Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Kin]

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

 

[herman]

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/

 

[Coco-puffs]

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.

Wheeler has Werenski at 4 and Provorov at 7.  I'd take Provorov all day everyday ahead of Werenski. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/

Their 2013 re-draft has Rasmus Ristolainen ahead of Seth Jones?!?!?!?! 

 

[Highlander]

Just read an article about the Canes players for sale.  Looks like Justin Faulk  is available.  Is he any good as I have not watched the Canes in years and what would we have to give up for him?

 

[cabber24]

He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.

 

[herman]

He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.

Question: what is defensively stronger than putting the puck into the opposing net?

I'm being a biiiit facetious. I know we need some better options for players that can withstand extended DZ pressure (Polak strong) that hopefully don't invite it in the course of their play (Polak slow and backing off play).

Barring a delicious trade to a stupid GM, I still hold out some hope for Zaitsev learning how to skate out of pressure and seeing/hitting outlets, because he has got the tools to push up ice as well as the tools to break cycles. It was starting to come together at times last season, but punctuated by injury and some stand out mistakes.

 

[Highlander]

He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.

Agreed, I just wish one of our towering draft picks was ready to step in, would be nice to see one or two 6'5" guys on the ice with mobility.

 

[Kin]

I think people are going to have to disabuse themselves of the idea that the Leafs are going to be able to really solve their defensive issues externally. That's not to say they can't improve things to a degree but significant external improvement is either going to have to come from a free agent signing, which tends to be a limited and inefficient market, or via trade which necessitates paying a price in direct relation to the player being traded for.

Personally, I dont think the Leafs have enough of a surplus in either forward talent or non-NHL assets that any sort of significant trade for blue line help would be an easy decision. Take the Hamonic deal as an example; does Hamonic but no JVR make the team better? Sure, it makes the team more balanced but I don't think that means better automatically.

(Excepting of course that they'd have Hamonic for next year)

That's why I think it's important to keep in mind that Carolina's big "announcement" about player availability doesn't amount to much. There's a big difference between for sale and on sale.

 

[herman]

I think that?s the right read, Nik. They?re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it?s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it?s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander?s respective deficiencies accordingly.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Best defense is a good offense!

I'm sure we'll see incremental improvement on defense. No big splash opportunities, but they can improve without adding top pairing guys.

Splash where you can, i.e. Tavares.

 

[Kin]

I think that?s the right read, Nik. They?re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it?s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it?s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander?s respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.

 

[herman]

So, I'm a big proponent of offense = effective defense.

That being said, I also feel there is a huge belief among hockey management groups that 50+ pt defenders are ones who need 7M+ and they are highly valuable and sought after (sup, Dion Phaneuf?).

I also believe that trying to score from the point regularly (a la Brent Burns, Shea Weber) is basically the NHL version of the long two-pointer in basketball: it is depressingly inefficient. On a team like the Leafs, that's taking the puck away from your actual firepower (Matthews, Nylander, Kadri), so they really only use the point shot for deliberate high tips, rebounds, and to keep goaltenders occasionally honest by bringing their shot down to the top of the circle.

What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

It also means I'm willing to ship out one of Rielly/Gardiner for a king's ransom because Dermott could make them surplus to needs for a fraction of the cost. I kind of want to keep Gardiner over Rielly too, because of the CA60 difference, but salary considerations and age might flip that around.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Gardiner is a UFA after next season. Count me in on the trade Gardiner bandwagon.

 

[Kin]

What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?

 

[herman]

What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?

Haha hasn?t had the opportunity to put up points yet due to opportunity or playing only with garbage forwards.

I.e. doesn?t need to score it himself

 

[herman]

I think that?s the right read, Nik. They?re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it?s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it?s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander?s respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.

Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Forward depth is the area we can really stand out with.

 

[Kin]

Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.

 

[herman]

Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.

I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.