jimmy Rollins - type second baseman and hit second in the order.  Maybe someone like a Mark Reynolds, who is having a horrible year but plays a pretty good third base and can slug, would make sense at third and hit somewhere like 5;th or 6'th.

 

[Kin]

I still think they made a huge mistake in trading away Snider (124 OPS+ in 136 bats so far since his call-up/trade - .385 OBP since the trade).  Meanwhile Lincoln's numbers with the Jays are right back around his career numbers of a 1.50-ish WHIP and bad ERA.

In fairness though, who could have possibly predicted that Snider would hit well with regular playing time outside of everyone.

 

[#1PilarFan]

I think it'd be a mistake to switch Lawrie's position. He's still young, and while I seriously doubt he's a .580 SLG type of guy, I don't think this year is a true reflection of his offensive abilities. No reason to slot him into 2B when we have Hech, barring any deals of course. 

I think Happ will make a perfectly acceptable 5th starter. Dude throws strikes, can log innings an will probably have an ERA around 5. Good enough I say.

LK and I seriously disagree on catcher being a hole. JPA's OBP will be atrocious, but he has enough pop in his bat to be an acceptable offensive catcher.

The biggest hole in the lineup is 1B. The Jays have a lot of average offensive hitters who happen to provide pretty solid defense, which is fine, except that it makes premium offense from the 1B slot all that more important. Lind has had one very good year and a ton of terrible to mediocre years. He is not the answer. Three key bats in Bautista, Encarnacion and the yet to be named 1B will provide enough offense to propel the Jays into a playoff position if the rotation's serious deficiencies are addressed.

Morrow, Romero, Happ and Alvarez does not a playoff rotation make. Villaneuva would be better suited in the 'pen, though he's done a tremendous job as spot starter this year. They need a serious upgrade to the rotation to hope to make the playoffs, and some depth wouldn't kill anyone either.

 

[L K]

LK and I seriously disagree on catcher being a hole. JPA's OBP will be atrocious, but he has enough pop in his bat to be an acceptable offensive catcher.

Not as much as you might think?  I don't worry about a healthy and productive JPA, because, yeah, his power is good.  But he needs to hit for power to offset his atrocious defense.  Two of the 4 months this year (April and June) he had an OPS of <.530.  Now that he's coming off injury I think you need to call the position a question mark just until he shows that he can be productive.  Any time a guy is off with injury as long as Arencibia has been, timing can be an issue coming back.

It's not so much a lineup hole as a problem spot that needs fixing, but just not a position that you can automatically bank on quality production AND have the other holes in the lineup stand as they are.  I'm sure that Arencibia will be fine and hit his 20+ home runs with a full/healthy season, but he needs to be healthy and actually do it.  Until he shows that he is healthy, I think catcher has to be a bit of a concern when combined with some of the other offensive black holes currently in the lineup.

 

[Corn Flake]

Not as much as you might think?  I don't worry about a healthy and productive JPA, because, yeah, his power is good.  But he needs to hit for power to offset his atrocious defense.

I wonder if they consider moving him to 1B at some point and certainly with d'Arnaud coming up fast (injury setback aside) they may have to make a decision on JP sooner than later.  JP's bat at 1B might be a decent match if he can handle the position switch. 

 

[Kin]

I think it'd be a mistake to switch Lawrie's position. He's still young, and while I seriously doubt he's a .580 SLG type of guy, I don't think this year is a true reflection of his offensive abilities. No reason to slot him into 2B when we have Hech, barring any deals of course. 

Ultimately I kind of have the sense that the best thing to do for Lawrie would be to put him at the position where he has the lowest risk of injury. For that reason if I had to guess I'd wager at some point he ends up in LF.

But the one thing I hope they do is maintain his flexibility as much as possible. If they're going to try and upgrade via free agency than Lawrie going to 2B could just be a move to get an extra bat into the lineup at third.

 

[Kin]

Not as much as you might think?  I don't worry about a healthy and productive JPA, because, yeah, his power is good.  But he needs to hit for power to offset his atrocious defense.

Admittedly defense behind the plate is tough to measure but for what it's worth Arencibia actually ranks fairly well defensively by some measures. BR has his dWAR as positives last year and this(0.9 this year in just 74 games) and Fangraphs has him as a positive in terms of defensive runs saved.

By more traditional measurements while the passed balls are a problem he's also throwing base stealers out at a 35% clip which is none too shabby. bWAR has him at 1.5 and fWAR at 1.7 so that's a level of production you can live with at just about any position. True that means he won't be winning any awards but those are the numbers of a good major league player.

The issue with Arencibia, as I see it, is that he's got virtually no value if not behind the plate. Realistically the only positions you could move him to are LF, 1B or DH and at all of those spots his offense wouldn't sustain him. So they either need to make their peace with him behind the plate or shop him. 

 

[Champ Kind]

Not as much as you might think?  I don't worry about a healthy and productive JPA, because, yeah, his power is good.  But he needs to hit for power to offset his atrocious defense.

I wonder if they consider moving him to 1B at some point and certainly with d'Arnaud coming up fast (injury setback aside) they may have to make a decision on JP sooner than later.  JP's bat at 1B might be a decent match if he can handle the position switch.

I agree with this, though admitedly D'Arnaud is a bit of an unknown quantity for me, and likely will be until he gets a chance to hit big league pitching.  A big bat would still be needed for third or DH, however.  I don't, however, see Hech at second.  I think Yunel is most likely to be moved when management determines Hech can play everyday SS in the majors.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Just want to say - wow Villanueva.  Impressive.

 

[#1PilarFan]

LK and I seriously disagree on catcher being a hole. JPA's OBP will be atrocious, but he has enough pop in his bat to be an acceptable offensive catcher.

Not as much as you might think?  I don't worry about a healthy and productive JPA, because, yeah, his power is good.  But he needs to hit for power to offset his atrocious defense.  Two of the 4 months this year (April and June) he had an OPS of <.530.

And the other two months, he had a combined OPS of .900+. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Now that he's coming off injury I think you need to call the position a question mark just until he shows that he can be productive.  Any time a guy is off with injury as long as Arencibia has been, timing can be an issue coming back.

It's not so much a lineup hole as a problem spot that needs fixing, but just not a position that you can automatically bank on quality production AND have the other holes in the lineup stand as they are.  I'm sure that Arencibia will be fine and hit his 20+ home runs with a full/healthy season, but he needs to be healthy and actually do it.  Uventil he shows that he is healthy, I think catcher has to be a bit of a concern when combined with some of the other offensive black holes currently in the lineup.

Whatever you think, surely you can agree that upgrading at catcher is a luxury the Jays do not have. When it's all said and done, JPA's an average catcher, which is good enough for the Jays purposes. As you pointed out, they have other, much more pressing concerns to address. Also, d'Arnaud isn't that far off from the majors once he recovers.

 

[#1PilarFan]

But the one thing I hope they do is maintain his flexibility as much as possible. If they're going to try and upgrade via free agency than Lawrie going to 2B could just be a move to get an extra bat into the lineup at third.

Which is perfectly acceptable to me if they upgrade 1B too. If they move Lawrie to 2B, acquire a more traditional 3B and keep Lind at 1B, I'll be scratching my head.