2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Kin]

Other than not progressing past rd 1 (a Mikheyev shinpad away from winning the last series), what is the fireable offense here?

I think if you're going to run a team like the Leafs you have to have something concrete to point to that justifies keeping you in your position, not just the absence of reasons to fire you. If Dubas had done a tremendous job getting guys under contract or had made some stellar draft picks to supplement the core or, yes, had some real on-ice success he'd have that.

 

[herman]

He set up the Marlies to be a destination for cheap NHL depth before he was a GM.
Tavares, for all the handwringing about the cap hit and the trickledown effect it had on Matthews/Marner, was something ownership and pretty much everyone was on board with (and probably more profitable than not).
Muzzin, Brodie additions have solidified a defense corps that several other hall of fame Leafs GMs couldn?t seem to pull off.
1st in the division in forever (yeah yeah North Division sucked) putting up great defensive metrics in an offense heavy matchup. Record breaking goalie, first Leaf rocket winner ever.
Drafts under his control have fared better than the ones under Lou/Hunter.

I think most GMs in contending position get a bit more rope than 3 years. Yzerman/Sakic got quite a bit of rope amidst early disappointment. It?s not like there is a track record of unsound judgment here. The things that didn?t work were mostly sound bets that landed wrong. Sure he was gifted 3 key offensive talents, but also hamstrung with cap albatrosses, which he clawed out of losing a mid-1st rounder.

 

[ZBBM]

Here's a GM who (1) says all the right things (and his in-community accomplishments seem to be really first-rate ... no small matter), (2) has a coherent vision, and (3) has been innovative. 

But when you set herman's positives in the balance against Nik's negatives, you have a GM who ? setting aside playoff performance vs. expectations ? isn't really head-and-shoulders above his peers.  Like most GMs, he's been a mixed bag.  And in that case, you turn to his results, when they count the most.  You can forgive a lot when your team makes noise in the playoffs.

That's why it's produce in April or die for him this time around.  He's out of forgiveness rope.

 

[Kin]

He set up the Marlies to be a destination for cheap NHL depth before he was a GM.

Which is great, I'm sure, but will be largely irrelevant to people who are going to be judging him on whether or not he was able to take a NHL playoff team and make steady progress towards the goal of winning a cup.

Tavares, for all the handwringing about the cap hit and the trickledown effect it had on Matthews/Marner, was something ownership and pretty much everyone was on board with (and probably more profitable than not).

If Dubas convinced people above him that the pursuit of Tavares was a good idea and it turns out to be a mixed bag that yields little in the way of results, I don't think winning people over to it will be a feather in his cap. 

Muzzin, Brodie additions have solidified a defense corps that several other hall of fame Leafs GMs couldn?t seem to pull off.

"Look at how good a job he did in assembling the team that can't get out of the first round" will likewise be a tough sell.

first Leaf rocket winner ever.
Drafts under his control have fared better than the ones under Lou/Hunter.

No, they haven't. Drafts under Lou/Hunter yielded players like the first ever rocket winner. Drafts under Dubas have yielded very, very little in terms of contributions to winning games in the NHL.

Again, if some of Dubas' picks start making big impacts in whether or not NHL games are won or lost, that very well might be enough to save him. Getting swell write ups in prospectanalytics.com probably won't.

I think most GMs in contending position get a bit more rope than 3 years. Yzerman/Sakic got quite a bit of rope amidst early disappointment.

Neither Yzerman or Sakic were hired in big markets, with massive resources at their disposal, to take over teams that were already in the playoffs either. Dubas wasn't hired to oversee a rebuilding process. He was hired to take what the team already had and get them to be a legitimate contender. Fairly or unfairly, if there's almost nothing he can point to in terms of progress towards that goal he's going to have a lot of tough questions from the board.

 

[Bender]

Other than not progressing past rd 1 (a Mikheyev shinpad away from winning the last series), what is the fireable offense here?

I really don't have the time or energy to go into a treatise here, but it's a results oriented business and the Leafs have not had any results in the post-season under his tenure. He negotiated very poorly with Marner and I think there's a level of coddling of some of the players where sometimes you just have to be ruthless and not pretend to be players' friends and just be their boss.

 

[L K]

He set up the Marlies to be a destination for cheap NHL depth before he was a GM.
Tavares, for all the handwringing about the cap hit and the trickledown effect it had on Matthews/Marner, was something ownership and pretty much everyone was on board with (and probably more profitable than not).
Muzzin, Brodie additions have solidified a defense corps that several other hall of fame Leafs GMs couldn?t seem to pull off.
1st in the division in forever (yeah yeah North Division sucked) putting up great defensive metrics in an offense heavy matchup. Record breaking goalie, first Leaf rocket winner ever.
Drafts under his control have fared better than the ones under Lou/Hunter.

I think most GMs in contending position get a bit more rope than 3 years. Yzerman/Sakic got quite a bit of rope amidst early disappointment. It?s not like there is a track record of unsound judgment here. The things that didn?t work were mostly sound bets that landed wrong. Sure he was gifted 3 key offensive talents, but also hamstrung with cap albatrosses, which he clawed out of losing a mid-1st rounder.

Ultimately it's kind of hard to argue that the team is in a contending position when they can't get out of the 1st round.  In the regular season the team has been in the top 1/3 of the league (6th, 13th, 7th, 7th) but contenders are able to advance in the playoffs and that is the measure he's going to be evaluated on at this point.

 

[Kaberle15]

I get the pressure for results, specially in Toronto.
Last year was a fluke, this team was suppose to win 4-0, that Tavares injury was very unluck one in the opening period of the opening playoff game.

In a parallel universe the Leafs went injury free and into distance in the playoffs.

I can't blame him on a fluke injury miss fortune.

But not moving on from the 1st round again this year will cost him his job... and I do like him a lot, he is very smart and out of the box thinker, plus not a dinosaur in the league.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Ultimately, if the Leafs don't make noise in the playoffs, that falls solely on the construction of the team.
Unfortunately, Dubas is the constructed the team.

I actually think that all 3 (Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe) are in a make or break season. Keefe, perhaps, shouldn't be lumped in here, but we know that new GM's like to bring in their own staffs.

 

[bustaheims]

Ultimately, if the Leafs don't make noise in the playoffs, that falls solely on the construction of the team.
Unfortunately, Dubas is the constructed the team.

I actually think that all 3 (Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe) are in a make or break season. Keefe, perhaps, shouldn't be lumped in here, but we know that new GM's like to bring in their own staffs.

Keefe definitely gets a bit of a reprieve, as this is finally his first full training camp and full 82 game season. Unless the team really crashes and burns, I think he gets another season.

Dubas is definitely on the hot seat. The team needs to show some real progress this season. Shanny . . . I'm not sure about. If his performance is solely based on on-ice stuff, he's in a vulnerable spot - but, I suspect he'll be judged on more all encompassing factors, and the board might feels he's done well enough overall.

 

[herman]

In case you can't bear to hate-watch but still want to know what was in it (before the Twitter clips spring forth)

https://twitter.com/TLNdc/status/1442469841395281922

https://twitter.com/nickbarden/status/1443603780449312770

 

[Kin]

I really wish this show had been made about literally any other season. I have just about zero interest in reliving any of it.

 

[L K]

It's probably going to have some interesting stuff in it.  It sounds like the production on the series is pretty good, but yeah I think it's just a season where any of the positive stuff (celebrating Matthews' scoring, Marner's point pace, Campbell's win streak to start his season) are just going to fall flat when the reality is the team blew a 3-1 lead to that awful Canadiens team.

 

[Bullfrog]

I have a bit of different take on things. While I can concede that it's a results-based performance that he should be ultimately evaluated, I put more weight into the regular season than the playoffs. And the results have been very good.

What do you do with a GM whose team wins the President's Trophy three years in a row but gets bounced in the 1st round each time?

 

[Kin]

I have a bit of different take on things. While I can concede that it's a results-based performance that he should be ultimately evaluated, I put more weight into the regular season than the playoffs. And the results have been very good.

What do you do with a GM whose team wins the President's Trophy three years in a row but gets bounced in the 1st round each time?

To be clear, I'm more responding to the question of "Will Dubas be in hot water if this season doesn't see playoff success" than I am whether or not he should and I think the reality is that without winning a playoff series, there will be a great deal of pressure to make changes.

The should is a thornier question but I think where I ultimately come down on it is is that the Front Office is an area where the Leafs aren't artificially constrained by the cap so it's an area where they can't just be adequate, they need to be league leading. I appreciate that some of these standards are akin to judging a player by whether or not he's in the McDavid/Crosby/Matthews conversation but considering the Leafs' financial muscle, that's the standard they need to be setting.

 

[Bullfrog]

I agree. While I have a soft spot for Dubas, the Leafs shouldn't, and you're right about that. They can and should have a very high standard. And while they're a financial juggernaut, playoff series make lots of money and generate brand engagement.

 

[Frank E]

Dubas got his coach, and they ate Babcocks forever deal.  He kept the core he wanted without any substantial changes.  He traded his first round picks 2 years in a row, and let some pieces walk into free agency.

I really think it's playoff success or bust this season, and I don't think a fringe prospect or 2 taking a big step in the AHL or whatever is going to save him.  The only wildcard might be if the board decides to move on from Shanahan, in which case the new president might keep Dubas on on a short leash for a period of time to determine whether or not he stays...so I think one of Shanahan or Dubas is out if they don't win a round or 2.

 

[jonlleafs]

Other than not progressing past rd 1 (a Mikheyev shinpad away from winning the last series), what is the fireable offense here?

I really don't have the time or energy to go into a treatise here, but it's a results oriented business and the Leafs have not had any results in the post-season under his tenure. He negotiated very poorly with Marner and I think there's a level of coddling of some of the players where sometimes you just have to be ruthless and not pretend to be players' friends and just be their boss.

While Marner is a fantastic talent, I totally agree.  I think he's a $8-9M player.  Goal scoring should trump passing and assists.  But even still, I think Matthews' contract was also too rich for a 2nd contract.  Granted, not by much and McDavid's 2nd contract screwed the whole league over.

 

[ZBBM]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1.  Keefe is tethered to Dubas for better or worse.  The only real question is Shanahan, who presents very well in the corporate world.  But even there, Dubas was his pick ... so I would lean toward a full-on slate-wiping.

 

[Kin]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

 

[jonlleafs]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

I wish we kept Lou.  He clearly knows how to do his job.  Bringing a sad Islander's team to Cup contention and without Tavares mind you