2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[dappleganger]

At the rate they seem to be losing defencemen this season, I really hope they find another right handed D man that can be a difference maker on the back end.

I would trade the 2024 1st round pick + prospect to Arizona for Sean Durzi.

That's a hell of a price for a guy who's defensive play is questionable at best.

He's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.

His possession numbers are good but his xGA is high and that's with pretty comfy zone starts. His defensive metrics in LA weren't very good either (part of why they traded him for just a 2nd rounder) and going back to his junior career too his defensive game wasn't anything to write home about it. I just don't think he's going to suddenly turn that part of his game around when he turns 26 years old in October.

But even if there is a belief he could improve defensively I just don't think he's the guy to target. The Leafs likely only have the assets available in terms of picks, prospects, and cap space for one big swing trade attempt in the next year probably. So if they do take that swing on a defenceman it needs to be for a guy who can fill the biggest need, which is someone who can handle those tough defensive assignments and PK minutes. That just isn't or ever will be Durzi.

 

[Arn]

But if you could turn Robertson into a Domi upgrade at 2/3C, where you can maybe better utilise Tavares in his slightly reduced role where he gets the more offensive role against weaker opponents there could be something in that.

Different guys running both teams now but it seems like there used to be a decent amount of smoke around a potential Robertson for Scott Laughton trade. I suspect in the past the Leafs weren't adding enough to their side for Philly to pull the trigger. Maybe it's something that gets looked at again with Laughton having somewhat of a down year.

Something like that is what I?m thinking. So you?d end up with something like a 1st line, 2a/2b lines and a 4th line

Knies Matthews Marner
Bertuzzi Laughton/Tavares Nylander
McMann Tavares/Laughton Jarnkrok
Domi Kampf Holmberg/Reaves

 

[dappleganger]

He's doing SO much better than every other D on a struggling Arizona team. Could be unlocked on a team like Toronto. I'm bullish.

Signed for another year at $1.7m.

His possession numbers are good but his xGA is high and that's with pretty comfy zone starts. His defensive metrics in LA weren't very good either (part of why they traded him for just a 2nd rounder) and going back to his junior career too his defensive game wasn't anything to write home about it. I just don't think he's going to suddenly turn that part of his game around when he turns 26 years old in October.

But even if there is a belief he could improve defensively I just don't think he's the guy to target. The Leafs likely only have the assets available in terms of picks, prospects, and cap space for one big swing trade attempt in the next year probably. So if they do take that swing on a defenceman it needs to be for a guy who can fill the biggest need, which is someone who can handle those tough defensive assignments and PK minutes. That just isn't or ever will be Durzi.

Here's where Durzi's xGA/60 would stack up against the current Leafs d-core. I don't think it's that bad:

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here's where Durzi's xGA/60 would stack up against the current Leafs d-core. I don't think it's that bad:

So the numbers you shown there are for "all situations" play, which generally isn't a great way of looking at these stats especially when you're comparing other defencemen. Durzi gets a huge boost there compared to the other Leafs because he doesn't kill penalties as often (which will naturally hurt your xGA/60) and plays on the powerplay more than anyone other than Rielly (which of course boosts your xGA/60). I could tell you got your information from Moneypuck.com and I don't really understand why they default their stats to "all situations" instead of "5-on-5" which is generally speaking the default for looking at anything advanced stats-y for hockey.

Here's how they sort out using 5-on-5 xGA/60 using Naturalstattrick's data, just since I'm generally a little more comfortable with that site:

Benoit 2.24
Lagesson 2.25
Timmins 2.37
Liljegren 2.41
McCabe 2.5
Durzi 2.66
Giordano 2.67
Brodie 2.83
Rielly 3.04
Klingberg 3.49

So Durzi falls roughly middle of the pact here, but it's worth noting that most of the defence has been getting better as the season has gone on. Since January 1 Giordano, McCabe, and Lily have seen their xGA/60 at much better rates (1.95, 2.10, 2.32 respectively). So it's really just Rielly and Brodie that he's doing better than, and I think we can all agree that those two (especially together) have struggled defensively this season.

 

[Frank E]

Great stuff there C and D.

 

[dappleganger]

Here's where Durzi's xGA/60 would stack up against the current Leafs d-core. I don't think it's that bad:

So the numbers you shown there are for "all situations" play, which generally isn't a great way of looking at these stats especially when you're comparing other defencemen. Durzi gets a huge boost there compared to the other Leafs because he doesn't kill penalties as often (which will naturally hurt your xGA/60) and plays on the powerplay more than anyone other than Rielly (which of course boosts your xGA/60). I could tell you got your information from Moneypuck.com and I don't really understand why they default their stats to "all situations" instead of "5-on-5" which is generally speaking the default for looking at anything advanced stats-y for hockey.

Here's how they sort out using 5-on-5 xGA/60 using Naturalstattrick's data, just since I'm generally a little more comfortable with that site:

Benoit 2.24
Lagesson 2.25
Timmins 2.37
Liljegren 2.41
McCabe 2.5
Durzi 2.66
Giordano 2.67
Brodie 2.83
Rielly 3.04
Klingberg 3.49

There is the crux of my thinking. Benoit team worst last year on a terrible Anaheim squad at 3.54. Benoit is leading the leafs this year.

I think you could hope for a similar improvement with Durzi on the Leafs.

 

[bustaheims]

There is the crux of my thinking. Benoit team worst last year on a terrible Anaheim squad at 3.54. Benoit is leading the leafs this year.

I think you could hope for a similar improvement with Durzi on the Leafs.

The problem is that Benoit?s improvement is less from changing teams, and more from a concerted effort on his part to work on those areas of his game. The coaching staff here has helped, too. Could Durzi see improvements from the sand efforts? Maybe, but there isn?t time to make strides like that without the work Benoit put in over the summer.

If you?re looking to improve the defensive efforts this season, Durzi ain?t it. If you?re looking longer term? That really depends on if he?s properly motivated. Benoit had a tenuous NHL future pushing him. Durzi doesn?t have that.

 

[ZBBM]

Agree with Frank E ? good exchange Dapp & Carlton, reasonable arguments with data behind them.  As opposed to people like me, who just spew out their blowhole and then calculate the height of the spray. 

 

[dappleganger]

I just really like good defensemen on shitty teams. That's where I'd fish.

(As opposed to shitty defensemen on good teams. See: Barrie, Tyson)

Really jealous of Boston's trade for Hampus Lindholm.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/DaveAMcCarthy/status/1765071534857900486

Timmins ended up being out for 3 weeks with mono, which is probably a little less than I expected. Still he says he's cleared. Who knows when the Leafs officially take him off the IR but it will presumably need to be soon-ish. Maybe they try to hold off until after the trade deadline, otherwise they'll need to clear a roster spot by likely waiving someone.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/DaveAMcCarthy/status/1765071534857900486

Timmins ended up being out for 3 weeks with mono, which is probably a little less than I expected. Still he says he's cleared. Who knows when the Leafs officially take him off the IR but it will presumably need to be soon-ish. Maybe they try to hold off until after the trade deadline, otherwise they'll need to clear a roster spot by likely waiving someone.

I find that hard to believe that he's all good after only 3 weeks.  I remember when Federer had mono it pretty much screwed his entire tennis season cause he wasn't able to train regularly due to the mono.  I had it way back and I felt like shit for months.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I find that hard to believe that he's all good after only 3 weeks.  I remember when Federer had mono it pretty much screwed his entire tennis season cause he wasn't able to train regularly due to the mono.  I had it way back and I felt like shit for months.

I imagine it hits people differently. I remember when Timmins first got it I tried finding other players who had it somewhat recently and Heiskanen in Dallas and Jack Quinn both had bouts of it that kept them out of a line-up for about a month. So that's what I was expecting for Timmins. Then of course you had Liljegren who missed a couple of months with it in his draft season, and was probably effected by it for awhile longer after.

 

[cw]

I find that hard to believe that he's all good after only 3 weeks.  I remember when Federer had mono it pretty much screwed his entire tennis season cause he wasn't able to train regularly due to the mono.  I had it way back and I felt like shit for months.

I imagine it hits people differently. I remember when Timmins first got it I tried finding other players who had it somewhat recently and Heiskanen in Dallas and Jack Quinn both had bouts of it that kept them out of a line-up for about a month. So that's what I was expecting for Timmins. Then of course you had Liljegren who missed a couple of months with it in his draft season, and was probably effected by it for awhile longer after.

They'll have blood work to verify how it is doing. He'll have to have (or has already had) scans to check organs like his spleen are not still swollen. He may have had it for a while and didn't realize it until he got further run down with it - that could shorten the window from diagnosis to recovery aside from him being a young healthy man.

 

[cw]

Correct me if I'm wrong (I might have missed something):

Leafs promised Robertson as they sent him down that it was not because of his play and he would be back soon.

With Timmins allowed contact making it tough to put him on LTIR meaningfully, unless someone is waived or there is a trade, Giordano would have to be put on LTIR to bring Robertson back AND someone beyond Timmins would have to go on the IR.

Kind of makes me wonder if they know they're going to do a deal of some kind
of maybe they think they have a better chance of keeping Gregor waiving him after the deadline ...

 

[Guilt Trip]

Correct me if I'm wrong (I might have missed something):

Leafs promised Robertson as they sent him down that it was not because of his play and he would be back soon.

With Timmins allowed contact making it tough to put him on LTIR meaningfully, unless someone is waived or there is a trade, Giordano would have to be put on LTIR to bring Robertson back AND someone beyond Timmins would have to go on the IR.

Kind of makes me wonder if they know they're going to do a deal of some kind
of maybe they think they have a better chance of keeping Gregor waiving him after the deadline ...

Barring a trade/injury.....with Timmins  back on the roster(24), someone has to come off. Gio doesn't count already. If you want both Timmins and Robertson, 2 guys have to go unless it's after trade deadline when rosters expand. So after the deadline, Gio can go on LTIR to make the money work and Robertson and Timmins can be added to the roster.
I don't see Timmins coming back until after the deadline.

 

[cw]

Correct me if I'm wrong (I might have missed something):

Leafs promised Robertson as they sent him down that it was not because of his play and he would be back soon.

With Timmins allowed contact making it tough to put him on LTIR meaningfully, unless someone is waived or there is a trade, Giordano would have to be put on LTIR to bring Robertson back AND someone beyond Timmins would have to go on the IR.

Kind of makes me wonder if they know they're going to do a deal of some kind
of maybe they think they have a better chance of keeping Gregor waiving him after the deadline ...

Barring a trade/injury.....with Timmins  back on the roster(24), someone has to come off. Gio doesn't count already. If you want both Timmins and Robertson, 2 guys have to go unless it's after trade deadline when rosters expand. So after the deadline, Gio can go on LTIR to make the money work and Robertson and Timmins can be added to the roster.
I don't see Timmins coming back until after the deadline.

When (if) Giordano comes back, if no one else is injured, they have a problem.
In order to make that promise to Robertson, assuming they did, they would have to know Giordano is going to be out for a while and therefore, on LTIR. Timmins was already skating.

All that could change with a trade ..

 

[bustaheims]

When (if) Giordano comes back, if no one else is injured, they have a problem.
In order to make that promise to Robertson, assuming they did, they would have to know Giordano is going to be out for a while and therefore, on LTIR. Timmins was already skating.

All that could change with a trade ..

All they really need to do to open up the cap space is send down Gregor and Lagesson. After the deadline, there's no roster limit.

 

[Frank E]

Could they send Timmins down for some conditioning until after the deadline?

 

[bustaheims]

Could they send Timmins down for some conditioning until after the deadline?

They'd have to put him on LTIR (retroactively, of course), for him not to count against the cap and the roster limit. Players on non-LTIR conditioning loans count against the cap and roster limits.

Since he hasn't been cleared for actual games, they might be able to get away with it, but, it's definitely no guarantee.