2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[maplesyrup]

Sure, but when you trade prospects, you need to get the right value back. I'm not convinced the deal as rumoured is, and, from some reports, a number of MLB execs agree with me.

I think I would too. It goes without saying that A) Dickey would need to re-sign and B) the prospect coming back from the Mets would need to prove to be serviceable. Also, as Nik says, this might not be the deal at all anyway.

 

[Andy007]

Maybe I'm eventually proven naive but I just don't believe AA would do the deal that most of you are criticizing so heavily. Has he ever made a deal that made people say that he got really bad value?

That trade for Happ + was pretty bad value. Napoli for Francisco was atrocious. Not that I am anti-AA or anything remotely close to that, but I don't think he is nearly the bandit people make him out to be.

Anyway I think those proposed deals sound about right. If AA had Gose+Arencibia on the table for Dickey, and the Mets demanded D'Arnaud, then I can see him "downgrading" Gose to Syndengaard after finally agreeing to add D'Arnaud.

AA loves Gose and players of his make-up, has barely any hitting prospects on the farm and has much more pitching depth/ quality pitching prospects thus in his mind I bet he sees Syndengaard as an easier piece to part with than Gose (even though I'd personally much rather have the former).

 

[Kin]

That trade for Happ + was pretty bad value. Napoli for Francisco was atrocious. Not that I am anti-AA or anything remotely close to that, but I don't think he is nearly the bandit people make him out to be.

I might give you the JA Happ deal as I didn't love that myself but I think that's a little overstated given what really came back/went out. I do have to disagree with you on Napoli though. The Napoli/Francisco deal looks terrible in hindsight because Napoli had the one great season and Francisco was something of a disappointment with the Jays but at the time the trade actually got made I don't think you can legitimately say that Francisco represented significantly less value than Napoli did. I didn't like that trade myself but the realities are that it was a weak defensive catcher who hadn't hit well in his only full season for a relief pitcher with some good splits/K numbers. That's not a terrible trade at the time and given that Napoli has regressed to his career norms a little bit I don't even think the Jays lost that much.

 

[bustaheims]

I might give you the JA Happ deal as I didn't love that myself but I think that's a little overstated given what really came back/went out. I do have to disagree with you on Napoli though. The Napoli/Francisco deal looks terrible in hindsight because Napoli had the one great season and Francisco was something of a disappointment with the Jays but at the time the trade actually got made I don't think you can legitimately say that Francisco represented significantly less value than Napoli did. I didn't like that trade myself but the realities are that it was a weak defensive catcher who hadn't hit well in his only full season for a relief pitcher with some good splits/K numbers. That's not a terrible trade at the time and given that Napoli has regressed to his career norms a little bit I don't even think the Jays lost that much.

And, by extension, the Jays ended up with a pretty good pitching prospect in Matt Smoral as a compensation pick for Francisco. That trade did not work out particularly well on the field for the Jays, but, as you say, it was hardly as bad at the time as it appeared last winter.

 

[Andy007]

That trade for Happ + was pretty bad value. Napoli for Francisco was atrocious. Not that I am anti-AA or anything remotely close to that, but I don't think he is nearly the bandit people make him out to be.

I might give you the JA Happ deal as I didn't love that myself but I think that's a little overstated given what really came back/went out. I do have to disagree with you on Napoli though. The Napoli/Francisco deal looks terrible in hindsight because Napoli had the one great season and Francisco was something of a disappointment with the Jays but at the time the trade actually got made I don't think you can legitimately say that Francisco represented significantly less value than Napoli did. I didn't like that trade myself but the realities are that it was a weak defensive catcher who hadn't hit well in his only full season for a relief pitcher with some good splits/K numbers. That's not a terrible trade at the time and given that Napoli has regressed to his career norms a little bit I don't even think the Jays lost that much.

I thought the Napoli trade was awful at the time though. He was a IB/DH/C type player with enormous power. He wouldn't have been a full time catcher anyway; his value was also in his versatility in that he could fill positions that were genuine question marks. Francisco was a closer for a small part of one season until he got replaced by a better pitcher. I think alot of other people thought it was a bad deal at the time as well and it was overshadowed by AA amazingly getting rid of Wells' contract.

 

[#1PilarFan]

I might give you the JA Happ deal as I didn't love that myself but I think that's a little overstated given what really came back/went out.

Yeah, the Happ deal was really a bunch of mediocre prospects for a bunch of mediocre players. Still doesn't make a ton of sense but it's not really a bad trade.

This potential RA Dickey deal looks like it could be a little rough. I agree that all we're hearing is from Mets writers but two of the Jays top 3 prospects is a lot to give up. I like Dickey and I would love to have him on the Jays, but I really hate the idea of losing D'Arnaud and adding in Syndegaard just seems to be overpayment.

I have to believe there are younger and cheaper pitchers that could be acquired for the package that AA is offering.

 

[bustaheims]

Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #Mets, #BlueJays have agreement in principle on Dickey trade. Window open for Jays to extend Dickey, which would complete deal.

Ken_Rosenthal: Negotiating window for Dickey extension is 72 hours, expiring Tuesday at 2 pm ET. #Mets #BlueJays

There's been some rumblings that Dickey isn't particularly enamoured with coming to Toronto, so, getting an extension done could be a significant roadblock here.

 

[Justin]

Are people really that surprised that this is what's in going to take to get last year's Cy Young winner? If the Mets are trading him they're going for a premium offer and I'm fine with that. The Jays are going for it this year, AA sees his window and he's going to take it. The Red Sox are rebuilding, the Yankees aren't as strong, the Orioles can't possibly be so lucky 2 years in a row, and the Rays just traded away a rock in their rotation.

Even with Shield, the Rays still have one of the best rotations in baseball, and they've potentially upgraded their offence with Myers.

As for the trade, what people like me are saying is, well, not all Cy Young award winners are created equal. Dickey will be 38 years old by the time next season rolls around, and, as a knuckleballer, could be wildly unpredictable. He'd be moving from a pitcher-friendly stadium to a batter friendly stadium and to a division that still contains some of the best hitters in baseball (not to mention not having the opposition pitcher in the batting order - the AL in general is tougher on pitchers). Is that worth the team giving up 2 of their top 3 prospects (especially after having already traded away 2 of their top 5 in the deal with Miami)? I'm not convinced.

I don't think many Jays fans were made that they traded future perennial all-star Jeff Kent for David Cone in 1992...

Well, if the Jays were clearly World Series contenders at the trade deadline when they potentially making this deal, maybe we'd have a different opinion of it, but, without having played a single game in the 2013 season? Very different story.

The Rays are still a solid team but are nonetheless weakened. The rotation is obviously not as strong and losing BJ Upton hurts in the short-term if Myers isn't ready.

Anyhow, knuckleballers have shown they can pitch well late in their careers. I have no reason to believe Dickey's previous season was a fluke considering he reinvented himself and is a completely different RA Dickey than the Dickey a few years prior. He's a clubhouse leader, a solid veteran presence, and a Cy Young winner. He's an ace - an ace that completes Toronto's rotation to be one of if not the best in baseball.

Having a young above-average catcher under contract for 4 more years softens the blow of losing D'Arnaud (who has an injury history), and Syndergaard who, although highly-touted, is still a question mark as he's yet to develop an off-speed pitch and advance to high-A ball. FanGraphs has him below Sanchez, too. D'Arnaud and Syndergaard is still a lot to give up, and it also depends on what additional prospects we may be getting back with Dickey, but the trade, as I said before, gives the Jays the potential to have an astoundingly great rotation that would be the best in baseball. 

 

[Andy007]

Ken Rosenthal ‏ @ Ken_Rosenthal
Negotiating window for Dickey extension is 72 hours, expiring Tuesday at 2 pm ET.  # Mets  # BlueJays


41s ken rosenthalken rosenthal ‏ @ Ken_Rosenthal
Sources:  # Mets,  # BlueJays have agreement in principle on Dickey trade. Window open for Jays to extend Dickey, which would complete deal.



Looks like the deal is as reported, contingent on an extension.

 

[Andy007]

And here is the other link:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/team-to-acquire-ra-dickey.html

 

[#1PilarFan]

Well, it's a lot to pay, but it's pretty much done so might as well get over it.

Dickey will be a great addition to the Jays' rotation and now, health permitting, the Jays probably have the deepest and best rotation in the league. I mean, our former ace is now the 5th starter. That's a good off-season.

Now, can we get a giant press conference with all of his major off-season acquisitions? I always enjoy watching them.

 

[Derk]

Would have rather kept D'Arnaud at this point. I am not going to argue that last year's Cy Young winner isn't worth what the Jays are paying. I am just going to say I probably wouldn't have done this deal right now. Jays still haven't proven a single thing. Everything could work out and they could contend next season - or it could all fall apart again and the best catching prospect in the league is gone.

 

[Beowulf]

Would have rather kept D'Arnaud at this point. I am not going to argue that last year's Cy Young winner isn't worth what the Jays are paying. I am just going to say I probably wouldn't have done this deal right now. Jays still haven't proven a single thing. Everything could work out and they could contend next season - or it could all fall apart again and the best catching prospect in the league is gone.

One of the best prospects in the league period. And agreed this is where I'm at, how necessary was this for the Jays to do (if the deal really is as reported; and it would seem to be)?

Overpaying for a guy like Marcum and keeping two great prospects or making a deal with TD for a younger starter would've been better options.

Even if they weren't options I would have preferred not to see this deal go down.

Oh well, hopefully Dickey can overcome age, NL vs AL (especially AL East) and pitching half his games in a hitters friendly park.

 

[Fanatic]

Dickey Wrote A Book

This guy has not had an easy life. This is at times a bit gut wrenching and I would caution that the accounts of sexual abuse make it unsuitable for children.

 

[Kin]

Anyhow, knuckleballers have shown they can pitch well late in their careers. I have no reason to believe Dickey's previous season was a fluke considering he reinvented himself and is a completely different RA Dickey than the Dickey a few years prior. He's a clubhouse leader, a solid veteran presence, and a Cy Young winner. He's an ace - an ace that completes Toronto's rotation to be one of if not the best in baseball.

I think the problem most people have with that is that it seems as though the Blue Jays are paying Ace-level prices for a guy who hasn't established himself as a guy who year-in and year-out can pitch to that level. Ignore age, ignore his style of pitching, there are tons of guys who have a year of ace-level results(and to be fair, the extent to which Dickey really qualifies last year as a top notch guy is debatable) and then don't follow up on it.

edit: Although after a little digging there does seem to be some disconnect here where the reports going around right now as reported by Ken Rosenthal is just that the Mets/Jays have the agreement in principal and then they cite the same New York Post story about the D'Arnaud/Syndergaard rumours so the "reached an agreement" report does not validate the NYP report.

 

[Justin]

Anyhow, knuckleballers have shown they can pitch well late in their careers. I have no reason to believe Dickey's previous season was a fluke considering he reinvented himself and is a completely different RA Dickey than the Dickey a few years prior. He's a clubhouse leader, a solid veteran presence, and a Cy Young winner. He's an ace - an ace that completes Toronto's rotation to be one of if not the best in baseball.

I think the problem most people have with that is that it seems as though the Blue Jays are paying Ace-level prices for a guy who isn't established himself as a guy who year-in and year-out can pitch to that level. Ignore age, ignore his style of pitching, there are tons of guys who have a year of ace-level results(and to be fair, the extent to which Dickey really qualifies last year as a top notch guy is debatable) and then don't follow up on it.

edit: Although after a little digging there does seem to be some disconnect here where the reports going around right now as reported by Ken Rosenthal is just that the Mets/Jays have the agreement in principal and then they cite the same New York Post story about the D'Arnaud/Syndergaard rumours so the "reached an agreement" report does not validate the NYP report.

There's definite risk in this deal, but that's not dissimilar to Johnson or even Reyes. I understand the worry here, but at least the Jays are going for it. The prices for a 1-year ace (Dickey) or an off-year ace (Johnson) are obviously going to be cheaper for a well-established guy and that's why we're going in this direction. It's an all-or-nothing approach. Just imagine a rotation that may consist of 3 #1's (Dickey, Romero, Johnson) plus Morrow and Buerhle. Rogers has finally ceased treating this team like a small-market poor cousin and I'm ecstatic.

 

[Kin]

There's definite risk in this deal, but that's not dissimilar to Johnson or even Reyes. I understand the worry here, but at least the Jays are going for it. The prices for a 1-year ace (Dickey) or an off-year ace (Johnson) are obviously going to be cheaper for a well-established guy and that's why we're going in this direction. It's an all-or-nothing approach. Just imagine a rotation that may consist of 3 #1's (Dickey, Romero, Johnson) plus Morrow and Buerhle. Rogers has finally ceased treating this team like a small-market poor cousin and I'm ecstatic.

I worry, though, that this is a bit of an overreaction to those long lean years. You're right, there are risks involved with dealing prospects for guys like Johnson or Dickey but that's why doing two of those deals in one year seems like going overboard. As Busta said regarding the Jeff Kent/David Cone deal there's a ton we don't know about this team as is and right now it seems like the Jays are banking on a ton of risky options paying off.

 

[Andy007]

There's definite risk in this deal, but that's not dissimilar to Johnson or even Reyes. I understand the worry here, but at least the Jays are going for it. The prices for a 1-year ace (Dickey) or an off-year ace (Johnson) are obviously going to be cheaper for a well-established guy and that's why we're going in this direction. It's an all-or-nothing approach. Just imagine a rotation that may consist of 3 #1's (Dickey, Romero, Johnson) plus Morrow and Buerhle. Rogers has finally ceased treating this team like a small-market poor cousin and I'm ecstatic.

I worry, though, that this is a bit of an overreaction to those long lean years. You're right, there are risks involved with dealing prospects for guys like Johnson or Dickey but that's why doing two of those deals in one year seems like going overboard. As Busta said regarding the Jeff Kent/David Cone deal there's a ton we don't know about this team as is and right now it seems like the Jays are banking on a ton of risky options paying off.

I agree, especially when we don't know which Romero we're getting next year, if Morrow can stay healthy/consistent and Johnson can return to pre-injury form. Furthermore, I think Buerhle is going to get smoked in the AL East. A talented roster to be sure, but one that I can see very easily underperforming. I just hope I'm wrong.

 

[maplesyrup]

Rosenthal;

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-ra-dickey-american-league-east-time-is-now-121612

I get it, and I applaud it. In fact, I?m starting to love it.

 

[#1PilarFan]

I agree, especially when we don't know which Romero we're getting next year, if Morrow can stay healthy/consistent and Johnson can return to pre-injury form. Furthermore, I think Buerhle is going to get smoked in the AL East. A talented roster to be sure, but one that I can see very easily underperforming. I just hope I'm wrong.

Looking at Buerhle's career numbers, the only AL East team that really has his number is New York. Boston did alright against him (but with far better lineups than the one they're going to field opening day) and Tampa and Baltimore didn't do anything terribly impressive.

His numbers in the Rogers Centre are pretty good too, though that may say more about the Jays than his comfort in the park.