Carlyle Extended/Randy's Revenge

[LuncheonMeat]

The Clarkson signing was bad, but Nonis isn't forcing Carlyle to make Clarkson a fixture on the second unit power play. I'd give Carlyle the boot before Nonis.

Honestly, at this point, I'd give them both the boot at the same time. Carlyle for obvious reasons, and Nonis for not canning Carlyle when he had numerous chances, the Clarkson atrocity, the attempted Bolland atrocity and the lack of much in the way of positive moves under his guidance.

I say keep them and let the Leafs finish as low in the standings as possible. Hopefully with a little luck and a lottery win they end up with a great draft pick. You can then fire tweedle dee and tweedle dum.

No way - fire them and start trading everything you can (Reilly and Nylander are my only "untouchables").  Really bottom it out in every way possible while racking up picks/prospects.

If the Leafs are way out of it by the trade deadline I can see a fire sale to contenders.  There are tons of teams who would love a Kessel/JVR to augment their scoring.  Not sure about anyone else like Phaneuf, Clarkson is basically untradeable, Lupul is a get nothing back type of deal because of his injury problems.  I guess Gardiner and Kadri will still fetch something decent.  Honestly I'd keep Rielly, Nylander and Bernier but good luck getting teams to take the other players I mentioned without baggage coming back to the Leafs.

It seems as though Kadri is starting to round out his game, so I would think twice about moving him.  I would also be sad to see JVR go, but otherwise I'm with you.

 

[Zee]

The fact they continue to get out shot is a systems thing pure and simple. There's no way the Leafs should be that bad at team defense with the roster they have. This problem with shots against / possession only began when Carlyle came onboard.

Not only that, but, Carlyle's Ducks had the exact same issues in his final seasons there, and they were almost instantly improved when Boudreau took over. There's one common link here, and it's not the players on the roster or the guys negotiating the trades and contracts.

Yeah, I'm not a stats guy at all but something doesn't add up with Carlyle.  Either the players can't play the way he wants or they don't want to. I can't imagine he thinks getting outplayed and out shot every game is a good thing.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

mirtle: Leafs have won 91 of 188 games under Carlyle. Only 78 wins in regulation or overtime. Outshot by 1,245 and 43.9% possession.

Terrible.

I like how Mirtle framed it to appear like Carlyle is the sole reason for that record. Is he a friend of yours? :

Yeah how awful of him to present the Leafs' results while Carlyle has been coach.  With other coaches league-wide their results are presented with smileys and other emoticons.

How has he "framed" anything in that tweet?  He presents what the Leafs' record is while Carlyle has been coach, what their possession has been and by how much they've been outshot.  The numbers are what they are - these are the numbers while he's been coach.

You're free to take them however you want.  Literally nowhere in that tweet does he say anything about Carlyle being the sole reason for it, nor does he even mention a reason.

Well, though I happen to think that RC is the main reason for those stats by mentioning his name alone Mirtle makes a strong implication that Carlyle is the fault whether he intended that or not. After all he could have tweeted, say, the record while
Phaneuf was captain, leading folks to draw that conclusion.

He tracks all sorts of things that come out in his columns - he's had recent and past columns on the Leafs record under Carlyle.  I'm sure he did the same for Wilson.  About an hour before that he posted something about Kessel/JVR/Bozak/Phaneuf leading the league in shots against since December 1.

He doesn't go after just one person or player.  It's Twitter, there's 140ish characters, it gets painted in broad strokes.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, I'm not a stats guy at all but something doesn't add up with Carlyle.  Either the players can't play the way he wants or they don't want to. I can't imagine he thinks getting outplayed and out shot every game is a good thing.

I don't feel like it's them not being able or willing to play how he wants them to. I think they are playing his systems, and it's more that they're outdated and no longer a method teams can use to find success. He's struggled to adapt over the years, and the changes he has made seem to be more about tweaking his failing systems more than anything else. The heart of what he's trying to do doesn't work anymore, and he hasn't come to terms with it. It happens sometimes. When you have some success with something, like Carlyle did early in his coaching career, you can develop tunnel vision and struggle to get away from it. He's in a rut from a tactics POV, and he can't seem to get himself out of it.

 

[AvroArrow]

It seems as though Kadri is starting to round out his game, so I would think twice about moving him.  I would also be sad to see JVR go, but otherwise I'm with you.

I certainly wouldn't be unhappy if both Kadri and JvR were held on to, but realistically, I don't expect a rebuild to be completed in time for them to still be a part of contention, so I think what they can bring back would be more valuable.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

The talent argument just isn't washing anymore. Just look at the talent disparity in the WJHC. Denmark was no match for Canada but they could at least organize a breakout play. The Leafs look like a peewee house league team against even the worst ranked teams in the league. Put aside statistics for 2 seconds and just watch the game. Watch the other team. Look at how organized they look compared to the Leafs. The players have just flat out stopped listening to the coaching staff and it's probably because what he's asking them to do is straight up BS. I'm sure Randy is a super swell guy but he's a lousy coach and he needs to go. Improving the talent of a team with a broken system is like bailing a sinking boat with a spoon. It'll work for a bit, but she's still gonna sink.

I know it's not the point you're making but Denmark lost 8-0 right?

Breakout passes are good and all but are a bit superfluous if you get killed.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Breakout passes are good and all but are a bit superfluous if you get killed.

Well obviously it's not going to make a big difference if the skill disparity is that of Canada-Denmark.  You have to still have enough skill in your lineup to do something with the breakout passes or whatever else.  But it's all a part of it.

 

[Kin]

I know it's not the point you're making but Denmark lost 8-0 right?

Breakout passes are good and all but are a bit superfluous if you get killed.

But I think most would say that losing 8-0 is a reflection of the talent disparity there and given that Denmark actually played about as well as could be expected. The theory goes that the Leafs are not playing as well as their talent would dictate and the resulting gap can be attributed to Carlyle and his "system".

 

[ZBBM]

mirtle: Leafs have won 91 of 188 games under Carlyle. Only 78 wins in regulation or overtime. Outshot by 1,245 and 43.9% possession.

Terrible.

I like how Mirtle framed it to appear like Carlyle is the sole reason for that record. Is he a friend of yours? :

Yeah how awful of him to present the Leafs' results while Carlyle has been coach.  With other coaches league-wide their results are presented with smileys and other emoticons.

How has he "framed" anything in that tweet?  He presents what the Leafs' record is while Carlyle has been coach, what their possession has been and by how much they've been outshot.  The numbers are what they are - these are the numbers while he's been coach.

You're free to take them however you want.  Literally nowhere in that tweet does he say anything about Carlyle being the sole reason for it, nor does he even mention a reason.

Well, though I happen to think that RC is the main reason for those stats by mentioning his name alone Mirtle makes a strong implication that Carlyle is the fault whether he intended that or not. After all he could have tweeted, say, the record while
Phaneuf was captain, leading folks to draw that conclusion.

He tracks all sorts of things that come out in his columns - he's had recent and past columns on the Leafs record under Carlyle.  I'm sure he did the same for Wilson.  About an hour before that he posted something about Kessel/JVR/Bozak/Phaneuf leading the league in shots against since December 1.

He doesn't go after just one person or player.  It's Twitter, there's 140ish characters, it gets painted in broad strokes.

Fair enough.  I still think that you'd have to be aware of the implication.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I mean, let's be serious, we all know where Mirtle stands on the Randy debate. He obviously does think that a lot of the teams problems are related to coaching/systems.

 

[bustaheims]

I mean, let's be serious, we all know where Mirtle stands on the Randy debate. He obviously does think that a lot of the teams problems are related to coaching/systems.

That's true, but, he's also been pretty clear in stating that he thinks there's also a pretty significant talent issue with the roster. He, like many of us here, feel that moving on from Carlyle is an important 1st step in fixing things, but not the end-all-and-be-all, like some people are trying to suggest.

 

[lamajama]

A couple points. I remember the summer of the Clarkson signing and Nonis commenting "he was getting the guys RC wanted". How's that working out...

I dismiss Anaheim almost completely as you had 2 of the best defence men in a generation, as well as goaltending along with Getzlaff Perry et al...

This team has been significantly turned over continually yet the "analytics" numbers still stink.  So unless all these new players all collectively forgot how to be responsible, it's RC's system that is the problem.

 

[Kin]

I dismiss Anaheim almost completely as you had 2 of the best defence men in a generation, as well as goaltending along with Getzlaff Perry et al...

As opposed to all of the coaches who won Stanley Cups with lousy teams? The Ducks were not a particularly talented team among Cup winners.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A non-Mirtle look at the teams possession problems:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/01/04/maple_leafs_possession_regression_raises_carlyle_questions_feschuk.html

Includes quotes from Carlyle like:

?You don?t always have the luxury to say that you?d like this player or that player or this type of player. That?s not the way it works,? Carlyle said. ?How it works is you have an organization that provides you with players, and our job, as we?ve said all along, is just to coach ?em up.?

...

?We?ve been trying and preaching and begging, coddling, kicking ? doing whatever you have to do to get more people back in the puck recovery zone,? he said.

 

[Rebel_1812]

I'll reiterate my prediction in the GDT: tonight was Carlyle's last game as coach.  He'll be fired tomorrow or Monday.  Why?

1.  Particularly embarrassing loss
2.  Win streak now shown to be mirage
3.  MTL gains first place while we teeter on brink of falling out of playoffs
4.  Going back home, and 3 days before next game
5.  Ex-head coach on staff to keep seat warm rest of season

All these make it easier for Shanahan to pull the trigger.  He then can see what Phaneuf, Kessel, and other lightning rods do under new management, and can reassess whether the core really is as flawed as many of us think it is.

I predict it wasn't his last as coach.  Based on them firing his assistants but keeping him as coach suggests they didn't see any better coaches this past summer and want to wait to next summer before making any big decisions.

 

[bustaheims]

I predict it wasn't his last as coach.  Based on them firing his assistants but keeping him as coach suggests they didn't see any better coaches this past summer and want to wait to next summer before making any big decisions.

Or, you know, positions and opinions could have changed over the last 6 months, especially considering almost the entire front office has been replaced since the decision to retain Carlyle was made. The people that didn't see any better coaches available are now largely no longer part of the organization, and, really, the last one of that group who really voiced that opinion last April could also easily be finding himself without a position in the near future.

 

[Kin]

I predict it wasn't his last as coach.  Based on them firing his assistants but keeping him as coach suggests they didn't see any better coaches this past summer and want to wait to next summer before making any big decisions.

Or, you know, positions and opinions could have changed over the last 6 months, especially considering almost the entire front office has been replaced since the decision to retain Carlyle was made.

Also, I think you have to acknowledge at this point that regardless of how you feel about the analytics, Carlyle isn't getting a ton out of this group. Thinking that a change should be made can be argued from just about any angle right now and because of the divide between the "This is Carlyle's fault" and "This is a result of the players on the team" there's actually a real value in making a coaching change right now and getting a few solid months out of seeing whether or not the core should be kept together and given a chance under a new coach or whether or not this summer should result in a complete tear down.

Although with that said I have fairly deep reservations that any coach could come in and flip a switch right now.

 

[Redleaf]

I predict it wasn't his last as coach.  Based on them firing his assistants but keeping him as coach suggests they didn't see any better coaches this past summer and want to wait to next summer before making any big decisions.

Or, you know, positions and opinions could have changed over the last 6 months, especially considering almost the entire front office has been replaced since the decision to retain Carlyle was made.

Also, I think you have to acknowledge at this point that regardless of how you feel about the analytics, Carlyle isn't getting a ton out of this group. Thinking that a change should be made can be argued from just about any angle right now and because of the divide between the "This is Carlyle's fault" and "This is a result of the players on the team" there's actually a real value in making a coaching change right now and getting a few solid months out of seeing whether or not the core should be kept together and given a chance under a new coach or whether or not this summer should result in a complete tear down.

Although with that said I have fairly deep reservations that any coach could come in and flip a switch right now.

Agreed 100%

 

[bustaheims]

Although with that said I have fairly deep reservations that any coach could come in and flip a switch right now.

There's probably some truth in that, but, I don't think too many people are expecting that. Give the team a look with an interim coach with a different perspective for half the season, and I feel like that will give the front office a good opportunity to get a more accurate gauge on what they have in terms of the guys on the ice. Obviously, we'd be unlikely to see an instant reversal (though, the Ducks saw a pretty significant swing pretty quickly, so, it's not impossible), but, it should provide enough information to make a coaching neutral evaluation.

 

[Redleaf]

Although with that said I have fairly deep reservations that any coach could come in and flip a switch right now.

There's probably some truth in that, but, I don't think too many people are expecting that. Give the team a look with an interim coach with a different perspective for half the season, and I feel like that will give the front office a good opportunity to get a more accurate gauge on what they have in terms of the guys on the ice. Obviously, we'd be unlikely to see an instant reversal (though, the Ducks saw a pretty significant swing pretty quickly, so, it's not impossible), but, it should provide enough information to make a coaching neutral evaluation.

Or, if it's all Carlyle's system, why not let him finish out the year and pick up someone like McDavid at season's end? I think they have a pretty good indication of what they have for 'guys on the ice'. An interm coach isn't going to reveal any secrets with this team.