2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[maplesyrup]

Was it the roundtable or Bob?

It might have been Bob who suggested it. The argument was that CF might be Boni's best position in the field. I don't think the rest of the guys necessarily disagreed. - Lots of options here.

 

[Kin]

Advanced metrics don't have Bonifacio as a particularly good centre fielder. And, honestly, I doubt the assembled Toronto media watched more than a half dozen Marlins games last year.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Adrian Beltre signed a five-year contract with the Mariners immediately after his incredible, historic, 48-dinger season with the Dodgers. Critics said that Beltre would never repeat that season again, but of course, the Mariners weren?t paying him to repeat his 2004 season over and over. If the Mariners paid Beltre as if they were expecting a bunch of his 2004 seasons, he would?ve landed the biggest contract in history. He got $64 million. The Mariners were more paying Beltre to be what he was in 2002-2003, and what the Mariners paid for was what the Mariners got.

Likewise, the Blue Jays aren?t paying Cabrera to repeat his 2012, and they aren?t even paying Cabrera to repeat his 2011. According to our numbers, the last two years Cabrera has been worth 8.8 WAR over 268 games. If the Blue Jays were paying Cabrera to be that sort of player, they might?ve guaranteed $16 million over one year or $32 million over two years. They?ve opted for half that, and Cabrera has accepted.

Do you know what an outfielder needs to be to be worth $16 million over two years as a free-agent acquisition? Something in the general neighborhood of league-average. Even slightly worse than that, or league-average and injury-prone. Cabrera was that sort of player in 2009 with the Yankees, when he posted a 94 wRC+. He was just kind of average at everything. If Cabrera could be that guy for two years, the Blue Jays wouldn?t have made a bad investment, and if Cabrera could be better than that guy for two years, the Blue Jays would have made a solid investment.

To say nothing of the Blue Jays? current position on the win curve ? extra wins to them right now might be worth more than extra wins for many other teams. The Blue Jays see an opportunity to compete in the AL East right now, and they?re going after it, which makes the Cabrera move a lot more interesting than it would be if Cabrera signed for a year with some cellar-dweller. Cabrera could once again play a prominent role in a pennant race.

In Toronto, he and Bautista will flank Colby Rasmus, in an outfield with massive error bars. You might be wondering why Cabrera signed this deal in the first place. For one thing, we don?t know much about Cabrera?s market. For another thing, the Blue Jays are obviously a lot more appealing than they were a week or a month ago. And for a third thing, is it that bad a deal for Cabrera, really? Let?s say he signed somewhere for a year and $6 ? 8 million. Let?s say he performed well. What would he expect a year from now? $10 million a season? $12 million a season? And what if he didn?t perform well? Then his value would be shot and his next-year expectations would be drastically lowered. This gives Cabrera some degree of security, and since he?s only 28 years old, it?s not like this is his last chance at a big free-agent contract. If he plays well with the Blue Jays, he?ll get paid well in 2015 and beyond.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/melky-cabrera-follows-marlins-to-toronto/

 

[maplesyrup]

Thanks for that, Pots... Good read.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Some big moves by AA that have me pretty excited about the upcoming season.

Any word on whether Bud Lite has approved the trade yet?

Reyes was in Dubai or something when the trade happened, and I think a couple others were all over the world, so they've got to get back and have physicals done.  Hence the delay.

 

[Derk]

Some big moves by AA that have me pretty excited about the upcoming season.

Any word on whether Bud Lite has approved the trade yet?

Reyes was in Dubai or something when the trade happened, and I think a couple others were all over the world, so they've got to get back and have physicals done.  Hence the delay.

Fair enough. Just wondering, because all I have been hearing lately is that Bud is reviewing the trade, and not much about whether or not the physicals are done yet.

 

[bustaheims]

Fair enough. Just wondering, because all I have been hearing lately is that Bud is reviewing the trade, and not much about whether or not the physicals are done yet.

Well, the paperwork for the trade was only filed today, so, probably nothing official until Monday.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm on that bandwagon. Cooper may not have a superhigh ceiling but at this point I'd be more inclined to at least give him the shot to get there. Lind doesn't need any more at-bats.

That's pretty much my thoughts on the matter as well. I mean, at the very least, Cooper has shown an ability to get on base at a pretty impressive clip throughout his minor league career. If he can translate that to big leagues, he could turn out to be a Olerud-lite type bat.

 

[bustaheims]

So now what? The roundtable just suggested moving Colby and putting Boni in CF. I think I'd be behind that... Maybe in a package with JPA? I imagine that would fetch a nice return... A big time 2B perhaps?

Yeah . . . no. Bonifacio is best suited as a super utility type. He's not an every day player. He has good wheels, but the rest of his game is pretty mediocre. Unless Cano is the 2B that's coming in, putting Bonifacio in CF ahead of Rasmus is a downgrade to the overall quality of the starting lineup.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Cabrera signs for 2 years, $16M, pending a physical (part of the agreement).

Here's more:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8639653/melky-cabrera-agrees-two-year-deal-toronto-blue-jays-according-sources

 

[maplesyrup]

So now what? The roundtable just suggested moving Colby and putting Boni in CF. I think I'd be behind that... Maybe in a package with JPA? I imagine that would fetch a nice return... A big time 2B perhaps?

Yeah . . . no. Bonifacio is best suited as a super utility type. He's not an every day player. He has good wheels, but the rest of his game is pretty mediocre. Unless Cano is the 2B that's coming in, putting Bonifacio in CF ahead of Rasmus is a downgrade to the overall quality of the starting lineup.

I could see Boni outperforming Rasmus' underwhelming bat (Boni hit 35 points higher last year) and I'm not sold on Rasmus being a terrific defensive fielder either. I mean, I can't be the only one who sees that he plays way to shallow. He's okay out there, don't get me wrong but I don't think it's a stretch at all for Boni to step in and replace Rasmus' numbers - Both on the field and at the plate.

Now, with that said. I can live with Rasmus too (provided his bat comes around.) Like I said, there's options.

 

[Kin]

I could see Boni outperforming Rasmus' underwhelming bat (Boni hit 35 points higher last year) and I'm not sold on Rasmus being a terrific defensive fielder either. I mean, I can't be the only one who sees that he plays way to shallow. He's okay out there, don't get me wrong but I don't think it's a stretch at all for Boni to step in and replace Rasmus' numbers - Both on the field and at the plate.

That's cherry picking a pretty unhelpful stat when it comes to hitting though. Rasmus outslugged him by 84 points. And the reality is that it wasn't even much of an off-season for Bonifacio. He had an OPS+ of 77 compared to a career OPS+ of 81. Rasmus had an OPS+ of 85 and a career OPS+ of 98. An OPS+ of 85, which we all agree is a down year for Rasmus, would represent the second best year at the plate of Bonifacio's career.

And Rasmus, who did grade as a good defensive outfielder last year, plays shallow because he has good range going back.

So, replacing Rasmus with Bonifacio is replacing him with a worse hitter, a worse fielder and someone who's a year and a half older. The only thing Bonifacio has in his favour is baserunning and, at that point, you may as well let Gose play.

 

[maplesyrup]

at that point, you may as well let Gose play.

I could also live with that. - Provided Rasmus fetches a helpful return. Either way, I don't think either Gose and/or Boni replacing Rasmus in the field is going to make a significant difference. Though I do hope (assuming we keep Rasmus) that his bat does come around because it was a point if frustration for me and other Jays fans I'm sure.

 

[Corn Flake]

Fair enough. Just wondering, because all I have been hearing lately is that Bud is reviewing the trade, and not much about whether or not the physicals are done yet.

Well, the paperwork for the trade was only filed today, so, probably nothing official until Monday.

The main holdup is apparently Reyes being on vacation in Dubai and not back until around now for a physical. 

 

[Corn Flake]

Buster Onley says the Manager's job is between Jim Riggleman and Jim Tracy.

I don't know how good of a source he is, but that's what he's saying.

edit: Tracy has the track record, and a winning one if you subtract his two years managing the Pirates - a team nobody could manage to a winning record.

 

[Kin]

Buster Onley says the Manager's job is between Jim Riggleman and Jim Tracy.

I don't know how good of a source he is, but that's what he's saying.

Is that based on his tweet or something else? I'm only asking because, in fairness to the tweet, it just said that those were "two of the final names being discussed" and not necessarily the only two.

 

[Corn Flake]

Buster Onley says the Manager's job is between Jim Riggleman and Jim Tracy.

I don't know how good of a source he is, but that's what he's saying.

Is that based on his tweet or something else? I'm only asking because, in fairness to the tweet, it just said that those were "two of the final names being discussed" and not necessarily the only two.

I went by this:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/blue-jays-close-to-naming-new-manager.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


And yes it's not saying they are absolutely the final two... it's just a rumor from a source I don't know anything about.

 

[Kin]

And yes it's not saying they are absolutely the final two... it's just a rumor from a source I don't know anything about.

For what it's worth I think Olney is one of the more respected guys in the business.

edit: And honestly I'd be a little disappointed if it were one of those two guys. Neither guy is awful or anything but it definitely seems like they're both guys who are safe, unspectacular choices.

 

[bustaheims]

According to Ken Rosenthal, Riggleman's agent says the Jays have not approached him, and there are some questions as to whether they've contacted Tracy either.

 

[Corn Flake]

And yes it's not saying they are absolutely the final two... it's just a rumor from a source I don't know anything about.

For what it's worth I think Olney is one of the more respected guys in the business.

edit: And honestly I'd be a little disappointed if it were one of those two guys. Neither guy is awful or anything but it definitely seems like they're both guys who are safe, unspectacular choices.

I don't know a lot about either, or most of any of the other candidates but yeah... dull choices sure seems to be what those two would be.

Matt Williams is a guy I hoped to see on the finalist list. Not that I know he can do the job but if a Manager's playing days are any indication of how he would manage a team, I think he'd be great.