2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Highlander]

I think you have to credit Keefe in this, I can see a large uptick in both Matthews and Nylander?s defensive work lately

 

[ZBBM]

I agree with you Hobbes. I wouldnt be getting rid of Barrie unless we're out if it. I also don't see CC going anywhere. I'm wondering what ZBBM has in mind if Dubas removes the 2 mistakes in RHD

I'm equally as curious as to how ZBBM thinks CC could be "removed" that wouldn't be even more damaging to the team than keeping him. Maybe Dubas is friends with Tonya Harding? Or the Gambino family? Otherwise I'm not seeing a way of shedding his contract that doesn't involve also giving something of value away, which we really can't afford to do.

Tonya Harding/Gambino?  Are you running a fever or something?

Putting that canard aside, the basic difference I have with you and GT is that you think they are contenders, and I don't.  They need to fix the defense first and not try to half-patch around guys like Barrie and Ceci who aren't what they need.  Heck, I'd deal Muzzin before the deadline if the return was right, but that's another question.

What, please tell me, are these insurmountable Barrie(rs) to trading 94 or 83?  With very little left to pay Ceci, some playoff bound team looking for some veteran insurance on the blueline may take him for a low draft pick if we throw in a 3rd.  I'm under illusions that it will not be easy, but it's not impossible.  And plenty of teams would go for Barrie, who IMO even under Keefe has hardly set the world on fire but still has value for teams with no punch from the backend.

I've said basically all year that they should be using this season to break Sandin and Liljegren in.  Sandin they finally had no choice but to bring back up, and he looks here to stay.  Now's the time to give Liljegren experience, too.

So, assuming they intend to re-sign Muzzin, post-trades you have something like (until Rielly comes back);

Muzzin?Holl
Sandin-Dermott
Marincin-Liljegren
Gravel or other Marlie

Is that even "giving up on the season"?  I don't think so.  It all depends on the bottom pairing; if they do OK in the sheltered minutes they would get, I don't see a ton of difference, defensively, as opposed to having 83 and 94 in there.

 

[herman]

Basically people?s problems with Nylander is that he doesn?t give the appearance of effort? Even though the results demonstrate that he does everything you?d want in a top-6 offensive winger/centre hybrid?

Up until this season, Nylander has had the best shots-against to shots-for differentials of the big three forwards. Matthews took over with some significantly improved defense this season (high F3 scheme makes it a shorter track back).

Everybody on this team does fly-bys. Nylander is one of the few players on the Leafs where it is the higher percentage play most of the time.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/12/1/13786304/is-william-nylander-lazy-and-inconsistent

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I think most people's criticisms of Nylander was that he was bringing minimal results for the last year and a half.
Folks can do all the statistical deep dives they want, but when a guy is being paid on producing points and isn't doing anything particularly special in the other side of the rink, it's perfectly fair to be frustrated and critical. 

It's great for leaf fans that he's broken through this season. I find it funny with all these "Nylander is leading the league in goals from the front of the net" or whatever it was, as if it's some rebuttal of his critics, when in fact his critics have been saying that he needs to go there more in the first place, and they're being proven right.

 

[bustaheims]

Part of the problem with the criticism of Nylander?s defensive play is that a lot of what he does effectively is subtle. For instance, he does a very good job of breaking up/nullifying plays in the neutral zone. He stops a fair number of plays in transition, which isn?t as obvious to the naked eye. He struggles some in the defensive end, but part of that is also subjective views of what makes for effective defensive play. He?s never going to be a physical, shut down type, but he?s a more effective defensive player than he gets credit for.

 

[Frank E]

Part of the problem with the criticism of Nylander?s defensive play is that a lot of what he does effectively is subtle. For instance, he does a very good job of breaking up/nullifying plays in the neutral zone. He stops a fair number of plays in transition, which isn?t as obvious to the naked eye. He struggles some in the defensive end, but part of that is also subjective views of what makes for effective defensive play. He?s never going to be a physical, shut down type, but he?s a more effective defensive player than he gets credit for.

I think he could do both tactical stick check, and just remove the guy from the puck plays when the stick check isn't an option.  The latter doesn't take any real talent, just effort and willingness to get a little physical. 

I think to the more basic hockey fan, rather than an expert like me, it's his disinterest in getting a little more involved in the physical play that frustrates people...again, when he can't do one of his very neat puck takeaways. 

We all can't be expert analysts like me, but I think if he'd play the body a couple more times per game, instead of the "tactical" drive-by, he'd be lauded by the more peasant type of fan...which I'm obviously not. 

 

[ZBBM]

Part of the problem with the criticism of Nylander?s defensive play is that a lot of what he does effectively is subtle. For instance, he does a very good job of breaking up/nullifying plays in the neutral zone. He stops a fair number of plays in transition, which isn?t as obvious to the naked eye. He struggles some in the defensive end, but part of that is also subjective views of what makes for effective defensive play. He?s never going to be a physical, shut down type, but he?s a more effective defensive player than he gets credit for.

I think he could do both tactical stick check, and just remove the guy from the puck plays when the stick check isn't an option.  The latter doesn't take any real talent, just effort and willingness to get a little physical. 

I think to the more basic hockey fan, rather than an expert like me, it's his disinterest in getting a little more involved in the physical play that frustrates people...again, when he can't do one of his very neat puck takeaways. 

We all can't be expert analysts like me, but I think if he'd play the body a couple more times per game, instead of the "tactical" drive-by, he'd be lauded by the more peasant type of fan...which I'm obviously not.

I like your moxie.  You don't keep your light hidden in the proverbial barrel of monkeys.

 

[Hobbes]

...the basic difference I have with you and GT is that you think they are contenders, and I don't.  They need to fix the defense first and not try to half-patch around guys like Barrie and Ceci who aren't what they need.  Heck, I'd deal Muzzin before the deadline if the return was right, but that's another question.

Okay, on the premise that you tell the team "we're not ready, we're going to pretty much toss the rest of the season and try again next year instead" then I'm with you. I only think they're a "contender" in the sense that they should make the playoffs and might be able to win a round or even two depending on how things shake out in the division.

I'm under no illusion that they're a legitimate threat to win the Cup. One of Tampa or Washington is most likely to come out of the East and both are probably better teams than the Leafs. I think another Leafs-Bruins matchup might be a 50:50 shot. Because of the way Tampa plays, it's even conceivable that we could beat them if Freddie gets hot. I don't see us beating the Caps but I suppose anything's possible. Out of the West, the Blues continue to be scary, as are the Avs. I suppose they could pull off a miracle and win the whole thing but I wouldn't be betting the farm on it.

I don't think, however, that effectively pulling the plug on the season would send a message that the players would receive very well. I don't know where you stand on the oft-debated position that playoff experience, even when losing, has value. I tend to think it does, as does conventional wisdom, but I have no numbers to back that up so...

I don't agree with you that Marincin-Liljegren >= Barrie-Ceci but if you're basically content to toss the season then it wouldn't really matter.

On the premise that you're not trying to get back assets that have any value this year (ie a quality roster player to take the 1RD spot) then yes, I'm sure it would be easy to find a taker for Barrie. I'm sure the Bruins, Caps, Bolts, Panthers, etc would be delighted to take him off our hands at a $2.75M cap hit in exchange for a non-roster mid-level prospect or a late 2nd round pick. I don't see Ceci as having any value to a contender at his salary but you never know.

I don't see either player getting a return that's going to move the needle as far as next year goes. We *might* get a pick who might mature into something useful 3-4 years from now. Sure, if someone wants to throw something silly at us then fine, move Barrie, move Ceci, and tell the team to start booking their April tee times.

 

[Kin]

The article seemed to be saying that the criticism of Nylander was unwarranted because he's been a very effective offensive player for his whole career. It speaks about some recent changes he's made to make him even more effective this year, but like so many of the "you ought to have loved Willy all this time like I did, shame on you!" articles it doesn't address the area that was his greatest shortcoming in the past and of which a considerable number of people (including Justin Bourne) were critical of.

Instead, the author sets up his argument as "everyone was criticizing him for not going to the net and he wasn't scoring so the rabid hordes wanted to dump him" (yes, I'm pouring on the hyperbolae to over-emphasize the point) and then proceeds to largely disprove that. Trouble is, that's only valid if that initial premise is accurate and I have some trouble believing it is.

Granted, I don't get to hang out in Toronto sports bars to hear what John Doe is saying to his buddies over their beers so maybe it's me who is off base. In this day and age, when someone bases their argument on "people are saying" my immediate response new tends to be "Really? Who exactly are these people? Is there any reason to believe they exist?" It struck me as being at least in part a strawman argument; perhaps because around here he was criticized for his defensive effort, not for his lack of offensive production.

The main takeaway I had from the article was about confirmation bias and how if a player is putting pucks in the net we tend to notice the good things he does that are hard to quantify more whereas if he's in the doghouse offensively we'll notice the bad. That directly speaks to what you're saying about not being able to quantify your personal interpretation of his defensive effort but it being noticeably worse prior to the last few months where he, by no coincidence the article alleges, has also been tearing up the scoresheet.

I don't know to what extent we are all subject to this sort of bias but at least in my time as a Leafs fan, this largely tracks. There are lots of players the Leafs have had who people liked when scoring but, when not scoring, you started to hear a lot about the effort they "looked like" they were putting in. From Berezin to Sundin to Kessel, it's been a familiar pattern.

To what extent this is the issue with Nylander vs. his modern critics being entirely immune to that same sort of thing I wouldn't say for sure but I think you're very much incorrect when you say that over the last year and a half Nylander was not criticized for a lack of production(and indeed effort) in the offensive zone on this board as, indeed, subsequent posts to yours in this thread have shown.

 

[Kin]

With very little left to pay Ceci, some playoff bound team looking for some veteran insurance on the blueline may take him for a low draft pick if we throw in a 3rd.

So in this trade the Leafs lose a third round pick and gain a 5th or 6th in order to...what? Save cap money they won't need for a few months?

Seriously, why in the world would you trade Ceci for less than nothing? Because you want the Leafs to be more profitable this year?

 

[Hobbes]

The main takeaway I had from the article was about confirmation bias and how if a player is putting pucks in the net we tend to notice the good things he does that are hard to quantify more whereas if he's in the doghouse offensively we'll notice the bad. That directly speaks to what you're saying about not being able to quantify your personal interpretation of his defensive effort but it being noticeably worse prior to the last few months where he, by no coincidence the article alleges, has also been tearing up the scoresheet.

I don't know to what extent we are all subject to this sort of bias but at least in my time as a Leafs fan, this largely tracks. There are lots of players the Leafs have had who people liked when scoring but, when not scoring, you started to hear a lot about the effort they "looked like" they were putting in. From Berezin to Sundin to Kessel, it's been a familiar pattern.

To what extent this is the issue with Nylander vs. his modern critics being entirely immune to that same sort of thing I wouldn't say for sure but I think you're very much incorrect when you say that over the last year and a half Nylander was not criticized for a lack of production(and indeed effort) in the offensive zone on this board as, indeed, subsequent posts to yours in this thread have shown.

I suspect there's an element of that to it, although it might be a chicken-egg thing. I've been completely impressed with Nylander's d-zone and defensive neutral zone play ever since that game, whereas I've always been fairly impressed by his offensive zone work (even last year when he was struggling to actually put the puck in the net).

Perhaps not coincidentally, I also feel like Matthews has been generally better this year defensively, and particularly since Keefe took over.

I get the argument that "they're scoring more so you're more forgiving of their warts" and perhaps there's some truth to that. I also think there's a not-insignificant element of "you're playing more responsibly so you're getting the puck back more often and therefore able to get up to the other end and produce."

I can only think of maybe 3 or 4 Nylander defensive fly-bys since the Christmas break vs a dozen or more of them pre-break, most of which resulted in a goal against. Perhaps he's still doing lots more than that and I'm ignoring them?

Re him not being criticized by others for his lack of production...I stand corrected.

 

[ZBBM]

With very little left to pay Ceci, some playoff bound team looking for some veteran insurance on the blueline may take him for a low draft pick if we throw in a 3rd.

So in this trade the Leafs lose a third round pick and gain a 5th or 6th in order to...what? Save cap money they won't need for a few months?

Seriously, why in the world would you trade Ceci for less than nothing? Because you want the Leafs to be more profitable this year?

Uh, you missed my point about Liljegren.

 

[ZBBM]

...the basic difference I have with you and GT is that you think they are contenders, and I don't.  They need to fix the defense first and not try to half-patch around guys like Barrie and Ceci who aren't what they need.  Heck, I'd deal Muzzin before the deadline if the return was right, but that's another question.

Okay, on the premise that you tell the team "we're not ready, we're going to pretty much toss the rest of the season and try again next year instead" then I'm with you. I only think they're a "contender" in the sense that they should make the playoffs and might be able to win a round or even two depending on how things shake out in the division.

I'm under no illusion that they're a legitimate threat to win the Cup. One of Tampa or Washington is most likely to come out of the East and both are probably better teams than the Leafs. I think another Leafs-Bruins matchup might be a 50:50 shot. Because of the way Tampa plays, it's even conceivable that we could beat them if Freddie gets hot. I don't see us beating the Caps but I suppose anything's possible. Out of the West, the Blues continue to be scary, as are the Avs. I suppose they could pull off a miracle and win the whole thing but I wouldn't be betting the farm on it.

I don't think, however, that effectively pulling the plug on the season would send a message that the players would receive very well. I don't know where you stand on the oft-debated position that playoff experience, even when losing, has value. I tend to think it does, as does conventional wisdom, but I have no numbers to back that up so...

I don't agree with you that Marincin-Liljegren >= Barrie-Ceci but if you're basically content to toss the season then it wouldn't really matter.

On the premise that you're not trying to get back assets that have any value this year (ie a quality roster player to take the 1RD spot) then yes, I'm sure it would be easy to find a taker for Barrie. I'm sure the Bruins, Caps, Bolts, Panthers, etc would be delighted to take him off our hands at a $2.75M cap hit in exchange for a non-roster mid-level prospect or a late 2nd round pick. I don't see Ceci as having any value to a contender at his salary but you never know.

I don't see either player getting a return that's going to move the needle as far as next year goes. We *might* get a pick who might mature into something useful 3-4 years from now. Sure, if someone wants to throw something silly at us then fine, move Barrie, move Ceci, and tell the team to start booking their April tee times.

As I said I don't think my post-trades blueline is much of a downgrade, if any, defensively. 

 

[Arn]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1223339455597154304

#GravelWatch2020

So once again Dubas/Leafs hierarchy have come up with a nice little piece of classy work.

The leafs were one short due to Dermott?s illness and contacted the Marlies to see who might be available to fill in without taking them away from Marlies duties. Turns out Gravel has been out since November with complications from Crohn?s disease but just been cleared to return to playing. So as a bit of a ?welcome back, we?re looking out for you? move the Leafs gave him a run out to make him feel like he?s still part of the plans etc.

 

[Andy007]

With very little left to pay Ceci, some playoff bound team looking for some veteran insurance on the blueline may take him for a low draft pick if we throw in a 3rd.

So in this trade the Leafs lose a third round pick and gain a 5th or 6th in order to...what? Save cap money they won't need for a few months?

Seriously, why in the world would you trade Ceci for less than nothing? Because you want the Leafs to be more profitable this year?

Uh, you missed my point about Liljegren.

So you think the Leafs should give up a 3rd round pick to move Ceci so Liljegren can slide into his spot? Overlooking the strong possibility that Toronto could move Ceci without having to give up a decent pick, why couldn't they just put Liljegren into the lineup ahead of Ceci? Why in the world would you want to waste a 3rd rounder?

 

[Kin]

Uh, you missed my point about Liljegren.

So your point was that the Leafs would be better off with Liljegren as the #3 RHD and Gravel in the press box but no third round pick than they would with Liljegren as the #3 RHD, Ceci in the pressbox and a 3rd round pick?

Edit: Didn't see Andy's post but, you know, what he said. 

 

[bustaheims]

I'd happily move Ceci for a bag of pucks, but I'm definitely not attaching any sort of real assets to him in order to ship him out. A depth/AHL prospect or a 6th/7th round pick? Maybe. More than that, no.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Barring another trade for a replacement RHD like Larsson/Manson/Savard I'm not even convinced the Leafs would trade Ceci for a 3rd round pick. So the idea that they would be the ones to give up that pick to move him, yeah don't see it.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm all in on Liljegren replacing Ceci if Dubas wants to bench him. My suggestion was made because I don't think Dubas will do that. Sure if you can get him out and Liljegren in without giving up assets by all means.

 

[Frank E]

Is the idea to get rid of Ceci for cap space?  Because other than that, just scratch him.