2015 NHL Entry Draft

[CarltonTheBear]

My brain says "that's a pretty fantastic return to move down just 3 spots". My heart says "shut up brain".

 

[herman]

I think the best way to get more first round picks is to move some roster players at the draft to teams who are a bit sour about the way their season ended. I'd like to see the Leafs not trade any of their picks simply for positioning (unless it's to get into the top 2).

Maybe something with the Jets (Reimer?) or the Wild (Kessel).

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

My brain says "that's a pretty fantastic return to move down just 3 spots". My heart says "shut up brain".

Maybe I'm missing a joke you're having at my expense, but do you think it's realistic? If not a 2nd a prospect?

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Kin]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

 

[Frank E]

I was looking at past drafts going back a ways, and I remember getting excited over guys like Stefanovich, Flaake, DiDomenico....It's really a tough thing to project how these guys are going to pan out.

2006 was a pretty solid draft for the Leafs though.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008490.html

 

[ZBBM]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Yeah, but what if you forget the 2nd?  Then might it make sense?

 

[Kin]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Yeah, but what if you forget the 2nd?  Then might it make sense?

It's still not a trade I'd make if I were Philadelphia. They're a team that has two elite looking offensive players who are 26 and 27. They've got Schenn and Couturier down the middle for youth. They've used the #11, #17 and #41 picks on defensemen in the last two drafts so...what's the upside for them? Right? I mean, this trade was pitched on Provorov/Barzal being nearly as good so...why wouldn't Philly keep two first round picks and get an "about as good prospect" and a bonus first rounder?

They're not desperate for elite talent. The Leafs are.

 

[Frank E]

1. I don't think moving down three spots will get you a first round pick and a second.

2. The Leafs need high ceiling talent so, no, I wouldn't do it anyways.

Who doesn't need high ceiling talent?

I think it's more about spliting the cards, no?

 

[Kin]

Who doesn't need high ceiling talent?

Lots of teams. All teams want more of it, sure, but what separates the Blackhawks, say, from other teams who might win the cup over the next few years won't be that the winners have elite talent and Hawks don't.

Right? Like, for a team like Pittsburgh, who's desperate for depth you're not going to trade up in the draft. Paying a premium for elite talent makes sense if you need it but if you don't, and I'd say Philly doesn't, it makes little sense. You could probably talk me into, you know, them wanting more high end pieces on the blueline but if that's the case Philly would be throwing Godfather offers at Arizona, not Toronto.

 

[ZBBM]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Yeah, but what if you forget the 2nd?  Then might it make sense?

It's still not a trade I'd make if I were Philadelphia. They're a team that has two elite looking offensive players who are 26 and 27. They've got Schenn and Couturier down the middle for youth. They've used the #11, #17 and #41 picks on defensemen in the last two drafts so...what's the upside for them? Right? I mean, this trade was pitched on Provorov/Barzal being nearly as good so...why wouldn't Philly keep two first round picks and get an "about as good prospect" and a bonus first rounder?

They're not desperate for elite talent. The Leafs are.

Good points.  Yeah, I guess it's hard to see how giving up the highest draft position we've had in years makes sense, unless someone went crazy with offerng picks.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Maybe I'm missing a joke you're having at my expense, but do you think it's realistic? If not a 2nd a prospect?

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

No joke at anybody's expense really. I think that return would be a fairly large overpayment, so value-wise it should be a no-brainer to take the deal. But deep down I really want to get the kind of talent that is only available at 4, so I'd probably stay put.

 

[Frank E]

Who doesn't need high ceiling talent?

Lots of teams. All teams want more of it, sure, but what separates the Blackhawks, say, from other teams who might win the cup over the next few years won't be that the winners have elite talent and Hawks don't.

Right? Like, for a team like Pittsburgh, who's desperate for depth you're not going to trade up in the draft. Paying a premium for elite talent makes sense if you need it but if you don't, and I'd say Philly doesn't, it makes little sense. You could probably talk me into, you know, them wanting more high end pieces on the blueline but if that's the case Philly would be throwing Godfather offers at Arizona, not Toronto.

I think I disagree to an extent.

I think that in this cap system, you need to draft that high-ceiling talent whenever possible to keep that funnel pumping out those high-ceiling guys, no matter how successful you are today.  I think that's why top ten picks don't really move around any more.

As we discussed in other threads, you need those high picks to be producing at a high rate while on the skinnier contracts to be successful...and if that's the depth you're referring to, I think the best of those guys go pretty high in the draft.

It's been Pittsburgh's problem of late, not having new high-end talent available to them to contribute on the 2nd-3rd line. 

My thinking on the "spliting the cards" idea of taking a couple of lesser picks in the first round is more or less if you don't see "your guy", and you actually see a few guys that are pretty equal, and that you'd rather try 2 kicks at the cat than one.

 

[Kin]

I think that in this cap system, you need to draft that high-ceiling talent whenever possible to keep that funnel pumping out those high-ceiling guys, no matter how successful you are today.  I think that's why top ten picks don't really move around any more.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. Top ten picks move around infrequently because they're valuable and the teams who have them are usually the teams that most need elite talent. Pittsburgh needs complimentary players, they don't need to look for a #1 center. Being as you have a much better chance of landing a complimentary player later in the draft than you do a star. Teams that need stars will value those picks higher as a result.

As we discussed in other threads, you need those high picks to be producing at a high rate while on the skinnier contracts to be successful...and if that's the depth you're referring to, I think the best of those guys go pretty high in the draft.

Nah. None of the depth guys Chicago and LA have used in those roles have come near the top of the draft.

It's been Pittsburgh's problem of late, not having new high-end talent available to them to contribute on the 2nd-3rd line. 

I'll be honest I'm not even entirely sure what your point is here. Pittsburgh's problem is that they don't have all-stars on their third line?

 

[Kin]

Maybe a better way to make my point is this.

Compare Chicago to Pittsburgh. Their high-end talent more or less cancels each other out. Chicago has Toews, Pittsburgh has Crosby. Chicago has Kane, Pittsburgh has Malkin. Hawks have Keith, Pens have Letang. Sharp and Kunitz. Crawford and Fleury.

What separates the two is the depth. It's the guys like Saad, Shaw, Hjalmarsson and the like. Guys picked outside of the first round who can contribute to the team, add important secondary scoring and not come at UFA or trade costs. The Penguins haven't drafted a forward who's scored 10 goals for them in a season since Jordan Staal.

It's those guys the Hawks have the Pens beat at. The low cost 15-20 goals a year guys. Those guys don't need to be drafted high in the first round. Saad and Shaw were a mid-second round and fifth round pick respectively. A team with elite talent needs to convert on those guys to keep fresh, not keep adding all-stars. Having as many picks at them is important for a team at that stage and prevents them from doing what Pittsburgh actually did with their 1st round pick which is trade it for a guy like Perron. They should be drafting Perrons. That's why bundling picks together to move up doesn't make sense for a team like that.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Schenn was hardly the quality of prospect that Marner/Strome/Hanifin are now.

 

[Kin]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Schenn was hardly the quality of prospect that Marner/Strome/Hanifin are now.

I think that's an almost entirely after the fact interpretation of things. There was very much a consensus top 5 in that draft class and people on this board were very excited when Schenn was chosen.

 

[freer]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Schenn was hardly the quality of prospect that Marner/Strome/Hanifin are now.

That is strong statement for three kids who never played a game of professional hockey. Just because some one ranks them 3 to 5 does not mean they are going to make it in the NHL. It is a crap shot.

 

[Frank E]

That doesn't make a lot of sense. Top ten picks move around infrequently because they're valuable and the teams who have them are usually the teams that most need elite talent. Pittsburgh needs complimentary players, they don't need to look for a #1 center. Being as you have a much better chance of landing a complimentary player later in the draft than you do a star. Teams that need stars will value those picks higher as a result.

Pittsburgh should be looking to draft a #1 centre, then have him do his apprenticeship and contribute as a great 2nd-3rd line centre.  That's the kind of complimentary player Pittsburgh should be looking for, not Mike Santorelli.

Nah. None of the depth guys Chicago and LA have used in those roles have come near the top of the draft.

Maybe, but Anaheim has Lindholm and Fowler.

I'll be honest I'm not even entirely sure what your point is here. Pittsburgh's problem is that they don't have all-stars on their third line?

One future all-star hopefully...like more Morgan Rielly's, fewer Beau Bennets.

 

[Bill_Berg]

We're talking about moving into the top 5 here, so I think it's not that crazy of a return but maybe I'm wrong.

When the Leafs moved from 7 into the top 5 to take Schenn it cost them a second and a third. Here, to move down one more spot it's a first and a second. In a draft, mind you, where it seems like people are pretty high on its overall quality.

Schenn was hardly the quality of prospect that Marner/Strome/Hanifin are now.

That is strong statement for three kids who never played a game of professional hockey. Just because some one ranks them 3 to 5 does not mean they are going to make it in the NHL. It is a crap shot.

I think he means Schenn wasn't as highly touted before being drafted as those three guys are now. So his value prior to being drafted was less than these three guys' value is now prior to being drafted.

 

[Kin]

Pittsburgh should be looking to draft a #1 centre, then have him do his apprenticeship and contribute as a great 2nd-3rd line centre.  That's the kind of complimentary player Pittsburgh should be looking for, not Mike Santorelli.

Leaving aside how incredibly unrealistic it is to expect a team to be able to have 3 #1 centers, what team out there has actually been successful doing what you suggest? Having a player good enough to be a #1 center on their 3rd line?

There's a lot of room between an elite 1st line player and Mike Santorelli. Again, guys like Saad and Toffoli and Kreider and those are guys who you can get picking where Philly will have those picks.

Maybe, but Anaheim has Lindholm and Fowler.

Neither of those are depth guys.

One future all-star hopefully...like more Morgan Rielly's, fewer Beau Bennets.

You should really tell Anaheim how useless guys picked at #19 and #28 like Getzlaf and Perry are.