2016-17 Centennial Leafs General Team Discussion
- Thread starter TBLeafer
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WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Word is Carrick is the odd man out in Vancouver and Marincin is in.
I really wonder how much they even pay attention to much of Dubas's work.
Statistically, Carrick has been really good this year, so if this isn't an injury I don't know what's going on.
How can they persevere with Polwick when it's being totally murdered every game?
I really wonder how much they even pay attention to much of Dubas's work.
Statistically, Carrick has been really good this year, so if this isn't an injury I don't know what's going on.
How can they persevere with Polwick when it's being totally murdered every game?
herman
Well-known member
Found this while perusing @Mirtle's feed, from @EvolvingWild
@DTMAboutHeart's WAR calculation visualized for the top 30 forwards.
Longer bars are better (e.g. Fewer penalties taken = longer green bar)
The model doesn't account for PK contributions yet, largely because that's not easily quantifiable with the existing data, hence someone like Bergeron only landing 45th in this model.
Our boy Naz has the biggest penalty drawing bar of the top 30
@DTMAboutHeart's WAR calculation visualized for the top 30 forwards.
Longer bars are better (e.g. Fewer penalties taken = longer green bar)
The model doesn't account for PK contributions yet, largely because that's not easily quantifiable with the existing data, hence someone like Bergeron only landing 45th in this model.
Our boy Naz has the biggest penalty drawing bar of the top 30
herman
Well-known member
You might have noticed this watching our games this year:
The Leafs try to take most of their shots from in close (between the dots to the goal line). Even shots from the point are generally directed for tips and rebounds. Defensively, we're okay with conceding shots from a distance because of our preference for larger goalies and aggressive angles, with our puck checkers more aggressive to the blue line than we were with Carlyle.
The numbers bear this out, as we have the highest differential between shot distance against and shot distance for so far this season:
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/807327149027971073
The Leafs try to take most of their shots from in close (between the dots to the goal line). Even shots from the point are generally directed for tips and rebounds. Defensively, we're okay with conceding shots from a distance because of our preference for larger goalies and aggressive angles, with our puck checkers more aggressive to the blue line than we were with Carlyle.
The numbers bear this out, as we have the highest differential between shot distance against and shot distance for so far this season:
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/807327149027971073
disco
New member
https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/814871829257027584
Before the active tank. Before Mike Babcock. Before the sell-off. Before the high-pick infusions. Before the HOPE.
This was the last time we occupied that 'mushy-middle' of the NHL. Only Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Bozak and Gardiner remain from just three years ago.
Before the active tank. Before Mike Babcock. Before the sell-off. Before the high-pick infusions. Before the HOPE.
This was the last time we occupied that 'mushy-middle' of the NHL. Only Rielly, Kadri, JVR, Bozak and Gardiner remain from just three years ago.
Highlander
Active member
Anyone know if one of the US networks will carry the Leaf-Detroit game. Otherwise will have to find a link to watch it here.
hockeyfan1
New member
Highlander said:
Yes, it will be carried by NBC at 3PM.
Also carrying the 2017 NHL Winter Classic matchup between the Blues and the Blackhawks. That one's on Jan.2 at 1PM.
Info:
http://nbcsportsgrouppressbox.com/2016/12/21/nbc-sports-presents-pair-of-nhl-outdoor-classics-to-ring-in-2017-on-jan-1-and-jan-2/
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Froese returned to the Marlies and Corrado is going with him for a 7 game/two week conditioning assignment.
Highlander
Active member
Lou is the master of this kind of thing, he seems to get away with everything ;D
herman
Well-known member
http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/3/analyzing-toronto-s-game-score-from-december
Caveat: Game Score is not quite perfect, and doesn't really account much for the defense (is downright simplistic for goaltending) beyond rewarding lower shot attempts (or higher shot differentials). Pretty much matches up with that most eyes will tell you though.
Caveat: Game Score is not quite perfect, and doesn't really account much for the defense (is downright simplistic for goaltending) beyond rewarding lower shot attempts (or higher shot differentials). Pretty much matches up with that most eyes will tell you though.
3. There is a gigantic divide between the top of the team and the bottom of them. There are 12 players above seven and then the next highest is at three. Their top three D were great, and almost their entire top nine too. They were the guys doing the damage for the Leafs in December and carrying the load. That leaves Leo Komarov, the lone top nine player that struggled this month, and then the usual suspects: the fourth line, third pair, and Connor Carrick who has done fine by shot rates, but has shown very little offensive flair lately. Some better contribution at the bottom of the lineup would go a long way.
4. The reason for the split? Pretty much all those guys at the bottom, aside from Carrick, were negative shot rate players last month, while the guys at the top, aside from Nylander, were all positive. The Leafs carry the run of play anytime their top guys are on, but get caved in when the bottom of the lineup rolls in. That's not news, it's been that way all season, it's just a shame because it doesn't have to be that way. See what Columbus has done with their fourth line for an example.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Thanks for sharing herman.
I wonder if he'll be in a spot of hot water for the following quote.
I'm fairly certain that's not something Babcock wants to be said to the media so explicitly.
I wonder if he'll be in a spot of hot water for the following quote.
I'm fairly certain that's not something Babcock wants to be said to the media so explicitly.