All quiet on the Leaf front. But why?

[moon111]

The Leafs have been the most successful Canadian team.  If you traded Toronto's draft pick positions with Ottawa's, the Leafs win the Cup.  The fact is, their lows haven't been low enough.  Even now when the Leafs were terrible, there were teams that were worst.

 

[skrackle]

Because the Leafs are up against the cap with a heap of under-performing players relative to their salary and because the free agent pool is so shallow, there isn't a lot Burke can do, I don't think, without compromising the future.  It would be great if the leafs signed Shultz, but that isn't really in their control.  They don't really have the cap space to give Parise the $8+ million it will take to get him (again, even then, not under their control).

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

How do you sell a perpetual loser to free agents? You have to show some semblence of success before free agents start flocking to your team. This is basically a redux of what Burke hoped to do after he traded for Kessel.

Selling to UFAs to sign with the Leafs isn't what I'd consider a priority. Once the Leafs have assembled a young core that can win on their own, they will become an attractive destination for UFAs that might be the missing piece, or an additional weapon.

Depending on UFAs to transform the leafs from a lottery pick team to a Cup contender is the fool's errand the team has been on since the lockout. Burke fell prone to this way of thinking in his first years as Leafs GM. It's more fun and ego gratifying to think you can outsmart everyone and fast-track success, but you almost always end up digging yourself a hole.

I hope Burke has figured this out by now, as far as the Leafs are concerned. I'd like to see Burke be given the freedom to build the Leafs for a shot at ultimate success. If asked (and nobody is, I know) I'd predict at least three more years of pain before signs of the tide turning start to show.

 

[lamajama]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

If this happens Burke is gone and then we'll have the "new" vision from the replacement and that will be another 5 years++.

We'd better do all we can (but no Gardiner) to move up and I can still see Edm trading the pick. We get Gardiner's pal to sign and drop Komi and Army to the Marlies (if $$ are required) and use the money to try for Parise or someone else who'd actually help (and not Nash) although it's very unlikely though the best UFA's would come here. Luongo would almost guarantee the playoffs so I'm really torn. Don't forget that I think we have seen the new Leafs already with less goals scored and a far more defensive team. We're going to have to turn over another 5-8 players easily to even get close to what Carlyle wants. It'll certainly be another year of turmoil IMO.

 

[Bender]

Because the Leafs are up against the cap with a heap of under-performing players relative to their salary and because the free agent pool is so shallow, there isn't a lot Burke can do, I don't think, without compromising the future.  It would be great if the leafs signed Shultz, but that isn't really in their control.  They don't really have the cap space to give Parise the $8+ million it will take to get him (again, even then, not under their control).

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

How do you sell a perpetual loser to free agents? You have to show some semblence of success before free agents start flocking to your team. This is basically a redux of what Burke hoped to do after he traded for Kessel.

Selling to UFAs to sign with the Leafs isn't what I'd consider a priority. Once the Leafs have assembled a young core that can win on their own, they will become an attractive destination for UFAs that might be the missing piece, or an additional weapon.

Depending on UFAs to transform the leafs from a lottery pick team to a Cup contender is the fool's errand the team has been on since the lockout. Burke fell prone to this way of thinking in his first years as Leafs GM. It's more fun and ego gratifying to think you can outsmart everyone and fast-track success, but you almost always end up digging yourself a hole.

I hope Burke has figured this out by now, as far as the Leafs are concerned. I'd like to see Burke be given the freedom to build the Leafs for a shot at ultimate success. If asked (and nobody is, I know) I'd predict at least three more years of pain before signs of the tide turning start to show.

I didn't say to load up on free agents exclusively but IMO I do believe winning has a lot of intangible benefits. We'll get a good pick where we're sitting right now and I think we can start bringing up the kids and turning the roster over as we've finally filled up the cupboard. It doesn't have to be a tank for five more years plan. We've got a better prospect pool than we've ever had. I think a year or two of making the playoffs and competing will help the kids and also attract free agents.

You DO need free agents eventually, and to miss out on the 2014 crop because those FA's see a team that is too inexperienced to compete is a real detriment imo.

 

[Tigger]

drop Komi and Army to the Marlies (if $$ are required) and use the money to try for Parise or someone else who'd actually help

For the bazillionth time, Komi has a full NMC, he can't be dropped to the AHL.

 

[ZBBM]

(By the way, when i said 2014, i meant 2013 -- the year after this one could well be a great ufa year).

This is not a criticism of your post, but I do want to point out that you can't do any significant long-range planning based on what might happen with UFAs 2 years or more out.  Sure, you have to be aware of the general outlines of when contracts expire, but banking/betting on future UFAs (other than the immediate crop) can't form any part of a serious plan.

 

[Madferret]

The Leafs have been the most successful Canadian team.  If you traded Toronto's draft pick positions with Ottawa's, the Leafs win the Cup.  The fact is, their lows haven't been low enough.  Even now when the Leafs were terrible, there were teams that were worst.

No they haven't. How could you possibly even justify that?

 

[princedpw]

(By the way, when i said 2014, i meant 2013 -- the year after this one could well be a great ufa year).

This is not a criticism of your post, but I do want to point out that you can't do any significant long-range planning based on what might happen with UFAs 2 years or more out.  Sure, you have to be aware of the general outlines of when contracts expire, but banking/betting on future UFAs (other than the immediate crop) can't form any part of a serious plan.

I agree that planning of the form "Player X is a UFA two years from now; We will grab him then and win the cup" is unlikely to be successful.  It is always the case that over the course of the two years, a large number of such potential UFAs are signed.  Having said that, this year and next (13 months from now) appear somewhat anomalous.  This year, the UFA market seems historically weak.  Next year, an unusually large percentage of the league remains without a deal.  Clearly, this is because of the dynamics of the CBA expiring.  I don't think it is irrational to wager that this year UFA shopping is likely to be difficult and expensive; next year, there is a chance it will be better.  Of course, it is a gamble, but when it comes to player movement, most things are.

And I do agree with Moon -- it is necessary to buy some UFAs.  I'm not against it.  Buying UFAs can be an effective way to increase your talent pool -- even UFAs you buy and then trade later (like Beauchemin) help increase your team talent.

 

[ZBBM]

(By the way, when i said 2014, i meant 2013 -- the year after this one could well be a great ufa year).

This is not a criticism of your post, but I do want to point out that you can't do any significant long-range planning based on what might happen with UFAs 2 years or more out.  Sure, you have to be aware of the general outlines of when contracts expire, but banking/betting on future UFAs (other than the immediate crop) can't form any part of a serious plan.

I agree that planning of the form "Player X is a UFA two years from now; We will grab him then and win the cup" is unlikely to be successful.  It is always the case that over the course of the two years, a large number of such potential UFAs are signed.  Having said that, this year and next (13 months from now) appear somewhat anomalous.  This year, the UFA market seems historically weak.  Next year, an unusually large percentage of the league remains without a deal.  Clearly, this is because of the dynamics of the CBA expiring.  I don't think it is irrational to wager that this year UFA shopping is likely to be difficult and expensive; next year, there is a chance it will be better.  Of course, it is a gamble, but when it comes to player movement, most things are.

And I do agree with Moon -- it is necessary to buy some UFAs.  I'm not against it.  Buying UFAs can be an effective way to increase your talent pool -- even UFAs you buy and then trade later (like Beauchemin) help increase your team talent.

All true and it's rather likely that as a result we will get at least one good UFA.  Just saying there's no way to plan for it.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs have been the most successful Canadian team.  If you traded Toronto's draft pick positions with Ottawa's, the Leafs win the Cup.  The fact is, their lows haven't been low enough.  Even now when the Leafs were terrible, there were teams that were worst.

Is this a joke post?

 

[KW Sluggo]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

 

[princedpw]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

We started from a position in which JFJ had traded away a bunch of our first-round picks, we had no prospects, we lost all our top-end talent (Sundin, McCabe, Roberts, Newy, Mogilny) with no return, so yeah, it is going to take a bunch of years to recover from the massive system-wide talent deficit we found ourselves in.  Wishing we were further ahead doesn't make it so.

 

[Strangelove]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

We started from a position in which JFJ had traded away a bunch of our first-round picks, we had no prospects, we lost all our top-end talent (Sundin, McCabe, Roberts, Newy, Mogilny) with no return, so yeah, it is going to take a bunch of years to recover from the massive system-wide talent deficit we found ourselves in.  Wishing we were further ahead doesn't make it so.

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

A mess? I don't think so. Dudley didn't think so when he left, and he's one of the premier talent evaluators, no?

 

[jonlleafs]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

We started from a position in which JFJ had traded away a bunch of our first-round picks, we had no prospects, we lost all our top-end talent (Sundin, McCabe, Roberts, Newy, Mogilny) with no return, so yeah, it is going to take a bunch of years to recover from the massive system-wide talent deficit we found ourselves in.  Wishing we were further ahead doesn't make it so.

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

Only if you tell me how much longer it will be fashionable to blame the current GM when we don't have a Stanley Cup after just 2-3yrs of service?  It takes leg work and time to build a champion.  Burke has done a lot.  Not everyone is a homerun but we have a ton more usable assets then we ever did with JFJ.

 

[Strangelove]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

We started from a position in which JFJ had traded away a bunch of our first-round picks, we had no prospects, we lost all our top-end talent (Sundin, McCabe, Roberts, Newy, Mogilny) with no return, so yeah, it is going to take a bunch of years to recover from the massive system-wide talent deficit we found ourselves in.  Wishing we were further ahead doesn't make it so.

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

Only if you tell me how much longer it will be fashionable to blame the current GM when we don't have a Stanley Cup after just 2-3yrs of service?  It takes leg work and time to build a champion.  Burke has done a lot.  Not everyone is a homerun but we have a ton more usable assets then we ever did with JFJ.

Who said anything about a Stanley Cup?

And saying we have usable assets is great, but I see absolutely no evidence of it.  A few, maybe.  But the idea that we have "a ton" (or even "a ton more") is pretty laughable.  Being a very bad team doesn't automatically means that the future is bright, and in the Leafs' case, right now, it really isn't.

 

[Strangelove]

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

A mess? I don't think so. Dudley didn't think so when he left, and he's one of the premier talent evaluators, no?

He was also employed by the Leafs until immediately before he made that claim.  What else is he supposed to say?

 

[jonlleafs]

My "best case" scenario is really that we tank this year, sell off Connolly, Lombardi, Armstrong at the deadline, obtain another top 5 pick and reload with the 2014 free agents (hoping there are many).  Maybe by 2016, we will have a decent team.

Been there, did that ...last year .... and the year before that etc etc

We started from a position in which JFJ had traded away a bunch of our first-round picks, we had no prospects, we lost all our top-end talent (Sundin, McCabe, Roberts, Newy, Mogilny) with no return, so yeah, it is going to take a bunch of years to recover from the massive system-wide talent deficit we found ourselves in.  Wishing we were further ahead doesn't make it so.

How much longer is it going to be fashionable to blame JFJ for the current state of the Leafs?  Burke hasn't exactly strockpiled legitimate talent himself, in case you haven't noticed.  Either in the minors or on the big squad.  Beyond a select few gems, the organization is more or less a mess.  Arguably more so than when JFJ was canned.

Only if you tell me how much longer it will be fashionable to blame the current GM when we don't have a Stanley Cup after just 2-3yrs of service?  It takes leg work and time to build a champion.  Burke has done a lot.  Not everyone is a homerun but we have a ton more usable assets then we ever did with JFJ.

Who said anything about a Stanley Cup?

And saying we have usable assets is great, but I see absolutely no evidence of it.  A few, maybe.  But the idea that we have "a ton" (or even "a ton more") is pretty laughable.  Being a very bad team doesn't automatically means that the future is bright, and in the Leafs' case, right now, it really isn't.

This team wasn't a very bad team for about 1/2 to 2/3 of the season.  At that point the goaltending fell apart and the player's confidence along with it.  So, I don't agree with you that we have a very bad  team.  We have a team that needs to shore up goaltending.  When we have goaltending (not even elite but above average), our defense will look like they learned how to play defense again.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

He was also employed by the Leafs until immediately before he made that claim.  What else is he supposed to say?

You're right, I'm sure he just made that stuff up.

 

[Strangelove]

He was also employed by the Leafs until immediately before he made that claim.  What else is he supposed to say?

You're right, I'm sure he just made that stuff up.

I didn't say he made it up.  I said wasn't about to say anything else, so you're unlikely to gain any special insight by listening to him.

And anyway, what he said was something like "the Leafs are 3 really good players (including a goalie) away from being a contender."  I can't think of many teams for which that wouldn't be true.