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2021 Blue Jays General Discussion Thread

Nik said:
bustaheims said:
Bullpen definitely cost this team a playoff spot. Probably half a dozen games they could/should have won, but Dolis/Chatwood/etc., ended up blowing.
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Yeah, but I bet the Yankees/Red Sox could say the same thing about games they could/should have won.
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Yeah, I don't think you can pick individual games at all. It's a 162 game season which kind of covers a lot of those oh so close games off. They should even out.

You can pick themes though - the bullpen being one. The signing of Yates as closer maybe another (or part of the same thing) etc.

But ultimately you had a season you wouldn't have expected from a bunch of guys most people didn't think were at 91 win stage yet.

You had 2 potential MVPs in Vlad Jr and Semien who had actual historically good seasons. You've had a Cy Young performance from a (almost but not really quite) reclamation starter you got on a cheap deal.

The expected ace in Ryu actually probably underperformed as well.

But what the core of the side has done is show management that they're there or there abouts, so it's time for management to back them I think.
 
Nik said:
bustaheims said:
Bullpen definitely cost this team a playoff spot. Probably half a dozen games they could/should have won, but Dolis/Chatwood/etc., ended up blowing.
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Yeah, but I bet the Yankees/Red Sox could say the same thing about games they could/should have won.
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Sure, and that's a big part of why I don't want to single out individual games. Boston and New York didn't come in significantly below their expected W-L like the Jays did. The bullpen as a whole performed below the level of a playoff team for a big chunk of the season, and it cost the team a playoff spot.
 
bustaheims said:
Sure, and that's a big part of why I don't want to single out individual games. Boston and New York didn't come in significantly below their expected W-L like the Jays did. The bullpen as a whole performed below the level of a playoff team for a big chunk of the season, and it cost the team a playoff spot.
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Sure, but if you're one game out of a playoff spot then anything bad about your team more or less cost you a playoff spot. The Springer Injury, Ryu's bad year, not really solving things at 3rd base...

Likewise, if we look back at the actual home stretch it doesn't feel like it was their bullpen that cost them but a fairly inconsistent offense that, you know, put up 70 runs against the Orioles in 6 games and then struggled and sputtered against the Twins and Rays. To me that speaks to the wild run differential as much as a bad bullpen.
 
I concur with the suggestion at sportsnet.ca that these Jays players will have a pretty good understanding now of why those early/mid season games are pretty important to win in the AL East.
 
Vladdy Jr. won the AL Hank Aaron Award as the league's best offensive player. Nice to see him add some more hardware from an incredible season.
 
So I think it's clear right now that the Jays have 5 main issues for the off-season which I'll list in what I think are their relative importance:

1. Re-signing or replacing Semien
2. Re-signing or replacing Ray
3. Figuring out their 3B situation
4. Re-signing or replacing Matz
5. Rounding out the bullpen

There are other questions like who is the #5 SP and do they try to add a fulltime DH but I think that's the big stuff. Now, my preference for 1 and 2 would just be to re-sign Semien and Ray. 3B I feel like you can go cheap and try Espinal/Biggio for another year with the hopes that Groshans is ready soon or you can swing for the fences and try to land someone like Jose Ramirez by parting with more prospect depth. Matz I'm luke-warm on bringing back and think they could do better by trading Kirk somewhere for a #4.

Thoughts? Targets? Dream scenarios?
 
Would definitely love to hang on to Ray and Semien, but I doubt the Jays can retain both. I can see Ray sticking around, but I think Semien is heading back out west.

Scherzer would be a great add, but a pipe dream. Verlander on a short contract could also be interesting, and slightly less unrealistic - though still extremely unlikely. Bryant, Escobar, Baez, and Seager would also be high on my list for rounding out the infield. Maybe someone like Rodon or Gray to replace Matz? There's lots of middle of rotation arms out there, and the Jays need to land at least one of them.

 
bustaheims said:
Would definitely love to hang on to Ray and Semien, but I doubt the Jays can retain both. I can see Ray sticking around, but I think Semien is heading back out west.
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I'm actually cautiously optimistic about Semien. I think the crazy good free agent crop at SS means that he'll be a lot of teams 3rd or 4th choice behind guys like Seager, Correa and Story. So if he wants to get a deal done before the CBA is settled he may want to go with wherever he's the 1st choice which may be a fairly limited group of teams.

Ray I think just comes down to $$$ and who's willing to gamble on his year being more than a fluke.
 
bustaheims said:
Deebo said:
Ray wins the Cy Young, with 29/30 1st place votes.
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Well deserved. Now, the Jays need to get him signed.
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I don?t know about need. I knows it?s not one vs the other but if they?re going to go nuts on a contract I?d rather they bid it with Semien.

Don?t get me wrong I hope they get both. But I think Ray over the next 5 years is not going to be the Ray we saw last season.
 
To be honest, I don't think either guy is a "need" to be re-signed and I think in both cases you're risking paying a lot for career years. I think you need to effectively fill those gaps but I think there are interesting options out there at various price points.
 
Joe S. said:
I don?t know about need. I knows it?s not one vs the other but if they?re going to go nuts on a contract I?d rather they bid it with Semien.

Don?t get me wrong I hope they get both. But I think Ray over the next 5 years is not going to be the Ray we saw last season.
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I tend to prioritize front-on-the-rotation starters - especially for a team where offence won't be an issue, even with a downgrade from Semien to whoever (which could be somewhat mitigated with an upgrade at 3B) - and, even if Ray isn't Cy young calibre for the next 5 seasons, I'm not convinced he'll drop off enough for it to be a problem. The changes he made to his mechanics and his approach should be sustainable.

You can manage a downgrade at one position with smaller improvements at others, as there's 8 other guys in the lineup every game. Can't really do that effectively with starting pitching.
 
The rotation is technically better for having a full season of Berrios and not starting the year with Tanner Roark.  That being said we are also banking on Manoah not taking a step back from being pretty phenomenal.  There is inevitably going to be some kind of adjustment to his pitching next year. 

They don't need to sign Ray but they do need another front end of the rotation starter.
 
L K said:
The rotation is technically better for having a full season of Berrios and not starting the year with Tanner Roark.  That being said we are also banking on Manoah not taking a step back from being pretty phenomenal. 
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Maybe, but it also seems as though people are likewise writing off the possibility of Ryu coming back as a front-end guy. Berrios, Ryu and Manoah obviously wouldn't be ideal as a top 3 but I don't think it's fundamentally a tragedy either.
 
It's obviously still early in his career, but I'm getting more and more concerned that Pearson isn't cut out for a starting role at the MLB level.
 
bustaheims said:
It's obviously still early in his career, but I'm getting more and more concerned that Pearson isn't cut out for a starting role at the MLB level.
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He didn't show me anything that suggests he has the ability to transition to starter last year.  Not that he can't.  I'd give him every opportunity to show that he deserves to be a starter but I think they need to go into next year with Pearson slotted in as a multi-inning reliever next year.  I don't think you can go into the season with a flexible 5th starter.  If a spot opens up in the rotation its going to be due to injury or the season after when Ryu comes off the books.
 
Not shockingly, Ohtani is the unanimous AL MVP with Vladdy Jr. in 2nd and Semien 3rd.

Vlad got 29 of 30 2nd place votes(one, I'm suspecting from a KC writer, went to Salvador Perez). Really a historic season that just had the bad luck of running into a season basically unlike anything we've ever seen in Baseball.
 
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