Bozak's Future

[Kin]

I only mentioned Bernier's Mandelas as an illustration that you can't score if you don't have the puck, thus highlighting the importance of possession.

Right, and I'm pointing out that in the vast majority of goals being scored the quality of the chance matters greatly.

I agree with your assessment of Kessel. He needs the operating space and in a cycle set-up, his linemates don't really open up much room. We've seen him do it before, but more often than not, Kessel is easily bodied off the puck. Pinning him to the same personnel they used for transition offense rather than fitting him with complementary players to mitigate that flaw is showing on the scoresheet. Horachek also confirmed that Kessel is dealing with something on the injury front.

I wouldn't read too much into publicly saying Kessel has an "undisclosed" injury. Most players deal with nagging injuries through a year and they're a frequently cited reason when a player is not playing well which, in this market especially, goes hand in hand with media criticism. That's not to say it's not a factor, just that in the world of "lower body injuries" we're not dealing with certainties.

 

[herman]

I only mentioned Bernier's Mandelas as an illustration that you can't score if you don't have the puck, thus highlighting the importance of possession.

Right, and I'm pointing out that in the vast majority of goals being scored the quality of the chance matters greatly.

Touch?. I lack the imagination to quantify quality of shots readily due to the factors in play (approach speed, shot type, shot location, visibility).

Holland is a good player, time for Bozo the Zak to go.

I agree, he rode JVR and Kessel's coattails for years, parlayed that into a nice little contract...sun has set on him here. 

He simply can't be relied on to play 5 on 5 on regular basis.  His defence is brutal, and his offence isn't good enough to make up for it

Interesting to see some of the top line's stats under Horacheck vs Carlyle:

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/02/22/the-bozak-corsi-dilemma/

Bozak, Kessel & JVR CF% at 5v5tied - Carlyle vs. Horachek

                  Bozak CF%   Kessel CF%   JVR CF%
under Carlyle       38.4             41.0           39.0
under Horachek   53.6             52.0           55.0
Difference             15.2             11.0           16.0

Then why haven't they won more games under  Horacheck.  You say they are doing better but if that better doesn't result in wins; they are actually doing worse.

This  metric  doesn't take into account the goaltending the team is receiving. They merely show that this line tends to have the puck more under Horachek than under Carlyle. Over a longer period of time, that would result in more goals.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Holland is a good player, time for Bozo the Zak to go.

I agree, he rode JVR and Kessel's coattails for years, parlayed that into a nice little contract...sun has set on him here. 

He simply can't be relied on to play 5 on 5 on regular basis.  His defence is brutal, and his offence isn't good enough to make up for it

Interesting to see some of the top line's stats under Horacheck vs Carlyle:

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/02/22/the-bozak-corsi-dilemma/

Bozak, Kessel & JVR CF% at 5v5tied - Carlyle vs. Horachek

                  Bozak CF%   Kessel CF%   JVR CF%
under Carlyle       38.4             41.0           39.0
under Horachek   53.6             52.0           55.0
Difference             15.2             11.0           16.0

Then why haven't they won more games under  Horacheck.  You say they are doing better but if that better doesn't result in wins; they are actually doing worse.

It's probably a number of things.  I think, like busta said, these numbers show that coaching really can have an effect on how the team performs.  The numbers above are promising.  But there are other things that aren't going so well.  I'm going off memory, so please forgive me if my notes are off.

Goaltending - I don't believe it has been very good since Horachek took over.
PDO - which I believe is basically an indicator of luck has been below average
Shooting % - I believe has also been down for the average

I'm not sure how much a coach can help with goal tending, and the way things are going it probably has a lot to do with confidence.  PDO and shooting % will likely come back to where you would expect, but I'm not sure that will translate to wins with the trade deadline so near and some offensive players likely being moved.

I think Chris is on to something too.  Carlyle always wanted to play dump and chase, and tried for a while to do so with a fairly soft lineup.  Horachek is doing things differently, but I don't really think this lineup is built for what seems to be asking for:  playing hard defensively, back-checking, cycling and going to the net.  The Leaf's top line doesn't really do any of that.  In fact, the only guys that play the style that's needed seem to be Polak, Holzer, Winnik, Komarov, and maybe Holland and Panik to some degree.

I think Horachek has implemented a system that's going to be successful in the long run, he's just not got the players (or opportunity) to do anything.

 

[Chris]

Horachek is doing things differently, but I don't really think this lineup is built for what seems to be asking for:  playing hard defensively, back-checking, cycling and going to the net.  The Leaf's top line doesn't really do any of that.  In fact, the only guys that play the style that's needed seem to be Polak, Holzer, Winnik, Komarov, and maybe Holland and Panik to some degree.

I think Horachek has implemented a system that's going to be successful in the long run, he's just not got the players (or opportunity) to do anything.

A similar discussion came up in another thread and I caught some flak for commenting that perhaps Kessel would work better with someone like Santorelli, Holland, or Booth on his line (replacing one of Bozak or JVR) because those players seem better at controlling/retrieving pucks from the corners. No one on that top line has much of that ability and it's rare that they win a puck battle. This results in many one-and-done offensive forays.

 

[Leaflifer]

Then why haven't they won more games under  Horacheck.  You say they are doing better but if that better doesn't result in wins; they are actually doing worse.

Can't help but feel the same way. There's always  "other metrics".

I have a hard time with MoneyPuck Hockey and don't feel comforted by the fact the Leafs are buying into it. I would think that if it were that easy hockey would be bigger with the gambling crowd.

 

[Al14]

Holland is a good player, time for Bozo the Zak to go.

I agree, he rode JVR and Kessel's coattails for years, parlayed that into a nice little contract...sun has set on him here. 

He simply can't be relied on to play 5 on 5 on regular basis.  His defence is brutal, and his offence isn't good enough to make up for it

Time for Kessel and Bozak to go. Jvr is the only one on that line  that should stay.

If we get a solid offer for JvR, I think we should trade him too.  He's not done much since Jan. 1st either.  He has the same disease as the rest of this core IMHO.