Devils @ Leafs - Nov. 8th, 7:00pm - TSN4

[cw]

Fairly wide consensus was they were a bubble team to start the season. They're still roughly that now. They're probably going to have a tough 3 games and then pick up some points in the easier 4 games after.

 

[rjd]

Fairly wide consensus was they were a bubble team to start the season. They're still roughly that now. They're probably going to have a tough 3 games and then pick up some points in the easier 4 games after.

That consensus came with the caveats that Bob played well, they stayed healthy, and Matthews and Nylander played like superstars.

2.5 of those things aren't happening right now, so I think that means they aren't a bubble team. Matthews has had a couple off games. Hopefully he's just tired. But if it's more than that, it's hard to see how this team isn't in tough. They are barely above Detroit for last in the division.

 

[cw]

That consensus came with the caveats that Bob played well, they stayed healthy, and Matthews and Nylander played like superstars.

2.5 of those things aren't happening right now, so I think that means they aren't a bubble team. Matthews has had a couple off games. Hopefully he's just tired. But if it's more than that, it's hard to see how this team isn't in tough. They are barely above Detroit for last in the division.

I don't think so
The odds makers didn't have those caveats for example
No discussion. Just odds:
ESPN Stanley Cup Odds
FanDuel Sports Odds

plus, for example ...
The Hockey News

"There's a wide range of outcomes for the Maple Leafs and a lot of it will hinge on keeping a very old defense and goaltending healthy and fresh, along with Auston Matthews' ability to be an elite goal-scorer again. Ultimately, it's still tough to say if the Maple Leafs will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline at this point."

Daily Faceoff

"The Leafs have without question the widest range of outcomes in the NHL this season. Anyone who claims to know what they’ll do is lying. It’s impossible to predict what results Chayka’s delightfully deranged chemistry experiment yields. The Leafs do look like a better team on paper year over year, with the upside to rejoin the playoff picture, but it’s tough to imagine a world in which they’re superior to the Lightning, Panthers, Canadiens, Buffalo Sabres or even the Senators in the Atlantic. The guess here: the Leafs improve to the Wildcard bubble and play meaningful games into early April but still fall short of a playoff berth. The roster construction includes a few too many gambles, as fun as they are."

The very term "Bubble team" generally implies they might make the playoffs or they might not. Some of that relates to where they finished last season. Some of that was probably due to them being one of the oldest teams in the NHL and therefore, they are a higher risk for injuries or decline. Some of that was probably due to the uncertainty of which Matthews or Tanev they were going to get. Some of that was due to the uncertainty of the goaltending, etc, etc.

To begin the season, they were not regarded as a serious contender to win a Cup. They were regarded by many as a team that might or might not make the playoffs. That is roughly about where they are right now. It will probably get a little bleaker after the next 3 games against good teams. And it will probably brighten some after the easier 4 games that follow.
Welcome to the 2026-27 Leafs rollercoaster!!

 

[Frank E]

Raddysh scores his first Leafs goal tonight and we eke out a win. That is what I say.

 

[L K]

Its certainly too early to write the team off. Injuries and personal slumps could explain some of the drop off. What I haven't liked the last few games is that there doesn't seem to be much in the way of push back for the poor outcomes. Cowan will jump guys but where have Duhaime/Blueger/McEwan/Sissons/Paul been to throw a few big hits and try and get momentum back in these games. Overall they have been useful players for other things but the bottom 6 should be able to do something to get the momentum going. McEwan has a handful of fights. But the rest of them?

Matthews got thrown around a lot by Hamilton last night. No change in response in Matthews game.

It's the same soft team.

Losing this game on its own I'm fine with. Rielly has been useful this year. Tanev shouldn't be relied on but is still important. Rifai/Blankenburg hurts the depth even more. Tavares hasn't looked good in either game so I suspect he's coming back not quite at 100% given the team slump. Nylander looked better on Saturday but his game has seemed off for a while so I wonder if he's banged up. Marchenko and Roslovic were big losses.

The loss is understandable. The poor efforts game over game aren't.

--------------------------
Also penalties are my thing to complain about.

Nylander has drawn 2 penalties all year. Matthews has drawn 6. Cowan has drawn 5. Matthews is the only player who has drawn more than 1 penalty more than they have taken.

25-14 penalty differential over the last 7 games.

Some of that is playstyle. Some of that is effort but its hard to win games when you are taking 1-2 more penalties than your opponent every game.

 

[YYZ]

That McWard feller looked better than any other Dman on the Leafs.

 

[rjd]

I don't think so
The odds makers didn't have those caveats for example
No discussion. Just odds:
ESPN Stanley Cup Odds
FanDuel Sports Odds

plus, for example ...
The Hockey News


Daily Faceoff


The very term "Bubble team" generally implies they might make the playoffs or they might not. Some of that relates to where they finished last season. Some of that was probably due to them being one of the oldest teams in the NHL and therefore, they are a higher risk for injuries or decline. Some of that was probably due to the uncertainty of which Matthews or Tanev they were going to get. Some of that was due to the uncertainty of the goaltending, etc, etc.

To begin the season, they were not regarded as a serious contender to win a Cup. They were regarded by many as a team that might or might not make the playoffs. That is roughly about where they are right now. It will probably get a little bleaker after the next 3 games against good teams. And it will probably brighten some after the easier 4 games that follow.
Welcome to the 2026-27 Leafs rollercoaster!!

I always thought that the term bubble team is a team that could make the playoffs by 1 to 5 points or miss the playoff by 1 to 5 points. A bubble team is in the mix but there are no guarantees either way.

Reading what you posted, I feel they support my argument. What I read those articles as saying is that being a bubble team is the ceiling for this team, if things go their way. If Bob plays well, if Matthews has a resurgence, if they can stay healthy then they should be in the mix to make the playoffs. If those things don't happen, then they aren't going to get to their ceiling. I'm not saying they are going to be the worst team in the league, but at this point, the Leafs look like a team that is going to finish with somewhere between 82 and 90 points. Ottawa made the last wildcard spot last season with 99 points, and it doesn't look like that number is going down this year given the strength of the Atlantic division.

They will look better when they get healthier and they are playing weaker opponents, but even if they look better I don't think that they will win enough to make up the ground that they lost. I don't feel that this team, even with the firepower they have, can reel off 8 wins in a row, or win 11 of 12, and at this point, it's probably going to take that for them to get back into the playoff conversation. They have too many weaknesses for that firepower to cover up.

What I don't understand is the lack of ability to play defence. Defence is systems and commitment. They don't seem to be able to play with that system and commitment at one end, and then turn it on at the other end. It's like collectively as a team, they think it's all or nothing. Either they make high skilled plays and generate offence, but get burned defensively, or they try and lock it down defensively and then generate nothing offensively. They have 0 transition game at the moment. I feel that if they could have figured that out sooner they wouldn't have lost some of the games that they have lost, and therefore would be in a better position right now. Even when they are fully healthy and clicking, I don't think they have enough to make up the ground they need to make up to be in that bubble conversation by the end of the year.

 

[ZBBM]

I did say that. I really did. Moral of the story: Don't say anything.

 

[Chris]

Before the season I thought the Leafs had a good chance to be a playoff team, if they stayed reasonably healthy (especially Tanev), Matthews returned to something closer to the Matthews of old (pretty much so far) and Bob played just a bit better than he did last year. I even thought they could do some damage in the playoffs if "playoff Bob" appeared. What I didn't expect was for the team defense to be so bad, even when they were mostly healthy. Now that injuries have struck they've really dug a hole and it is just getting deeper with every regulation loss.

I don't see how they're going to dig out of it. Even if everyone gets and stays healthy for a run, they just seem to be the same lackadaisical/inconsistent Leafs who only play parts of games. And of course, they still don't really seem emotionally invested (same as it ever was with a team led by Matthews/Tavares/Nylander). Other than Cowan, who is reminding me more and more of Kadri.

Also a bit disappointing is that McKenna seems really over-matched out there at even strength. Sure he makes the occasional great play, but that is more than offset by the Domi-like no look hope passes he throws around multiple times a game (including in/near his own end). I know he's only 18 and 160 pounds but I did expect he'd look better and be more impactful.