2015 NHL Entry Draft

[CarltonTheBear]

If Sprong and Svechnikov were off the table (plus nobody like Konecny drops big time), I'd consider moving down. But I wouldn't want to drop out of the top-40, so Columbus and New Jersey would be the only teams I'd be looking at.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I want them all.  Strome, Marner, Barzal, Zacha, Konecny, Bueller.

 

[bustaheims]

I want them all.  Strome, Marner, Barzal, Zacha, Konecny, Bueller.

I'd pass on Bueller. Takes too many days off.

 

[Bullfrog]

I want them all.  Strome, Marner, Barzal, Zacha, Konecny, Bueller.

I'd pass on Bueller. Takes too many days off.

Winner.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I would like to see us pick up another first rounder or two. It's not necessarily likely, but I'd love to be able to move Kessel and get Barzal, and I'd be inquiring about Edmonton's 16th overall wih Phaneuf +. That would give us a shot at Svechnikov/Konecny/Bittner.

As much as I want those players/draft slots, I also just really want the team to be awful next year. Maybe move Kessel to Buffalo for 2016 picks (they have a bunch of first rounders next year too right?).

 

[Kin]

A 2nd or 3rd round pick has generally been the price to move up a couple spots, though, and if a team really likes one prospect more than everyone else available, it's not uncommon to see moves like that. As for the Leafs end of things, if they don't feel that way about a particular prospect or if they feel they can still get the guy they want a couple slots later, then picking up any other asset in a deal that works in their favour.

Fair enough. The only other team(besides the ones I mentioned) that seems likely there would be Winnipeg then at #25. They have 47 and 78 which I guess might be worth moving up a spot. Montreal at #26 doesn't have their second so could only offer 87 to move up two spots which seems, again, like a bad deal for the Leafs.

 

[bustaheims]

Fair enough. The only other team(besides the ones I mentioned) that seems likely there would be Winnipeg then at #25. They have 47 and 78 which I guess might be worth moving up a spot. Montreal at #26 doesn't have their second so could only offer 87 to move up two spots which seems, again, like a bad deal for the Leafs.

Maybe, but I think a 2nd rounder next year would also be worth considering. The draft may not be quite as deep, but a team like Montreal could also quite easily find themselves lower in the standings, which could even things out some. Just things the team should be considering.

 

[L K]

If Sprong and Svechnikov were off the table (plus nobody like Konecny drops big time), I'd consider moving down. But I wouldn't want to drop out of the top-40, so Columbus and New Jersey would be the only teams I'd be looking at.

I feel like Kylington is having one of those "drops for reasons" kind of drafts.  I'd be pretty inclined to take him. 

 

[MetalRaven]

Ive read a few places that Montreal used to trade "the right to switch 1st round picks"
Is there a rule against this now? It seems odd that we dont see anything like that nowadays. Or have I just missed them?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

TheLeafsNation looked at whether trading down is a good idea: http://theleafsnation.com/2015/5/14/why-the-leafs-trading-down-at-the-draft-is-a-good-or-bad-idea

They made a table showing all the times a team traded down in the top-60 in the past 4 drafts:

Gives you an idea of what it would take.

 

[Kin]

And, of course, the Leafs made the worst trade on the list.

 

[lamajama]

At 4 we're going to get a great player regardless unless someone tries to prove they are better than all the scouting reports....

It's the later rounds 3+ that we need to make count. We do have some potential from the later rounds in the past few years but none that the hockey world is excited about (as indicated with the Futurewatch rankings).

Personally I hope Dion and Bozak are gone for higher picks and prospects for this draft and we pick up some 2nd round picks at minimum.

 

[Bender]

At 4 we're going to get a great player regardless unless someone tries to prove they are better than all the scouting reports....

It's the later rounds 3+ that we need to make count. We do have some potential from the later rounds in the past few years but none that the hockey world is excited about (as indicated with the Futurewatch rankings).

Personally I hope Dion and Bozak are gone for higher picks and prospects for this draft and we pick up some 2nd round picks at minimum.

That's exactly what Dubas said. It would be crazy if we could score a Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Kucherov, Gaudreau. We need to hit on those later picks.

 

[herman]

From: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/25/8654451/mondays-ftb-laying-down-the-stammer

I did some spreadsheet work on draft eligible players, thanks to CHLstats.com (awesome site, btw). I recently saw some research that secondary assists are essentially useless, and not really indicative of talent at all, at least at the NHL level. While I haven?t done any testing to prove this, it wouldn?t surprise me that the same thing holds true for junior (I?ll test that out later, but it?s probably true, and like the undergrad I am, I?ll skip steps and be lazy). And we all know that ES scoring is a more ?true? representation of a player?s talent. So I calculated a bunch of draft-eligible players? ES Primary Points per game ((ES Goals + ES 1st assists)/GP). I did this for each league (O,W,Q) and took the top 50 players in each (I figured we wouldn?t really care about anyone lower than that). This doesn?t capture every draft eligible players, as it?s age based, not draft year based, but every player in the sheet is draft eligible.

 

[Frank E]

From: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/25/8654451/mondays-ftb-laying-down-the-stammer

I did some spreadsheet work on draft eligible players, thanks to CHLstats.com (awesome site, btw). I recently saw some research that secondary assists are essentially useless, and not really indicative of talent at all, at least at the NHL level. While I haven?t done any testing to prove this, it wouldn?t surprise me that the same thing holds true for junior (I?ll test that out later, but it?s probably true, and like the undergrad I am, I?ll skip steps and be lazy). And we all know that ES scoring is a more ?true? representation of a player?s talent. So I calculated a bunch of draft-eligible players? ES Primary Points per game ((ES Goals + ES 1st assists)/GP). I did this for each league (O,W,Q) and took the top 50 players in each (I figured we wouldn?t really care about anyone lower than that). This doesn?t capture every draft eligible players, as it?s age based, not draft year based, but every player in the sheet is draft eligible.

I'd like to see the data from 5 years ago.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Well based solely on highlight videos and some reading of scouting reports I'd rather Marner of Hanifin.

Marner has some unreal skill and his passing appears elite to me, his speed is apparent in most goals and assists in this video. He also seems to be thinking ahead as some plays/passes were totally surprising to me. He looks smaller than I thought he would:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ7nUCU3XZI

Strome looks fine but most goals and assists seem to be in close and at a slower speed. I doubt he'd get the time in the NHL to make a good portion of these plays:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTgDUuUstYk

There aren't a lot of Hanifin videos readily available (that I could find anyway), but the little I could find he looks like a very quality defence man.

With regards to Marner vs. Strome I'd go Marner. Looks like best case scenario he's a Giroux/Kane type player (maybe not as good in the end) and worst case scenario he's a Mike Cammalleri (hopefully minus the injuries).

Strome looks like a best case scenario Joe Thornton and worst case scenario a Nik Antropov (who was a very useful player just not one I'd take in the top 4).

I could be way off. Check out the videos and let me know what you think!

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

From: http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/5/25/8654451/mondays-ftb-laying-down-the-stammer

I did some spreadsheet work on draft eligible players, thanks to CHLstats.com (awesome site, btw). I recently saw some research that secondary assists are essentially useless, and not really indicative of talent at all, at least at the NHL level. While I haven?t done any testing to prove this, it wouldn?t surprise me that the same thing holds true for junior (I?ll test that out later, but it?s probably true, and like the undergrad I am, I?ll skip steps and be lazy). And we all know that ES scoring is a more ?true? representation of a player?s talent. So I calculated a bunch of draft-eligible players? ES Primary Points per game ((ES Goals + ES 1st assists)/GP). I did this for each league (O,W,Q) and took the top 50 players in each (I figured we wouldn?t really care about anyone lower than that). This doesn?t capture every draft eligible players, as it?s age based, not draft year based, but every player in the sheet is draft eligible.

I'm not an advanced metrics guy by any means (that's why I used a baseball term!).

Does this take into account line mates? Would Strome have higher numbers because he's on a better team/line? I'd be interested to know how many ES points he scored with McDavid on the ice. Were his linemates better than Marner's?

They're impressive numbers but without that info it's hard to really put the numbers in context.

 

[herman]

I'm not an advanced metrics guy by any means (that's why I used a baseball term!).

Does this take into account line mates? Would Strome have higher numbers because he's on a better team/line? I'd be interested to know how many ES points he scored with McDavid on the ice. Were his linemates better than Marner's?

They're impressive numbers but without that info it's hard to really put the numbers in context.

I haven't done any of this research myself, but the premise of ignoring the 2nd Assist sounds like a way to control the linemate variable to a degree, using only surface stats. Obviously more data is required at all levels, but this casual glance highlights how big a gap there is between McDavid and the rest of the draft group (Eichel not shown as he is not in the CHL where the stats were gathered).

I haven't watched any of the OHL games so I can't even begin to surmise what context accounts for in these numbers.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I'm not an advanced metrics guy by any means (that's why I used a baseball term!).

Does this take into account line mates? Would Strome have higher numbers because he's on a better team/line? I'd be interested to know how many ES points he scored with McDavid on the ice. Were his linemates better than Marner's?

They're impressive numbers but without that info it's hard to really put the numbers in context.

I haven't done any of this research myself, but the premise of ignoring the 2nd Assist sounds like a way to control the linemate variable to a degree, using only surface stats. Obviously more data is required at all levels, but this casual glance highlights how big a gap there is between McDavid and the rest of the draft group (Eichel not shown as he is not in the CHL where the stats were gathered).

I haven't watched any of the OHL games so I can't even begin to surmise what context accounts for in these numbers.

Right. I didn't watch any games either so I have no idea if Strome played with McDavid. Figure that if he was it wouldn't be too hard to pick up a 1st or 2nd assist on a teammate who was picking up 4 pts per game.

With Marner and Strome's pt totals being so close I'd guess (total guess) that McDavid's influence on Strome's numbers would be enough to show Marner as the superior stand alone player (if that makes any sense) even without them playing a significant amount of time together. Conservatively I'd say Strome/McDavid connected for 30 of Strome's points.

Again I'd be interested to hear from someone who knows more/saw more of Strome's season.

Marner's speaks for itself IMO.

 

[Al14]

At 4 we're going to get a great player regardless unless someone tries to prove they are better than all the scouting reports....

It's the later rounds 3+ that we need to make count. We do have some potential from the later rounds in the past few years but none that the hockey world is excited about (as indicated with the Futurewatch rankings).

Personally I hope Dion and Bozak are gone for higher picks and prospects for this draft and we pick up some 2nd round picks at minimum.

I hope Kessel is dealt for 2015 picks too!