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2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

#1PilarFan said:
Nik V. Debs said:
Over the last four seasons Shields has averaged a 1.7 bWAR and last year he was at 2.2. It's a fair argument to say that he's had better seasons and might be better next year if the question is who won the trade but if you're addressing it strictly from the point of whether or not Tampa will be better next year all you need to do is replace those numbers.
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No, replacing his numbers would not make the Rays better.
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Well, alright, marginally exceeding them then.
 
From 680 News

Vegas bookies peg Jays as World Series favourites after Dickey deal

Jaime PulferDec 18, 2012 06:47:37 AM

TORONTO, Ont. - After failing to make the playoffs since last winning the World Series almost 20-years-ago, the Blue Jays are now favourites to win the championship.

Las Vegas oddsmakers have now given the Jays 8-1 odds to win it all, after General Manager Alex Anthopolous made yet another splash, trading for reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey.

Dickey, a 38-year-old knuckleballer, who won the NL Cy Young last year, is expected to anchor an already impressive Jays' rotation.

The players could not be more thrilled about the addition, as catcher J.P. Arencibia made clear.

"I feel like Christmas has come early, I just want to get down there and start working and get the team together, and do what we need to do, work toward winning a championship," Arencibia said.

Fellow Jays' pitcher Ricky Romero says it has already been an exciting offseason, and continued the theme of getting down to work.

"We still have a lot of work to do and the division we play in is not an easy division, so we have to continue to work, and just win," Romero said.

The move comes after Anthopolous already made a blockbuster trade with the Marlins earlier in the offseason, acquiring pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, shortstop Jose Reyes and infielder Emilio Bonifacio.

Many analysts have said the Jays were clear winners this offseason, calling Anthopolous the busiest man in baseball.

"It's all supposed to be about winning, I think sometime we lose sight of that fact, that's the end goal and that's the end game, I think you have to sit back and wait for the opportunity to pounce," Anthopolous said.

Dickey, who went 20-6 with a 2.73 earned-run average for the Mets in 2012, is coming off a season in which he led the NL in strikeouts (230), ERA, innings (233 2-3), complete games (five) and shutouts (three).

Despite battling an abdominal injury, Dickey became the Mets' first 20-game winner since Frank Viola in 1990 and the first major leaguer in 24 years to throw consecutive one-hitters.

The trade involves the Blue Jays sending our top catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud, top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, backup catcher John Buck and minor-league outfielder Wuilmer Becerra to the New York Mets.

The Mets returned Dickey, catcher Josh Thole and minor-league catcher Mike Nickeas.

D'Arnaud is considered the Jays' number one prospect and perhaps the best catching prospect in the game, while the 6'5" Syndergaard is a hard-throwing pitching prospect considered one of the Jays' best.
 
Rob L said:
Nobody likes to root for the favorite.  :-\
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I just hate the conclusions that are made in the off season.. it almost always points to the team that made the most noise either being the new favorite to win it all or suddenly up amongst the top 3-4 teams.

As gigantic a leap forward the Jays have taken, I think calling them favorites just looks like the normal media attention to the biggest newsmakers. I think the Jays may have joined a group of contending teams..... but favorite?... that is a bit silly, considering they haven't played a single game as this new unit yet.
 
Yeah, I mean the only thing I can say with complete confidence at this point is that by far, we have the best looking fans. #happytocontribute
 
Yeah, calling the Jays the WS favourite is a stretch. They've probably had the most impactful off season, sure, and they're a serious playoff contender, but, WS . . . only in Vegas.
 
I was catching all the tweets about RA Dickey's media conference call. Seems like a very nice guy. Here are a few highlights:

- Certainly happy to be part of #Bluejays family, I see it as a family. Really bought into vision of us being cohesive unit next few yrs
-  AA was already in Nashville by the time Alderson called Dickey to tell him the deal was done
- RAD: Asked (Alderson) point-blank that if you're gonna do this (trade me) please do it to a team that has a chance to win.
- RAD: It meant a lot to me that Alex had the foresight to be down here....because it allowed me to look him in the eye
- RAD: I felt very comfortable around (AA), and around Jon Gibbons. He knows I'm all in, I'm gonna pitch my guts out
- Dickey points out advantage that both he and Arencibia live in Nashville, so they'll
- Dickey, on stories of not being good in room: "Go ask my teammates be able to work together over winter.
- What I like about Dickey is that he seems genuinely friendly, calls people by name, says "you're welcome" after being thanked.
- Dickey confirms that #Mets maximum offer, though informal, was $20 million over two years.
- Dickey says it's important for him to grieve leaving NY, but that's over and now "I can't tell you how excited I am
- Conference call is over - Dickey spent 50 minutes on the phone with the media. Over 3x as long as most such calls
 
Saying Dickey has only been great for one year based on his W/L record is ridiculous. Two seasons ago he had an ERA of 3.28 and was 8-13, when you have an ERA of 3.28 and your record is only 8-13 your record clearly isn't an indication of how well you've pitched that year, rather a reflection of lack of run support.
 
ontariojames said:
Saying Dickey has only been great for one year based on his W/L record is ridiculous. Two seasons ago he had an ERA of 3.28 and was 8-13, when you have an ERA of 3.28 and your record is only 8-13 your record clearly isn't an indication of how well you've pitched that year, rather a reflection of lack of run support.
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I don't think anyone has said that he's only had one great year based on a W-L record but rather based on WAR, ERA+ and other advanced metrics.
 
Nik V. Debs said:
I don't think anyone has said that he's only had one great year based on a W-L record but rather based on WAR, ERA+ and other advanced metrics.
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Yup. I mean, I won't deny that he had two good to very good seasons in 2010 and 2011, but they weren't, as far as I'm concerned, "give up 2 top prospects to acquire him" type seasons.
 
Corn Flake said:
World Series favs now?

???

No pressure.
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Imagine how much pressure John Gibbons is under. Remember, many weren't all too enamored with his hiring in the first place. If things go sour people will be calling for his head in a big way.
 
I ALMOST feel bad... I remember heckling the bejesus out of Langerhans a few years back. I just got caught up in it and me, a buddy of mine, and a few other guys I didn't know were just terrible. 
 
Nik V. Debs said:
I said that Dickey, before this season, had never even had a season over 4.0 bWAR and that Johnson had only had two. That's to highlight the relatively low value of their other seasons, not suggesting that 4.0 is a great season. BR, whose formula you've been using, puts an "all-star" season at 5.0
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Well admitttedly, I'm not all too familiar with WAR, but I think there's two problems - one is that you're kind of going back and forth between two different calculations of it. The other is saying something like Johnson's only had two 4.0+ seasons when BR had his all-star seasons at 6.4 and 6.8 respectively (fan graphs has him at 5.6 and 6.4, or "superstar"). That's like saying Bautista's only hit 30+ homers twice. It's not wrong, but it's not really telling the whole story.

By either site's measurements, Dickey had an all-star year last year and was very good the previous two years.

I disagree to an extent here because the Miami deal was largely motivated, I think we can agree, by salary issues and so the Jays got an inordinately large return on what they gave up. The Mayor of New York isn't going to be petitioning Major League Baseball to overturn this deal.
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While the cost is up for debate, Dickey was most certainly dealt due to salary issues. And the latter has more to do with optics than anything else.

Well, I completely disagree about Buehrle as the guy is about as consistent a property as you get in the bigs.
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In terms of what? You seem to be stressing the importance of WAR and if it is the great predictor, Beuhrle's on the decline.

So the Jays should trade Sanchez then for a marginal left-handed reliever? Osuna and Gose for a good bat off the bench? Why leave any cards in the deck if this year is all or nothing and winning in 2013 is paramount to all other considerations?

Of course not. That's not a reasonable argument.
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No, but that's clearly not an argument I was ever making. I mean, there is a huge, huge, huge difference between trading a guy who is now a great candidate for the Jays top prospect for a marginal player in a position we don't need filled and trading two top prospects for a guy coming off what anyone would agree was an all-star year that ended with a Cy Young. Just as I never said you were against all forms of risk, I am not advocating winning at all costs. But, when you make the decision to invest heavily into the roster, you've got to do it 110%. That doesn't mean you lose all common sense, but the market has established what it costs to get good pitching and unfortunately, that price is extremely high. 

We're talking about where a line gets drawn, not whether there is one or not. There will be a 2014, even if Josh Johnson isn't around. Making the Miami deal, paring down the club's prospect depth to acquire players who you yourself say have question marks, is reason to be more careful with future deals, not less. D'Arnaud and Syndergaard weren't going away. Trades can be made in-season. There was no rush or need to compound the risk of the Miami deal by immediately making another risky deal.

Even if you did believe that nothing matters more than the upcoming season there are ways to go heavier on it that aren't this, that don't carry the risk of trading away two of the team's top three prospects.
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Are there though? You can see the cost of pitching nowadays. Shields went for one of the best prospects in baseball. Greinke got $147m with another $11m in bonuses. Anibal Sanchez is a $16m/year player. If you don't think the Jays needed another good starter, that's fine or if you think Dickey wasn't the right guy, that's understandable, but you cannot get good pitching for nothing. The cost for established major league pitching is extremely high.


Spending a bunch of money on Edwin Jackson/Adam Laroche might be dumb but nobody would say "Boy, is that risky" and they combined for the same 5.6 WAR last season that Dickey had.
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That's assuming that spending a bunch of money is even possible. AA has mentioned more than a few times that he doesn't have an endless supply of cash. AA took on a bunch of contracts with MIA and it looks like he's pretty much run out of payroll flexibility. To make the deal work with the Mets, he sent them Buck ($6m) and Dickey's still on his $5m club option, though I've heard reports that the money might be more spread out than usual. So, for next season AA really actually dropped salary if he sticks to the club option, or likely added a couple million as opposed to the $15-18m needed to sign Jackson and Laroche.

But more to the point, you keep glossing over the specifics as if it's immaterial to what I'm saying when it's the bulk of what I'm saying. Whether or not Dickey is worth what they gave up is the bulk of why I don't like this deal, not a blanket aversion to risk(even if I do feel risk shouldn't be compounded by more of it).
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Well, from what I can tell you're arguing two things: (1) they gave up too much for Dickey and (2) they didn't need to add another arm and now is not the time to try to win. The former I'm inclined to agree with you - I don't feel comfortable paying that price, but it's not unreasonable, it's just unfortunate.

I don't see how I'm "glossing over details", but if I am it's because we fundamentally disagree on the second part of the argument. There is an opportunity in the AL East next season to do real, serious damage. There is an opportunity to make the playoffs and in a big way. AA helped create that opportunity by acquiring major league talent from a team that wanted to cut costs. Now he's acquired the NL Cy Young winner. I get that Dickey is unconventional in pretty much every way. He's old, he's a knuckleballer, his success is recent and until last year, he was good but not great. I got to say as a Jays fan I've seen a lot of losers and while this may blow up in AA's face, he put himself in a position to win by loading up on minor league talent then dealing from a position of strength to address his major league weaknesses. Frankly, it's about time. JP wasn't creative enough to go all in properly and as a result he built a good-but-not-good-enough team. AA isn't taking that chance.
 
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