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2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Tavares is the perfect candidate for a deferred contract (aside from not moving to a low/no income tax residence post-retirement). Just ask for what he wants in total, and set the high water mark on the cap hit AAV, and let the accountants juggle the deferral specifications to meet his needs.
 
Tavares is the perfect candidate for a deferred contract (aside from not moving to a low/no income tax residence post-retirement). Just ask for what he wants in total, and set the high water mark on the cap hit AAV, and let the accountants juggle the deferral specifications to meet his needs.
I could see him going the deferred contract route to help with some tax stuff (although the CRA picking another fight with him about this is a very real possibility) but it's not going to get us some significant discount. With the way those calculations work I think anything more than like a $500k cut on the AAV starts to really make no sense for the player.
 
I could see him going the deferred contract route to help with some tax stuff (although the CRA picking another fight with him about this is a very real possibility) but it's not going to get us some significant discount. With the way those calculations work I think anything more than like a $500k cut on the AAV starts to really make no sense for the player.

I am no accountant, but what if it's smeared out over a decade (time value might nerf it) with a riser to blunt inflation?

7M AAV x 3 with a 31M total with 10M deferred; each year is league min + signing bonus for the balance of undeferred salary
Deferred: 500k for 2 years, then 750k for 2 years, then 1M for 2 years, 1.25 for 2, 1.5 for 2 = 10M in 10 years after retirement.

That on top of whatever ambassador or coaching role he takes with the org should feel pretty comfy.
 
I am no accountant, but what if it's smeared out over a decade (time value might nerf it) with a riser to blunt inflation?

7M AAV x 3 with a 31M total with 10M deferred; each year is league min + signing bonus for the balance of undeferred salary
Deferred: 500k for 2 years, then 750k for 2 years, then 1M for 2 years, 1.25 for 2, 1.5 for 2 = 10M in 10 years after retirement.

That on top of whatever ambassador or coaching role he takes with the org should feel pretty comfy.
Well I'd say for starters it's worth noting the league doesn't seem like a particularly big fan of these deferred contracts and is probably going to remove them from the next CBA. So far none of the ones signed have really gone to do anything too crazy like a 10 year deferral but I'd imagine that's the type of structure that the league might take serious issue with. And I don't think I'm being hysterical when I say it would be very Leaf-y for the league to finally step in when we try to do something like this.

Second I just go back to something like this not really making any sense for the player. The additional money Tavares would make by deferring for this long likely pales in comparison to what it would be if he got the money up front and just invested it even somewhat smartly. That's not to say Tavares wouldn't do it, but it'd be an incredibly team-friendly move on his part.
 
An incredibly Stanley-Cup friendly move is how I’m selling it
Sure but again even with a significant deferral I don't think the cap price would really go down that much. Seth Jarvis has the biggest deferred contract so far I think. He signed a 8-year deal where over $15mil ($4.95mil year 1, $4.95m year 2, $5.77m year 7) gets deferred to the July 1st immediately after his contract expires. That's a very large chunk of money to defer, and some of it for a very long period, and it only dropped his AAV about $500k.
 
Sure but again even with a significant deferral I don't think the cap price would really go down that much. Seth Jarvis has the biggest deferred contract so far I think. He signed a 8-year deal where over $15mil ($4.95mil year 1, $4.95m year 2, $5.77m year 7) gets deferred to the July 1st immediately after his contract expires. That's a very large chunk of money to defer, and some of it for a very long period, and it only dropped his AAV about $500k.

ah, there are some interest rate shenanigans to contend with.

I think Jarvis' cap hit reduction being so low is a function of how far out the deferrals take place (year 9), so the cap value applied to the calculation is a much smaller fraction. On a shorter term deferral, the cap value shaved off probably retains more oomph to shave off AAV, but it definitely isn't as simple as I originally thought (especially if smeared out over a longer deferral term which would greatly reduce the calculated cap value).
 
That's why it needs to be Tavares who is proactive about this. Otherwise I agree, they'll offer him top dollar. He could still take less if winning is more important than earning a few extra dollars. Marner's getting a new deal, Knies will need a new deal, those extra cap dollars will get used up in a hurry and we'll still be stuck with a bottom-6 who can't put the puck in the ocean.

Of course, win the cup this year and it all goes away.
Imagine going to your boss to negotiate a lower salary for yourself. Ridiculous.
 
Imagine going to your boss to negotiate a lower salary for yourself. Ridiculous.

Well it's not like it hasn't happened before:

https://sports.yahoo.com/connor-mcdavid-felt-guilty-took-less-massive-new-oilers-contract-201252512.html said:
The money was obviously flexible. TSN’s Bob McKenzie heard that McDavid wasn’t comfortable with the initial salary cap hit, which spawned a cottage industry of stories about how the percentage of the cap he’d devour would adversely impact the ability of the Oilers to build a winning team.

So apparently, McDavid agreed to take about $750,000 less annually. Which isn’t a lot, but is the kind of wiggle room you need to build a championship or keep it together.

McDavid has 2 more playoff runs before needing to decide if giving up $6mil was worth it.
 
Well it's not like it hasn't happened before:



McDavid has 2 more playoff runs before needing to decide if giving up $6mil was worth it.
For some people.... there are somethings worth more than money.

Especially when you end up making 9 figure amounts. Shaving some six figures to get other things that are equally or more important to you shows depth and enlightenment to me...... not ridiculousness.

And the product of those that do things for love (as opposed to only money) is above and beyond.
 
Well it's not like it hasn't happened before:



McDavid has 2 more playoff runs before needing to decide if giving up $6mil was worth it.
Sure. But judging someone because they don't is the ridiculous part.

And I'd argue that for what Tavares brings, 7m would be him taking less to stay with the Leafs.
 
Yes, because the average job is exactly like being an NHL player in a salary-capped world. Exactly! LOL.
I get what you're saying. We'd all love to be playing hockey for money. And most of us would do if for 100k a year. But regardless of the job, who am I to judge their wants and needs?

Anyways, 7m for Tavares is a discount in my books. Can the Leafs afford that 7m? Yet to be determined.
 
Tavares isn't really declining, yet. And since his game totally doesn't really rely on speed, he may decline less than others his age. A 3-year extension at 7 seems reasonable, though of course if John wants to do the team a favor....
Too much for me. Just my opinion. I've liked his game this year albeit in a contract year but he's been very quiet since the beginning of the year and benefits from playing with 88 and the PP. Would be great to have him centering the 3rd line but not at 7 million. Problem though is what else is out there. Nothing really as far as free agents.
 
We can't evaluate contracts on raw numbers as the cap ceiling shifts year to year (most of the time). 7M against a 95.5M cap (that is set to rise again steeply over 100M right after) is 7.33% of that cap ceiling and equivalent to a 6.45M AAV in today's 88M cap. Tavares signed 11M (13.8% of cap) for 7 years, so 7M for 3 is basically a 50% cut.

For reference, when Kadri signed his extension with the Leafs for 2016, it was 4.5M and around 6%, which quickly became a steal, especially when he started to play 3rd line centre.

Tavares is still generating better than 2C levels and is already slow. When Nylander's pace starts to leave him too far behind, Tavares is still very well suited to supporting and capitalizing on forechecking wingers of lesser skill (Jarnkrok style). And Nylander can still carry a 2nd line with a defensive centre with some wheels, who would be cheaper than trying to get a full two-way C.

Knies-Matthews-Marner (probably)
McMann-Minten(?) or 5M 2C-Nylander (5M 2C like Joel Eriksson-Ek would be what I'm looking for)
Grebyonkin-Tavares-Utility Checking Winger (Kirill Marchenko style)
Lorentz-Kampf-Whoever
 
Grebyonkin-Tavares-Utility Checking Winger (Kirill Marchenko style)
Paying Tavares for 3-years because he's producing like a 2C (or better) right now but then immediately dropping him to 3C with worse line mates which will significantly nerf a good chunk of his 5-on-5 offence is what I'm worried about though. If you're not getting a really big discount from him (I think it's fair to say $7mil considering everything is big but maybe not really big) I'm hesitant to offer him much if any term because his offence is very much role-dependent and that role could be changing at any point now.
 
Paying Tavares for 3-years because he's producing like a 2C (or better) right now but then immediately dropping him to 3C with worse line mates which will significantly nerf a good chunk of his 5-on-5 offence is what I'm worried about though. If you're not getting a really big discount from him (I think it's fair to say $7mil considering everything is big but maybe not really big) I'm hesitant to offer him much if any term because his offence is very much role-dependent and that role could be changing at any point now.

In my projection, he stays 2C until something necessitates the change: acquiring a better 2C or he really starts to hold Nylander back. Even if he dips down to 60pts, that's decent production.

In the 3C role, I'm thinking of all those forecheck cycles where the puck is freed into the slot, but it's a Kerfoot or Holmberg taking the shot. Tavares cleans those up much more readily. It's high in the OZ on entry where he's the greatest liability. He just needs someone else to carry the puck in, and he can be F2/3 on the forecheck
 
In the 3C role, I'm thinking of all those forecheck cycles where the puck is freed into the slot, but it's a Kerfoot or Holmberg taking the shot. Tavares cleans those up much more readily. It's high in the OZ on entry where he's the greatest liability. He just needs someone else to carry the puck in, and he can be F2/3 on the forecheck
Don't get me wrong, I think Tavares would make a fantastic 3C if the Leafs can find another C who would mesh well with Nylander. Again it's just that his offence will undoubtedly suffer and that's what players get paid for.

3 years is a long enough time and we just don't know what Tavares' role will be for any of that. We don't even know what his role will be post-deadline now. It could be 2C, he could move to the wing, he could move down to 3C. So unless he's looking at like $6mil for 3 years I'd be pushing harder for 1-year deals until his retirement. Even if it means paying him a little more than $7mil next season. It's also important to note that Tavares will be eligible for 35+ year old performance bonuses not this offseason but the one after that. The team could/should be taking advantage of that with him as soon as possible.
 
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