2017 Trade Deadline Watch

[louisstamos]

The above is based on the premise you are actually trying to compete for a playoff spot.  For some in Leafs nation the playoffs shouldn't even be a goal this year and getting as many future assets as possible is more important.  I personally disagree with that, but to each their own.  Of course, it all depends on the return.  If these two garner 4th round picks I don't think its worth hurting the chance of making the playoffs.  I think even just one round of playoff experience for this young group will be extremely helpful to their development.

The thing is, the goal this year was to let the kids play, see how they do, and build around that.  Barring a few boldest of the bold predictors, I don't think any of us thought that the likes of Matthews and Marner would be *this* good out of the gate at 19.  If the team is competing for a playoff spot, like Nik said in another thread, I think you just roll back the idea of trading valuable players that still have some term (Bozak, JVR).

My thing in the Armchair GM thread was, if you trade Polak and Hunwick at the deadline because you don't want lose them for absolutely nothing as UFAs (one of them bound to be replaced by Marincin), then maybe you take those same assets and bring in a guy who could be an improvement for a #5 or #6 guy.  My only thing is this isn't the year you go for broke.  The team is VERY good, and now I'm starting to feel like they could potentially even win a playoff round or two, but there's still too many holes in the lineup to be considered a true contender that you can plug at the deadline.

Basically, we're not at the point where you're trading 1st round picks and top prospects for veteran help at the deadline.  We're closer to that than I originally thought - depending on how the off-season goes, that could be as early as next year.  But for now - go with the young horses that brought you to the race in the first place, and see how they fare in a playoff battle.

 

[TBLeafer]

Do you see either going for a 2nd rounder on their own? 

For the record, yes. Both of them. Polak got two 2nd's a year ago and it's not like he's massively fallen off.

Not Polak by himself.  Spaling went in the deal too and we had to take back Torres (which we could afford). Its also a very late 2nd, nearly 3rd last summer and probably will be again next Summer.

But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

 

[Kin]

But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

I think we need to move on from the binary concept of buyers and sellers. I think smart teams should move on from contracts(and add to a prospect base) they can afford to shed regardless of where they are in the standings if they can replace them with no real downside and likewise teams near the bottom should still be looking to make good long term moves by bringing players on board if it's possible.

 

[TBLeafer]

But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

I think we need to move on from the binary concept of buyers and sellers. I think smart teams should move on from contracts(and add to a prospect base) they can afford to shed regardless of where they are in the standings if they can replace them with no real downside and likewise teams near the bottom should still be looking to make good long term moves by bringing players on board if it's possible.

I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

That's why the UFA market remains strong in the summer.

Marincin and Corrado still need to prove they're capable of Hunlak's minutes in the NHL and if that proves to be the case in the coming weeks, then I'm on board with you about Polak and Hunwick.

 

[Kin]

I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

Maybe but a team that's "comfortably" in a playoff spot is effectively a legitimate cup contender. If a team would be out of a playoff spot because of a brief stumble you really shouldn't think of them in that same sense.

I still appreciate there will be teams thinking exclusively short-term right at the top and teams at the bottom who want to blow it up but for teams in the middle, which composes the vast majority of the league, thinking in those sorts of absolutes just doesn't make sense.

 

[TBLeafer]

I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

Maybe but a team that's "comfortably" in a playoff spot is effectively a legitimate cup contender. If a team would be out of a playoff spot because of a brief stumble you really shouldn't think of them in that same sense.

I still appreciate there will be teams thinking exclusively short-term right at the top and teams at the bottom who want to blow it up but for teams in the middle, which composes the vast majority of the league, thinking in those sorts of absolutes just doesn't make sense.

That's why I said I want to see how the next few games shake out for the Leafs.  They could very well be exiting the "mushy middle".

And I generally agree that the mushy middle aren't legit contenders. Do you just consider each division leader a contender, or does it go beyond that?

 

[Kin]

That's why I said I want to see how the next few games shake out for the Leafs.  They could very well be exiting the "mushy middle".

And I generally agree that the mushy middle aren't legit contenders. Do you just consider each division leader a contender, or does it go beyond that?

Well, there are some pretty weak divisions so no. Right now none of Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington are leading their divisions but all of them are legitimately in the mix for a title. I'm having questions about NYR right now but I'd take Pittsburgh and Washington in a 7 game series over Montreal.

I don't know if there's a single solitary metric I'd use to say whether someone has separated themselves from the pack but I would say, and this is what I think about the Leafs right now, that if you really need to wait and see how a few games play out they're probably not there. The Blackhawks or Penguins could lose their next five games by a combined score of 25-0 and I think we'd all know they were still of a certain quality.

 

[TBLeafer]

Well, there are some pretty weak divisions so no. Right now none of Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington are leading their divisions but all of them are legitimately in the mix for a title. I'm having questions about NYR right now but I'd take Pittsburgh and Washington in a 7 game series over Montreal.

I don't know if there's a single solitary metric I'd use to say whether someone has separated themselves from the pack but I would say, and this is what I think about the Leafs right now, that if you really need to wait and see how a few games play out they're probably not there. The Blackhawks or Penguins could lose their next five games by a combined score of 25-0 and I think we'd all know they were still of a certain quality.

Yeah, I think that has to do with the this version of the Leafs not being time tested and battle hardened. Just too early to tell. But in a few games of the second half, if they look like are in a good position to pin down home ice advantage, rather than fight for a post-season spot, it becomes a lot less muddied, agreed?

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I think that has to do with the this version of the Leafs not being time tested and battle hardened. Just too early to tell. But in a few games of the second half, if they look like are in a good position to pin down home ice advantage, rather than fight for a post-season spot, it becomes a lot less muddied, agreed?

Well no because like I said I don't think teams should think in binary terms. There is no good reason, regardless of where the Leafs are in the standings, to not take advantage of the opportunities that expiring contracts present or to seriously flirt with losing JVR for nothing in a year.

So along those lines, even if the Leafs win their next 7 games or whatever if you still are of the opinion that trading Hunwick or Polak would seriously damage what they're capable of accomplishing I'd say you're effectively making the argument that the Leafs aren't good enough to be thinking short term.

 

[bustaheims]

As Lou said a little while ago, where they are in the standings isn't really going to have an impact on the way they operate. They have a plan, and they'll be sticking to it. So, I think we can pretty safely rule out any major additions that require paying trade deadline type prices. Polak and Hunwick are almost certainly going to be considered available - pending Rielly's health. I think they'll be looking for a quality, cheap 6/7 defenceman for cheap - like, if they move Polak for a 3rd, they try pick up a vet 6/7 for dman for a 5th. It won't have much impact on their overall ability, but it's an upgrade to future assets.

 

[TBLeafer]

Well no because like I said I don't think teams should think in binary terms. There is no good reason, regardless of where the Leafs are in the standings, to not take advantage of the opportunities that expiring contracts present or to seriously flirt with losing JVR for nothing in a year.

So along those lines, even if the Leafs win their next 7 games or whatever if you still are of the opinion that trading Hunwick or Polak would seriously damage what they're capable of accomplishing I'd say you're effectively making the argument that the Leafs aren't good enough to be thinking short term.

I gather that's because you're against the idea, in general of ever having to lose a player (via UFA) without getting some sort of asset back in return.

Problem is, Polak/Hunwick, even JVR aren't rebuilding pieces.  They're pieces for bubble/contending teams to improve either D depth or scoring help up front short term.  Just as they can help the Leafs with their playoff campaign.

Plus, we're already the youngest team in the NHL. How much younger do you want this team, this season to get?

 

[Kin]

I gather that's because you're against the idea, in general of ever having to lose a player (via UFA) without getting some sort of asset back in return.

In general, sure. If you can get a 2nd round pick for someone I think you should, if you can get what JVR would fetch and choose not to you should be locked up.

Problem is, Polak/Hunwick, even JVR aren't rebuilding pieces.  They're pieces for bubble/contending teams to improve either D depth or scoring help up front short term.  Just as they can help the Leafs with their playoff campaign.

I don't see why that constitutes a problem. They're valuable pieces, they won't be here long-term...turn 'em into something.

Plus, we're already the youngest team in the NHL. How much younger do you want this team, this season to get?

That doesn't really play into it for me. Like Busta said, you can pick up guys as old as JVR or Hunlak or even older on the cheap to fill out the roster and still add the assets they'd fetch.

I'd like to see Leipsic called up in the second half but that's not a question of making the team younger, it's because I think he's earned it and would make the team better.

 

[herman]

Nik, are you a descendant of Sisyphus?

 

[Kin]

Nik, are you a descendant of Sisyphus?

In my better days I like to think Prometheus. This is just the liver-eating part of the story.

 

[herman]

In my better days I like to think Prometheus. This is just the liver-eating part of the story.

I hear that thing grows back.

 

[TBLeafer]

In general, sure. If you can get a 2nd round pick for someone I think you should, if you can get what JVR would fetch and choose not to you should be locked up.

So what in your mind does JVR fetch?

I don't see why that constitutes a problem. They're valuable pieces, they won't be here long-term...turn 'em into something.

In an ideal world yeah, agreed.

That doesn't really play into it for me. Like Busta said, you can pick up guys as old as JVR or Hunlak or even older on the cheap to fill out the roster and still add the assets they'd fetch.

I'd like to see Leipsic called up in the second half but that's not a question of making the team younger, it's because I think he's earned it and would make the team better.

Possibly, but I'd like to see him and Kap lead the Marlies to at least a winning record before we're ready to say they are definite upgrades over any of our current top nine wingers.

 

[Kin]

So what in your mind does JVR fetch?

If you go the prospects/picks route? My guess is at least a 1st and a legitimately first rate prospect. Herman floated the Sanheim/Philly's 1st idea and I think that's about right.

Possibly, but I'd like to see him and Kap lead the Marlies to at least a winning record before we're ready to say they are definite upgrades over any of our current top nine wingers.

A) I don't necessarily see the Marlies record as something Kapanen/Leipsic have to answer for. The Marlies aren't very good, that's not on them.

B) Again, in my ideal world they're dealing JVR so there's a spot open.

 

[herman]

I can't take credit for the Sanheim/1st idea. I merely posted the link.

But that's kind of the package I prefer in light of a dearth of 1/2 RD loose enough to move.

We might need to take back some salary in a JvR-deal, as playoff pushers are generally pretty tight against the cap. Usually they sell off other picks to clear space for themselves, but I think we're actually in good position to pick up short-term dump$ for future assets to plug some of the bench holes that'll open up.

C'mon Vancouver... a couple more lucky OT wins for a deeper false sense of security...

 

[sneakyray]

I am hoping for a C upgrade to bozak.  I am wondering if Duchene is prohibitively expensive maybe nugent-hopkins could be had?  Bozak and one of polak/hunwick/corrado plus maybe some lesser prospects picks...and maybe the leafs could retain a little on bozak?

I'm not sure but i like the idea of marner feeding nugent-hopkins and nylander with one of matthews or kadri.

I also don't mind the idea of nylander taking over at C after the deadline if they can't get a C back but I'm not sure who marner would play with in that case.

 

[Highlander]

Personally I think Nylander is going to be a better winger than Centre. I could be wrong on this.
Perhaps as he put some man's muscle on this frame as he grows.