2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[Bullfrog]

I don't see how retaining any salary/cap height is going to move the needle much on the value, assuming the team getting him has the cap room (and I suppose that's the real question.) After his $3M signing bonus, he's only owed $1.25M in salary. Just about any team can justify that for a player of his ability.

If we're talking about a situation where he still wants to play and allows a trade to a contender like San Jose we would absolutely need to retain salary since they can't afford a $6mil 4th liner for the same reasons we can't.

True. You're probably right that the only way he moves is going to a contender.

Man, what a crappy contract.

 

[sickbeast]

So can we fit Kapanen and Johnsson under the cap?  And if not, then who goes?  I guess we kind of need to know what Marner signs for first.

It's going to be sad to see some guys go this summer.  With the cap situation I think that's more or less inevitable.

 

[Guilt Trip]

So can we fit Kapanen and Johnsson under the cap?  And if not, then who goes?  I guess we kind of need to know what Marner signs for first.

It's going to be sad to see some guys go this summer.  With the cap situation I think that's more or less inevitable.

Depends who the Leafs see in their future. If they can dump Zaitsev or Marleau it would make it easier. If neither goes then others will. Brown, Hyman, Nylander, Kadri are all candidates that could be moved. It's going to be an interesting summer. We'll see what Dubas does. They all can't stay.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For what it's worth, these are Evolving Wild's projections for Johnsson and Kapanen's contracts (they're both very similar):

1-year deal, $1.9-2mil
2-year deal, $2.3-2.6mil
3-year deal, $2.9-3mil
4-year deal, $3.7-3.9mil

So I'm not at all surprised that Johnsson rejected that 4-year contract offer, but on a shorter term the two sides should be able to get something done.

 

[Zee]

For what it's worth, these are Evolving Wild's projections for Johnsson and Kapanen's contracts (they're both very similar):

1-year deal, $1.9-2mil
2-year deal, $2.3-2.6mil
3-year deal, $2.9-3mil
4-year deal, $3.7-3.9mil

So I'm not at all surprised that Johnsson rejected that 4-year contract offer, but on a shorter term the two sides should be able to get something done.

How good are they at projecting?  I can see Marner topping both Aho and Rantanen based on the Toronto tax.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How good are they at projecting?  I can see Marner topping both Aho and Rantanen based on the Toronto tax.

I don't think they've coded the Toronto tax into their work, but I can definitely see Rantanen deserving more than Marner based off their body of work in the past 2 seasons.

Last offseason I frequently pointed out how close actual signings were to the projections done by @Cane_Matt. For instance, on a 6-year deal his projections had Nylander signing for an AAV of... $6.95mil. Think of the time everyone could have saved if both sides just used his spreadsheet! And EW said they drew a lot of inspiration from his work (not sure if Matt is doing his projections again this year, he doesn't have anything up yet).

 

[Zee]

How good are they at projecting?  I can see Marner topping both Aho and Rantanen based on the Toronto tax.

I don't think they've coded the Toronto tax into their work, but I can definitely see Rantanen deserving more than Marner based off their body of work in the past 2 seasons.

Last offseason I frequently pointed out how close actual signings were to the projections done by @Cane_Matt. For instance, on a 6-year deal his projections had Nylander signing for an AAV of... $6.95mil. Think of the time everyone could have saved if both sides just used his spreadsheet! And EW said they drew a lot of inspiration from his work (not sure if Matt is doing his projections again this year, he doesn't have anything up yet).

They have Marner at just over 10.1 but on an 8 year deal.  I don't see that happening based on what Matthews did.  They'll be lucky to get Marner on a 5 year deal for that. Ideally you'd like it under 10 on 5 years but we'll see what happens.

 

[disco]

These were great, very entertaining with solid nuggets.
Dangle LFR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=25&v=DVXR-pYWxOo
Podcast with CJ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQn2ibTAqHU&t=6037s

 

[Guilt Trip]

These were great, very entertaining with solid nuggets.
Dangle LFR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=25&v=DVXR-pYWxOo
Podcast with CJ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQn2ibTAqHU&t=6037s

He's hilarious and sums it up for Leafs fans lol.

 

[mr grieves]

To me, the entire offseason hinges on one thing. Getting out of the Marleau contract. I mean losing Marner would be worse, but I assume they'll manage to keep him. If Marleau stays, the team doesn't improve much. If he goes, suddenly there are options available.

If he's trying to play, he's not doing it anywhere other than TOR.

If it's made clear to him, somehow, that the 2019-20 season will involve sitting in the press box or playing the fourth line, maybe he'll become open to being traded on paper and retiring?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Since he'll be the focal point of the offseason discussion, let's try and keep the Marner talk to one thread: https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=5454.0

 

[Fanatic]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

 

[Bender]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

That was really frustrating. And not only that but also animosity building between the two camps if this gets worse and everything. I mean, I know this is a Leafs homer thing since I didn't care when we sucked but it seems odd to me that your reward for drafting and developing players is having to trade them. And for stars you only get them cost controlled for 3 years.

 

[Zee]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

That was really frustrating. And not only that but also animosity building between the two camps if this gets worse and everything. I mean, I know this is a Leafs homer thing since I didn't care when we sucked but it seems odd to me that your reward for drafting and developing players is having to trade them. And for stars you only get them cost controlled for 3 years.

Toronto seems to pay higher than other markets too. Maybe that's due to the constant exposure the players get in the media and their perceived value is pumped up to higher than what it should be.  Just look at a dolt like Dreger saying the contract needs to start with $11.

 

[Bates]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

That was really frustrating. And not only that but also animosity building between the two camps if this gets worse and everything. I mean, I know this is a Leafs homer thing since I didn't care when we sucked but it seems odd to me that your reward for drafting and developing players is having to trade them. And for stars you only get them cost controlled for 3 years.

Toronto seems to pay higher than other markets too. Maybe that's due to the constant exposure the players get in the media and their perceived value is pumped up to higher than what it should be.  Just look at a dolt like Dreger saying the contract needs to start with $11.

It seems these days we have many more endorsement opportunities as well. Should that not play a factor in salary negotiations? I don't imagine anyone in Florida or AZ are getting anywhere near the dollars Marner, Matthews, and Tavares are off the ice.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

That was really frustrating. And not only that but also animosity building between the two camps if this gets worse and everything. I mean, I know this is a Leafs homer thing since I didn't care when we sucked but it seems odd to me that your reward for drafting and developing players is having to trade them. And for stars you only get them cost controlled for 3 years.

Toronto seems to pay higher than other markets too. Maybe that's due to the constant exposure the players get in the media and their perceived value is pumped up to higher than what it should be.  Just look at a dolt like Dreger saying the contract needs to start with $11.

It seems these days we have many more endorsement opportunities as well. Should that not play a factor in salary negotiations? I don't imagine anyone in Florida or AZ are getting anywhere near the dollars Marner, Matthews, and Tavares are off the ice.

The weather in AZ and the tax savings in FL are beneficial relative to Toronto. All teams have something/some things to offer to draw players, but I don't think you can use those things are trade chips for lower salary. Not to mention the NHLPA might have something to say about that since it lowers revenue coming into the league (in lieu of endorsements).

 

[cabber24]

Heartbreaking we're paying so much without a whisper of success. We're doomed before we even plateau. We better have 8 guys named Ennis next year playing on all 4 lines.

 

[Bates]

I had the radio on TSN 1050 for a bit while I was driving around earlier and all they are talking about is Mitch Marner and the Leafs. Not their talent and not what they might be able to do next year etc. Nope, all they talked about was money, cap and contract for almost an hour.

Remember when hockey was more about hockey than contracts and cap hits?

That was really frustrating. And not only that but also animosity building between the two camps if this gets worse and everything. I mean, I know this is a Leafs homer thing since I didn't care when we sucked but it seems odd to me that your reward for drafting and developing players is having to trade them. And for stars you only get them cost controlled for 3 years.

Toronto seems to pay higher than other markets too. Maybe that's due to the constant exposure the players get in the media and their perceived value is pumped up to higher than what it should be.  Just look at a dolt like Dreger saying the contract needs to start with $11.

It seems these days we have many more endorsement opportunities as well. Should that not play a factor in salary negotiations? I don't imagine anyone in Florida or AZ are getting anywhere near the dollars Marner, Matthews, and Tavares are off the ice.

The weather in AZ and the tax savings in FL are beneficial relative to Toronto. All teams have something/some things to offer to draw players, but I don't think you can use those things are trade chips for lower salary. Not to mention the NHLPA might have something to say about that since it lowers revenue coming into the league (in lieu of endorsements).

I think Florida teams use tax savings in contract negotiations regularly? Unless you believe It's just a coincidence that Tampa has a few guys signed for under market value?

 

[Bullfrog]

It seems these days we have many more endorsement opportunities as well. Should that not play a factor in salary negotiations? I don't imagine anyone in Florida or AZ are getting anywhere near the dollars Marner, Matthews, and Tavares are off the ice.

No, it shouldn't play a factor. Unless the team can guarantee endorsement deals, the player has to assume they won't get any. Teams obviously can't guarantee endorsement deals for a number of reasons. One of the primary reasons is because it would definitely be considered cap circumvention if the player took a lesser deal based on a promise of remuneration from another source.

This is the equivalent of clients asking designers to work for free or for cheap on the promise of future contracts or "exposure." Both of which are bullshit.

 

[Kin]

Toronto seems to pay higher than other markets too. Maybe that's due to the constant exposure the players get in the media and their perceived value is pumped up to higher than what it should be.  Just look at a dolt like Dreger saying the contract needs to start with $11.

I love that the go-to here is that players in Toronto are "pumped up" by the media rather than the fact that what the players on the Maple Leafs do is generating more revenue and profit for their owners than players in other markets.

There's absolutely nothing ridiculous about thinking that work that is objectively worth more, as in producing more value, should get rewarded at a higher rate. The Leafs, as an organization, signed up to the NHL's asinine idea that a player in Toronto shouldn't be paid more than a comparable player in Florida, for the Leafs to then try to use that own decision of theirs to negotiate players down is ridiculous.