21st overall - Frederik Gauthier

[Kin]

Like I said, he's not exactly those players and may not turn out to be close to the Staals of the world....but there's just as much chance out there that he'll be a solid offensive player as there is that he'll lack offensive skill.

Not really. This is where I think you kind of have to defer to scouts on the matter. They do a pretty good job of determining which junior players have offensive skills that will translate and which ones won't. When they look at a guy who scored the way he did as a 17 year old and say that he's not much of an offensive prospect there's probably something to it.

 

[cw]

This is an older but informative article about trying to project scoring from lower leagues to the NHL
http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

Age (right down to the month) of when a player scored a certain ppg is important as you can read in the above link.

There's the odd exception like Bertuzzi but if a forward can't score at a ppg clip in the CHL, I've found it's pretty rare for him to make top 6 in the NHL. And just because a forward scored at more than 1 ppg in the CHL, doesn't assure he's even going to make the NHL.on any forward line.

So you can develop some rough and loose boundaries but one has to look more closely at the individual player to get a more precise prediction of how they'll score - which is kind of what the various prospect rankings did.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Like I said, he's not exactly those players and may not turn out to be close to the Staals of the world....but there's just as much chance out there that he'll be a solid offensive player as there is that he'll lack offensive skill.

Not really. This is where I think you kind of have to defer to scouts on the matter. They do a pretty good job of determining which junior players have offensive skills that will translate and which ones won't. When they look at a guy who scored the way he did as a 17 year old and say that he's not much of an offensive prospect there's probably something to it.

Scouting Reports:

Frederik Gauthier?s scouting report:
Gauthier has the size ? listed at six-foot-three and 193 pounds ? but doesn?t use it in a physical sense, as his penalty minutes would suggest. He plays well at both ends of the rink and excels mostly in the faceoff circle. He won approximately 47 per cent of his draws, and only six players in the QMJHL took more face-offs than his 1,463 this season. Gauthier can be an imposing presence in front of the net on the power-play and a valued penalty killer due to his defensive acumen.



And some more:

Gauthier is a versatile forward who can play either wing or center and has the potential to be a talented all-around player. Gauthier is a sizable forward at 6?5?, 214 pounds, and he is an above-average skater considering his size. He also has solid defensive instincts that allow him to play an effective two-way game.

As a rookie, Gauthier was a bit tentative at times, but he showed spurts of brilliance. Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus had this to say about Gauthier.

He has a good amount of offensive hockey sense, but sometimes he is too conservative and would be better served by letting his creativity show. His pure offensive upside is a question mark. He also can be a gentle giant at times. He will engage, and I would not describe his play as soft, but he will not throw his body around, and he is not the meanest of players. Despite his frame, he does need to get stronger, and he could stand to shoot a tad more as well.

David Gregory of Central Scouting was also impressed with how Gauthier played this season, and he thinks the Quebec native has some solid potential.

He plays a 200-foot game. His motor is always going and he helps down low and can be right back into the play and create on offense. He has unbelievable hands in traffic for a guy his size and can make plays. I didn't know him at all from last year, and was very impressed when I saw him this year.

All in all, Gauthier is a decent player who still has a lot of time to fine tune and polish his game.



NHL Player Comparison

Ryan Kesler of the Vancouver Canucks. Gauthier plays an effective two-way game, and he has shown that he can be a solid offensive contributor.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1682043-frederik-gauthier-prospect-profile-on-toronto-maple-leafs-1st-round-pick


and another:

Talent Analysis
Already a polished prospect, Gauthier combines great size with a mature game at both ends of the ice. The same on-ice vision and hockey sense that makes him a dangerous contributor at the offensive side of the game also serves him well in breaking up opposing plays in his own zone. He's strong on the cycle, skates well and uses his size to win battles. Though he may never be a top offensive threat, he has too many tools to ignore.
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/frederik-gauthier/



?Gauthier experienced an up-and-down campaign. He showed significant flashes, but also lapsed offensively for long stretches. He measures at 6?5″, 214 pounds, has some offensive talent, and shows advanced play for his age. He is an above-average skater, well above-average for a player his size, as he has a real easiness to his stride. He exerts little effort in his pushoffs, and he picks up speed very well. He is very agile, given his size. He had good offensive numbers this season, despite lining up against the opposition?s best players and taking a lot of defensive zone draws. He has a good amount of offensive hockey sense, but sometimes he is too conservative and would be better served by letting his creativity show. His pure offensive upside is a question mark. He also can be a gentle giant at times. He will engage, and I would not describe his play as soft, but he will not throw his body around, and he is not the meanest of players. Despite his frame, he does need to get stronger, and he could stand to shoot a tad more as well.?

Corey Pronman ? Hockey Prospectus

?Humongous and well skilled two-way centre in the Jordan Staal mould. Good puckhandler who distributes it well. Moves well for a big man-child and does good work in traffic.  Doesn?t have a naturally nasty disposition, but don?t get him angry or he?ll turn mean in a hurry. Will use his size to win battles.  Very defensively aware and responsible; cuts off passing lanes and understands positioning. Strong hockey sense in all three zones. Quick release on his shot.?



I don't see too many scouting reports saying that he lacks offensive upside. Only that he was tentative at times. They say the skill is there and only question whether or not he'll realize it.

 

[Kin]

I don't see too many scouting reports saying that he lacks offensive upside. Only that he was tentative at times. They say the skill is there and only question whether or not he'll realize it.

In what you quoted you have "His pure offensive upside is a question mark", "Though he may never be a top offensive threat..." and "His pure offensive upside is a question mark." although I suspect that last one is just the first one repeated.

Anyways, I think that's largely the issue with him and why he was not seen by most as a top 20 pick.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't see too many scouting reports saying that he lacks offensive upside. Only that he was tentative at times. They say the skill is there and only question whether or not he'll realize it.

In what you quoted you have "His pure offensive upside is a question mark", "Though he may never be a top offensive threat..." and "His pure offensive upside is a question mark." although I suspect that last one is just the first one repeated.

Anyways, I think that's largely the issue with him and why he was not seen by most as a top 20 pick.

And all are saying the skill is there..it's just a question of him realizing it.

 

[cw]

I don't see too many scouting reports saying that he lacks offensive upside. Only that he was tentative at times. They say the skill is there and only question whether or not he'll realize it.

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=1766.msg134985#msg134985

"Questions about Gauthier's overall offensive upside led to his tumble down the board..."

"... has shown inviting flashes of projectable offensive potential. The main concern is centered around whether or not that potential will be realized. "

"He showed significant flashes, but also lapsed offensively for long stretches. ... has some offensive talent"

"I like him as a good utility player."

".... can chip in with some timely scoring" (a comment  you'd expect for a decent 3rd liner - not a top 6)

"... he should be a pretty good third line depth player.?

There's little there to suggest we can expect great things from him offensively - like you'd like to see for a top 6 prospect.

 

[Kin]

And all are saying the skill is there..it's just a question of him realizing it.

Well, no. "The" skill is not just a yes or no question. All are saying he's not entirely devoid of offensive talent, true, but none of them are talking about him as having the sort of elite offensive skill that would have pushed someone of his size towards the top ten.

 

[KadriFan]

OMG guys, he's an 18 year old boy.  Who knows for sure what he may or may not accomplish in the NHL. 

 

[cw]

OMG guys, he's an 18 year old boy.  Who knows for sure what he may or may not accomplish in the NHL.

Scouting isn't an exact and reliable science but that's what the scouts job is all about - projecting how he'd do in the NHL.

 

[KadriFan]

OMG guys, he's an 18 year old boy.  Who knows for sure what he may or may not accomplish in the NHL.

Scouting isn't an exact and reliable science but that's what the scouts job is all about - projecting how he'd do in the NHL.

Well I read someplace that he has great hands, vision and he can skate.  Sounds like the makings of a good play making center to me.  Wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't end up being a very good two way center for our team down the road. But then again, he is just a kid so who knows

PS: Didn't someone compare him to Jordan Staal???

 

[Highlander]

I highly recommend you watch this lad at the World U-18 youtube video.  Looks very skilled, the guy pickpockets everyone with that long reach. Skates well and seems to know where the puck is going all the time.  Was supposed to be a  University QB so that shows has leadership and vision smarts as well. And really is a beginner in this game, but learning fast.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Whoa, from all the scouts comments he sounds like a later-1st round draft pick!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I highly recommend you watch this lad at the World U-18 youtube video.  Looks very skilled, the guy pickpockets everyone with that long reach. Skates well and seems to know where the puck is going all the time.  Was supposed to be a  University QB so that shows has leadership and vision smarts as well. And really is a beginner in this game, but learning fast.

I love his size, and really love his reach.  He really does have a huge wingspan and knows how to use it.  I think he's faster than he looks, tall guys like that tend to look slower than they actually are.  I think he's got great anticipation and hands for acquiring the puck, but I also don't think his hands are very quick or soft for deft passes and dekes.  I'm very confident he could be an NHLer, he definitely looks like a useful player.  But if he could soften up those hands a little...  I hope he can, though I doubt he develops top offensive ability.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Whoa, from all the scouts comments he sounds like a later-1st round draft pick!

Exactly

 

[OldTimeHockey]

And all are saying the skill is there..it's just a question of him realizing it.

Well, no. "The" skill is not just a yes or no question. All are saying he's not entirely devoid of offensive talent, true, but none of them are talking about him as having the sort of elite offensive skill that would have pushed someone of his size towards the top ten.

Umm that's why he was drafted 21st. The way some have reacted to the pick around here you'd think they drafted Colton Orr's clone.

 

[Kin]

The way some have reacted to the pick around here you'd think they drafted Colton Orr's clone.

I don't think that's true. I think there are people who've wondered about using a 1st round pick on someone with limited offensive upside when there were some guys with higher offensive potential around but I haven't seen much in the way of over-reaction. Personally, I'm ok with the pick but I understand the concern with using a first round pick on someone who probably tops out as a #2 center but realistically projects out as a really good #3. Especially considering the Leafs system right now is probably most notably lacking the sort of potential high-impact forwards that might have been drafted.

 

[cw]

Whoa, from all the scouts comments he sounds like a later-1st round draft pick!

Exactly

This post with a bunch of those scouts comments showed:
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=1766.msg134985#msg134985
Where Gauthier was ranked prior to the draft:
thescoutingreport.org: No. 12 Overall
Future Considerations: No. 16 Overall
International Scouting Services: No. 18 Overall
NHLNumbers.com: No. 20 Overall
Craig Button/TSN: No. 21 Overall
Bob McKenzie/TSN: No. 22 Overall
The Hockey Guys: No. 22 Overall
SportsNet: No. 23 Overall
McKeen's: No. 23 Overall
Grant Sonier ESPN: No. 25 Overall
Kyle Woodlief, USA Today mock draft: No. 26 Overall
Hockey Prospect: No. 29 Overall
Ryan Kennedy/Hockey News: No. 30 Overall
Hockey Prospectus: No. 31 Overall
Woodlief/Red Line Report: No. 32 Overall
Chris Peters/CBS: No. 36 Overall

Leafs picked 21st, slightly higher than the average of the above rankings.

He didn't have to have super offensive skills to be ranked where he was - as a 1st rounder by most.

Only about 50% of 1st rounders turn out. Between 2001 and 2009, 7 of 23 QMJHL players (30%) drafted in the first round went on to become top 6, top 4 or a decent starting goalie.  43% or 10 of 23 became NHL regulars. So even then, it's still a fairly wild guess at this point whether he'll even make the NHL in any capacity - ignoring whether he'll be able to score at a top 6 clip.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

 

[OldTimeHockey]

The way some have reacted to the pick around here you'd think they drafted Colton Orr's clone.

I don't think that's true. I think there are people who've wondered about using a 1st round pick on someone with limited offensive upside when there were some guys with higher offensive potential around but I haven't seen much in the way of over-reaction. Personally, I'm ok with the pick but I understand the concern with using a first round pick on someone who probably tops out as a #2 center but realistically projects out as a really good #3. Especially considering the Leafs system right now is probably most notably lacking the sort of potential high-impact forwards that might have been drafted.

Okay well we're essentially on the same wave length. Now I ask this because I don't know....were there players drafted later that are seen as sure fire top 6 players?

 

[Kin]

Okay well we're essentially on the same wave length. Now I ask this because I don't know....were there players drafted later that are seen as sure fire top 6 players?

No, but that's not really the argument either. It's that there are guys who were picked later who have better chances at becoming top line guys but perhaps without the sort of "Well, if his offense doesn't develop he'll still probably be a solid bottom six player" thing that Gauthier has which may make him a less risky pick.

The more general point being that because the deeper you go into the draft the fewer and fewer guys have top line potential but there are guys with bottom six potential that you should take your shots at that top line talent when you have it.

Anyways, like I said, I'm ok with the pick. I don't love it, I don't hate it and I don't think that someone who thinks the Leafs should have taken someone with more of that boom or bust potential like Shinkaruk is wrong necessarily.