Dellow took a deep dive into the Leafs D being sheltered over the past few days and his output is really, really, good:
https://theathletic.com/468934/2018/08/15/dellow-how-mike-babcock-and-others-are-sheltering-defencemen-while-playing-them-against-top-opposition/
Main takeaways:
- Everyone says QoC doesn't matter very much, but that might be more about how we collect that data than anything else because:
- Coming onto the ice against Top 6 forwards after they've already been on the ice for 30 seconds (and the puck is going into the offensive zone) will boost your QoC metric, but mostly, they are sheltered minutes and aren't very dangerous
It is very much worth noting that OTF shifts starting against top six forwards made up a substantial portion of the ice time that players like Carrick and Borgman played against opposition top six forwards. In Carrick?s case, I have him playing 260.15 minutes against top six forwards, with the Maple Leafs generating 269 shot attempts and allowing 233 shot attempts in that time. Put another way, the Maple Leafs generated 62.0 CF/60 and allowed 53.7 CA/60. Carrick?s shifts starting on the fly against top six forwards lasted for 83.82 minutes, or just under a third of his total time on ice against top six forwards. The Maple Leafs generated 126 shot attempts and allowed just 53; 90.2 CF/60 and 37.9 CA/60.
Earlier, he had graphs that showed Carrick was among the leaders in "latest into a Top-6 shift you get thrown out there" at 30 seconds.
A commenter did the math on Carrick's results taking out this form of sheltering:
176.33 minutes, 143 shots for, 180 shots against for 48.66 CF/60 and 61.25 CA/60 in "non-OFT shifts" against top 6.
WOOF. Maybe any of us wishing for Carrick to move up the lineup should re-consider.
Of note, Polak, Borgman, and Dermott also saw this heavy form of sheltering. Borgman's numbers were worse than Carrick- but how much of that might have been due to carrying around Polak's carcass? Polak's results weren't that good, AND he was heavily sheltered. Good riddance. (So yes, we should have always been yelling for Carrick over Polak- but only on the bottom pair)
Dellow didn't provide more data on Dermott in these minutes which I would have liked to see. However, he had the strongest numbers across the board for guys who were sheltered. I'm looking forward to seeing if he can still do well in a Top-4 role and I hope he gets that chance this year.