Nik the Trik said:
I'd say he's definitely the most likely, but it sure would be tough to justify. He's probably not even the best u-25 defenceman on his own team (Provorov).
2016-2017 NHL Thread
- Thread starter Kin
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I'd say he's definitely the most likely, but it sure would be tough to justify. He's probably not even the best u-25 defenceman on his own team (Provorov).
Coco-puffs
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Regarding Ghostbear.... I don't think he's better than Morgan Rielly and based on that, he should be in the HM list at best.
Ghostbear has made his killing on the Power-play: 22 points last year, 23 points this year. Huge minutes on it too (256, 291 min TOI the last two years). No doubt, he's very very good on the power-play and that helps him stick out from the crowd offensively- but overall, Lindholm, Trouba, Hamilton etc are better.
Comparing Even Strength numbers:
2015-2016: Ghostbear 24 pts Rielly 27 pts
2016-2017: Ghostbear 16 pts Rielly 22 pts
Ghostbear has a better CF%, but has played sheltered minutes. In terms of Dangerous Fenwick, Rielly comes out ahead for last season (50.4% vs 49.9%) despite playing against Elite competition a heck of a lot more (42% vs 20% of TOI).
I'm not saying Rielly would produce as much as Ghostbear on the PP if given the same amount of minutes. But overall, I'd say Rielly is the better defenseman. And I wouldn't put Rielly any higher than the HM list.
Ghostbear has made his killing on the Power-play: 22 points last year, 23 points this year. Huge minutes on it too (256, 291 min TOI the last two years). No doubt, he's very very good on the power-play and that helps him stick out from the crowd offensively- but overall, Lindholm, Trouba, Hamilton etc are better.
Comparing Even Strength numbers:
2015-2016: Ghostbear 24 pts Rielly 27 pts
2016-2017: Ghostbear 16 pts Rielly 22 pts
Ghostbear has a better CF%, but has played sheltered minutes. In terms of Dangerous Fenwick, Rielly comes out ahead for last season (50.4% vs 49.9%) despite playing against Elite competition a heck of a lot more (42% vs 20% of TOI).
I'm not saying Rielly would produce as much as Ghostbear on the PP if given the same amount of minutes. But overall, I'd say Rielly is the better defenseman. And I wouldn't put Rielly any higher than the HM list.
Yeah if I was going to put an offensive defenceman with 60-point upside on the list I would have went with Klingberg over Ghostbear.
Coco-puffs
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Nik the Trik said:
I have to admit I missed that he didn't play a full season that year. But I did notice his 11.5% shooting percentage that year, which is pretty darn high for a D-man. He's an Offense-only/PP specialist. He starts over 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone for a reason.
Kin
New member
Coco-puffs said:
Maybe. But at least when compared to Rielly I'd say that Rielly being used in a significantly different fashion has more to do with the needs of their respective teams than it does with their respective skillsets.
Remember, we've all seen Rielly on the PP and while he certainly wasn't a disaster out there the reason we've come to see less and less of him is because he's not effective in general on it and doesn't really excel in any particular way. Gostisbehere, on the other hand, has show real signs that he can be the sort of D-Man you run a PP through and be in the upper tier at that skill. I'm not sure Rielly has really shown any particular excellence anywhere rather than being sort of a generally good all-around type.
Because this list is at least in part potential based I think that would explain some thinking on Gostisbehere. I think it's far more likely that someone like him will, over time, become a better defender than it is a jack of all trades type will suddenly excel at something after four years in the league.
Coco-puffs
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Nik the Trik said:
1. They are the same age. I don't think age-curves get shifted based on when you start in the NHL. If anything, I would have expected improvement from yr 1 to yr 2 for an older rookie.
2. The Flyers were BAD defensively last year*. If Shayne was up to snuff defensively, I'm sure his coach would have loved to use him in more defensive situations. He was also worst on his team in terms of giving up goals, despite starting so much in the offensive zone.
3. Without a doubt Ghostbear is fantastic on the PP and Rielly is not at his level there. In the rest of his game, I'll take Rielly.
* There D pipeline looks pretty good though. Provorov being the leader of that group.
herman said:
I've become an Ekblad-cynic, but even with his down year Ghost (or whoever the mystery player ends up being) over him would be a pretty big head-scratcher.
Kin
New member
Coco-puffs said:
I'm not entirely sure what that's referring to but I disagree slightly. While I agree that you shouldn't expect a significantly different development curve for two guys based on when they started in the league I do think that the challenges and pitfalls that go into a rookie and sophomore season(getting used to the travel, schedule, lifestyle) will generally be the same for players regardless of when they start. I think this is especially significant for someone like Gostisbehere who didn't play Junior and missed his first AHL year with injury. Adapting from a 40 game college schedule is probably trickier than a 70 game Major Junior schedule.
That said, I wasn't really making a point about their development curves or respective ages. I'd just say in general it's more likely that someone, especially a younger defenseman, improves from bad to mediocre in an area than it is someone goes from good to great.
Coco-puffs said:
Yeah, my point there was more about Rielly. I don't think Rielly was especially great in the role he was put in, he was mainly there via necessity and I think we saw Babcock respond to that by changing it up in the playoffs.
Rielly's a good player and his ability to be pretty good in just about any role is valuable but I think a list like this will tend towards favouring the guys who've shown elite level skills even if other areas are lacking. If you asked me who I'd want long term I'd probably say Rielly. If you asked me who I think would help a team more next season I'd say it would largely depend on who else the team has.
Coco-puffs
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Nik the Trik said:
Did you mean less experienced defenseman? Gostisbehere is actually 1 year older than Rielly. I was mistaken in saying they were the same age (which I based on the fact they were both drafted in 2012- only Gostisbehere was in his 2nd year of eligibility).
Coco-puffs
New member
There are 12 spots left, don't they go to (not in this particular order- just taking it from the Fear the Fin list):
Connor McDavid (C, Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (C, Toronto Maple Leafs)
Nikita Kucherov (RW, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Matt Murray (G, Pittsburgh Penguins)
Mark Scheifele (C, Winnipeg Jets)
Patrik Laine (RW, Winnipeg Jets)
David Pastrnak (RW, Boston Bruins)
Johnny Gaudreau (LW, Calgary Flames)
Jack Eichel (C, Buffalo Sabres)
Leon Draisaitl (C, Edmonton Oilers)
Filip Forsberg (LW, Nashville Predators)
Zach Werenski (D, Columbus Blue Jackets)
Not sure why were are wondering who else got in ahead of Ekblad et al.
Connor McDavid (C, Edmonton Oilers)
Auston Matthews (C, Toronto Maple Leafs)
Nikita Kucherov (RW, Tampa Bay Lightning)
Matt Murray (G, Pittsburgh Penguins)
Mark Scheifele (C, Winnipeg Jets)
Patrik Laine (RW, Winnipeg Jets)
David Pastrnak (RW, Boston Bruins)
Johnny Gaudreau (LW, Calgary Flames)
Jack Eichel (C, Buffalo Sabres)
Leon Draisaitl (C, Edmonton Oilers)
Filip Forsberg (LW, Nashville Predators)
Zach Werenski (D, Columbus Blue Jackets)
Not sure why were are wondering who else got in ahead of Ekblad et al.
Kin
New member
Coco-puffs said:
No. That paragraph isn't about Gostisbehere specifically in relation to Rielly or even Gostisbehere specifically at all. I'm saying that any player, but especially a young-ish defenseman, is more likely to sand off the bigger deficiencies in their game than they are to develop excellence.
Coco-puffs
New member
Nik the Trik said:
I thought you were referring to Gostisbehere being able to improve defensively by quite a bit. Sorry for the confusion.
CarltonTheBear said:
Ah yeah. Looks like my confusion about there being a mystery player stemmed from the above post from last week where I forgot about Draisaitl. All makes sense now!