2016-17 Centennial Leafs General Team Discussion

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/little-luck-maple-leafs-look-like-playoff-team/

Is this too nerdy? It shouldn't be.

While the record is what teams are inevitably judged by, they are merely descriptions of what happened, and not entirely predictive (especially with the 3-point games, where luck pretty much the decider with too much power).

Filipovic notes that Toronto's record being somewhat middling, is largely the result of us losing a ton of one-goal games.

The easy narrative to spin here is that these struggles late in pressure-packed games are a side effect of how heavily they rely upon young, inexperienced players throughout their lineup, but I suspect that?s a red herring. I?m not really buying that the likes of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner need to lose a certain number of nail-biters before they finally figure out what it takes to win.

The reality is there?s a ton of noise in games decided by one goal, where a single random bounce can be the difference between winning and losing. That?s why good teams generally don?t leave the outcome open to chance -- they instead handily beat their opponents. The Leafs have shown well there, currently sitting sandwiched between the Penguins and Capitals for seventh in point percentage in games decided by two or more goals.

Instead it?s more likely Toronto?s record in one-goal games is just a blip in the radar, a string of bad luck that should even out over time. After all, the notion that the ability to keep overperforming in ?close? games is a repeatable skill has been disproven. If it were, we?d surely see the teams that have won an inordinately high number of them in the past be able to maintain that same success year over year far more frequently than we actually do.

I think everyone knows what my theory is regarding the Leafs' issues with holding leads. I just don't know how to look up the data to test my hypothesis.

 

[herman]

The Casual Fan's Guide to Advanced Stats by LeafsGeeksPodcast

As someone who is still learning all this, and originally had to piece it together from glossaries, I appreciate a piece like this, which can simplify the definitions with live examples (and hilarious analogies).

If you're not on reddit or Twitter but you have questions, you should ask here. There are a good number of posters here who can help smooth the learning curve a bit if you're so inclined. It's not like there are any games to talk about for the next little while.

 

[Highlander]

The Casual Fan's Guide to Advanced Stats by LeafsGeeksPodcast

As someone who is still learning all this, and originally had to piece it together from glossaries, I appreciate a piece like this, which can simplify the definitions with live examples (and hilarious analogies).

If you're not on reddit or Twitter but you have questions, you should ask here. There are a good number of posters here who can help smooth the learning curve a bit if you're so inclined. It's not like there are any games to talk about for the next little while.

:'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

A lot of the players have been documenting their misadventures this week via social media, some of the stuff is golden.

Matthews has been tossing some shade on Marner, Carrick and Martin for doing the couples thing.

They seem like a tight group.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I feel like herman probably posted this already but I can't seem to find it, it's a great breakdown of the system the Leafs play with a high third forward in the offensive zone.

https://theathletic.com/33278/2017/01/11/the-video-room-how-the-maple-leafs-system-allows-them-to-generate-so-many-shots/

First, no Babcock-coached team in the past decade has been outshot at even-strength over the course of a full season (as indicated by the fact their CF% is always above 50 per cent, meaning they have had a higher share of the shot attempts at even strength).

Second, this year?s Leafs squad is among the very best teams in the Corsi Era in terms of shot volume creation, ranking as the seventh best team (out of 300) since 2007.

(The six teams ahead of them are some of the top clubs league-wide during this span, including the 2014 Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings. The Bruins, Sharks and Capitals have also excelled in this department at various times.)

 

[herman]

I feel like herman probably posted this already but I can't seem to find it,

As it was just published two hours ago, I definitely did not post this exact article yet, but it touches on similar themes to what I've been observing out loud and sharing in other threads: namely the auto-pinching defenseman on the puck-side wall, fluid "Total Hockey" offense/defense, out-manning the puck. They're all concepts I've gleaned from perusing Jack Han's Twitter/videos and his blog (among various other analytics sources) and I'm so glad the Athletic is giving him a wider platform.

The key point here in this tactic is having the talent to both execute and elevate the result. Hard aggressive forechecking doesn't take much thought (but all the balls). The high forward is the one that needs to always be watching and anticipating; it helps knowing your forecheckers' tendancies and how they like to flush the puck out. Like any pack hunter does when they funnel prey into optimal retrieval zones, the forechecker just needs to take approach vectors that push the play against the pinch, or into the slot).

The talent in the high forward is critical; if he has puck handling skills above the level on the ice, he is likely to come away with the puck in a mini-powerplay situation to generate a direct chance, or direct the puck into an advantageous area of the ice (open D-man, goal-line forward).

You should also give this a listen when you have the time:
https://twitter.com/hockeypdocast/status/818914097144086528
www.twitter.com/hockeypdocast/status/818914097144086528

 

[disco]

Neat comments from Shanny here. He was on that 1993 Blues team.

Centennial Snapshot: 1993 Playoffs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqKvLGwCwqA

 

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-turning-negative-positive-defence/

I love Carrick-talk. Like the whole Toronto sports media group also loves Carrick-talk. They've had to completely rewrite stories because he always brings up a nuance you never noticed to the game (per The Athletic Leafs podcast).

 

[lamajama]

Any thoughts on if they are going to put the Cen Classic sweaters on sale...? I'd like one
but my Scottish heritage is overwhelming me as I want it customized too (another $65....)

 

[herman]

Any thoughts on if they are going to put the Cen Classic sweaters on sale...? I'd like one
but my Scottish heritage is overwhelming me as I want it customized too (another $65....)

Well...
http://www.bardown.com/auston-matthews-game-worn-centennial-classic-jersey-just-sold-for-a-crazy-amount-1.651128

 

[leafsjunkie]

Any thoughts on if they are going to put the Cen Classic sweaters on sale...? I'd like one
but my Scottish heritage is overwhelming me as I want it customized too (another $65....)

I thought I saw fans wearing them, the day of the game.... Did you check Real Sports? (I think it's called that?) At the ACC?

https://shop.realsports.ca/collections/centennial-classic

 

[lamajama]

Any thoughts on if they are going to put the Cen Classic sweaters on sale...? I'd like one
but my Scottish heritage is overwhelming me as I want it customized too (another $65....)

I thought I saw fans wearing them, the day of the game.... Did you check Real Sports? (I think it's called that?) At the ACC?

https://shop.realsports.ca/collections/centennial-classic

Yes, I have been there and they are still at reg price.....if they went on sale I'd snap one up. Just have to justify
$215 + tax customized. That's a fair bit - authentic or not - just to hang in my office....

 

[Highlander]

the nice thing about seeing a game in AZ is that you don't have to mortgage your house to be a part of what is happening. Dinner and game for about $300.00

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

the nice thing about seeing a game in AZ is that you don't have to mortgage your house to be a part of what is happening. Dinner and game for about $300.00

You're overpaying, I regularly went to Fogo De Chao followed by a Sharks game for well under $200.

 

[Highlander]

You didnt eat 300 dollars of sushi and saki for 100.  LOL

 

[louisstamos]

Any thoughts on if they are going to put the Cen Classic sweaters on sale...? I'd like one
but my Scottish heritage is overwhelming me as I want it customized too (another $65....)

My guess is the off-season.  All the old Leaf jerseys (last year or older) are on sale right now with the new jerseys being out.  I was thankful I bought a Marner one on boxing day - $160, no tax.  I think the regular price is something like $210 + tax?

But yeah - off season, or next season, the price probably comes down.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/822171988806471680

 

[herman]

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/21/my-status-with-matt-martin-it-s-complicated

Has my stance on Matt Martin changed since seeing a bit more behind the scenes? It has softened. He's a real cool dude. Stance is the same on him as a player.

Do I still hate the deal and the fact that someone in the management group insisted we needed to carry this element of on-ice justice? Yes.

 

[Highlander]

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/21/my-status-with-matt-martin-it-s-complicated

Has my stance on Matt Martin changed since seeing a bit more behind the scenes? It has softened. He's a real cool dude. Stance is the same on him as a player.

Do I still hate the deal and the fact that someone in the management group insisted we needed to carry this element of on-ice justice? Yes.

Well they need some truculence and he is way better than Freezer McClaren or Molten Orr

 

[TBLeafer]

[tweet]822523658304454660[/tweet]

Kristen Shilton ‏@kristen_shilton
babcock had this to say about matt martin today. which is what everyone says. if you're still mad about his contract you're the only one.