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Coronavirus

Manitoba going back to a full-ish lockdown:
https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1326213083929464832

Their case rates have really exploded over the last month, especially when you look at it from a per population basis:

https://twitter.com/DoctorsManitoba/status/1325909890179637248
 
Crake said:
Vancouver's being fully lock down for two weeks, Montreal has been locked down separate from Quebec before. What possible reasoning is there to not lock down the GTA at this point?

Poor governance.
 
herman said:
Crake said:
Vancouver's being fully lock down for two weeks, Montreal has been locked down separate from Quebec before. What possible reasoning is there to not lock down the GTA at this point?

Poor governance.

Also, logistically, it's much harder than those cities. It's much bigger - both in terms of population and land area. And, you also have to deal with multiple municipal bodies to enforce it, etc.

That isn't to say it's not possible, it's just more complicated.
 
bustaheims said:
Also, logistically, it's much harder than those cities. It's much bigger - both in terms of population and land area. And, you also have to deal with multiple municipal bodies to enforce it, etc.

That isn't to say it's not possible, it's just more complicated.

There are playbooks available from much more densely populated cities. Seoul, for instance, has nearly 5 times the population in a similar geographical area.

Trying to finesse the margins with what is tantamount to shrugging and incredulously yelling at the people for going to the places you've opened, and falling well short of even trying to test frequently is weak sauce. Any favour curried in the early handling of the pandemic by clearing the lowest possible bar that was the GOP 'response' is irrelevant in light of mounting evidence of incompetence.

Everyone knew the rough patch was going to come from the summer after spending the spring in lockdown to stem the initial load on ICUs.

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1326180251613982720
 
herman said:
bustaheims said:
Also, logistically, it's much harder than those cities. It's much bigger - both in terms of population and land area. And, you also have to deal with multiple municipal bodies to enforce it, etc.

That isn't to say it's not possible, it's just more complicated.

There are playbooks available from much more densely populated cities. Seoul, for instance, has nearly 5 times the population in a similar geographical area.

Trying to finesse the margins with what is tantamount to shrugging and incredulously yelling at the people for going to the places you've opened, and falling well short of even trying to test frequently is weak sauce. Any favour curried in the early handling of the pandemic by clearing the lowest possible bar that was the GOP 'response' is irrelevant in light of mounting evidence of incompetence.

Everyone knew the rough patch was going to come from the summer after spending the spring in lockdown to stem the initial load on ICUs.

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1326180251613982720
Just looking at those numbers and why it hasn't been shutdown consider this. In late April they had 999 hospitalizations, 233 in ICU and 181of them on ventilators. They were testing about 13,000 per day. Ontario on a whole is actually doing very well compared to the other "big" provinces. We all knew the numbers were going to go up as soon as they opened the schools and the cooler weather came.
I guess if the numbers in the hospitals get back to the April levels, they close stuff down really fast but they're not even close at the moment. I can't remember the docs name but I recall him saying don't just focus on the daily totals, focus on the hospital numbers.
Anyway, it's way above my pay grade. Hope everyone stays safe.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Just looking at those numbers and why it hasn't been shutdown consider this. In late April they had 999 hospitalizations, 233 in ICU and 181of them on ventilators. They were testing about 13,000 per day. Ontario on a whole is actually doing very well compared to the other "big" provinces. We all knew the numbers were going to go up as soon as they opened the schools and the cooler weather came.
I guess if the numbers in the hospitals get back to the April levels, they close stuff down really fast but they're not even close at the moment. I can't remember the docs name but I recall him saying don't just focus on the daily totals, focus on the hospital numbers.
Anyway, it's way above my pay grade. Hope everyone stays safe.

Hospitals were able to handle those spring numbers because of the suspension of all non-emergency services though. And that's something that the province probably can't afford to pause again. So comparing hospitalizations then and now isn't that straight forward.
 
This story isn't necessarily about Covid, but the conditions of LTC homes drew a lot of attention earlier this year because of it and man this story about one is tough to read:

https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/1326224168208175105

Joshua Matchett said he felt something wasn't right when he couldn't reach his father on April 11. He had called half a dozen times and checked the video camera he'd set up in the 92-year-old's long-term care room, but his father was never visible.

Late that afternoon, Matchett, who lives in Brampton, Ont., got a call from his brother telling him their father ? Traven Matchett ? had died in the bathroom of his room at Extendicare Halton Hills in Georgetown, Ont., about 50 kilometres west of Toronto.

Anxious to see his father's final moments, Matchett screened the video footage from his father's room. That's when he realized something was amiss.

From the video, Matchett said, it was clear that his father went to the bathroom at 9:51 a.m. ET.

"What really hurt was ... nobody else had come in until 4:30 p.m. that afternoon," he said.

...

In the inspection report that followed, the ministry found that the personal support worker "had documented that they had conducted hourly checks and turned and repositioned [Matchett] when video surveillance showed that staff did not check on the resident."

The report stated that according to Matchett's file, he'd eaten "76 per cent" of his lunch and his full snack despite the fact that he never exited the bathroom after 9:51 a.m.

"The resident was found unresponsive in the bathroom six hours later without staff having seen or attended to the resident," the report said.

"They quite obviously neglected my father," said Matchett.

"The investigator's report says the staff members said my father ate lunch at 11:56 in the morning and 'He was happy and cheerful' while he did. And that stuck to me because you can't be happy and cheerful if you're not breathing."
 
herman said:
There are playbooks available from much more densely populated cities. Seoul, for instance, has nearly 5 times the population in a similar geographical area.

Trying to finesse the margins with what is tantamount to shrugging and incredulously yelling at the people for going to the places you've opened, and falling well short of even trying to test frequently is weak sauce. Any favour curried in the early handling of the pandemic by clearing the lowest possible bar that was the GOP 'response' is irrelevant in light of mounting evidence of incompetence.

Everyone knew the rough patch was going to come from the summer after spending the spring in lockdown to stem the initial load on ICUs.

Oh, I'm not saying it's not possible or that better measures shouldn't be taken. Just that it's not as straightforward as a lot of other areas. Same with Seoul - it may have a larger population in a similar area, but are they dealing with the same level of fractured municipal governance? I don't know enough about South Korean governmental structures to say, but the disparate municipal governments also throw a spanner in the works here. And, while the province does technically have power over the municipalities, there's still a lot of bureaucracy that needs to be dealt with in order to effective manage and coordinate. If we were just talking about locking down the 416/647/437 area, that's one thing; but the GTA (or, really, the GTHA, if you want to be truly effective) requires more work.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Guilt Trip said:
Just looking at those numbers and why it hasn't been shutdown consider this. In late April they had 999 hospitalizations, 233 in ICU and 181of them on ventilators. They were testing about 13,000 per day. Ontario on a whole is actually doing very well compared to the other "big" provinces. We all knew the numbers were going to go up as soon as they opened the schools and the cooler weather came.
I guess if the numbers in the hospitals get back to the April levels, they close stuff down really fast but they're not even close at the moment. I can't remember the docs name but I recall him saying don't just focus on the daily totals, focus on the hospital numbers.
Anyway, it's way above my pay grade. Hope everyone stays safe.

Hospitals were able to handle those spring numbers because of the suspension of all non-emergency services though. And that's something that the province probably can't afford to pause again. So comparing hospitalizations then and now isn't that straight forward.

Keeping things open (transmission vectors) because hospitalization is low is basically Randy Carlyle's keep the shots to the outside defense. Doing nothing logistically or scientifically concrete in terms of re-opening schools reeeeaaaalllly demonstrates bold and decisive leadership.
https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1326189443187957760

bustaheims said:
And, while the province does technically have power over the municipalities, there's still a lot of bureaucracy that needs to be dealt with in order to effective manage and coordinate. If we were just talking about locking down the 416/647/437 area, that's one thing; but the GTA (or, really, the GTHA, if you want to be truly effective) requires more work.

Isn't this the guy who complained about bureaucracy and then cut down the number of city councilors of the largest municipality under his purview to 'streamline' the process? also cutting public health and child care and support for children with special needs?

I understand this is a complicated situation, but it's not like Ontario has zero resources. His actions just seem a lot like, please cities, figure it out while I maybe wring my hands a bit.

Seoul has 25 districts each run basically like individual cities; the GTA has 25 listed municipalities. East Asian countries, so close to the epicentre of the virus' origin, have the benefit of having more collectivist cultures, experience with the first SARs outbreak, and several years of preparing for the next big one.
 
herman, what's your target response here?  What's your goal?  Locking down the entire populace?

You're slinging crap around here at a whole bunch of levels of government, so what would you have them do?
 
herman said:
I understand this is a complicated situation, but it's not like Ontario has zero resources. His actions just seem a lot like, please cities, figure it out while I maybe wring my hands a bit.

Yeah, I think that's my issue. I think that if you look at places that have handled things effectively there are some strong arguments for various strategies to contain this as best as possible and the issue here is our provincial government has basically chosen none of them outside of crossing their fingers and trying to scold the public when the numbers go up.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Frank E said:
What's your goal?  Locking down the entire populace?

Would you characterize this as what Manitoba just did?

Here's what a quick Google search provided me with for Manitoba's lockdown:


Restaurants and bars

Closed ? take-out, drive-thru and delivery only
Retail businesses on the list of critical services remain open at 25 per cent capacity.

Examples of critical services include businesses related to:

maintaining supply chains;
providing retail and wholesale services including:
food or household consumer goods necessary for the safety, sanitation or operation of residences and businesses, such as grocery stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, butcher shops, bakeries, markets and hardware stores
businesses that provide personal protective equipment or protective clothing for use in the workplace
businesses that provide essential goods and services for the health and well-being of animals
gas stations and fuel companies
office supply and service businesses
computer products and related repair and maintenance services
businesses that hold a retail liquor licence, a manufacturer's licence or a retail cannabis licence
providing accommodations
providing institutional, residential, commercial and industrial maintenance
supporting telecommunications and information technology
providing transportation services
manufacturing and production
supporting agriculture and food production services
construction
finance including banks, credit unions and other financial services
natural resources services
environmental services
utilities and public works
health-care seniors care and social services
legal services and regulatory services

All other retail businesses limited to e-service, curb-side pick-up, or delivery.

Pandemic Support Announced For Businesses

Manitoba's Premier announced on Tuesday more financial support for businesses. Brian Pallister says the new Manitoba Bridge Grant will provide $5,000 upfront to busine...

Schools. No change:

Blended learning (in-class and online) for grades 9 to 12 where distancing cannot be achieved will continue as per status quo.
Kindergarten to Grade 8 students may be offered a temporary remote learning option for the duration of the Restricted level (Orange).
All other public health measures are still in effect.
Schools are advised to ensure as much physical distancing as possible (2 metres). Cohorts or remote/blended learning is required when this is not possible.

Health-care system

Where non-urgent and elective surgeries and/or procedures may be impacted, patients will be contacted directly if their scheduled appointments or procedures are affected. Patients who are not contacted should show up to their appointments as scheduled.
In-patient visitation to hospitals or health centres will be suspended, with exceptions made on a case-by-case basis for patients receiving end-of-life care, in labour and delivery, as well as in pediatrics.
Designated family caregivers may continue to visit personal care homes. General visitation may be suspended with exceptions in place for end-of-life care. General visitation to outdoor visitation shelters will be implemented, once operational.



So no, I wouldn't characterize it as locking down the entire populace.

What I'm trying to point out is that this pandemic isn't easily controlled, and that it's easy to take shots at politicians...but exactly what would herman do differently, and based on what evidence?
 
Frank E said:
So no, I wouldn't characterize it as locking down the entire populace.

What I'm trying to point out is that this pandemic isn't easily controlled, and that it's easy to take shots at politicians...but exactly what would herman do differently, and based on what evidence?

I mean I don't want to speak for herman but I imagine the answer is... what Manitoba just did. No one is saying everyone should be locked inside their homes for the next 3-6 months.
 
Well, it looks like Toronto proper is at least going this route...

https://twitter.com/KamilKaramali/status/1326270183191826439
 
We've got the anti-maskers rally here in St Thomas on Saturday with people coming from Toronto and the GTA. The locals aren't impressed.
 
WAYNEINIONA said:
We've got the anti-maskers rally here in St Thomas on Saturday with people coming from Toronto and the GTA. The locals aren't impressed.

There was a big one in Alymer last week or something, right? Moving on west I guess.
 
Bullfrog said:
Just stay the hell out of northwestern Ontario. Is that too much to ask?  :-\
That's my biggest thing right now. If they refuse to shut things down at the very least restrict movement and travel. People from Toronto should not have been allowed to go to Aylmer last week. Everybody in Port Dover is begging bikers to stay away on Friday the 13th, but you know they're going to go anyway. There needs to be huge fines to prevent travel outside of your immediate area.
 
Crake said:
Bullfrog said:
Just stay the hell out of northwestern Ontario. Is that too much to ask?  :-\
That's my biggest thing right now. If they refuse to shut things down at the very least restrict movement and travel. People from Toronto should not have been allowed to go to Aylmer last week. Everybody in Port Dover is begging bikers to stay away on Friday the 13th, but you know they're going to go anyway. There needs to be huge fines to prevent travel outside of your immediate area.

I think the problem there is that if you're not going to shut things down economically it's very difficult to shut things down socially just in terms of what that sort of thing would do to people's mental health(to say nothing of the fact that a lot of the things closed by social restrictions feed the economy).

Toronto generates a ton of tax revenue that gets spent outside of the city and the government can't keep expecting that to go on while the people in the city, who aren't getting rent breaks or being told not to work, are under the sort of pressure they've been under for months.

So while I 100% understand the desire to not see people from Toronto leaving the city right now, I think people need to realize that things are pretty tense here at the moment and there probably needs to be broader relief than just "You can't leave Toronto".
 

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