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2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

Magic numbers for the Leafs to officially eliminate the possibility of teams from passing them (not including FLA & TB, because they both basically require clean sweeps at this point):

OTT - 15
MON - 11
NYI - 10
CBJ - 8
NYR - 6
DET - 6 (5 if the Leafs get one more RW or DET goes to OT)
BOS, PIT, PHI & BUF already eliminated.

Earliest the Leafs can potentially clinch a playoff spot if everything goes their way is Sunday.
 
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I'm sure that if the Leafs weren't in roster/cap constraints that they would magically be able to activate Patches, but at the same time, I think the number of good games he played this year is matched by games where he was ineffective. He did have some good efforts on L2 with Tavares/Nylander but I'm not banking on him being that guy when his body couldn't hold up to that style of play.
L2 is probably where he played his best hockey. He seemed to like playing with Tavares.

They're kind of in a odd place with the bottom 6:
Pacioretty on L2 - he might be good there and he might not. McMann could play L3 if Pacioretty could play L2. But we don't know.
Jarnkrok from 2 years ago should be a no brainer that he could help. But the guy coming back from injury is struggling and slower. Will he recover his speed?
Laughton - they paid a hefty price to get him and he's just not clicking. Will he? When?
Domi - which player are they going to get? the one from the first half?
Kampf - he should be able to nail down the 4th line center role and PK ... but he hasn't.
Holmberg? He hasn't figured it out yet

We know what we're getting from Robertson and Lorentz.

You look at the Cup winners. I don't recall them with a dog's breakfast like the above in their bottom 6

Morgan Rielly usually steps up in the playoffs but he hasn't been able to do that during the season.

They seem to have a bunch of pieces but they're not fitting together or are unable. They look better on paper than they do on the ice. I do not recall so many questions before the playoffs.
 
Magic numbers for the Leafs to officially eliminate the possibility of teams from passing them (not including FLA & TB, because they both basically require clean sweeps at this point):

OTT - 15
MON - 11
CBJ - 8
NYI - 8
NYR - 6
DET - 6 (5 if the Leafs get one more RW or DET goes to OT)
BOS, PIT, PHI & BUF already eliminated.

Earliest the Leafs can potentially clinch a playoff spot if everything goes their way is Sunday.
 
You look at the Cup winners. I don't recall them with a dog's breakfast like the above in their bottom 6

L3 is on the edge of being 'ok' to being a liability. And against a team like Panthers (and even Tampa) both L3 and L4 will be exposed.

It seems too late in the season to do this, but i don't know why the 4 elite weren't distributed amongst three lines for an extended period.

Dropping Marner to L3 so that you have:

Holmberg - Laughton - Marner

as a shutdown line with the potential to even get an occasional goal would move it away from the Liability zone.

Domi and Knies play w Matthews on L1. It would have more energy and excitement than even L1 now.

And would make it harder for opposition to shut down all three Leaf lines. This has always been a playoff Achilles heal of this roster.
 
L3 is on the edge of being 'ok' to being a liability. And against a team like Panthers (and even Tampa) both L3 and L4 will be exposed.

It seems too late in the season to do this, but i don't know why the 4 elite weren't distributed amongst three lines for an extended period.

Dropping Marner to L3 so that you have:

Holmberg - Laughton - Marner

as a shutdown line with the potential to even get an occasional goal would move it away from the Liability zone.

Domi and Knies play w Matthews on L1. It would have more energy and excitement than even L1 now.

And would make it harder for opposition to shut down all three Leaf lines. This has always been a playoff Achilles heal of this roster.
I completely understand the desire to spread out your talent, but I maintain, spreading out your wealth does not generally lead to more success. The excuse that teams are able to smother the top players because the 3rd line is so weak isn't a statement of not spreading out the wealth. It's a statement that the top players are unable to push through said smothering. It's also a statement that the bottom 6 are simply not producing at levels needed. All teams need Chris Paul's and Gary Valk's to step up at big moments.

The Oiler's line up in the Stanley Cup Finals last year were definitely not spread out. Definitely not to the point that a player like Marner was playing on the 3rd line. But, their top players still found a way to produce despite receiving all the attention, and their role players found a way to produce when needed despite not typically being producers.

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
McLeod - Draisaitl - Holloway
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Foegele - Ryan - Perry
 
I completely understand the desire to spread out your talent, but I maintain, spreading out your wealth does not generally lead to more success. The excuse that teams are able to smother the top players because the 3rd line is so weak isn't a statement of not spreading out the wealth. It's a statement that the top players are unable to push through said smothering. It's also a statement that the bottom 6 are simply not producing at levels needed. All teams need Chris Paul's and Gary Valk's to step up at big moments.

The Oiler's line up in the Stanley Cup Finals last year were definitely not spread out. Definitely not to the point that a player like Marner was playing on the 3rd line. But, their top players still found a way to produce despite receiving all the attention, and their role players found a way to produce when needed despite not typically being producers.

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
McLeod - Draisaitl - Holloway
Janmark - Henrique - Brown
Foegele - Ryan - Perry
Draisaitl and McDavid are assassins, unlike Marner and Matthews.

I think we need 3 good lines to be competitive. I have been advocating for a shutdown line that includes Marner all season. Let's not get hung-up on 1,2, and 3. How about just 3 good lines? Matthews, Marner, and Tavares/Nylander spread out is the way to go. They will all get points regardless of where they play and will still play together on the PP.
 
What I'm about to kick around is not an original thought. Others have raised something like it here.
I looked at it a bit today.
This season, Matthews and Knies play a minute and a half shorthanded per game. Marner 2 mins.
I don't get it. What is the point?
I can see using Marner to score shorthanded when they're down but Matthews only has 2 shorthanded points as a Leaf ever. Knies 1.
Laughton is a good PKer, Did it for years as the #1 Pker in Philly. Kampf isn't terrible at it. Neither is Lorentz. Jarnkrok was good at it for years - including shorthanded pts - if he can get back into game shape .... All win 48% or better of their faceoffs.
Matthews, Marner & Knies getting 1.5 mins/game more at ES or PP would help team scoring.

Giving the other PKers more ice time on the PK will help them improve at that.
I don't get deploying Matthews, Knies & Marner 1.5 mins/game on the PK.

If they're down a goal, Nylander or Robertson could be more effective trying to tie it up on the PK.
Something like that seems to be a better use of the bottom six and helps over all team offense.
I don't understand Berube's thinking on this.
 
Magic numbers for the Leafs to officially eliminate the possibility of teams from passing them (not including FLA & TB, because they both basically require clean sweeps at this point):

OTT - 14
MON - 7
CBJ - 7
NYI - 7
NYR - 5
DET - 2
BOS, PIT, PHI & BUF already eliminated.

Earliest the Leafs can potentially clinch a playoff spot if everything goes their way is Sunday.
 
Draisaitl and McDavid are assassins, unlike Marner and Matthews.

I think we need 3 good lines to be competitive. I have been advocating for a shutdown line that includes Marner all season. Let's not get hung-up on 1,2, and 3. How about just 3 good lines? Matthews, Marner, and Tavares/Nylander spread out is the way to go. They will all get points regardless of where they play and will still play together on the PP.
Can't have it both ways. Can't say they'll all get points regardless of where they play, but also say we're moving them around because they aren't getting points in the playoffs. They are legit playing on stronger lines now and not getting points.

Personally, as a coach, If I see Marner, Matthews and Nylander all spread out, I'm laughing all the way to the next round.
 
Can't have it both ways. Can't say they'll all get points regardless of where they play, but also say we're moving them around because they aren't getting points in the playoffs. They are legit playing on stronger lines now and not getting points.

Personally, as a coach, If I see Marner, Matthews and Nylander all spread out, I'm laughing all the way to the next round.
8th time the charm, I guess.
 
What I'm about to kick around is not an original thought. Others have raised something like it here.
I looked at it a bit today.
This season, Matthews and Knies play a minute and a half shorthanded per game. Marner 2 mins.
I don't get it. What is the point?
I can see using Marner to score shorthanded when they're down but Matthews only has 2 shorthanded points as a Leaf ever. Knies 1.
Laughton is a good PKer, Did it for years as the #1 Pker in Philly. Kampf isn't terrible at it. Neither is Lorentz. Jarnkrok was good at it for years - including shorthanded pts - if he can get back into game shape .... All win 48% or better of their faceoffs.
Matthews, Marner & Knies getting 1.5 mins/game more at ES or PP would help team scoring.

Giving the other PKers more ice time on the PK will help them improve at that.
I don't get deploying Matthews, Knies & Marner 1.5 mins/game on the PK.

If they're down a goal, Nylander or Robertson could be more effective trying to tie it up on the PK.
Something like that seems to be a better use of the bottom six and helps over all team offense.
I don't understand Berube's thinking on this.
We've had 10 games now since the trade deadline. In that time span the Leaks PK is operating at just 70.4%, which is 28th in the league.

TOI/GPCA/60GA/60 (GA)xGA/60
Kampf1:43119.010.00 (0)9.81
Marner1:37102.8622.04 (6)6.43
Matthews1:25121.4016.74 (4)7.58
Laughton1:2094.2617.96 (4)6.92
Knies1:18128.254.58 (1)10.52
Jarnkrok1:0685.537.78 (1)2.97
Lorentz0:5092.670.00 (0)4.58

Some scattered thoughts

Zero goals against for Kampf in the 7 games he's played there. Not going to give him a "greatest penalty killer on the planet" award for that since goals against is very obviously not an individual statistic but those results should hopefully end this nonsenses of him being a healthy scratch at times.

Marner at 6 goals against is obviously what stands out the most here. That's a lot. The only other forward to be on the ice for more since the deadline is Isac Lundestrom of the Ducks with 8. Similar to what I said about Kampf I'm sure this isn't entirely on Marner especially with his other numbers being low but possibly something to look at if the videos show there's any repeating issues.

Knies' numbers here are just weird. Only been caught on the ice for 1 goal against but seemingly bleeds chances considerably more than anyone else. Even more weird that he's on the ice mostly with guys like Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Lorentz.

One thing that's worth noting about Knies, Jarnkrok, and Lorentz's low goals against numbers is that they spend most of their time out there against a teams 2nd PP unit or at the tail end of a teams 1st PP unit shift. Considering I would imagine most teams are like the Leafs where they load up their top unit and don't see a lot of scoring from PP2 that obviously helps those guys' on-ice numbers a lot. Small note there Lorentz's PK shutout streak still dates all the way back to December 23rd.

What would I change. Well for starters I don't think having Matthews and Marner kill penalties is a bad thing. They've proven to be pretty elite defensive players over their careers and very good penalty killers as well. I don't think them getting a 30-45 second shift per PK is going to kill them. The Panthers last regular season, last playoffs, and this regular season have consistently ran Barkov-Reinhart as their 2nd PK forward unit and it's obviously worked out pretty good there.

The change that the Leafs could and probably should make is in their usage. Last nights game was a good example. For the first 4 penalty killers Matthews and Marner were out for the first shift, and of course got scored on in the 4th one. They didn't go out for the 5th PK because it happened at the end of a shift for them. I don't really get that. Kampf and Laughton's bread and butter has been penalty killing. For most of their careers they've been the top unit option for their teams. It feels kind of painfully obvious that the PK pairs should go Kampf-Laughton (two capable face-off options) to start against the other teams PP1, Matthews-Marner go out to catch the opposition PP1 as their tired or before PP2 can really get set up, and then Lorentz-Jarnkrok to clean up any minutes left after that.
 
I never really understood the 8-figure penalty killer. If we're insistent on being a 2 line team, let role guys have roles.
Again though the reigning Stanley Cup champions and the favourites heading into this years playoffs think it's fine. There's just probably a better balance to be had for the Leafs.
 
Marchand is playing tonight for the Panthers....which leads me back to WTF do teams go out of their way to do favours for the Florida/Vegas teams over and over again
 
I never really understood the 8-figure penalty killer. If we're insistent on being a 2 line team, let role guys have roles.
Everyone on the team needs to put into the best positions to maximize their ability to help the team win, regardless of how much they make. If that includes time on the PK, then so be it. Marner, for example, has generally been excellent on the PK and hasn't had it impact his ability to contribute. Matthews has also been a very good penalty killer. How much they make is ultimate immaterial to that. If they're good at something and it can help the team win, they should be doing it. There's a balance to be struck, sure, but the end goal is winning. Every decision should be made towards that goal, and the means using the best players in every situation rather than reducing people to roles.
 
Marchand is playing tonight for the Panthers....which leads me back to WTF do teams go out of their way to do favours for the Florida/Vegas teams over and over again
He's already back? Wow.. So they trade their lifelong Bruin and Captain to a fierce playoff rival so as to ensure a 2nd round pick, that, AT BEST SCENARIO, can turn into a 1st round pick, which would likely be in the 30 overall range. I don't get it either..
 
Tampa can stop it already.
6-1 Penguins, 8-0 Utah, 4-0 Islanders (game still ongoing)

18 goals on 67 shots. 27% shooting percentage
 
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