Flames @ Leafs - Dec 6, 7:30pm - SN

[Coco-puffs]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

Do low danger shots turn into rebounds though, which can turn into high-danger shots?

The Leafs are allowing shots at an alarming rate, I posted above 3rd highest in the league, and I don't see that translating into a successful playoff run.

Well, yes, then they'd show up in the high-danger shot count wouldn't they?  Which would translate into higher xGA.  The Leafs do sit 3rd last in xGA/60- so you absolutely have a point that they aren't very strong defensively.  I don't think anyone would argue that.

But they also sit 2nd in xGF/60, and as I pointed out before, overall they sit at close to 52% xG%, which is 9th in the league.  That gives you information regarding how they have played so far- and their place in the standings isn't far off from 9th in the league (in terms of points percentage they are very close).

However, CF% still has more predictive value and them sitting middle of the league at 50.3% isn't great if you fancy them as a Stanley Cup contender.  They may begin to fall a bit in the standings if they keep playing the way they have, so we do have reason to be concerned that they aren't playing as well as they can.

Your original point was how this team feels like the '12-'13 Leafs.  They were a 44% CF & 43% xG team, which was awful.  There is a night and day difference here.

Thanks Coco.

Also, I didn't have an original point.  I don't usually have any points.

Sorry, thought it was cabber24 responding- I meant his original point.

 

[Chris]

I am not into the stats as much as you are but I guess I should of just said I feel we're winning a lot more then we probably should have at this point in the season considering our play. I guess I'm old school and am confident in my observation to make this conclusion. I also know there is billion ways to interpret stats and if you look hard enough you can find both good and bad. I just don't care enough to do so. Does that make me untitled to opinion? I don't think so. I appreciate stats but at the same time they don't always tell the whole story. 5 years ago we could express an opinion without graphs, charts and acronyms. A billion variables go into every conclusion and a couple stats aren't the only reason for that conclusion. I am not attacking you I am just stating stats are a great tool for analysis but don't always tell the whole story.

I'm not into most of the new stats either. I rely on what I see, and what I see is a team that is frequently outplayed for large stretches of games, and has relied on Andersen to steal points in quite a few games recently. Now, you can argue that the goalie is part of the team and that is true, but just like Connor Brown's shooting percentage is unsustainable, Andersen's recent play may also regress...and if that happens, we start losing a bunch of these games. The recent play does not seem like a sustainable model for long term success (and in that way, it does feel similar to that team a few years ago).

I think the hope is that Babcock is instilling a system that is meant to do better in the playoffs, or when the players become better at it (or when some of the pieces are replaced). In any case, it's not great to watch right now, even when the team manages to eke out a point or two in a game they by all rights could have (or should have) lost.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Feels a little like the lockout shorten season 2012-2013. Winning games while the stats tell a different story. Are we really as good as standings show? Doesn't feel or look like it.

t

The "stats" are nowhere near as bad as you are making them out to be.  Nowhere close to the '12-13 season.  Leafs sit at 50.3% CF which is average for the NHL.  For expected goals, which takes into account shot quality, they sit at 51.9% which is 9th in the league. 

Even a game like last night is a bit misleading when you look at the shot clock.  It looks like they got completely dominated.  Yet, the 5v5 CF% was still 47.9%.  Breaking down the overall shots based on quality:

High Danger:  12-9 Flames.
Medium Danger:  16-16 (Tied)
Low Danger:  20-4 Flames

If you take away the low danger shots from the 48-29 "dominance", the Leafs were outshot 28-25. 

My main complaint about the Leafs this season is how often they are missing the net or having their shots blocked.  Last night they had 24 shot attempts blocked and missed the net on another 21 of them.  This seems to be a bit of a recurring theme.  Not going to score if you can't hit the net 60% of the time you try and shoot.

I am not into the stats as much as you are but I guess I should of just said I feel we're winning a lot more then we probably should have at this point in the season considering our play. I guess I'm old school and am confident in my observation to make this conclusion. I also know there is billion ways to interpret stats and if you look hard enough you can find both good and bad. I just don't care enough to do so. Does that make me untitled to opinion? I don't think so. I appreciate stats but at the same time they don't always tell the whole story. 5 years ago we could express an opinion without graphs, charts and acronyms. A billion variables go into every conclusion and a couple stats aren't the only reason for that conclusion. I am not attacking you I am just stating stats are a great tool for analysis but don't always tell the whole story.

Yeah, there are three things I think make people feel like the Leafs are winning more than they probably should have:

1.  Lots of bad starts.  I feel like when they start poorly, even if they pickup their game and start to take over as the game goes on, fans still remember the bad start and feel like they got lucky to get out of it or whatnot.  Perception at the end of the game is they played poorly due to the bad start, but overall they were decent or good.

2.  On broadcasts, they only show shots on net counts.  The Leafs sit at 47.8% shot-on-net share so far this season (averaging 29.7 shots for, 32.5 shots against per game).  As I said before, they are having lots of shots get blocked and missing the net a lot.  Possession wise they are almost even and xG they are a Top 10 team.  So, rudimentary stats on the broadcast lean towards the Leafs not being as good as the advanced stuff says.

3.  A number of games we got dominated and still won.  Carolina, Detroit, LA (1st one), Minny, and Boston (2nd one) really stand out.  Early against Winnipeg we looked awful and then scored 3 quick ones.

Then again, we've dominated a few games and lost too:  Canucks, Capitals (2nd one), Coyotes, Devils (1st one)
 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The bad starts definitely leave a bad taste in my mouth and while I appreciate the Leafs often take over a game, I feel like it's a really bad habit to get into.

When the games get tighter, the final 25 games and playoffs, you simply cannot play from behind every single night, teams are too good and grinding too hard.

Does it speaks to a lack of professionalism?

I'm not sure if it's arrogance or immaturity from some of them.

I'd be more willing to understand if I thought it was exclusively just an issue with the youngsters still learning, but guys like Bozak, Komarov and JVR have no excuse, especially in contract years.

Also, we are in year three of the Babcock era, how long do the media continue to give him a pass for icing a sub-optimal lineup? I really like the guy, I've read his book and watched him speak a lot, but he needs to be challenged on his roster decisions.

I know the theory of the off the glass and out transition to onrushing forwards, but when it doesn't work it makes the team look like a Randy Carlyle squad having an off night, Babcock and his team need to have more strings to their bow.

Watching Brown and Hyman blow the zone every time it looked remotely like the Leafs were about to gain possession last night was brutal, the Flames read it almost everytime and completely nullified that line.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/NHLPlayerSafety/status/938754480346222594
https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/938579304136527872

One game suspension.
https://www.nhl.com/video/tkachuck-suspended-one-game/c-55467603

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/177975/2017/12/07/bourne-10-little-maple-leafs-things-from-their-victory-over-the-flames/

For a taste:

Y'know what fascinates me about Auston Matthews, aside from his amazing talent, size, demeanor, background? The guy doesn't hit. Anyone. And he's 6-foot-3, 216. I watched this play below and thought, with his speed, at his size, he could've murdered this guy.

But it's kinda good he doesn't! For one, it helps him stay generally healthy. He saves his energy to actually play hockey. He doesn't piss guys off and make enemies. He's generally unflappable. He must be so frustrating to play because he embodies the phrase ?never let 'em see you sweat.?

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://theathletic.com/177975/2017/12/07/bourne-10-little-maple-leafs-things-from-their-victory-over-the-flames/

For a taste:

Y'know what fascinates me about Auston Matthews, aside from his amazing talent, size, demeanor, background? The guy doesn't hit. Anyone. And he's 6-foot-3, 216. I watched this play below and thought, with his speed, at his size, he could've murdered this guy.

But it's kinda good he doesn't! For one, it helps him stay generally healthy. He saves his energy to actually play hockey. He doesn't piss guys off and make enemies. He's generally unflappable. He must be so frustrating to play because he embodies the phrase ?never let 'em see you sweat.?

DUDE!  You left out the best part!!!

Would I like to see him tee someone up? Sure, I'm a neanderthal. Should he? I'm gonna say things are going just fine for him as is.

 

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/NHLPlayerSafety/status/938754480346222594
https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/938579304136527872

One game suspension.
https://www.nhl.com/video/tkachuck-suspended-one-game/c-55467603

They should've added few games just for general stupidity. Did he really think no one would see that on a replay? That no cameras would be focused on a scrum after the whistle?

 

[Frank E]

Guy who has already been suspended twice in his 1.3 year NHL career spears a player on the ice while he's on the bench =  1 game.

I don't even know what to say, but one game isn't going to send any kind of message to this repeat offender. 

 

[bustaheims]

Guy who has already been suspended twice in his 1.3 year NHL career spears a player on the ice while he's on the bench =  1 game.

I don't even know what to say, but one game isn't going to send any kind of message to this repeat offender.

Agreed. If leaving the bench to get involved comes with a standard 10 game suspension, getting involved from the bench should be similar.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

i know the popular thing seems to think the leafs slow starts are due to a lack of preparation but I tend to think of it more like they adapt to teams.  The fact that they score a lot of third period goals seems to be a sign of that.  In either case they seem to outlast a lot of teams.  I also don't like how many nights they get outshot but to say this is the kessel team i think is a mistake.  even from the eye test that team had little ability to close out a game.  Last year this team seemed to drop a lot of games when the other team came back on them but they seemed to get passed that.  It's now to the point where it's frustrating to watch the leafs squander a lead but I no longer think that means they'll actually lose the game.  They've got work to do but I think just like last year they'll get better as the season goes on..of course so will a lot of other teams.

 

[disco]

https://theathletic.com/177975/2017/12/07/bourne-10-little-maple-leafs-things-from-their-victory-over-the-flames/

For a taste:

Y'know what fascinates me about Auston Matthews, aside from his amazing talent, size, demeanor, background? The guy doesn't hit. Anyone. And he's 6-foot-3, 216. I watched this play below and thought, with his speed, at his size, he could've murdered this guy.

But it's kinda good he doesn't! For one, it helps him stay generally healthy. He saves his energy to actually play hockey. He doesn't piss guys off and make enemies. He's generally unflappable. He must be so frustrating to play because he embodies the phrase ?never let 'em see you sweat.?

Matty's totally like Mats. When he got older Sundin would use the body positioning in the playoffs. It was real fun to watch. I think Auston will be the same way.

 

[Bullfrog]

They should've added few games just for general stupidity. Did he really think no one would see that on a replay? That no cameras would be focused on a scrum after the whistle?

You're assuming they're thinking when they do things like that.