Contracts for the Big-3

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.

This is true. I never thought of Bozak and JVR.

 

[Bullfrog]

The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

If Dubas and Shanahan are that easily offended by a player being firm on getting what he feels is proper value, they're in the wrong business. We're talking about a 7-8 year deal; a couple of months isn't going to change much at all.

As a fan, I'm not sure why you're drawing such a hard line in the sand.

 

[Zee]

I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.

It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.

 

[Bill_Berg]

The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

If Dubas and Shanahan are that easily offended by a player being firm on getting what he feels is proper value, they're in the wrong business. We're talking about a 7-8 year deal; a couple of months isn't going to change much at all.

As a fan, I'm not sure why you're drawing such a hard line in the sand.

Although a couple months = this entire season since he can't play this season if he doesn't sign by Dec 1. If they can't agree to something by then, I could see them trading Nylander. Assuming they can get something close to his value, which they may not.

 

[Kin]

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.

It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.
[/quote]

I don't have a crystal ball but I feel very confident in saying the Leafs wouldn't get a very good return for a midseason trade of a player who's only available because he's refusing to budge from contract demands the Leafs seem to feel he's not worth.

Besides, if you were a team who really wanted Nylander why in the world would you offer the Leafs more than whatever the compensation would be for signing Nylander to a five year deal at the money he wanted?

 

[dappleganger]

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.

It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.

I don't have a crystal ball but I feel very confident in saying the Leafs wouldn't get a very good return for a midseason trade of a player who's only available because he's refusing to budge from contract demands the Leafs seem to feel he's not worth.

Besides, if you were a team who really wanted Nylander why in the world would you offer the Leafs more than whatever the compensation would be for signing Nylander to a five year deal at the money he wanted?

1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

 

[Kin]

1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

Bad would be a nice way to describe that.

 

[Bullfrog]

Yes, that would definitely be a bad return for a player arguably worth $7-8M a year.

 

[rdowdall]

1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

That's what Tomas Tatar got. 

 

[ZBBM]

Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude : :, or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.

 

[Kin]

Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude : :, or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.

What, you don't think a billion dollar business should be run purely on spite?

I think there are some people who think that if Nylander holds firm on his contract demands that the team should trade him for pennies on the dollar so it sends a message to the rest of their players.

To their credit, I think it would. The problem is that message would be "We don't really care about winning".

 

[dappleganger]

1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

Bad would be a nice way to describe that.

I think it wholly depends on where the picks are.

If it's top 7, there's some benefit to that. This team is going to need young assets going forward to offset the larger contracts coming up soon.

How much of a detriment is it overpaying a player worth $6.5m at current market rates?

 

[ZBBM]

Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude : :, or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.

What, you don't think a billion dollar business should be run purely on spite?

I think there are some people who think that if Nylander holds firm on his contract demands that the team should trade him for pennies on the dollar so it sends a message to the rest of their players.

To their credit, I think it would. The problem is that message would be "We don't really care about winning".

Bingo.

And if people need an outlet for their angst, they should be worrying about how we are going to be able to keep Kapanen.

 

[Kin]

I think it wholly depends on where the picks are.

So, in other words, whether or not it's a good trade depends entirely on something the Leafs can't possibly know when they make the trade? That doesn't sound like a terrific strategy for prudent decision making.

If it's top 7, there's some benefit to that. This team is going to need young assets going forward to offset the larger contracts coming up soon.

How much of a detriment is it overpaying a player worth $6.5m at current market rates?

Well, for starters, I don't think that's true in terms of Nylander's value.

But more to the point what's the real end game there? Even if you hit on the pick and get someone as good as Nylander then in 3-4 years, when Tavares is probably reaching the end of his peak, the Leafs might be as good as they'd be now if they just signed Nylander? And that's better than maybe giving Nylander a million or so more than you might like?

 

[sickbeast]

How is it a first, a second, and a third for Nylander?  I thought the rules stated that we would have to get four first round picks as compensation?

I would take the four first rounders for Nylander in a heartbeat.  That gives the Leafs four super cheap and useful players when they are tight up against the cap.  They are doing just fine without Nylander thus far.  Kapanen looked dynamite with Matthews last night.

 

[Zee]

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.
It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.

I don't have a crystal ball but I feel very confident in saying the Leafs wouldn't get a very good return for a midseason trade of a player who's only available because he's refusing to budge from contract demands the Leafs seem to feel he's not worth.

Besides, if you were a team who really wanted Nylander why in the world would you offer the Leafs more than whatever the compensation would be for signing Nylander to a five year deal at the money he wanted?

Because another team might not be able to just fit Nylander into their cap situation at 8-8.5M either. Maybe they trade back someone making $4M or whatever to make room. You just don't know what kind of offer you would get. It's not like a team would just say "let's give him a 5 year $8.5M deal and we only have to give up a 1st,2nd and 3rd!"

That happens, the Leafs match, use Nylander this year and trade him in the summer for a better haul because he has a contract and you know how his cost going forward

 

[Kin]

1. The Leafs compensation is determined by the value of the contract divided by 5. So if Nylander signed an offer sheet worth 56 million, or 8 million a year over 7 years, it would average out to more than 11 million per year which would peg the compensation at 4 firsts.

If, however, Nylander signed a 40 million dollar offer sheet at 8 million for 5 years then the average is 8 at which point compensation is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

2. Even the best teams in the world don't always hit on their first round picks. Odds probably say that 4 1st round picks will yield 2-3 NHL players of any quality at all, let alone good ones.

 

[Zee]

How is it a first, a second, and a third for Nylander?  I thought the rules stated that we would have to get four first round picks as compensation?

I would take the four first rounders for Nylander in a heartbeat.  That gives the Leafs four super cheap and useful players when they are tight up against the cap.  They are doing just fine without Nylander thus far.  Kapanen looked dynamite with Matthews last night.

Depends on the value of the contract over 5 years. If a team only offers 5 years for 8M than it's 1-2-3, if it's a 7 year deal than the compensation is more cause you divide the total contract amount by 5 to get the compensation level. If that is greater than 10.2, you get 4 first rounders

 

[Kin]

It's not like a team would just say "let's give him a 5 year $8.5M deal and we only have to give up a 1st,2nd and 3rd!"

Why not? And if that team has a dynamic young player locked up for 4 million dollars long term why would they trade him for Nylander making 8 million dollars if he's not worth 8 million dollars?

That happens, the Leafs match, use Nylander this year and trade him in the summer for a better haul because he has a contract and you know how his cost going forward

So you're saying the Leafs should match a 5 year/8 million AV contract for Nylander but they shouldn't sign him to an 8 year/8 million AV contract where you get 3 bonus UFA years that will probably be the years where you get the most bang for the buck contract wise?

 

[Zee]

It's not like a team would just say "let's give him a 5 year $8.5M deal and we only have to give up a 1st,2nd and 3rd!"

Why not? And if that team has a dynamic young player locked up for 4 million dollars long term why would they trade him for Nylander making 8 million dollars if he's not worth 8 million dollars?

That happens, the Leafs match, use Nylander this year and trade him in the summer for a better haul because he has a contract and you know how his cost going forward

So you're saying the Leafs should match a 5 year/8 million AV contract for Nylander but they shouldn't sign him to an 8 year/8 million AV contract where you get 3 bonus UFA years that will probably be the years where you get the most bang for the buck contract wise?

I'm saying you don't know what the compensation would be in a trade. Given that we never see offer sheets it's far more likely a team would work out a deal for Nylander rather than attempt to sign him to an offer sheet. That's just reality. As to "why would they ever give up more than a first second and third?" , the deal could be contingent on Nylander signing a 7 year deal with the new team so they'll offer players + picks.