Flames @ Leafs - Dec 6, 7:30pm - SN

[Zee]

Leafs were horrible outside of Andersen but what a beauty shootout goal by Nylander

 

[Strangelove]

Boy is Matthews ever struggling. Even his puck handling is off. You can tell he?s pressing.

He seems to be a little off, but I think the bigger problem is that defenders are able to concentrate on Matthews because neither Hyman or Brown are really a threat to make a creative play with the puck. Need Nylander back on that line.

I agree that his linemates are likely not helping his performance but earlier in the season that didn?t matter.

But if Nylander starts one more game on the fourth line with Komarov, Hymen and Brown on the first and second lines. then Babcock is truly insane.

 

[princedpw]

Boy is Matthews ever struggling. Even his puck handling is off. You can tell he?s pressing.

He seems to be a little off, but I think the bigger problem is that defenders are able to concentrate on Matthews because neither Hyman or Brown are really a threat to make a creative play with the puck. Need Nylander back on that line.

I agree that his linemates are likely not helping his performance but earlier in the season that didn?t matter.

But if Nylander starts one more game on the fourth line with Komarov, Hymen and Brown on the first and second lines. then Babcock is truly insane.

Yeah, need Nylander back with him. Earlier in the season, Nylander would carry the puck into the offensive zone again and again for Matthews. They were great together.

 

[bustaheims]

He's going to get them to play like Detroit did, no matter what.  But he could still accomplish that by using the lineup more effectively.

Yup. And, I'm with him when it comes to teaching defensive responsibility, structure, etc . . . it's just that enforcing those things doesn't require constant line matching. They can learn those things without having to also be cognizant of needing to get off the ice because the other team made a line change.

 

[cabber24]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

 

[cabber24]

That ice played like crap. The number of pucks bouncing, changing directions and players losing edges and falling was like my beer league team.

Bad ice helped us big time on the Johnny hockey shootout attempt. If he scored it was over and the puck started to bounce on him and he lost it.

 

[cabber24]

Boy is Matthews ever struggling. Even his puck handling is off. You can tell he?s pressing.

He seems to be a little off, but I think the bigger problem is that defenders are able to concentrate on Matthews because neither Hyman or Brown are really a threat to make a creative play with the puck. Need Nylander back on that line.

He's loosing the puck with no one near him. I am not sure what's going on? We need those smooth hands back. He's struggling with the puck on his stick. Can't believe we're winning with our 3 best players struggling for extended periods of time and at the same time.

Just wanted to give Anderson a big THANK YOU for last nights 2 points. Absolutely scary good! I wish our team would get more angry at the Flames for all the net crashing. We have to protect Anderson. He has covered up a lot of shoddy play by the rest of the team for the better part of a month now.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/NHLPlayerSafety/status/938754480346222594
https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/938579304136527872

 

[Coco-puffs]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

 

[herman]

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

If we're talking about defensemen shooting from the point, they are definitely firing them wide-ish on purpose, which I would imagine throws off the Corsi-counters a bit. Some of the forwards are shooting for post-and-ins (cute shots).

 

[Frank E]

So, at what point does Babcock start considering that maybe he's part of the reason the team is getting off to such poor starts? I honestly believe his insistence on line matching is messing with the rhythm of a lot of his players, and forcing them to play catchup for most of the night.

Roll your lines. Deploy your players proactively, not reactively. Be in control. This team has the talent to do that, if you have the ability to let them.

Obviously, we don't really know his rationale on that stuff, but they sure seem to have trouble suppressing shots lately.

They don't really seem to be improving on that from the start of the season, still 3rd highest in the league in Shots Against.

Their PDO is 1st in the league over the past month, so that's where the record comes from, but there's a pretty big problem here that has nothing to do with when Nylander and Matthews will be reunited.

 

[Frank E]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

Do low danger shots turn into rebounds though, which can turn into high-danger shots?

The Leafs are allowing shots at an alarming rate, I posted above 3rd highest in the league, and I don't see that translating into a successful playoff run.

 

[Kin]

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm starting to think this Matthew Tkachuk may be a bad egg.

 

[Bender]

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm starting to think this Matthew Tkachuk may be a bad egg.

 

[herman]

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm starting to think this Matthew Tkachuk may be a bad egg.

Like Marchand, he has way too much skill to let this sort of thing be his defining characteristic.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

Do low danger shots turn into rebounds though, which can turn into high-danger shots?

The Leafs are allowing shots at an alarming rate, I posted above 3rd highest in the league, and I don't see that translating into a successful playoff run.

Well, yes, then they'd show up in the high-danger shot count wouldn't they?  Which would translate into higher xGA.  The Leafs do sit 3rd last in xGA/60- so you absolutely have a point that they aren't very strong defensively.  I don't think anyone would argue that.

But they also sit 2nd in xGF/60, and as I pointed out before, overall they sit at close to 52% xG%, which is 9th in the league.  That gives you information regarding how they have played so far- and their place in the standings isn't far off from 9th in the league (in terms of points percentage they are very close).

However, CF% still has more predictive value and them sitting middle of the league at 50.3% isn't great if you fancy them as a Stanley Cup contender.  They may begin to fall a bit in the standings if they keep playing the way they have, so we do have reason to be concerned that they aren't playing as well as they can.

Your original point was how this team feels like the '12-'13 Leafs.  They were a 44% CF & 43% xG team, which was awful.  There is a night and day difference here. 

 

[herman]

http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20426&view=limited

The heat map usually tells the tale in a more digestible form than the raw tables. Location-wise, we were good on offense (not great), and mostly okay on team defense. The bottom of our lineup was a mess.

 

[Chris]

He's loosing the puck with no one near him. I am not sure what's going on? We need those smooth hands back. He's struggling with the puck on his stick. Can't believe we're winning with our 3 best players struggling for extended periods of time and at the same time.

I think part of it is Matthews (perhaps still lingering effects of that injury, or maybe he's trying to do too much to compensate for his linemates) but part is that other teams have adjusted, they can play him tighter because neither Brown nor Hyman are really much of a threat like Nylander is. Hyman is a mucker, Brown a shooter. Nylander is a puck carrier and shooter, defenders must respect his skills more and that opens room for Matthews.

 

[Frank E]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

Do low danger shots turn into rebounds though, which can turn into high-danger shots?

The Leafs are allowing shots at an alarming rate, I posted above 3rd highest in the league, and I don't see that translating into a successful playoff run.

Well, yes, then they'd show up in the high-danger shot count wouldn't they?  Which would translate into higher xGA.  The Leafs do sit 3rd last in xGA/60- so you absolutely have a point that they aren't very strong defensively.  I don't think anyone would argue that.

But they also sit 2nd in xGF/60, and as I pointed out before, overall they sit at close to 52% xG%, which is 9th in the league.  That gives you information regarding how they have played so far- and their place in the standings isn't far off from 9th in the league (in terms of points percentage they are very close).

However, CF% still has more predictive value and them sitting middle of the league at 50.3% isn't great if you fancy them as a Stanley Cup contender.  They may begin to fall a bit in the standings if they keep playing the way they have, so we do have reason to be concerned that they aren't playing as well as they can.

Your original point was how this team feels like the '12-'13 Leafs.  They were a 44% CF & 43% xG team, which was awful.  There is a night and day difference here.

Thanks Coco.

Also, I didn't have an original point.  I don't usually have any points.

 

[cabber24]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

I am not into the stats as much as you are but I guess I should of just said I feel we're winning a lot more then we probably should have at this point in the season considering our play. I guess I'm old school and am confident in my observation to make this conclusion. I also know there is billion ways to interpret stats and if you look hard enough you can find both good and bad. I just don't care enough to do so. Does that make me untitled to opinion? I don't think so. I appreciate stats but at the same time they don't always tell the whole story. 5 years ago we could express an opinion without graphs, charts and acronyms. A billion variables go into every conclusion and a couple stats aren't the only reason for that conclusion. I am not attacking you I am just stating stats are a great tool for analysis but don't always tell the whole story.