2018 Toronto Blue Jays General Season Thread

[itsgametime]

Point is you cannot compare EE to Morales, EE is the much better player.

No, you absolutely can compare the two. The whole point of these numbers is that it lets us compare two players and judge their relative impact. The difference between Morales and Encarnacion is, according to Fangraphs, something like 13 runs or so or as BR would put it, about 1.2 wins.

Ok then we will compare the WAR numbers only and sorry I was a little sloppy with my oWAR stat earlier on.

Edwin BR WAR
2016 3.8 (26th overall in the league)
2017 2.8 (49th)
2018 0.7 (80th)

Morales
2016 1.0 (109th)
2017 -0.2 (244th)
2018 -0.6 (371th)

There's a good chance EE's WAR at seasons end is up around 2, it wont be the case for Morales,  So, no matter how you look at it the signing was a big mistake.

 

[Kin]

There's a good chance EE's WAR at seasons end is up around 2, it wont be the case for Morales,  So, no matter how you look at it the signing was a big mistake.

I think it's pretty clear that Morales isn't going to live up to whatever hopes Shapiro had for him. That said, I think you can look at it as being largely separate from the EE decision. Or, rather, signing Morales wasn't a good decision but that doesn't mean signing Encarnacion would have been a good decision either.

If EE's WAR is 2 or something this year that's still not going to represent a significant change in the team's fortunes. Neither is the difference between Morales and EE last year. A couple wins here or there isn't the difference for this team between where they are and meaningful contention and there's no real point in signing a 2 win player for 20+ million a year either.

 

[Kin]

Jays aren't even having conversations with any of these guys. I don't believe it's a choice, it's policy not to spend or take on more. Not only did we not spend we did not, have not, traded "aging assets" thus decreasing the return with everyday that passes. So which is it?

Which aging assets do you think they should have traded?

 

[cabber24]

Jays aren't even having conversations with any of these guys. I don't believe it's a choice, it's policy not to spend or take on more. Not only did we not spend we did not, have not, traded "aging assets" thus decreasing the return with everyday that passes. So which is it?

Which aging assets do you think they should have traded?

None, everyone else seems to think Estrada/Happ/Donaldson should be traded.

 

[Kin]

None, everyone else seems to think Estrada/Happ/Donaldson should be traded.

But you seem to be saying that by not trading anyone the Jays are somehow being ideologically inconsistent. I don't see how that adds up. It didn't make any sense to trade players coming off a bad year. It did make sense to play them this year in the hopes that they could build trade value. Absent those guys you're mainly dealing with guys who haven't hurt their trade value or who didn't have much to begin with.

I think it's become pretty obvious the Jays are going to tear things down but that doesn't mean they're going to do that in the middle of June while everyone's playing poorly. It's not buy low-sell low.

 

[cabber24]

None, everyone else seems to think Estrada/Happ/Donaldson should be traded.

But you seem to be saying that by not trading anyone the Jays are somehow being ideologically inconsistent. I don't see how that adds up. It didn't make any sense to trade players coming off a bad year. It did make sense to play them this year in the hopes that they could build trade value. Absent those guys you're mainly dealing with guys who haven't hurt their trade value or who didn't have much to begin with.

I think it's become pretty obvious the Jays are going to tear things down but that doesn't mean they're going to do that in the middle of June while everyone's playing poorly. It's not buy low-sell low.

Since they have no intention on a quick fix they should have traded these guys when their values were higher. That's my point, we're neither committed to being better now or gathering assets for the future. I feel we're going back to another two decades of .500 ball.

I would of thought the highest viewership and attendance would have lead to an ongoing commitment to stay a contender and reap the rewards that came with it. Now you have overvalued tickets with disgruntled season tickets holders who have no hope receiving any value for their tickets.

 

[itsgametime]

There's a good chance EE's WAR at seasons end is up around 2, it wont be the case for Morales,  So, no matter how you look at it the signing was a big mistake.

I think it's pretty clear that Morales isn't going to live up to whatever hopes Shapiro had for him. That said, I think you can look at it as being largely separate from the EE decision. Or, rather, signing Morales wasn't a good decision but that doesn't mean signing Encarnacion would have been a good decision either.

If EE's WAR is 2 or something this year that's still not going to represent a significant change in the team's fortunes. Neither is the difference between Morales and EE last year. A couple wins here or there isn't the difference for this team between where they are and meaningful contention and there's no real point in signing a 2 win player for 20+ million a year either.

Separate??  Looks like the decisions are directly related. Morales was signed immediately after EE declined their first offer

WAR is meant more to compare seasons or careers not 1/3rd of a season go and check the real numbers it's not even close.

 

[Kin]

Since they have no intention on a quick fix they should have traded these guys when their values were higher. That's my point, we're neither committed to being better now or gathering assets for the future. I feel we're going back to another two decades of .500 ball.

I think you're exaggerating the extent to which any of these guys have really hurt their value by virtue of their play this year(Happ's has probably gone up) with the possible exception of Donaldson. But even with Donaldson that sort of cuts both ways. You're the guy advocating for building around Donaldson while at the same time thinking that just by letting him play baseball he's hurt his trade value.

I mean, with Estrada, how much higher do you really think his trade value was coming off a season with a 4.98 ERA than it is now with a 5.06 ERA?

 

[cabber24]

Since they have no intention on a quick fix they should have traded these guys when their values were higher. That's my point, we're neither committed to being better now or gathering assets for the future. I feel we're going back to another two decades of .500 ball.

I think you're exaggerating the extent to which any of these guys have really hurt their value by virtue of their play this year(Happ's has probably gone up) with the possible exception of Donaldson. But even with Donaldson that sort of cuts both ways. You're the guy advocating for building around Donaldson while at the same time thinking that just by letting him play baseball he's hurt his trade value.

I mean, with Estrada, how much higher do you really think his trade value was coming off a season with a 4.98 ERA than it is now with a 5.06 ERA?

I am saying their inaction is ridiculous. Which direction do they want to go? Pick and act.

 

[sickbeast]

What doesn't really add up is that I don't think anyone right now could point to a free agent that the Jays missed out on that would have had a significant impact on where the Jays are right now. Edwin, as much as we all liked him, is currently sporting a 0.7 WAR. Arrieta is at 1.7. David Price, who many people gave Shapiro the biggest lambasting over, has consistently underperformed the guy Shapiro did sign at more than twice the price.

So when people talk about a failed opportunity to keep the team competitive via free agency...who are they referring to? What course of action could the Jays have taken that would have kept them at a reasonable payroll and had them up there with the Sox and Yankees?

The difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Jays right now isn't payroll or free agent spending, it's that the Red Sox and Yankees are coming up with really good young players and the Jays aren't.

Edwin's WAR number alone is meaningless without stripping out the defensive components (since he plays 1B and DH's), his oWAR is 5 and it was 18 last season (Morales was -8/-11).  He had plenty left in the tank but Atkins thought he could get the same production out of Morales at a reduced price but he was wrong.

In fairness, if the Jays had signed Edwin, who knows what would have happened to Smoak.  And Smoak has been quite productive, dare I say almost as good as Edwin offensively, and better defensively.

I just think a lot has gone wrong for the Jays with injuries and just bad luck.  To lose Donaldson, Stroman, Sanchez, and now Osuna for long durations (and perhaps permanently) is just too much of a blow for the team to take when they were already only going to be competing for a wild card spot if everything went right.  Everything clearly did not go right so now their only option is to rebuild.  I don't really blame management, as much as I liked AA more than I do Atkins and Shapiro.

 

[Kin]

Separate??  Looks like the decisions are directly related. Morales was signed immediately after EE declined their first offer

They're related in as much as both had to do with the Jays and their DH position but you can evaluate each separately on their own merits. Neither deal was a particularly good one for the team to sign. Especially if, as reported, Encarnacion was looking for even more money and more years from the Jays.

WAR is meant more to compare seasons or careers not 1/3rd of a season go and check the real numbers it's not even close.

I don't think there's anything less real about numbers like runs above average or WAR(and I don't agree about what they were "meant for" in such a limited sense) but even looking at traditional numbers EE looks like an older ballplayer who isn't having a great year who wouldn't be a huge difference maker.

It makes sense right now to hope that Morales' pretty good last month or so(or at least better month or so) can continue until the deadline where they can hopefully move him for a C prospect or something. After that, yeah, stop giving him at-bats and you can probably make up most of the difference between him and EE.

 

[Kin]

I am saying their inaction is ridiculous. Which direction do they want to go? Pick and act.

My guess is the direction they're going in involves letting their players try to build value so they can get dealt at the actual trade deadline. That's not so much inaction as it is trying to maximize asset value.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Vlad Guerrero out four weeks (a month or longer) due to a "pateliar tendon strain" in his left knee.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/blue-jays-prospect-vladimir-guerrero-jr-out-at-least-four-weeks-with-knee-injury/

https://theathletic.com/387462/2018/06/10/blue-jays-did-not-rush-vlad-guerrero-jr-back-into-action-after-initial-injury-gm-says-now-the-top-prospect-is-out-for-a-month-or-more

 

[itsgametime]

Separate??  Looks like the decisions are directly related. Morales was signed immediately after EE declined their first offer

They're related in as much as both had to do with the Jays and their DH position but you can evaluate each separately on their own merits. Neither deal was a particularly good one for the team to sign. Especially if, as reported, Encarnacion was looking for even more money and more years from the Jays.

WAR is meant more to compare seasons or careers not 1/3rd of a season go and check the real numbers it's not even close.

I don't think there's anything less real about numbers like runs above average or WAR(and I don't agree about what they were "meant for" in such a limited sense) but even looking at traditional numbers EE looks like an older ballplayer who isn't having a great year who wouldn't be a huge difference maker.

It makes sense right now to hope that Morales' pretty good last month or so(or at least better month or so) can continue until the deadline where they can hopefully move him for a C prospect or something. After that, yeah, stop giving him at-bats and you can probably make up most of the difference between him and EE.

All that aside, my concern is more with the message than with the actual players.  To me the message is we are trying to be competitive, the message that I want to hear is we are in this to win the WS - nothing less.  This is a big market and there's no reason why we can't compete with the other big market teams.

Don't forget this country went nuts for this team in 2015 and 2016, I want that back, we should all demand it - I refuse to buy tickets until then.

 

[hockeyfan1]

vs

Starting Pitchers:
Monday June 11  7pm
Sam Gaviglio RH (Blue Jays)  2-2  3.66 ERA vs Ryan Yarbrough (Rays) 5-2  3.90 ERA

Tuesday June 12  7pm
Jaime Garcia LH (Blue Jays) 2-4  5.57 ERA vs Ryne Stanek RH (Rays) 1-1  3.14 ERA

Wednesday June 13  7pm
J.A. Happ LH (Blue Jays)  8-3 3.71 ERA vs TBD


Source:  MLB.com

 

[itsgametime]

vs

Starting Pitchers:
Monday June 11  7pm
Sam Gaviglio RH (Blue Jays)  2-1

Couldn't even beat the lowly Rays.

 

[hockeyfan1]

vs

Starting Pitchers:
Monday June 11  7pm
Sam Gaviglio RH (Blue Jays)  2-1

Couldn't even beat the lowly Rays.

Looks like the roof fell in on Jays' starter Sam Gaviglio.  He allowed those five runs in three innings.  Too bad.  Things had been going fairly well up to now for him until this debacle tonight.  Guess it was bound to happen, as in all things Blue Jays this year. 

Tropicana Field has been unkind to the Blue Jays in their history.  Don't expect the Jays to win much out of this series.

 

[Kin]

All that aside, my concern is more with the message than with the actual players.  To me the message is we are trying to be competitive, the message that I want to hear is we are in this to win the WS - nothing less.  This is a big market and there's no reason why we can't compete with the other big market teams.

I don't really think we should be all that concerned with messaging instead of their actual actions. As someone who also wants the Blue Jays to be a World Series contender, I'd like them to look at the actually successful teams and do what they are doing. Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent.

 

[itsgametime]

All that aside, my concern is more with the message than with the actual players.  To me the message is we are trying to be competitive, the message that I want to hear is we are in this to win the WS - nothing less.  This is a big market and there's no reason why we can't compete with the other big market teams.

I don't really think we should be all that concerned with messaging instead of their actual actions. As someone who also wants the Blue Jays to be a World Series contender, I'd like them to look at the actually successful teams and do what they are doing. Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent.

Cubs
Jon Lester $155M for 6 years, 2014 WAR 1.9
Miguel Montero $28M for 2 years (traded), 2015 WAR 1.0
Zobrist $60M for 4 years 2015 WAR 1.1

Astros
Beltran $16M for 1 year, 2016 WAR (TEX 0.3, NYY 1.7)
Josh Redick $52M for 4 years, 2016 WAR 0.2
Dallas Keuchel $9M for 1, 2016 WAR 0.4

 

[itsgametime]

Cubs increased payroll by $50M
Astros by $30M