Florida interested in Kessel

[Redleaf]

There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.  :

I don't know how much of that is sarcastic but I wasn't saying that I thought he might get significantly worse, just that he, like all players, is at danger every game from suffering a significant injury. That's not the biggest concern in the world but it is something to consider.

l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

I would take the gamble and hold off trading him until he returns to the Kessel that plays like one of the top goal scorers in the league. If you are scouting him lately , you certainly are not seeing that side of his game right now.

 

[Kin]

l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

If a team is trading for Kessel with 7 years left on his deal they're not going to be overly swayed by a bad stretch of games from him. They know his value. Even if not, if he were the kind of player where a bad 15+ game stretch would significantly affect his value then to be honest it really cuts down your idea that he's worth a ton to begin with. Teams aren't stupid. They know what he does.

But with all that said, nobody is saying he needs to be dealt immediately. I personally think the summer is the best time for a major trade like that and the draft especially.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I agree. I'm just talking equal value. I'd rather not be fleeced on a deal for Kessel. If they aren't even willing to consider one of their young stars, then whats the point, really?

The point is that you're starting from scratch and you need to turn the assets on the team into the best possible return. That doesn't mean Florida necessarily but there will come a point where the Leafs will have to go with the best offer, whatever it is.

Sure, but the Leafs can also afford to wait until the right offer comes. They don't need to sell to the highest bidder this instant, no matter what the return.

But if this draft is as strong as is being suggested, they really shouldn't wait.  The point is to stockpile as many 1st and 2nd round picks as possible prior to the draft.  The other thing coming back in any Kessel deal is $8 million in cap space, and an (addition by subtraction) nitro booster for the tank.

The more I think about it (not even that long) I'm starting to agree with this line of thinking.

Kessel was acquired for two 1sts and a 2nd. A 1st this year, a good prospect like Huberdeau or Bjugstad (who were first rounders), 8M in cap space and our own pick getting better by subtraction this year and next are all reasons to make the deal sooner rather than later. I'd look to add a 2nd as well.

1st, 2nd, Bjugstad/Huberdeau is basically what we traded for Kessel (before the 1st became the #2 overall). That's probably about the best we'll do.

EDIT: Meant to quote Nik's post about a 5 year re-build and Columbus going nowhere for 10.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

There's also a risk that Kessel will get worse.  How many more summers can he go without skating before he starts to slow?  He could turn into Kyle Wellwood.  :

I don't know how much of that is sarcastic but I wasn't saying that I thought he might get significantly worse, just that he, like all players, is at danger every game from suffering a significant injury. That's not the biggest concern in the world but it is something to consider.

I was being a little sarcastic, but not toward you.  I really think there will come a time when Kessel's lack of conditioning will catch up with him and his production and speed will start to decline.  And I think that will happen sooner than later, and before the Leafs are ready to contend.  And your point about the potential of injury is a good one.  I would really hate to look back and see a lost opportunity to gather assets this year, given that he can likely fetch a good return.  And the cap space doesn't hurt either.

 

[Redleaf]

l guess if you want to get  the lowest possible return on Kessel you trade him now, when he has looked his absolute worse since coming to the Leafs. I don't think you get maximum value on him until he at least returns to form.

If a team is trading for Kessel with 7 years left on his deal they're not going to be overly swayed by a bad stretch of games from him. They know his value. Even if not, if he were the kind of player where a bad 15+ game stretch would significantly affect his value then to be honest it really cuts down your idea that he's worth a ton to begin with. Teams aren't stupid. They know what he does.

But with all that said, nobody is saying he needs to be dealt immediately. I personally think the summer is the best time for a major trade like that and the draft especially.

Even smart GMs have short term memory sometimes

 

[Kin]

Even smart GMs have short term memory sometimes

Some might but in theory there will be multiple teams interested in Kessel and, again, nobody is seriously advocating trading him by the deadline or bust. Just that you can't hold on to him forever in the hopes that a trade that's no more likely to come in the future than now materializes.

 

[Chris]

At some point you just have to pull the trigger and make the best deal available. I have to wonder how much of his current "slump" could be due to conditioning (or lack thereof) and I'm sure other GMs are wondering that as well. But with the team overall in such a tailspin, it's hard to partition out the blame among conditioning, apathy, coaching/system, linemates, etc. It's not as if Bozak and JVR are helping much.

Wanted to ask if Howard Berger is considered a joke? He wrote a blog post today advocating a Kessel for Florida's first and Brad Boyes, claiming that getting Florida's first alone makes it worth it. I LOL'd when I read it - has to be a joke, right?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I was being a little sarcastic, but not toward you.  I really think there will come a time when Kessel's lack of conditioning will catch up with him and his production and speed will start to decline.  And I think that will happen sooner than later, and before the Leafs are ready to contend.  And your point about the potential of injury is a good one.  I would really hate to look back and see a lost opportunity to gather assets this year, given that he can likely fetch a good return.  And the cap space doesn't hurt either.

He doesn't have a lack of conditioning, or at least none that's been documented.  Around training camp Cox tweeted about Kessel being among the best in the Leafs' fitness testing.

 

[Madferret]

What are the specifics regarding Kessel's limited NTC again? The one thing I would be concerned with - especially if the Leafs are serious about trading Kessel, would be if he flipped the script and went to the media with a trade demand - that would be a disaster.

As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market. Undoubtably one of the better goal scorers in the league but that's about where it ends - if he's not scoring he's hardly noticeable. If I'm a Leaf fan I don't know how crazy I'd be about anything Florida has to offer either. I also think Nonis & Shanahan should not say anything more to the media about trading him - they don't want to start giving off the impression that they're desperate to trade him.

 

[Kin]

As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market.

I think the bar has been set at Alex Chiasson, Nick Paul, Alex Guptill and a second.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

As far as returns go for Kessel I'm still not sure what a one dimensional player with a questionable work ethic should expect to return on the trade market.

I think the bar has been set at Alex Chiasson, Nick Paul, Alex Guptill and a second.

Pipe dream.

 

[Bullfrog]

Zdeno Chara, Bill Muckalt, and a top 3 pick?

 

[Kin]

I mean, at worst if Kessel does demand a trade you have to figure on at least Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd.

 

[Andy007]

Kessel, Nylander and a 1st for Hoffman?

 

[Madferret]

The only thing Kessel has in common with Spezza is his hairline.

 

[Kin]

It's a fair point. Spezza never scored 35 in a season.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

True, one's an Olympic medalist.

 

[Madferret]

Same amount of times Kessel has put up over 84 pts in a season.

 

[Madferret]

Like the Olympics mean anything : How many Spengler Cups has Kessel won?

 

[Kin]

Kessel's also younger, signed to a long-term contract and didn't ask out of where he's currently playing the way Spezza and so many Senators before him have.

So in retrospect they're not all that much alike. Like I said, it's a low bar.