Auston Matthews

[mr grieves]

The crazy thing is that before the season if you'd told me he'd score 27 goals this year I'd have been pretty impressed. That's more than Stamkos, Tavares or Kane scored in their rookie seasons.

To do it in 2/3's of a season is ridiculous.

Yeah I don't think we realized how special of a player this guy was when he drafted him.  He's on pace to score more goals in one season than Kessel has ever done, and Phil is considered one of the premier snipers in the league.

He's on pace for 40, which would beat out Crosby's rookie season (39). That'd be the best rookie goal scoring in 25 years, top 5 all time.

Ovechkin had 52 his rookie year, so it wouldn't be the best in the last 25 years.  Top 5 all time:

1. Selanne:  76
2. Bossy:  53
3. Ovechkin:  52
4. Nieuwendyk:  51
5. Robitaille, Hawerchuk:  45

40 goals would put him tied for 12th all time with 3 other players.

Dang. Hockey-reference misleading me... and I remember the Ovechkin season, hearing the Selanne one celebrated on his retirement...

edit: Oh yeah, I set it to teenagers.

1. Gretzky 51
2. Hawerchuk 45
3. Lemieux 43
4. Lindros 41
5. S. Turgeon 40
6. Crosby, Yzerman 39

 

[Zee]

The crazy thing is that before the season if you'd told me he'd score 27 goals this year I'd have been pretty impressed. That's more than Stamkos, Tavares or Kane scored in their rookie seasons.

To do it in 2/3's of a season is ridiculous.

Yeah I don't think we realized how special of a player this guy was when he drafted him.  He's on pace to score more goals in one season than Kessel has ever done, and Phil is considered one of the premier snipers in the league.

He's on pace for 40, which would beat out Crosby's rookie season (39). That'd be the best rookie goal scoring in 25 years, top 5 all time.

Ovechkin had 52 his rookie year, so it wouldn't be the best in the last 25 years.  Top 5 all time:

1. Selanne:  76
2. Bossy:  53
3. Ovechkin:  52
4. Nieuwendyk:  51
5. Robitaille, Hawerchuk:  45

40 goals would put him tied for 12th all time with 3 other players.

Really hard to compare with players from different eras.  I mean Selanne scored 76, but back then scoring was nuts. 

In Selanne's rookie year, 25 players had 40 or more goals.  Last season 4 players had 40 or more goals.  Quite the difference.  If Matthews can get to 40, it's quite a remarkable feat in today's game.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Clearly everyone is upset that I stated "facts" regarding the top all-time rookie goal scorers.  I wasn't trying to downplay Matthews accomplishments so far.  What he's doing at his age, and in this era, is remarkable.  Even more remarkable is that TWO players are doing it right now. 

This might go down as one of the best rookie classes of the last 25 years- and we have three of the top six in the class.

 

[Kin]

Clearly everyone is upset that I stated "facts" regarding the top all-time rookie goal scorers. 

I don't know where you'd get that.

 

[Zee]

Clearly everyone is upset that I stated "facts" regarding the top all-time rookie goal scorers.  I wasn't trying to downplay Matthews accomplishments so far.  What he's doing at his age, and in this era, is remarkable.  Even more remarkable is that TWO players are doing it right now. 

This might go down as one of the best rookie classes of the last 25 years- and we have three of the top six in the class.

Who's upset? I was just pointing out that it's a far different brand of hockey today. What does 40 goals in today's game mean when comparing to 1992? I have no idea. I think the fact that only 4 players reached 40 goals last season, and maybe the same or less do it this season, would make Matthews rookie season as one of the best in a long while.

 

[Zee]

OK, because I'm fascinated by this "different era" stats, I went back to 1992-93 and looked at the top 10 goal scorers, added them up and divided to get the average #of goals the top 10 guys in the league produced.  That was 62.  Then I looked at the top 10 guys last year, and found out the average was 39. 

So my quick and dirty math says that 62 is about 60% more goals than 39.  So I would say that in today's game a 40 goal season might be the equivalent of 64 goals in 1992/93.  Please someone rip apart this strawman of mine if you see major issues with it.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

OK, because I'm fascinated by this "different era" stats, I went back to 1992-93 and looked at the top 10 goal scorers, added them up and divided to get the average #of goals the top 10 guys in the league produced.  That was 62.  Then I looked at the top 10 guys last year, and found out the average was 39.

Looking at 2003-04, only 3 players in the league scored more than 40 goals. They all had 41 (Kovalchuk, Iginla, Nash).

 

[mr grieves]

Clearly everyone is upset that I stated "facts" regarding the top all-time rookie goal scorers.  I wasn't trying to downplay Matthews accomplishments so far.  What he's doing at his age, and in this era, is remarkable.  Even more remarkable is that TWO players are doing it right now. 

This might go down as one of the best rookie classes of the last 25 years- and we have three of the top six in the class.

I'll admit to fault there. I misrepresented the list -- it was of rookies under 20.

Really hard to compare with players from different eras.  I mean Selanne scored 76, but back then scoring was nuts. 

In Selanne's rookie year, 25 players had 40 or more goals.  Last season 4 players had 40 or more goals.  Quite the difference.  If Matthews can get to 40, it's quite a remarkable feat in today's game.

I don't know how trustworthy it is, but hockey-reference has an era adjustment formula. It accounts for historical variability in the length of seasons, the size of rosters, and -- most important -- generally what scoring is like in the league during that season. Steve Burtch used it last month to argue that the Leafs have got Bure and Kane in Matthews and Marner (I posted link in the RoM thread)

So, here's a chart of adjusted goals for rookies in the modern era. I've figured out adjusted goal rates and ranked them that way, since Matthews and Laine are only part way through the season.

And here's what it produces for just teenaged rookies:

So... I don't know. I'd imagine that as things tighten up heading into the playoffs, rookies like Matthews and Laine will have their scoring stifled, and so doubt they'll be scoring like all-time greats. But I think what they've already done suggests odds are good they'll be the best goal scorers of the post lockout era.

 

[herman]

http://www.tsn.ca/video/if-voting-today-lawless-would-vote-for-matthews-to-win-calder-trophy~1059371

There isn't much reason to watch TSN's actual stuff these days, but this is worth it for Tessa's reaction.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/myregularface/status/831695715525066752
Auston's ability to elevate the back-hand quickly and at a bad angle reminds me of Mats. His game-winner in the Winter Classic superb. No time, no space, and on the back-hand.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/833488295338377216
The backhand again, this one falling down with his back to the net. Auston's ability to make plays from his knees or falling down is Sid/Ovi-like.

Edit: AM lets loose with a perfect WOOOOOOOO after that one, in Ric Flair's home-ground, North Carolina no less! You can totally hear it on the game-tape.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/834145315552952321
https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/834146769135136768
https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/834155542151061504

 

[sickbeast]

I think when you compare Auston Matthews and Patrick Laine, you need to consider how their respective teams are playing.  Matthews clearly makes the players around him better.  He is solid defensively.  He is exceptionally talented when it comes to puck possession.  So while Laine has a clearly better shot and perhaps also better scoring finish, Matthews is bar none the better player IMO.  It's kind of like Crosby versus Ovechkin actually.

 

[Kin]

I think after seeing what Matthews has done this year there really ought to be a moratorium on people talking about the "pressure" of playing in this market and how intimidating it can be.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/835688855386918912
Captain Matthews:

30 goals - t2nd in NHL
25 even strength goals - 2nd in NHL
13 first period goals - 1st in NHL
11 first goal of game - 1st in NHL

 

[mr grieves]

I think after seeing what Matthews has done this year there really ought to be a moratorium on people talking about the "pressure" of playing in this market and how intimidating it can be.

And -- more boldly -- that the Leafs aren't far off from where the Blackhawks were in 2007-08. The numbers are eerily similar. Our franchise center has out-produced Toews, our rookie star winger is on the same pace as Kane, our 26yo Kadri's likely to have a season very much like 26yo Patrick Sharp's, our complementary forwards are out producing theirs, Gardiner's already out-produced Keith (tho he's older, not as good... yeah defense is a problem... but Nylander too! We have a Nylander and they didn't have anything close!)

If the optimistic goal was to contend 2-3 years after bottoming out (drafting Matthews), so far, it looks like the Leafs have got the elite talent you've long lamented them not having or having a path to getting. The balance is off -- there's more at forward than on defense -- but, after seeing what the talent they've assembled has produced this year, there should be a moratorium on what a long slog of a rebuild this would be.

 

[Kin]

And -- more boldly -- that the Leafs aren't far off from where the Blackhawks were in 2007-08. The numbers are eerily similar. Our franchise center has out-produced Toews, our rookie star winger is on the same pace as Kane, our 26yo Kadri's likely to have a season very much like 26yo Patrick Sharp's, our complementary forwards are out producing theirs, Gardiner's already out-produced Keith (tho he's older, not as good... yeah defense is a problem... but Nylander too! We have a Nylander and they didn't have anything close!)

I don't know. They had a 22 year old former #4 pick who scored 12 points in 20 games that year. Willy has produced better than that, sure, but I think a 22 year old Andrew Ladd sort of counts as being within the same general vicinity.

That said they certainly seem to have that solid base of forwards down. No questions about it.

If the optimistic goal was to contend 2-3 years after bottoming out (drafting Matthews), so far, it looks like the Leafs have got the elite talent you've long lamented them not having or having a path to getting. The balance is off -- there's more at forward than on defense -- but, after seeing what the talent they've assembled has produced this year, there should be a moratorium on what a long slog of a rebuild this would be.

Absolutely. Gardiner turns into a Norris-type defenseman next year, they sign another end of year all-star team makin' defenseman in the off-season, Rielly or someone turns into Seabrook and they add a HOF winger in his prime and they are right there with them.

I'm pretty sure those changes, if you'll excuse the dip into golf terminology, are a gimme. Why even watch the shot go in?

 

[ZBBM]

Thank you Bertie  Buzzkill.

The forward comparison holds up. The defense not so much. In goal? Hmmm it's hard to say until we see The Dane really get battle tested.

 

[Redleaf]

I think after seeing what Matthews has done this year there really ought to be a moratorium on people talking about the "pressure" of playing in this market and how intimidating it can be.

Accept Matthews would be an exception to the rule.

 

[mr grieves]

Absolutely. Gardiner turns into a Norris-type defenseman next year,

Well, I already said I had doubts there.

they sign another end of year all-star team makin' defenseman in the off-season,

Well, no All Star UFAs, but Shattenkirk is pretty close. Check.

Rielly or someone turns into Seabrook

Zaitsev, I was thinking? Check.

and they add a HOF winger in his prime

Woah woah woah. Slow down.

That was after the 2008-09 season. So, after our 20017-18 season.

But Tavares will play wing. Check.

and they are right there with them.

Well, I think we have a better goalie than Chicago did for their first Cup.