2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Andy007]

I guess part of what makes this trade a little easier for the Jays to make than it would be for other teams is the depth they still have in high-end pitching prospects (Sanchez, Norris, Smoral, etc) and the fact that they have a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.

Additionally, Nolin, Osuna, Hutchinson and heck even Drabek are all quality young pitchers with significant upside. Syndergaard is hard to see go just because of how good a pitching prospect he is, but you're right, the prospect pitching depth is still pretty strong. 

 

[Corn Flake]

AA and the Jays have hoarded prospects for a time like they when they could dip (more like dive) into their prospect pool and tell the baseball world they are ?all in?.

I just wonder if it were better to hold on to the prospects, and sign a Marcum/Lohse who costs nothing, or have Happ as the 5th starter, and then see where the team was come July.  My concern is that if the Jays realize they need that one extra piece come then, they may no longer have the chips to play to make that deal.

I can't help but be this way, but even though I was really excited about d?Arnaud as a Jay, now I wish he turns into a flop.

Part of me agrees and another part of me thinks that this type of thinking (self included) is what separates Toronto from the other sports towns that are always in the contention discussion .. we (and management most of the time) tend to err on the side of being too cautious when it comes to going after elite talent due to price and opt to keep young players instead, and rarely ever reap the benefits of that. 

Remember when the Leafs were unwilling to part with Steen in a trade for Pronger?  Pronger won a cup, Steen ended up dealt for nothing and the Leafs went nowhere as the Sundin window closed.  Many thought "good on JFJ for refusing to trade Steen".  *smacks forehead* Why oh why...!

What I love about this is the "all in" attitude here.  If you are going to go in, you really can't go halfway. Kind of like what Riccardi did when he got money from Rogers to spend.. he got a few good pieces but left too many holes and put so much pressure on those few pieces to bring the team to the next level.. well, Burnett was still an injury problem as was Glaus, then when Ryan got hurt there was no backup plan. etc.  (yes the current team isn't necessarily stacked at every position but it's as good and as deep as it's ever been in juuuust about every key position)

We've seen time and time again where money has prevented a Toronto sports team from landing the big fish... goes back to Gretzky to Toronto and Stavro not willing to pay the money.  Or a Burke not willing to part with a silly principle to sign a Brad Richards (even though he probably wouln't have sold him on not going to NY) when it would have only cost a rich team some money.

So while it feels like it kind of goes against everything I've believed about letting your depth and prospects emerge and become a team, I think you have to go for it at some point and it's a theory that we haven't seen a lot of from Toronto sports teams, and could be a big reason why they have won jack squat.

 

[Champ Kind]

I guess part of what makes this trade a little easier for the Jays to make than it would be for other teams is the depth they still have in high-end pitching prospects (Sanchez, Norris, Smoral, etc) and the fact that they have a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.

Yeah, they took some fine ingredients out of the cupboard this winter but they certainly didn't empty it. If you're in to prospect porn, there's still pieces there to get happy about.

Plus Drabek and Hutchinson among others who are right there and will eventually be back pitching at the AAA level and hopefully on the MLB path again.

Deck McGuire?

 

[maplesyrup]

You know, as I continue to read Dickey's bio and discover his interests, hear/read some of the stuff he has to say etc, I find that this might be the only Jay on the roster I can sort of relate to. - Maybe it's an age thing.

 

[Andy007]

I guess part of what makes this trade a little easier for the Jays to make than it would be for other teams is the depth they still have in high-end pitching prospects (Sanchez, Norris, Smoral, etc) and the fact that they have a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.

Yeah, they took some fine ingredients out of the cupboard this winter but they certainly didn't empty it. If you're in to prospect porn, there's still pieces there to get happy about.

Plus Drabek and Hutchinson among others who are right there and will eventually be back pitching at the AAA level and hopefully on the MLB path again.

Deck McGuire?

ERA near 6 in AA as a 23yo

 

[Kin]

I don't think it's accurate to say the Rays got better next year by dealing for Myers. Yeah, he's a great looking prospect, but Shields is a bigger loss than you are stating and Myers has exactly zero major league at bats. Long term, it's a great move, but relying on Myers to bolster your offense is probably not a great idea.

Well, for what it's worth, I said that I think they'll be better next year because of this trade. BR and Fangraphs differ greatly on how they calculate WAR but if you do favour BR's method they had Shields at 2.2 WAR next year. It's not a reach at all to think that whoever they plug into the rotation for Shields + whatever they might get from Myers will equal 2.2 wins.

 

[Kin]

I don't like this deal much either due to the cost and the fact that I think D'Arnaud and Syndegaard could net pretty much any pitcher on a team looking to make a move, but I don't think you're being fair. That they don't have a surefire ace is a testament to the depth of the rotation. Most other rotations, Dickey or JJ would be your surefire ace. Now we're looking at both and asking ourselves whose better while picking apart their careers.

Well, no. Ace, to me anyway, doesn't just mean #1 starter. Every team has a #1 starter but not every team has a guy who should be fronting a rotation. Both Dickey and JJ can be an ace but they're not a Sabathia or a Verlander or Kershaw or Hernandez or....whoever. Dickey has one year, according to both BR and Fangraphs, of being a 4+ win pitcher. Johnson's done it twice but a few arm injuries ago. 

So they have a couple guys who can pitch at that level, yes, but they don't have guys who have great track records of being there.

The bullpen is looking pretty solid, with Santos coming back, Janssen entrenched as closer and a ton of live arms to choose from.

I think that's...strong concerning Janssen. He had a good year closing last year, and had a great year out of the pen the year before, but is he a lockdown guy at the backend? Maybe. But he doesn't have the track record.

And finally, the offense will probably be one of the better ones in the league. Sure, Encarnacion will regress, but we didn't get the most out of Bautista or (I think) Lawrie last season and Reyes and Cabrera will only help offensively. I mean, AA transformed a middling team (when healthy) to a contender overMarli night. We should be thankful for that. The only problem is that he gutted the farm system to do it and his last move cost an awful lot.

I think the offense can be good. One of the best in the league? Eh...I'm not sold. Either way, I agree with you a lot. I very much like the Marlins trade. I don't know how I feel about the Dickey trade as reported because it seems to me as though the Jays have now traded three of their top five prospects and five of their top ten and they didn't land anyone at the very top of the heap. Like Peter D. said, I think that it would have been modire prudent to see how the team did with the Marlins additions and if Arencibia can finally hit enough before making another move for a pitcher.

 

[Peter D.]

AA and the Jays have hoarded prospects for a time like they when they could dip (more like dive) into their prospect pool and tell the baseball world they are ?all in?.

I just wonder if it were better to hold on to the prospects, and sign a Marcum/Lohse who costs nothing, or have Happ as the 5th starter, and then see where the team was come July.  My concern is that if the Jays realize they need that one extra piece come then, they may no longer have the chips to play to make that deal.

I can't help but be this way, but even though I was really excited about d?Arnaud as a Jay, now I wish he turns into a flop.

Part of me agrees and another part of me thinks that this type of thinking (self included) is what separates Toronto from the other sports towns that are always in the contention discussion .. we (and management most of the time) tend to err on the side of being too cautious when it comes to going after elite talent due to price and opt to keep young players instead, and rarely ever reap the benefits of that. 

Remember when the Leafs were unwilling to part with Steen in a trade for Pronger?  Pronger won a cup, Steen ended up dealt for nothing and the Leafs went nowhere as the Sundin window closed.  Many thought "good on JFJ for refusing to trade Steen".  *smacks forehead* Why oh why...!

I completely agree with this.  I didn't want to bring up the Kessel and Raycroft trades as to not start a pissing match (and to not get myself pissed), but since HS already did, I will say that this is the time where a Toronto team could take a gamble like this and get away with it, unlike those trades at the time.  It may not work out, but at least the Jays still have a buffer. 

Again, AA has given me enough to trust him that even if I'm not in complete agreeance with the trade, I could live with it.  Have to give him credit for not half-assing this thing -- the division is ripe for the taking and he's going for it. 

Also have to applaud Beeston and Rogers for sticking to their word on the increased payroll.  Practically all of us were skeptical, and they shut us up.  Now it's our turn to reciprocate it by filling the Dome up again.

 

[Justin]

I guess part of what makes this trade a little easier for the Jays to make than it would be for other teams is the depth they still have in high-end pitching prospects (Sanchez, Norris, Smoral, etc) and the fact that they have a top 10 pick in the 2013 draft.

Yeah, they took some fine ingredients out of the cupboard this winter but they certainly didn't empty it. If you're in to prospect porn, there's still pieces there to get happy about.

Plus Drabek and Hutchinson among others who are right there and will eventually be back pitching at the AAA level and hopefully on the MLB path again.

Deck McGuire?

ERA near 6 in AA as a 23yo

Yikes. He was drafted 11th overall.

 

[Justin]

When first hearing about this trade I was skeptical but over the last few days I've convinced myself that this a great move for the Blue Jays for the following reasons:

-D'Arnaud could be great one day but he has a shoddy injury history and his numbers are slightly inflated by playing in the PCL. As well, the Jays already have an above-average catcher at the major league level under contract for 4 years which definitely softens the blow of losing D'Arnaud.

-Syndergaard is still 3-4 years away from the MLB and a lot can happen between now and then. Who knows where the Jays will be at in 3-4 years time? We need to win now. It's also not uncommon for fireballers in low-A to flame out through their time in the system. Not saying this will happen to Syndergaard, but there's risk in keeping him instead of trading for a Cy Young winner.

-The Jays get to shed the $6 M salary of John Buck, which may seem insignificant but its's a bonus nonetheless. In return we also get a catcher that's caught Dickey and his knuckleball before which eliminates the transition time that would be needed between Dickey and Toronto's catchers.

Above all, I think this is a great move because the Jays are finally going for it. It's been a long time, Toronto. Rogers, after facing years of criticism for treating the Jays like a small market team, has finally opened their multi-billion dollar wallet. The Jays' rotation now contains the potential to have 3 legitimate #1's in it. How cool is that? We can expect to see larger crowds at the dome this year which has me pumped. It's so refreshing to have the Jays back in the Show.

 

[Peter D.]

I'm sure Arencibia is thrilled with the vote of confidence that he is the guy going forward in the immediate future, barring a trade for another catcher.

He has his shortcomings, but I don't mind having a guy around who loves the city and meshes well with his teammates.

 

[Kin]

We've seen time and time again where money has prevented a Toronto sports team from landing the big fish... goes back to Gretzky to Toronto and Stavro not willing to pay the money.  Or a Burke not willing to part with a silly principle to sign a Brad Richards (even though he probably wouln't have sold him on not going to NY) when it would have only cost a rich team some money.

So while it feels like it kind of goes against everything I've believed about letting your depth and prospects emerge and become a team, I think you have to go for it at some point and it's a theory that we haven't seen a lot of from Toronto sports teams, and could be a big reason why they have won jack squat.

But the thing is that in Baseball there really is a middle ground. You can spend a ton of money and develop prospects. We saw the Yankees do it in their better years, we've seen teams like the Cardinals do it. Boston did it in Epstein's better years.

This isn't a kneejerk reaction to prospects being dealt. It's that people are genuinely questioning whether or not the Jays got good value for their prospects. In the Marlins deal, I think they unquestionably did. I think everyone is comfortable with the Jays spending more money but I think the last few years have taught us that bad value deals are bad value deals regardless of who makes them.

 

[Corn Flake]

Again, AA has given me enough to trust him that even if I'm not in complete agreeance with the trade, I could live with it.  Have to give him credit for not half-assing this thing -- the division is ripe for the taking and he's going for it. 

Many feel the Dickey trade is perhaps one big move too many and with the previous moves, why was it even necessary?  It may very well be that they didn't need to do this but if one of those current big 4 goes down for any extended period, having five legit SP's as good as these 5 are won't look like one too many.  Given the injury fun we've had, not a bad idea.

I would rather have one too many than be one short.  These 5 should bury the Yanks and Red Sox and should give TB a very good run for their money all season long. 

 

[Peter D.]

Many feel the Dickey trade is perhaps one big move too many and with the previous moves, why was it even necessary? It may very well be that they didn't need to do this but if one of those current big 4 goes down for any extended period, having five legit SP's as good as these 5 are won't look like one too many.  Given the injury fun we've had, not a bad idea.

I would rather have one too many than be one short.  These 5 should bury the Yanks and Red Sox and should give TB a very good run for their money all season long.

I'm of that mindset as mentioned in my initial post.  But it's tough not to get stoked by this all.  Then again, all these fun and games that went on in November and December mean squat if this team isn't contending for a playoff spot come September.

 

[dappleganger]

I don't think it's accurate to say the Rays got better next year by dealing for Myers. Yeah, he's a great looking prospect, but Shields is a bigger loss than you are stating and Myers has exactly zero major league at bats. Long term, it's a great move, but relying on Myers to bolster your offense is probably not a great idea.

Well, for what it's worth, I said that I think they'll be better next year because of this trade. BR and Fangraphs differ greatly on how they calculate WAR but if you do favour BR's method they had Shields at 2.2 WAR next year. It's not a reach at all to think that whoever they plug into the rotation for Shields + whatever they might get from Myers will equal 2.2 wins.

You might want to check your algebra.

 

[Kin]

Well, for what it's worth, I said that I think they'll be better next year because of this trade. BR and Fangraphs differ greatly on how they calculate WAR but if you do favour BR's method they had Shields at 2.2 WAR next year. It's not a reach at all to think that whoever they plug into the rotation for Shields + whatever they might get from Myers will equal 2.2 wins.

You might want to check your algebra.

Sorry, that should read 2.2 bWAR for last year, not next.

 

[dappleganger]

Well, for what it's worth, I said that I think they'll be better next year because of this trade. BR and Fangraphs differ greatly on how they calculate WAR but if you do favour BR's method they had Shields at 2.2 WAR next year. It's not a reach at all to think that whoever they plug into the rotation for Shields + whatever they might get from Myers will equal 2.2 wins.

You might want to check your algebra.

Sorry, that should read 2.2 bWAR for last year, not next.

I think you also have to take into account bWAR of the player that will be replacing Shields replacement in the starting five and also the player Wil Myers will be replacing.

 

[Kin]

I think you also have to take into account bWAR of the player that will be replacing Shields replacement in the starting five and also the player Wil Myers will be replacing.

Except the guy I'm figuring on "replacing" Shields will be whoever they add to the rotation. Cobb, Moore, Hellickson and Price are there anyway. If the fifth starter is Odorizzi then, no, you don't have to account for the value of whoever replaces Odorizzi in AAA. If it's Niemann then there is no replacement for him as he was on the DL for most of the season.

As for who Myers is replacing it's impossible to tell until we find out how they're juggling their line-up but Luke Scott figures to be the odd man out and he had a bWAR of 0.1 so it's not really a major consideration.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Many feel the Dickey trade is perhaps one big move too many and with the previous moves, why was it even necessary? It may very well be that they didn't need to do this but if one of those current big 4 goes down for any extended period, having five legit SP's as good as these 5 are won't look like one too many.  Given the injury fun we've had, not a bad idea.

I would rather have one too many than be one short.  These 5 should bury the Yanks and Red Sox and should give TB a very good run for their money all season long.

I'm of that mindset as mentioned in my initial post.

I don't think you can ever have enough pitching.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Obviously small sample size...

Scott Cullen ‏@tsnscottcullen

From my R.A. Dickey column, in the last three seasons, his interleague numbers: 7-0, 1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 71 K in 71 IP over 10 starts. #MLB