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2015 NHL Entry Draft

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I think it's going to be real tough convincing teams to just outright trade 1st round picks for this draft. At the deadline 1st rounders are a lot more ephemeral, teams don't know exactly where they're picking and they're focused on the matter at hand.

Once the season ends though and teams know where they're picking and start looking at scouting reports"(that, as mentioned tend to be pretty glowing for everyone), I'd bet that most teams start thinking that they're that one team that's going to be able to take the superstar at #24 or whatever.

I'd guess, although I haven't done looking into it, that when you look at 1st rounders who get dealt for players at the draft, rather than other picks, you'll find that typically the players in question are young players with pretty bright futures. Corey Schneider and Jordan Staal and the like.
 
A team I might look at seriously targeting is Columbus. They pick at 8, 34, 38, 68 and 69, have some bad money to dump(Bourque and Boll) and have picked 9 times in the top three rounds in the last two drafts.

Phaneuf for 34, 68, Bourque and an ok prospect would be a pretty good and realistic return.
 
Nik the Trik said:
A team I might look at seriously targeting is Columbus. They pick at 8, 34, 38, 68 and 69, have some bad money to dump(Bourque and Boll) and have picked 9 times in the top three rounds in the last two drafts.

Phaneuf for 34, 68, Bourque and an ok prospect would be a pretty good and realistic return.

They also have Clarkson. BWAHAHAHA!
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Nik the Trik said:
A team I might look at seriously targeting is Columbus. They pick at 8, 34, 38, 68 and 69, have some bad money to dump(Bourque and Boll) and have picked 9 times in the top three rounds in the last two drafts.

Phaneuf for 34, 68, Bourque and an ok prospect would be a pretty good and realistic return.

They also have Clarkson. BWAHAHAHA!

Right? So long as you don't skin them you can shear a sheep a bunch of times.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Nik the Trik said:
A team I might look at seriously targeting is Columbus. They pick at 8, 34, 38, 68 and 69, have some bad money to dump(Bourque and Boll) and have picked 9 times in the top three rounds in the last two drafts.

Phaneuf for 34, 68, Bourque and an ok prospect would be a pretty good and realistic return.

They also have Clarkson. BWAHAHAHA!

Right? So long as you don't skin them you can shear a sheep a bunch of times.

Jokes aside, is that really a good enough deal to take on Bourque?
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Jokes aside, is that really a good enough deal to take on Bourque?

Bourque's deal is nothing. 1 year left and 2.5 million. It's saving Columbus a little bit of money in the hope they agree to take on 6/42 million of Phaneuf. Not taking back any truly ugly contracts will be, I think, a big win.

The Leafs will have some magnitude to take money back if they trade Phaneuf and/or Kessel but not an unlimited amount. Absorbing bad contracts is, in it's own way, an asset the Leafs have and not having to really do it in this deal makes it better than it looks at first glance, I think.
 
The Leafs, by the way, have picks 4, 65, 95, 107, 125 and 155 so far with Nashville's pick still to be determined
 
Nik the Trik said:
A team I might look at seriously targeting is Columbus. They pick at 8, 34, 38, 68 and 69, have some bad money to dump(Bourque and Boll) and have picked 9 times in the top three rounds in the last two drafts.

Phaneuf for 34, 68, Bourque and an ok prospect would be a pretty good and realistic return.

I think the value both ways is good.  The only issue I can see is that the people who talk about Columbus on the Team 1200 mention that their strength is their D.  It might lessen their desire to trade for a d-man.
 
Significantly Insignificant said:
I think the value both ways is good.  The only issue I can see is that the people who talk about Columbus on the Team 1200 mention that their strength is their D.  It might lessen their desire to trade for a d-man.

In terms of the defensemen they're bringing back it's Jack Johnson, Fyodor Tyutin, David Savard, Kevin Connauton, Dalton Prout and Ryan Murray. Considering that they've got a former Vezina winner in net and a pretty decent forward core it's hard not to see their D as being their weakest point.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Significantly Insignificant said:
I think the value both ways is good.  The only issue I can see is that the people who talk about Columbus on the Team 1200 mention that their strength is their D.  It might lessen their desire to trade for a d-man.

In terms of the defensemen they're bringing back it's Jack Johnson, Fyodor Tyutin, David Savard, Kevin Connauton, Dalton Prout and Ryan Murray. Considering that they've got a former Vezina winner in net and a pretty decent forward core it's hard not to see their D as being their weakest point.

Stupid team 1200 guests.
 
Noah Hanifin...on being a possible Maple Leaf, on Connor, etc.

When asked about the possibility of landing with the Maple Leafs, the 18-year-old native of Norwood, Massachusetts spoke highly of Toronto?s tradition of being a hockey town.

?I?ve been to Toronto a bunch of times and it?s an unbelievable city,? he said. ?The hockey environment there is so special and if it ever works for me to be in Toronto, it?d be such an honour."

...got an up close view of the phenom?s reaction to Edmonton winning the golden ticket ? ?I think he was just really shocked."

I?m sure Connor?s going to be great there,? said Hanifin. ?He?s such a good player and hopefully he can help that organization get on their feet and I think he?ll do that for sure.?


Oh, and his (Hanifin's) agent is Bobby Orr.


http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/noah-hanifin-on-toronto-mcdavid-and-nhl-draft/
 
Nik the Trik said:
Pick said:
My apology. I missed the reference to Occam's Razor. But does your reference apply as you intended?

My proposal makes matters less complicated. Instead of discussing poor scouting, poor drafting, poor coaching, no leadership, lazy players, incompetence, the media, impatient fans, etc, etc, etc.....it proposes that these are symptoms and narrows the problem down to a culture where making money is more important than the product. This culture change started when Smythe Sr's influence was diminished by a group of crooks.

Yes, it applies. All of those things that you think are incidental are just symptoms of the central problem and your explanation doesn't address them. A primary interest in making money, and let's be fair that's the first time you described "the problem" as such, would lead to better development and drafting. Not worse. A fundamental interest in maximizing profit would see ownership want to have the best possible team, not the worst.

Ballard's primary interest wasn't, I don't think, to make as much money as possible. He just wanted to rule the Leafs like his own crazy fiefdom and could do that because making money owning the Leafs was more or less inevitable.

To lean on your answer one has to assume that there's some "culture" that matters more than simply top-down incompetence. Saying a well run company achieves good results and a poorly run company fails...there's no assumption there.

Pick said:
Anyway, how does Ballard explain the last ten years? And why has the center of the hockey universe been able to attract only one capable owner in the last 45+ years?

The quality of the market doesn't dictate the quality of the owner. A hockey team is a commodity and if you have a bad owner he can stick around forever. Look at the NBA. Most people would probably tell you the worst owner in the league(James Dolan) owns a team in the best market in the league(New York City). They'd probably only say that because, last year, the guy who was worst owner in the League(Donald Sterling) was forced to sell his team in the second best market in the league(Los Angeles).

Football? Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder. Baseball? Fred Wilpon and Frank McCourt. Hockey? Bill Wirtz ran the Blackhawks into the ground for 50 years in a terrible market. The Habs have had their stretches recently with terrible ownership.

You're more likely to have bad ownership in good markets precisely because they're good markets. Any idiot can make money owning the Leafs and as such idiots are then interested. They can then make capricious, short-sighed or self-serving decisions because, unlike in other markets, they're not fighting for survival.

If you have a bad owner who wants to hang onto a team, there's nothing the market can do. That's why the Leafs record was so bad from '67 to '92. They were owned by a bitter, petty, vindictive, racist, criminal lunatic.

Pick said:
If your rebuttal rests on Stavro, it's a lame rebuttal. Didn't Stavro decide that the greatest name in hockey and the biggest acquisition this organization would ever make was too expensive?

Stavros' personal finances collapsed around him when he owned the team. The collapse of Knob Hill Farms isn't really a reflection of him and how well he was suited to own a sports franchise. He didn't sign Gretzky because he couldn't.

Eventually, though, the team's finances stabilized and they got back on the right track. With good ownership they found good management who hired good hockey people and the team got back on track. Whether or not you think it's lame, Stavros' tenure is proof positive that with good ownership, there's no real impediment to success for the franchise.

I would have agreed with you ten years ago. But if it's true that "...with good ownership there's no real impediment to success....." then Leafs owners the last 9 seasons can't be good. What's so bad about the current owners. Where do they come short as far as ownership goes?

My proposal is easy to understand. Looking at the lack of success (compared to other teams) at both the team and personal player levels over the span of almost half a century, I suggest Leafs problems go beyond talent, coaches, GMs and scout. I suggest the problems go to  upper management and ownership who work in a culture that is not conducive to achievement.

This proposal does not warrant page after page of rebuttal unless your motives lie elsewhere. You sated that you can't tolerate bad arguments. If you believe this is a bad argument why bother to respond? What provoked you?

You're not interested in the hockey discussion at all. You just have to have the last word.

BTW, Ballard can't be blamed for the failures prior to 1971 - those were Imlach's teams.

In the early '70s we saw Gregory patiently trying to rebuild with little intervention from Ballard (Gregory stated this). The circus started with the Nielson incident (or non-incident) in the late seventies but really took off under Imlach II. That Crazy owner can only be blamed for about 10 years of losing, not 20.
 
Pick said:
I would have agreed with you ten years ago. But if it's true that "...with good ownership there's no real impediment to success....." then Leafs owners the last 9 seasons can't be good. What's so bad about the current owners. Where do they come short as far as ownership goes?

All that question does though is reveal you don't have the best grasp on the recent history of the club. The current majority owners of the team haven't owned the team for nine years. They've owned them for less than three. And in those three years they've made the playoffs once and made major management changes in the other two when expectations weren't met. With what we're seeing with the latitude Shanahan's been given and his supposed mandate/patience to conduct a proper rebuild, there's every indication that the current board of MLSE could in fact be very good ownership but good ownership won't turn around a club that's been mismanaged by OTPP, Burke and Ferguson overnight.

The OTPP's lousy record can be debtated but to me it's simple. They saw the team as a commodity solely with no personal competitive interest whatsoever. So what mattered more to them was a constant steady stream of revenue and not the peaks and valleys that a rebuild would represent.

Pick said:
My proposal is easy to understand. Looking at the lack of success (compared to other teams) at both the team and personal player levels over the span of almost half a century, I suggest Leafs problems go beyond talent, coaches, GMs and scout. I suggest the problems go to  upper management and ownership who work in a culture that is not conducive to achievement.

Except it's a flawed premise and it ends with a sentence that is essentially meaningless or, at the very least, completely vague. Ownership, especially under Ballard, made bad decisions. Full stop. It's not a "culture" issue when Ballard yanks the C off of Sittler's chest or chases Dave Keon off the team(if the "circus" started in the late 70's then what the hell went on with Keon?) after publicly criticizing him. It's "the owner is a crazy egomaniac" issue.

They've hired bad managers and didn't provide an appropriate level of oversight. The Stavros years prove there's nothing endemic to the market that breeds that incompetence.

Pick said:
If you believe this is a bad argument why bother to respond?

Because that's how bad arguments are exposed. Also, it's the off-season.

Pick said:
BTW, Ballard can't be blamed for the failures prior to 1971 - those were Imlach's teams.

Those "failures" though don't really need blame assigned. The team won the cup in '67 as a surprise and with a very old roster. Stanley, Kelly, Horton, Armstrong, Bower, Sawchuk...that team was going to regress over the next few years regardless.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Jokes aside, is that really a good enough deal to take on Bourque?

Bourque's deal is nothing. 1 year left and 2.5 million. It's saving Columbus a little bit of money in the hope they agree to take on 6/42 million of Phaneuf. Not taking back any truly ugly contracts will be, I think, a big win.

The Leafs will have some magnitude to take money back if they trade Phaneuf and/or Kessel but not an unlimited amount. Absorbing bad contracts is, in it's own way, an asset the Leafs have and not having to really do it in this deal makes it better than it looks at first glance, I think.

What do you think of this idea?

It's more "sexy" than your proposal and therefore maybe less likely to happen but I was wondering about Philly.

To Philly: Phaneuf, Kessel, Kadri

To Toronto: 8th overall, Couturier, Lecavalier, Gostisbehere/Morin

First I know you don't see multi roster player deals, but I'm more wondering from a "what are the Leaf players worth" kind of standpoint.

I know Philly doesn't really want to re-build and this gives them the chance to re-tool instead. They get much better for next season.

For Toronto Couturier hopefully eventually replaces Kadri, Gostisbehere/Morin hopefully become something in return of Phaneuf, and the 8th overall replaces Kessel.

In fact I almost wonder if the deal is too much in Philly's favour and if Toronto couldn't do better moving each of those players individually, but I'm quite in favour of making them really bad for the next 2-3 years.

Thoughts?

Edit: Looking at that I'd almost be tempted to ask for Laughton if the Leafs were taking back Lecavalier, but maybe that's the price of moving Phaneuf.....
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Thoughts?

Well, over and above everything there's absolutely no way that deal is possible from a cap standpoint. If Kadri signs for 4 per the Leafs would be trading almost 20 million dollars in salary and taking back a little over 6. That would leave Philly something like 10 million over the cap with several spots still to fill.

Also, look, I've had problems with people who said that what plagued the team last year was really "personality" or "leadership" based as opposed to just, you know, being terrible but can you really imagine any team looking at what went on with the Leafs last year and thinking "Yeah, we should import their Captain, best player who seemingly quit mid year and the guy they suspended for conduct reasons?"
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
TML fan said:
How can the Flyers take on that much salary?

Yeah fair enough.

What if Kadri is dropped and it's modified? Still not likely?

Well, the problem with that is that if you think of trades as sort of like a business ledger where you sort of have to work out an equal sense of value and a roughly equal cap figure for them to make sense Lecavalier is an interesting piece because he adds very little in terms of value but can be used to balance salaries.

Adding both Kessel and Phaneuf adds so much cap dollars that in order to make those numbers work Philly would have to add players balance it out cap wise who do have real value in which case you probably couldn't get the returns you want in terms of assets.
 
Nik the Trik said:
Chev-boyar-sky said:
TML fan said:
How can the Flyers take on that much salary?

Yeah fair enough.

What if Kadri is dropped and it's modified? Still not likely?

Well, the problem with that is that if you think of trades as sort of like a business ledger where you sort of have to work out an equal sense of value and a roughly equal cap figure for them to make sense Lecavalier is an interesting piece because he adds very little in terms of value but can be used to balance salaries.

Adding both Kessel and Phaneuf adds so much cap dollars that in order to make those numbers work Philly would have to add players balance it out cap wise who do have real value in which case you probably couldn't get the returns you want in terms of assets.

Right. So really something like Kessel for the 8th, Couturier and Lecavalier is about all that would be likely/possible...
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
Right. So really something like Kessel for the 8th, Couturier and Lecavalier is about all that would be likely/possible...

I personally think that's drastically over valuing Kessel right now. I think that of Couturier and the 8th, you'd be lucky to get one.
 
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