I haven't had the time to follow the draft talent very closely this year, but this eased my mind some:
Where Gauthier was ranked prior to the draft:
thescoutingreport.org: No. 12 Overall
Future Considerations: No. 16 Overall
International Scouting Services: No. 18 Overall
NHLNumbers.com: No. 20 Overall
Craig Button/TSN: No. 21 Overall
Bob McKenzie/TSN: No. 22 Overall
The Hockey Guys: No. 22 Overall
SportsNet: No. 23 Overall
McKeen's: No. 23 Overall
Grant Sonier ESPN: No. 25 Overall
Kyle Woodlief, USA Today mock draft: No. 26 Overall
Hockey Prospect: No. 29 Overall
Ryan Kennedy/Hockey News: No. 30 Overall
Hockey Prospectus: No. 31 Overall
Woodlief/Red Line Report: No. 32 Overall
Chris Peters/CBS: No. 36 Overall
Leafs picked 21st, slightly higher than the average of the above rankings.
NHL Central Scouting: No. 8 North American Skaters
Here's some other comments:
Questions about Gauthier's overall offensive upside led to his tumble down the board, but he's still a very good prospect that has a good chance to go in the first round. His size stands out, but he also uses it very well and could develop into a strong two-way power forward down the line. He was near a point-per-game as a QMJHL rookie this year. CBS Sports
?Humongous and well skilled two-way centre in the Jordan Staal mould. Good puckhandler who distributes it well. Moves well for a big man-child and does good work in Will use his size to win battles. Very defensively aware and responsible; cuts off passing lanes and understands positioning. Strong hockey sense in all three zones. Quick release on his shot.? Red Line Report
?Gauthier is a solid team player who does whatever is asked of him with pride and determination. He has very good speed and intimidates his opponents with his speed and size. Another advantage is he has a strong work ethic and good defensive habits at a young age. He plays such a solid consistent game 5 on 5 that he should be able to translate that into the pro ranks. Particularly effective when used on the penalty kill where his speed and hockey sense can lead to unexpected offensive opportunities. Can play either a skilled game or a hard-nosed physical game.? International Scouting Services 2013 Draft Guide
"I've never seen a kid get back and play defense like he does in 20 years. In his own end, he's always around the puck. A kid that can play defense like he does at his age, with that kind of maturity, is very rare." NHL Central Scouting?s Chris Bordeleau
He plays a 200-foot game. His motor is always going and he helps down low and can be right back into the play and create on offense. He has unbelievable hands in traffic for a guy his size and can make plays. I didn't know him at all from last year, and was very impressed when I saw him this year. David Gregory of Central Scouting
Gauthier inches up from his #14 ranking in January as we see him as a player worth a roll of the dice in the Top 15. After bypassing an NCAA offer from Harvard, Gauthier had an up and down rookie season with Rimouski that culminated with a U18 Gold Medal in Sochi. Gauthier's mammoth size and adept skating ability will obviously jump out to any observer right away, but there's more to his game that projects value at the next level.
The Laval, Que. native has a well developed two-way game and has shown inviting flashes of projectable offensive potential. The main concern is centered around whether or not that potential will be realized. Gauthier has the tools to be an NHL player as a polished defensive center, but there is legitimate risk that the offensive game doesn't come around to the level it needs to be for him to be a true Top 9 player. The Scouting Report.org
Gauthier experienced an up-and-down campaign. He showed significant flashes, but also lapsed offensively for long stretches. He measures at 6'5", 214 pounds, has some offensive talent, and shows advanced play for his age. He is an above-average skater, well above-average for a player his size, as he has a real easiness to his stride. He exerts little effort in his pushoffs, and he picks up speed very well. He is very agile, given his size. He had good offensive numbers this season, despite lining up against the opposition's best players and taking a lot of defensive zone draws. He has a good amount of offensive hockey sense, but sometimes he is too conservative and would be better served by letting his creativity show. His pure offensive upside is a question mark. He also can be a gentle giant at times. He will engage, and I would not describe his play as soft, but he will not throw his body around, and he is not the meanest of players. Despite his frame, he does need to get stronger, and he could stand to shoot a tad more as well. Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/nhl-draft-prospects-no-23-frederik-gauthier/
Scout?s take: ?I thought he had a good year, but he seemed to kind of be a little bit of a different player in November when he broke his jaw,? says David Burstyn, director of scouting for McKeen?s Hockey. ?He wasn?t as engaged as he was in the first two months and he played tentatively. I like him as a good utility player. I thought he did a good job improving his draft stock. I thought he was really good at the under-18s.
?He?s one of those utility guys ? a little bit like Michal Handzus ? takes good draws for you, blocks shots, can chip in with some timely scoring. If he scores 20 goals at the National Hockey League level, that?s going to be good, but you?re going to want this guy as a matchup player. You?re going to probably want him to keep other higher-profile forwards in check. He plays with energy ? he did at the under-18s, like he did at the beginning of the year. If he can play at that type of tempo with his size and his skating ability and his faceoff skills, he should be a pretty good third line depth player.?
?The prototypical 2nd/3rd centre that every team covets,? adds Ross MacLean, head scout for International Scouting Services. ?Gauthier has great size, works hard in both directions and can really shut down opponents top offensive players well. He thinks the game incredibly well and is a valuable asset in just about every situation. While he is at his best and most appealing in the defensive side of the game, he is no slouch offensively either and is a capable goal scorer and set up man. He uses his size well to protect possession and battle out plays around the net and in the corners.? From Sportsnet
http://thehockeywriters.com/combine/frederik-gauthier-nhl-2013-draft-war-room-prospect-profile/
Why are scouts so excited about this player who suddenly appears on the scene and seems to be on an upward progression to stardom?
Scoring: At one time, he was not known for his scoring ability but look at the ?Leader Board? ? Number one in the CHL in rookie scoring. The trio of Fr?d?rik, 6?3 201 lb. Scott Oke and 5?11 180 lb. Peter Trainor are cutting quite a swath in the early days of the 2012-13 QMJHL season. As well as scoring, all of them have a very high plus-minus (+12 to +14 with +13 for Fr?d?rik).
Skating: He has been criticized in the past for his skating but look at his first goal against Shawinigan on October 7, 2012. The player that scored that goal was flying. Yes, he could stand to improve his agility and his passing speed but Fr?d?rik has improved his skating enough that he just leaves scouts wondering how good he can be if he improves his skating even further. The video is from Jerome Berube of HockeyProspects.com and you really should bookmark his site if you want to follow the exploits of the stars of the 2013 NHL draft. Seek out his isolation video of Nathan MacKinnon when you are there.
Size: Many say that he doesn?t use his size enough. Although this is true to a certain extent, at 6?4, 219 lb. he is plenty strong to do what he wants for the most part. His 6?4 size also gives him a considerable reach advantage over most players. 6?4, 219 pounders who can skate decently and score don?t grow on trees. The thought of what this guy can do when he starts to more effectively optimize the use of his god-given size and strength down the road is what has scouts drooling today.
Defensive awareness: The scouting fraternity tend to agree on one thing: Fr?d?rik Gauthier has that defensive awareness that is not often seen in ?raw rookies?. His acumen in his own end is reminiscent of Sean Couturier.
Vision: A lot of that defensive awareness comes from Fr?d?rik?s ability to read what is happening around him and properly adjust to the changing circumstances. At the moment, Fr?d?rik is still too passive in his play in that it is still mainly reactionary. However, as he adjusts to his new league that will start to change and he will be the one initiating the play.
Other skills: Fr?d?rik is still very raw in most of his skills. However, they are coming along. For instance, he is still under 50% in face-offs but he had one game recently where he went 17 to 23. His passing is pretty good but his shot is something that requires an upgrade to bring it to NHL minimums.
Gauthier possesses the complete package of skills to be a a very effective NHL player. He started off the QMJHL campaign on an absolute tear offensively before fatigue and oppositional adjustments slowed him down. What will ultimately determine his ceiling is where you think his offensive ability eventually grades out. Is he a Paul Gaustad type ? a highly effective defensive player in a 3rd line role? Or is he a David Backes type ? capable of a 1st/2nd line role on a very good team? It?s tough to say at this point because the sample size is so small and the trajectories of power forwards is so unpredictable but I?m optimistic and will tend toward the latter. His size, strength and well-rounded game could see him ascend very quickly through an organization. Alex Tran, Maple Leafs Hot Stove
Unknown to us before the season started, this Q newcomer is humongous and has legitimate offensive skills. Has been the biggest surprise anywhere so far. USA Today, Oct 2012
Here are a few other write ups:
Frederik Gauthier - Comparables
http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/18/4431118/frederik-gauthier-draft-comparables
Frederik Gauthier: 2013 NHL Draft Player Profile #21
http://lastwordonsports.com/2013/04/30/frederik-gauthier-2013-nhl-draft-player-profile-21/
2013 NHL Draft Profile Series ? Frederik Gauthier
http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/06/06/2013-nhl-draft-profile-series-frederik-gauthier/
2013 NHL Draft Profile& Scouting Report: Fr?d?rik Gauthier
http://www.defendingbigd.com/2013/6/8/4409720/frederik-gauthier-scouting-report-draft-profile-2013
Gauthier plays all-round game well beyond his years
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=670537
Overall, although I'm not deeply intimate with the draft talent for 2013, I'm also not wringing my hands. The Leafs appear to have made a fairly reasonable pick from the talent available.
