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Auston Matthews Extension: 13.25M AAV x 4yrs

Really don't love 4yrs but the term is about what I thought. Selfishly I still wish we did better though.
 
The Leafs break the mold again. Pay someone more than anyone else on just a 4 year term.

I am quite aware we?re spoiled to have him but I find it frustrating the Leafs keep going off the charts. Nylander at 8 figures suddenly seems a lot more reasonable.

 
cabber24 said:
The Leafs break the mold again. Pay someone more than anyone else on just a 4 year term.

For whatever it's worth, this is still a lower cap percentage than McDavid's current contract. And that's a RFA vs UFA deal. So in that sense it hasn't exactly broken the mold. McDavid is still the only player to clear over 16% of the cap on a new deal.
 
Just found out about it.
Haven't really digested it.
But my initial reaction was that it is about what I expected from the media reports.
Many felt it would not be an 8 year deal.
Hart & Rocket winner was going to get a raise.
Seems about 'right'
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

Now the media attention shifts to Nylander ....
 
cw said:
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

This is what I keep coming back to. A guy in Matthews' position basically gets to call his own shot. If he decided he wanted 4 years and the Leafs wanted more, what's the negotiating tactic there?

"Sign for 8 years"

"Nah"

"Ok, then we won't give you the money you want"

"Ok, I'll get it somewhere else"

Matthews would know the Leafs would never call the bluff of actually letting him walk so he could basically write his own contract. Even if you're of the opinion that an 8 year deal is better than a 4 year deal for the Leafs, and I still can't wrap my head around that one, there's no arm to twist here. Matthews would have been the most sought after UFA in the history of the NHL.
 
Nik said:
Hey, remember when people said he'd leave as a free agent for Arizona?

Now that that's officially behind us we can all admit...that was the dumbest thing anyone could have thought, right? Like, no sought after UFA in hockey right now is signing in Arizona unless there's a gun to their head.

https://x.com/unfortunatehky/status/1694466233851121701
 
Nik said:
cw said:
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

This is what I keep coming back to. A guy in Matthews' position basically gets to call his own shot. If he decided he wanted 4 years and the Leafs wanted more, what's the negotiating tactic there?

"Sign for 8 years"

"Nah"

"Ok, then we won't give you the money you want"

"Ok, I'll get it somewhere else"

Matthews would know the Leafs would never call the bluff of actually letting him walk so he could basically write his own contract. Even if you're of the opinion that an 8 year deal is better than a 4 year deal for the Leafs, and I still can't wrap my head around that one, there's no arm to twist here. Matthews would have been the most sought after UFA in the history of the NHL.

Easy.  Give him more money to secure him for more years.  As much as I think this money should be tops to give him on an 8-year deal, if they needed to give him upwards of a million more to get it done, I'd do it.
 
herman said:
Guilt Trip said:
bustaheims said:
Longer would have been better, but this still a very good deal.
And if his play drops off after he turns 30 it would suck. Leafs get Matthews for his prime years. If we don't succeed in another 5 years it's time to pull the plug anyway.

Unless McDavid signs here as a UFA for el cheapo
That would be hilarious to have him and Matthews together in 3 years.
 
Peter D. said:
Nik said:
cw said:
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

This is what I keep coming back to. A guy in Matthews' position basically gets to call his own shot. If he decided he wanted 4 years and the Leafs wanted more, what's the negotiating tactic there?

"Sign for 8 years"

"Nah"

"Ok, then we won't give you the money you want"

"Ok, I'll get it somewhere else"

Matthews would know the Leafs would never call the bluff of actually letting him walk so he could basically write his own contract. Even if you're of the opinion that an 8 year deal is better than a 4 year deal for the Leafs, and I still can't wrap my head around that one, there's no arm to twist here. Matthews would have been the most sought after UFA in the history of the NHL.

Easy.  Give him more money to secure him for more years.  As much as I think this money should be tops to give him on an 8-year deal, if they needed to give him upwards of a million more to get it done, I'd do it.

It's easy when you make up terms that Matthews would accept.
 
Deebo said:
Peter D. said:
Nik said:
cw said:
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

This is what I keep coming back to. A guy in Matthews' position basically gets to call his own shot. If he decided he wanted 4 years and the Leafs wanted more, what's the negotiating tactic there?

"Sign for 8 years"

"Nah"

"Ok, then we won't give you the money you want"

"Ok, I'll get it somewhere else"

Matthews would know the Leafs would never call the bluff of actually letting him walk so he could basically write his own contract. Even if you're of the opinion that an 8 year deal is better than a 4 year deal for the Leafs, and I still can't wrap my head around that one, there's no arm to twist here. Matthews would have been the most sought after UFA in the history of the NHL.

Easy.  Give him more money to secure him for more years.  As much as I think this money should be tops to give him on an 8-year deal, if they needed to give him upwards of a million more to get it done, I'd do it.

It's easy when you make up terms that Matthews would accept.

Fully expect him to look for and sign a 3-year deal max when he turns 30 and on the decline.
 
Peter D. said:
Easy.  Give him more money to secure him for more years.  As much as I think this money should be tops to give him on an 8-year deal, if they needed to give him upwards of a million more to get it done, I'd do it.

Ok but, again, what if he says no to that? And, considering the reports are that the Leafs wanted the longer term and he didn't, it seems pretty likely that just an extra million per probably wouldn't have swayed him for 4 extra years.

If the Leafs did want the eight years they would have presented the option to Matthews' camp and his agent either A) would have told them a number that's so high that the Leafs(and by what you wrote probably you also) wouldn't have agreed or B) just refused and said he was only interested in a 4 year deal.

Matthews really held all the cards here.
 
Drain's analysis on MLHS is pretty defensive in tone, aiming at people who think he should have done 7 or 8 because pretty much everyone else in his elite tier has so far.  The term doesn't matter much to me.  As Drain says, and several of you have, the key point is you are getting Matthews through the entirety of his prime.  Somewhere there's an analysis that shows forwards declining at about age 27 or something.  We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.
 
Nik said:
cw said:
If he held out to become a UFA, I'm pretty sure he would have got more from the winning bid.

This is what I keep coming back to. A guy in Matthews' position basically gets to call his own shot. If he decided he wanted 4 years and the Leafs wanted more, what's the negotiating tactic there?

"Sign for 8 years"

"Nah"

"Ok, then we won't give you the money you want"

"Ok, I'll get it somewhere else"

Matthews would know the Leafs would never call the bluff of actually letting him walk so he could basically write his own contract. Even if you're of the opinion that an 8 year deal is better than a 4 year deal for the Leafs, and I still can't wrap my head around that one, there's no arm to twist here. Matthews would have been the most sought after UFA in the history of the NHL.

Yes to this.  If Matthews demanded a 3-year 15 million/year contract, the leafs wouldn?t wind up a better team by walking away. The contract is slightly better than I expected.
 
Nik said:
Peter D. said:
Easy.  Give him more money to secure him for more years.  As much as I think this money should be tops to give him on an 8-year deal, if they needed to give him upwards of a million more to get it done, I'd do it.

Ok but, again, what if he says no to that? And, considering the reports are that the Leafs wanted the longer term and he didn't, it seems pretty likely that just an extra million per probably wouldn't have swayed him for 4 extra years.

If the Leafs did want the eight years they would have presented the option to Matthews' camp and his agent either A) would have told them a number that's so high that the Leafs(and by what you wrote probably you also) wouldn't have agreed or B) just refused and said he was only interested in a 4 year deal.

Matthews really held all the cards here.

A 4-year deal is preferable for me than an 8-year 16-million/year deal (for example).
 
An 8-year deal likely comes in at something like $16mil AAV. I'll take that extra $3mil in cap space during Matthews' (and hopefully Marner and Nylander's) prime and worry about what his cap hit will be in the 28/29 season when the time comes.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

It's a minor point but it's actually 18-30. And, in Matthews' particular case, it's really more like 19-31. The years the Leafs won't have Matthews under contract vs. an 8 year deal are solidly in his 30's.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Drain's analysis on MLHS is pretty defensive in tone, aiming at people who think he should have done 7 or 8 because pretty much everyone else in his elite tier has so far.  The term doesn't matter much to me.  As Drain says, and several of you have, the key point is you are getting Matthews through the entirety of his prime.  Somewhere there's an analysis that shows forwards declining at about age 27 or something.  We'll have had 34 from 18 through 29.  I am perfectly content to cross whatever bridge comes after that.  Put me down as a very happy camper on this one.

Me too. I actually recall a graph of the peaks of the top 100 goal scorers in NHL history (this was before Matthews).  These goal scorers peaked astonishingly early. My recollection was the peak was 23-24 for goal scoring.  I think it is quite possible we have already seen Peak Matthews - at least in terms of goals/minute, though not overall effectiveness.  I hope not of course.

 
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