Armchair GM 2021-2022: Catharsis

[Bullfrog]

...
To LAK: Mitch Marner (signing bonus paid, 4x 10.903M), Morgan Rielly (1x 5M)
To TOR: 2022 1st, Quinton Byfield, Akil Thomas, Olli Maataa, Matt Roy, whatever buriable spare parts they want to dump
...

Well, that would certainly help with the prospect pool, though I don't think it's nearly enough value for Marner.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

So to be clear we've gone from:

"Hyman doesn't produce enough" -> Actually scored at a 60 point pace for the last 2 seasons which is pretty good

"Ok but he should produce more with M&M" -> Actually scored at a 31 goal, 82 point pace when on their line this season (probably not sustainable but impressive nonetheless)

"Ok ok FINE but he didn't produce enough in the playoffs" -> Well if we're gonna start making decisions on that I can think of a hell of a lot better ways to spend $10,903,000.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Not really, he should produce more playing with them. It's pretty simple.

He had 18 points in 18 games with them.

How many in the playoffs, you know, when it matters? 5 points the last 3 years for Hyman. And let's be honest, that goal he got this year was going in without the aid of him barely touching it.
He has the same amount of points as Spezza who's played here only the last 2 years(7 games less).
1 more point then Galchenyuk had this playoffs, so 12 less games, 11mins less per game and no PP time.
1 more point then Dermott in 4 less games with no PP time..
1 more then Johnsson in 11 less games and we shipped him out.
He was 17th in P/60 yet 4th in ice time, 3rd in PP time, in these playoffs. That's not good enough to warrant being on the top line and certainly not good enough to get a big raise either.

So to be clear we've gone from:

"Hyman doesn't produce enough" -> Actually scored at a 60 point pace for the last 2 seasons which is pretty good

"Ok but he should produce more with M&M" -> Actually scored at a 31 goal, 82 point pace when on their line this season (probably not sustainable but impressive nonetheless)

"Ok ok FINE but he didn't produce enough in the playoffs" -> Well if we're gonna start making decisions on that I can think of a hell of a lot better ways to spend $10,903,000.

It actually started from this....
~4.5 for Hyman? That's a huge overpay for what he brings. Listen I love his work ethic but the way he's over valued is beyond nuts. He's not a 1st line player and he's not worth what some are mentioning. He has 5 pts in his last 3 playoffs playing with M&M. He had 2 more 5v5 goals then Mikheyev and Engvall.~
Notice how the playoffs are mentioned? Let's make it crystal clear for everybody then. HE DOESN'T PRODUCE ENOUGH IN THE PLAYOFFS TO WARRANT BEING ON THE TOP LINE....?

As for his regular season points..Would Marner still put up the points he did without Matthews, Hyman? Why yes he probably would. Would Matthews still score lots of goals without Marner, Hyman? Ah, yup he has in the past. Would Hyman put up those numbers without M&M? Not a chance. He's totally benefited from paying with those elite guys...we need better on that line especially in the playoffs.

 

[Chris]

How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

 

[Guilt Trip]

How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

Marner was putting up points when Babs used to put him on the 4th line with Matt Martin, remember? He's a type of player that can drive a line.

 

[Bullfrog]

How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

The answer is yes.

 

[wnc096]

How many points would Marner get if he wasn't playing with a Matthews or Tavares? Can he drive his own line and significantly elevate lesser players? What if you put him with Engvall and Mikheyev. Matthews would probably still score 40 playing with them. Would Marner still get 90 points?  80? 40?

An almost $11 million player should be able to produce without being tethered to a Matthews or Tavares. Could Marner do that? This is all hypothetical of course since the team was built to take advantage of the pairs (M&M and JT/WN).

Yes he would.  He's a legit star player.  He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey.  He couldn't dangle his way through defenders, he and Matthews need to adapt

 

[L K]

Hyman-Matthews-Marner - 291.6 minutes - 21 goals for (4.32/60) - 8 goals against (1.65/60)

Matthews-Marner - 393.5 minutes - 24 goals for (3.67/60) - 12 goals against (1.83/60)

Matthews - 19.9 minutes - 1 goal for (3.01/60), 0 against

Hyman-Marner - 25.2 minutes - 0 goals for and 1 goal against (2.38/60)

Hyman - 227 minutes - 10 goals for (2.64/60) , 4 against (1.06/60)

Marner - 42.6 minutes - 2 goal for (2.82/60), 4 against (5.63/60)

Their numbers together are clearly better than separated although some of the separations are definitely too small to really make judgements on them.  Also something doesn't seem perfectly right with the numbers from Moneypuck as the toi seems low.

 

[Kin]

He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey. 

Like, I'm the first guy to admit Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but I think it's also important to point out that he has been good in the past. Prior to this year he had 21 points in 25 career playoff games. Again, not outstanding, but I think it's a far cry from what some people are saying where he's incapable of the mental toughness required for playing good hockey in the playoffs. I remember a lot of people here saying he was the team's best player in the loss against the Bruins in 2018.

 

[Guilt Trip]

He just needed to adjust his game for playoff hockey. 

Like, I'm the first guy to admit Marner wasn't great in the playoffs but I think it's also important to point out that he has been good in the past. Prior to this year he had 21 points in 25 career playoff games. Again, not outstanding, but I think it's a far cry from what some people are saying where he's incapable of the mental toughness required for playing good hockey in the playoffs. I remember a lot of people here saying he was the team's best player in the loss against the Bruins in 2018.

That's very true. I think he was playing with Bozak and JVR in that series. I think he just needs to get out of his own head. Let's hope so.

 

[ZBBM]

That was true in 2018.  He then proceeded to regress, moving resolutely and with head held high down into the freaking tarpit that is the only truly accurate description of this year's playoffs.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

 

[L K]

So the expansion draft:

7 forwards/3 defensemen + goalie  OR 8 skaters + goalie

First and second year players are exempted and unsigned players are exempt.
At least one defenseman who played 40 games last year or 70 over the last two: Dermott
At least two forwards who played 40 games/70 over the last two: Kerfoot, Engvall
At least one goalie under contract: Hutchinson

Tavares - NMC
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Holl

Campbell

That exposes: Dermott, Engvall, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Brooks

Maybe it isn't doable but should the Leafs try and trade Rielly/Kerfoot before the expansion draft if there is a team that is interested?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Small note: Mikheyev's exempt.

 

[Guilt Trip]

So the expansion draft:

7 forwards/3 defensemen + goalie  OR 8 skaters + goalie

First and second year players are exempted and unsigned players are exempt.
At least one defenseman who played 40 games last year or 70 over the last two: Dermott
At least two forwards who played 40 games/70 over the last two: Kerfoot, Engvall
At least one goalie under contract: Hutchinson

Tavares - NMC
Matthews
Marner
Nylander

Rielly
Brodie
Muzzin
Holl

Campbell

That exposes: Dermott, Engvall, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Brooks

Maybe it isn't doable but should the Leafs try and trade Rielly/Kerfoot before the expansion draft if there is a team that is interested?

As it stands right now, Leafs can't protect 2F, 1D, 1G from the following...
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kerfoot, Engvall, Tavares(NMC so will be protected).
Muzz, Brodie, Rielly, Holl.
Campbell, Hutch.
If they traded Rielly/Kerfoot, they wouldn't be allowed to protect one of the big 3 because they have to protect JT. Of course it depends on what comes back player wise but if no players came back and they don't sign anyone from now until the draft, one of Matthews, Willy, Marner would be left unprotected. Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

 

[bustaheims]

Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

If the Leafs plan on exposing him, that's a pretty easy fix.

That being said, it wouldn't shock me if the Leafs exposed Holl and made some kind of side deal with Seattle - especially if they're exploring moving Rielly.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Dermott can be protected but can't count towards the 1D, he doesn't meet the criteria because he isn't signed.

If the Leafs plan on exposing him, that's a pretty easy fix.

That being said, it wouldn't shock me if the Leafs exposed Holl and made some kind of side deal with Seattle - especially if they're exploring moving Rielly.

If the plan is to shed Kerfoot's salary they won't leave Holl unprotected. He'll be gone barring a side deal. Holl at 2mill is an incredible deal.
Dermott would have to sign in order to go in the group of 4. He may choose not to and take his chances.
It's going to be an interesting off season to see what direction the Leafs go...I think we've seen the last of the old guys though other then Spezza.
I think a Rielly move will totally depend on the ask. I think if Dubas can sign him for a reasonable raise he will.

 

[Kin]

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Do the Leafs have to protect a goalie?

 

[Guilt Trip]

I have to say, it would be something if the Leafs' reaction to all this is to trade the one guy on the team who almost unquestionably is playing over and above his cap hit.

If they don't want to take the chance of losing him they will. Pretty sure bet that Jack will be gone if they don't.