Blackhawks @ Maple Leafs - Oct. 16th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[herman]

Domi scoops up a nice turnover and breaks it out and up the ice for a clean 2 on 1 with Knies.

Sheldon said take care of the puck offensively, so lemme just lay it into the corner to establish our forecheck.
Lobs it in one stride from the red line, for an icing.

 

[bustaheims]

Three games means very little but early on:

- Minten looks ready to go back to Junior hockey.
- There really isn't good natural chemistry between Bertuzzi and Matthews/Marner
- Domi looks really bad.  I'm really not seeing any good decision making out of him so far (including the preseason)
- Nylander and Matthews are easily the best two players out of the gates
- McCabe really hasn't rebounding from a terrible Florida series
- Giordano needs to stop throwing the puck on net.  It goes 10 feet wide and nowhere near a guy able to deflect his shots
- I'm sure every team does it a lot too but this seemed like a typical Leafs game.  Team the Leafs should clearly beat.  A goaltender with terrible NHL stats and the Leafs make it easy on him.

It has only been 3 games with a lot of new guys on the roster, so some chemistry/timing/accuracy issues are to be expected, but, I can't disagree with anything you've said so far.

As good as Minten looked in pre-season, things change pretty significantly once the schedule flips to the regular season. He looks overmatched right now. The potential is definitely there, but he has not arrived yet.

As for the vets, I'm not super concerned.

-Playing with world class players like Matthews and Marner can be a steep learning curve. At times, Bertuzzi looks like he can keep up, but it's been sporadic. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's trying to do too much to look good out of the gate. Hopefully, he settles down and simplifies his game. He has the skillset that line needs.

-I haven't found Domi to be super noticeable so far. A couple mistakes, sure, but, mostly, he's just taking up space. A lot of that has to do with there not being a good line for him, yet. Hopefully, they can find that, but, I'm not sold yet.

-Outside of some physical play, Reaves hasn't been great. He was consistently hemmed in against Minny, and wasn't exactly better last night. Awfully hard for him to help on the forecheck when he's constantly playing in his own end. That line as a whole hasn't been great, but Reaves has been the least effective and the least versatile.

Don't have a ton to say about the rest of the roster - they've been basically what I've expected in the early going, and once they settle in, will hopefully be able to put in a more consistent effort.

 

[cabber24]

I didn't necessarily think it was their worst game of the 3. Although the D played poorly, they were probably worse in the first 2 games. We just didn't score 5+ goals. They have to tighten things up. Brodie taking a step back last year is devastating to this team. You used to put him with anyone that was struggling and they would be fine but not anymore. For years it's felt like the Leafs have been 2 defensemen away. I would love Timothy to step up and get out of that bottom pairing.

 

[azzurri63]

Meh. Perry's 38 years old and has been doing this his whole career. He's not going to be put in his place. He's also very unlikely to fight Reaves. Why would he?

Don't expect the guy (Perry) to drop the gloves but at some point you think during a game you could rock him with a good hit, anything. Just let him know his crap isn't going to be tolerated.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I agree with pretty much everything here.  Minten was a nice training camp story, but let's get Holmberg back up and let Minten develop more in junior.

Of the new guys, Domi has been particularly bad.

Holmberg at 3C still feels like a plan C or D to me. I just don't think he's enough of a "guy" to drive a 3rd line.

And while I agree Domi hasn't been great, maybe even bad, he'd be my next pick to try at centre. The best 2 years of his career have come with him playing in the middle. May as well try playing him to his strengths. Do something like:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann/Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Obviously the middle LWers can get swapped. Jarnkrok moves up when defending leads and such. If McMann/Robertson isn't good enough on the wing look at Kane or Puljujarvi signing in the near future if possible.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I agree with pretty much everything here.  Minten was a nice training camp story, but let's get Holmberg back up and let Minten develop more in junior.

Of the new guys, Domi has been particularly bad.

Holmberg at 3C still feels like a plan C or D to me. I just don't think he's enough of a "guy" to drive a 3rd line.

And while I agree Domi hasn't been great, maybe even bad, he'd be my next pick to try at centre. The best 2 years of his career have come with him playing in the middle. May as well try playing him to his strengths. Do something like:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann/Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Obviously the middle LWers can get swapped. Jarnkrok moves up when defending leads and such. If McMann/Robertson isn't good enough on the wing look at Kane or Puljujarvi signing in the near future if possible.

Would like to see McMann get a shot in the top 9.

 

[Bender]

I agree with pretty much everything here.  Minten was a nice training camp story, but let's get Holmberg back up and let Minten develop more in junior.

Of the new guys, Domi has been particularly bad.

Holmberg at 3C still feels like a plan C or D to me. I just don't think he's enough of a "guy" to drive a 3rd line.

And while I agree Domi hasn't been great, maybe even bad, he'd be my next pick to try at centre. The best 2 years of his career have come with him playing in the middle. May as well try playing him to his strengths. Do something like:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann/Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Obviously the middle LWers can get swapped. Jarnkrok moves up when defending leads and such. If McMann/Robertson isn't good enough on the wing look at Kane or Puljujarvi signing in the near future if possible.

Sounds reasonable for now. Still don't like McMann or Robertson that high in the lineup. This team will definitely look different before the season is over.

 

[dappleganger]

I agree with pretty much everything here.  Minten was a nice training camp story, but let's get Holmberg back up and let Minten develop more in junior.

Of the new guys, Domi has been particularly bad.

Holmberg at 3C still feels like a plan C or D to me. I just don't think he's enough of a "guy" to drive a 3rd line.

And while I agree Domi hasn't been great, maybe even bad, he'd be my next pick to try at centre. The best 2 years of his career have come with him playing in the middle. May as well try playing him to his strengths. Do something like:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann/Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Obviously the middle LWers can get swapped. Jarnkrok moves up when defending leads and such. If McMann/Robertson isn't good enough on the wing look at Kane or Puljujarvi signing in the near future if possible.

This was exactly what I'm thinking. Let Domi earn his keep on a sheltered third line at center. I'm think Nicky R for sure, swap Knies and Robertson 2nd/3rd lines as applicable. McMann next up.

 

[rdowdall]

I agree with pretty much everything here.  Minten was a nice training camp story, but let's get Holmberg back up and let Minten develop more in junior.

Of the new guys, Domi has been particularly bad.

Holmberg at 3C still feels like a plan C or D to me. I just don't think he's enough of a "guy" to drive a 3rd line.

And while I agree Domi hasn't been great, maybe even bad, he'd be my next pick to try at centre. The best 2 years of his career have come with him playing in the middle. May as well try playing him to his strengths. Do something like:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
McMann/Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Domi-Jarnkrok
Gregor-Kampf-Reaves

Obviously the middle LWers can get swapped. Jarnkrok moves up when defending leads and such. If McMann/Robertson isn't good enough on the wing look at Kane or Puljujarvi signing in the near future if possible.

This was exactly what I'm thinking. Let Domi earn his keep on a sheltered third line at center. I'm think Nicky R for sure, swap Knies and Robertson 2nd/3rd lines as applicable. McMann next up.

Maybe have Jarnkrok at center and Domi on the wing.  If defense is his problem then it might make more sense to have him in a position with less defensive responsibility.

 

[dappleganger]

Maybe have Jarnkrok at center and Domi on the wing.  If defense is his problem then it might make more sense to have him in a position with less defensive responsibility.

I don't disagree with this but I want to see what the Leafs have with Domi at C.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This was exactly what I'm thinking. Let Domi earn his keep on a sheltered third line at center. I'm think Nicky R for sure, swap Knies and Robertson 2nd/3rd lines as applicable. McMann next up.

I lean more toward McMann mostly just because the team has enough players in the line-up who aren't particularly strong on the defensive end. McMann ain't exactly a shutdown forward but he has more two-way ability than Robertson does.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

-Outside of some physical play, Reaves hasn't been great. He was consistently hemmed in against Minny, and wasn't exactly better last night. Awfully hard for him to help on the forecheck when he's constantly playing in his own end. That line as a whole hasn't been great, but Reaves has been the least effective and the least versatile.

Honestly the concern here isn't even really with Reaves' play specifically. I mean the entire team knew what they were and weren't getting in signing a player like him and were still comfortable offering him his contract. He's doing exactly what he was signed for. The bigger problem is how playing Reaves and Kampf together has completely nerfed most of the value Kampf can bring to the team at 5-on-5.

Over his first 2 seasons as a Leaf Kampf lead all forwards in defensive zone starts by a country mile, and had one of the lowest offensive zone start percentages in the entire league at just 25.7%. Last night against Chicago Kampf took just 1 defensive zone draw at 5-on-5, and 4 in the offensive zone. One of those offensive zone draws was a possession loss and Chicago promptly went up the ice and scored. Through 3 games so far he's dead last on the team in defensive zone starts, and has the highest offensive zone start percentage on the team at 66.7%.

Kampf at $2.4mil when he's taking almost every defensive zone draw and providing defensive value by taking a tough match-up here and there is tolerable. Kampf at $2.4mil when his line can't do any of those things is a complete waste of money. So it'll be interesting to see if this early season trend continues or if Keefe adjusts his usage at some point.

 

[rdowdall]

-Outside of some physical play, Reaves hasn't been great. He was consistently hemmed in against Minny, and wasn't exactly better last night. Awfully hard for him to help on the forecheck when he's constantly playing in his own end. That line as a whole hasn't been great, but Reaves has been the least effective and the least versatile.

Honestly the concern here isn't even really with Reaves' play specifically. I mean the entire team knew what they were and weren't getting in signing a player like him and were still comfortable offering him his contract. He's doing exactly what he was signed for. The bigger problem is how playing Reaves and Kampf together has completely nerfed most of the value Kampf can bring to the team at 5-on-5.

Over his first 2 seasons as a Leaf Kampf lead all forwards in defensive zone starts by a country mile, and had one of the lowest offensive zone start percentages in the entire league at just 25.7%. Last night against Chicago Kampf took just 1 defensive zone draw at 5-on-5, and 4 in the offensive zone. One of those offensive zone draws was a possession loss and Chicago promptly went up the ice and scored. Through 3 games so far he's dead last on the team in defensive zone starts, and has the highest offensive zone start percentage on the team at 66.7%.

Kampf at $2.4mil when he's taking almost every defensive zone draw and providing defensive value by taking a tough match-up here and there is tolerable. Kampf at $2.4mil when his line can't do any of those things is a complete waste of money. So it'll be interesting to see if this early season trend continues or if Keefe adjusts his usage at some point.

So maybe the fourth line becomes Robertson/McMann - Domi - Reaves and the third line has Kampf and Jarnkrok on it.

 

[rdowdall]

Maybe have Jarnkrok at center and Domi on the wing.  If defense is his problem then it might make more sense to have him in a position with less defensive responsibility.

I don't disagree with this but I want to see what the Leafs have with Domi at C.

That's fair, and if the Leafs took a total hockey approach to playing in the defensive zone then it could just be the first forward back in the defensive zone could be the defensive C.

Someone just needs to get Keefe some BBQ sauce

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So maybe the fourth line becomes Robertson/McMann - Domi - Reaves and the third line has Kampf and Jarnkrok on it.

I did wonder if that could be a possibility, yeah. Obviously, not the greatest use of Domi's $3mil but if you run that with maybe Nylander taking a shift in Reaves place here and there it could be a good way to spread out the line-up.

Alternatively moving Kampf up could also make 11-7 more of a likliehood:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Kampf-Jarnkrok
Gregor/McMann/Robertson/Holmberg-Reaves

That leaves lots of potential C's who can take a shift with the 4th line, including all 3 players on L2.

 

[rdowdall]

So maybe the fourth line becomes Robertson/McMann - Domi - Reaves and the third line has Kampf and Jarnkrok on it.

I did wonder if that could be a possibility, yeah. Obviously, not the greatest use of Domi's $3mil but if you run that with maybe Nylander taking a shift in Reaves place here and there it could be a good way to spread out the line-up.

Alternatively moving Kampf up could also make 11-7 more of a likliehood:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Nylander
Knies-Kampf-Jarnkrok
Gregor/McMann/Robertson/Holmberg-Reaves

That leaves lots of potential C's who can take a shift with the 4th line, including all 3 players on L2.

That would work. Or they could also do a deployment strategy of line 4 in the defensive zone has Jarnkrok on it and in the offensive zone it has Reaves.  But then Reaves is playing like 2 minutes a night.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/frankcorrado22/status/1714355681120133209
I misattributed this mishap to McCabe last night. The misstep that Knies takes is that he presses forward from the line for some reason as the puck approaches, maybe anticipating that Minten picked that pass, or maybe trying to gap up on one of the three players in his vicinity. He's a step or two behind the rest of the way and Johnson makes good on the opening.